Aside from Clemson and Florida State wanting to leave the ACC for the SEC (more than likely), will the ACC suffer the same fate as the PAC, or is it just alot of much ado about nothing?

(03-26-2024 09:05 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Aside from Clemson and Florida State wanting to leave the ACC for the SEC (more than likely), will the ACC suffer the same fate as the PAC, or is it just alot of much ado about nothing?

Even assuming that some of the existing membership leaves, there are many other institutions that the ACC could draw upon to join its membership. AAC and Big 12 members like South Florida and West Virginia might be poised to take advantage of such upheaval.

The Pac-12 had no viable institutions to draw upon to improve it's media rights deal, which is why it imploded. Because the ACC has options, there may be transitions, but not outright implosion of the conference.

(03-26-2024 09:05 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Aside from Clemson and Florida State wanting to leave the ACC for the SEC (more than likely), will the ACC suffer the same fate as the PAC, or is it just alot of much ado about nothing?

Remains to be seen.

So its not a lot of much ado about nothing. Everything is up in the air over the next few years, not just the fate of the ACC.

No, they have too many members to go away like like the Pac did.

Each conference's chaos is unique, to a degree. Even the B1G and SEC could be hit some day -- imagine this site if an S1 forms and takes away the most valuable half of the programs from those two.

For the ACC, a lot is riding on whether ESPN exercises their option or not. And, of course, if FSU, CU, and/or UNC, etc. leave.

(03-26-2024 09:41 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  Each conference's chaos is unique, to a degree. Even the B1G and SEC could be hit some day -- imagine this site if an S1 forms and takes away the most valuable half of the programs from those two.

For the ACC, a lot is riding on whether ESPN exercises their option or not. And, of course, if FSU, CU, and/or UNC, etc. leave.

I fear we are heading towards a P1 conference.

The ACC will lose members but will remain a viable conference with regional teams as replacement options. Don't see the PAC total collapse coming.

(03-26-2024 09:05 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Aside from Clemson and Florida State wanting to leave the ACC for the SEC (more than likely), will the ACC suffer the same fate as the PAC, or is it just alot of much ado about nothing?

The ACC will come out the other side in much better shape than the PAC, though I’d call this much ado about something.

(03-26-2024 09:09 PM)rtist Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:05 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Aside from Clemson and Florida State wanting to leave the ACC for the SEC (more than likely), will the ACC suffer the same fate as the PAC, or is it just alot of much ado about nothing?

Even assuming that some of the existing membership leaves, there are many other institutions that the ACC could draw upon to join its membership. AAC and Big 12 members like South Florida and West Virginia might be poised to take advantage of such upheaval.

The Pac-12 had no viable institutions to draw upon to improve it's media rights deal, which is why it imploded. Because the ACC has options, there may be transitions, but not outright implosion of the conference.

LIKE ^^^

B12
Cincinnati
UCF
WVU

AAC
Memphis
Tulane
USF

Nobody knows for sure because a legal case is involved, so pundits typically say the ACC would implode if FSU/Clemson can leave without much consequence.

At this point, it’s all speculation.

I am a big believer in the GoR. So my own prediction/speculation is as follows:

1. The buyout amount would be more than $500 million.

2. FSU/Clemson agree to pay and leave, most likely for the B10.

3. UNC decides to stay for now.

4. ESPN renews the ACC contract, potentially agreeing to reduced payments. (Remember, ESPN’s choice is not binary between paying the same amount and completely dropping the ACC contract).

5. The ACC backfills sometime after FSU/Clemson leave but before 2030.

6. Sometime in the 2030s, UNC and NC State leave for the SEC.

7. The ACC backfills again.

8. If ND wants to join the B10, they would do so in 2036. But by 2036, the separation between the P and the M may be irrecoverably wide.

Again, this is just my speculation but I expect the ACC will experience gradual attrition similar to what the B12 went through, as opposed to a sudden mass exodus like what happened to the P12.

(03-26-2024 10:12 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:41 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  Each conference's chaos is unique, to a degree. Even the B1G and SEC could be hit some day -- imagine this site if an S1 forms and takes away the most valuable half of the programs from those two.

For the ACC, a lot is riding on whether ESPN exercises their option or not. And, of course, if FSU, CU, and/or UNC, etc. leave.

I fear we are heading towards a P1 conference.

You might head toward 1 League with 2 conferences, but Big 10 vs SEC sells way to well to screw it up with true P1.

I think the ACC will lose between 1 to 3 members initially and will have already covered them with Cal, Stanford and SMU. If one leaves USF is in if that one is FSU. If Clemson and FSU leave they add one more, maybe UConn. If 3 leave add West Virginia and the Big 12 loses an outlier and WVU gets games to which their fans can easily travel.

As long as N.D. stays independent things in the ACC will stabilize.

I dont see it. FSU barely brings anything and the rest of the schools don't bring anything other than population, which matters less and less every year. For instance, would adding Clemson bring the Big 12 more money? Probably not, so why would it do much for the Big 10 or SEC?

The new reality is this: Moving to a new conference is not the big money boost that it would have been a couple of years ago. Just look at Washington and Oregon, Stanford, Cal and SMU.
If any schools end up leaving the ACC, would those schools get a full share from the SEC, B1G, or even the Big 12?

In a declining market why would FOX or ESPN want to increase their overhead?
Why would the SEC or B1G choose to make their pots bigger only to dilute any earnings (increases or decreases) in the future?
Would ESPN jeopardize losing it's advertising portal to the mid-west (Notre Dame) if they were to duplicate markets in Florida and South Carolina?
Currently ESPN earns between $175-200 Million in profit per year from the ACCN, which is projected to increase significantly with the addition of in State rates in California and Texas. Do they really want to forego those earnings?

The PAC owned it's own network so the loss of the conference did not affect the B1G or ESPN. ESPN owns the ACCN, so what happens to the ACC directly affects ESPN

So many questions. Mostly from a business side and not directly related to the schools that are involved. Money questions.
Once you make a move...........well, you can't uncook a steak.

(03-27-2024 12:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 10:12 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:41 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  Each conference's chaos is unique, to a degree. Even the B1G and SEC could be hit some day -- imagine this site if an S1 forms and takes away the most valuable half of the programs from those two.

For the ACC, a lot is riding on whether ESPN exercises their option or not. And, of course, if FSU, CU, and/or UNC, etc. leave.

I fear we are heading towards a P1 conference.

You might head toward 1 League with 2 conferences, but Big 10 vs SEC sells way to well to screw it up with true P1.

I think the ACC will lose between 1 to 3 members initially and will have already covered them with Cal, Stanford and SMU. If one leaves USF is in if that one is FSU. If Clemson and FSU leave they add one more, maybe UConn. If 3 leave add West Virginia and the Big 12 loses an outlier and WVU gets games to which their fans can easily travel.

As long as N.D. stays independent things in the ACC will stabilize.

100% Agree with JR

(03-26-2024 10:44 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:09 PM)rtist Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:05 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Aside from Clemson and Florida State wanting to leave the ACC for the SEC (more than likely), will the ACC suffer the same fate as the PAC, or is it just alot of much ado about nothing?

Even assuming that some of the existing membership leaves, there are many other institutions that the ACC could draw upon to join its membership. AAC and Big 12 members like South Florida and West Virginia might be poised to take advantage of such upheaval.

The Pac-12 had no viable institutions to draw upon to improve it's media rights deal, which is why it imploded. Because the ACC has options, there may be transitions, but not outright implosion of the conference.

LIKE ^^^

B12
Cincinnati
UCF
WVU

AAC
Memphis
Tulane
USF

It is very unlikely the three mentioned from the Big XII move to the ACC, first the cost would be too high, second why would you leave for a water downed league?

(03-27-2024 06:41 AM)True Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 10:44 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:09 PM)rtist Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:05 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Aside from Clemson and Florida State wanting to leave the ACC for the SEC (more than likely), will the ACC suffer the same fate as the PAC, or is it just alot of much ado about nothing?

Even assuming that some of the existing membership leaves, there are many other institutions that the ACC could draw upon to join its membership. AAC and Big 12 members like South Florida and West Virginia might be poised to take advantage of such upheaval.

The Pac-12 had no viable institutions to draw upon to improve it's media rights deal, which is why it imploded. Because the ACC has options, there may be transitions, but not outright implosion of the conference.

LIKE ^^^

B12
Cincinnati
UCF
WVU

AAC
Memphis
Tulane
USF

It is very unlikely the three mentioned from the Big XII move to the ACC, first the cost would be too high, second why would you leave for a water downed league?

Texas, aTM, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Missouri

Which league is watered down again?

No. There isn't enough space in the P2 for the ACC to collapse. The Pac-12 teams filled a lot of that space.

The ACC is not going to implode. Though it may change a great deal.
Let say SEC/Big grab 6 and B12 4. They still have everything they need to rebuild.
17-10= 7 leftovers. Add Sd state, Wa State, Or State out west(possibly Col state) to make travel easier.

USF, Tulane, Memphis, you are back to 14, and clearly the best conference outside the p3. Only question would be do you get a little P4 cred? Maybe you could hold on to one auto bid, and bigger share of $$ than the rest of g5.

If they could manage a TV deal 12+ mil get a 8 to10% share of playoff $$ plus one guaranteed auto bid, they still are in a pretty decent position.

(03-27-2024 06:53 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 06:41 AM)True Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 10:44 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:09 PM)rtist Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:05 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Aside from Clemson and Florida State wanting to leave the ACC for the SEC (more than likely), will the ACC suffer the same fate as the PAC, or is it just alot of much ado about nothing?

Even assuming that some of the existing membership leaves, there are many other institutions that the ACC could draw upon to join its membership. AAC and Big 12 members like South Florida and West Virginia might be poised to take advantage of such upheaval.

The Pac-12 had no viable institutions to draw upon to improve it's media rights deal, which is why it imploded. Because the ACC has options, there may be transitions, but not outright implosion of the conference.

LIKE ^^^

B12
Cincinnati
UCF
WVU

AAC
Memphis
Tulane
USF

It is very unlikely the three mentioned from the Big XII move to the ACC, first the cost would be too high, second why would you leave for a water downed league?

Texas, aTM, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Missouri

Which league is watered down again?

I dont think they were referring to the current ACC but the ACC without FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami, UVA, and probably Duke, and NC ST. The remaining members of the ACC at that point are a lesser collection of teams compared to what the Big XII was before their resurrection.

(03-27-2024 06:41 AM)True Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 10:44 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:09 PM)rtist Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 09:05 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  Aside from Clemson and Florida State wanting to leave the ACC for the SEC (more than likely), will the ACC suffer the same fate as the PAC, or is it just alot of much ado about nothing?

Even assuming that some of the existing membership leaves, there are many other institutions that the ACC could draw upon to join its membership. AAC and Big 12 members like South Florida and West Virginia might be poised to take advantage of such upheaval.

The Pac-12 had no viable institutions to draw upon to improve it's media rights deal, which is why it imploded. Because the ACC has options, there may be transitions, but not outright implosion of the conference.

LIKE ^^^

B12
Cincinnati
UCF
WVU

AAC
Memphis
Tulane
USF

It is very unlikely the three mentioned from the Big XII move to the ACC, first the cost would be too high, second why would you leave for a water downed league?

Correct. That would make no sense, financially or otherwise. If the ACC looses FSU, Clemson, UNC plus one more, why would Louisville want to stay in the ACC? At that point the Big12 would look very inviting to Pitt. If Louisville and Pitt want to leave Syracuse would want to join them. If VT doesn't get a P2 invite they likely also head over. At that point even Duke would have to join such an amalgamation of basketball powers in the Big12 because not doing so means they get left behind in a second rate basketball conference. This is why the collapse of the ACC could be PAC-like. The ACC mid-tier schools could bum rush the exit door.