I'm starting to come around to the idea that the SEC will add FSU and Clemson only, with contracts that require the rest of the ACC schools to stay in place until some future date, at which point the league would have the unilateral option of extending its contracts beyond that time to insure its long term survival as a power conference.

With both SEC and B1G at 18, neither of them expand further for the remainder of their existing media deals.

(04-15-2024 10:04 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm starting to come around to the idea that the SEC will add FSU and Clemson only, with contracts that require the rest of the ACC schools to stay in place until some future date, at which point the league would have the unilateral option of extending its contracts beyond that time to insure its long term survival as a power conference.

With both SEC and B1G at 16, neither of them expand further for the remainder of their existing media deals.

18, but yes, I agree with you.

(04-14-2024 03:08 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The B12 and ACC will swap nothing. If ACC loses 4 or 6 to P2 they are a hot mess. Question is can B12 go fishing too. My guess is yes. ESPN will drop ACC or renegotiate.

B12 likely grabs 4 more from ACC.

I'm not sure where the fatality line is. I can say with some confidence losing two isn't fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded SEC 24 out of 7 ACC schools and Kansas or 8 ACC schools is fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded B1G 24 out of 6 ACC schools which are NOT FSU/Clemson is fatal.

The difficulty comes in actually being able to peel off smaller units than that.

Potential state mandated "you must take both" deals: UVA-VT, UNC-NCST. These present no real issue to the SEC. There could be heartburn for the B1G since VT and NCST are not AAU and are not expected to be soon.

North Carolina is very baggage heavy. They'd prefer to run the country club in the ACC, but even the Rams Club can only go so far to close the TV money gap. UNC may have state required baggage of NCST. They have a strong preference for UVA to come along, which could bring along additional state required baggage in VT. They also have a strong preference to play GT. You're talking about maybe as many as 5 teams being the minimum unit to pry UNC free.


The easiest teams to pry away individually in the ACC are:

Florida State: No issues SEC, not AAU but far easier to bring in than Nebraska

Clemson: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, not AAU and not plausibly AAU either

Virginia: No issues SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... increasingly culturally aligned with the B1G)

Duke: Vandy issues joining SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... always has been culturally aligned with the B1G

Georgia Tech: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, AAU and has already said no to the B1G if they're the only southern team and the ACC is still viable. But is only one other southern team like Duke or Virginia enough? With these revenue disparities, probably.


In a world where the ACC is still deemed viable enough to appease UNC ... I don't see anybody other than those teams being willing to move solo and actually be desired in either P2. SEC can take max 3 (and looks poised to take 2 of those 3 soon). B1G can take max 3. In so doing though UNC might no longer be appeased by what is left in the ACC.

If you're willing to take the 5 team UNC baggage riddled nucleus in one go, there's no friction to either P2 and the ACC implodes quickly thereafter.

(04-15-2024 11:20 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-14-2024 03:08 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The B12 and ACC will swap nothing. If ACC loses 4 or 6 to P2 they are a hot mess. Question is can B12 go fishing too. My guess is yes. ESPN will drop ACC or renegotiate.

B12 likely grabs 4 more from ACC.

I'm not sure where the fatality line is. I can say with some confidence losing two isn't fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded SEC 24 out of 7 ACC schools and Kansas or 8 ACC schools is fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded B1G 24 out of 6 ACC schools which are NOT FSU/Clemson is fatal.

The difficulty comes in actually being able to peel off smaller units than that.

Potential state mandated "you must take both" deals: UVA-VT, UNC-NCST. These present no real issue to the SEC. There could be heartburn for the B1G since VT and NCST are not AAU and are not expected to be soon.

North Carolina is very baggage heavy. They'd prefer to run the country club in the ACC, but even the Rams Club can only go so far to close the TV money gap. UNC may have state required baggage of NCST. They have a strong preference for UVA to come along, which could bring along additional state required baggage in VT. They also have a strong preference to play GT. You're talking about maybe as many as 5 teams being the minimum unit to pry UNC free.


The easiest teams to pry away individually in the ACC are:

Florida State: No issues SEC, not AAU but far easier to bring in than Nebraska

Clemson: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, not AAU and not plausibly AAU either

Virginia: No issues SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... increasingly culturally aligned with the B1G)

Duke: Vandy issues joining SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... always has been culturally aligned with the B1G

Georgia Tech: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, AAU and has already said no to the B1G if they're the only southern team and the ACC is still viable. But is only one other southern team like Duke or Virginia enough? With these revenue disparities, probably.


In a world where the ACC is still deemed viable enough to appease UNC ... I don't see anybody other than those teams being willing to move solo and actually be desired in either P2. SEC can take max 3 (and looks poised to take 2 of those 3 soon). B1G can take max 3. In so doing though UNC might no longer be appeased by what is left in the ACC.

If you're willing to take the 5 team UNC baggage riddled nucleus in one go, there's no friction to either P2 and the ACC implodes quickly thereafter.

Even if the NC/VA schools all leave, an ACC with a core of ND, plus Pittsburgh/Syracuse/BC, GT, and Miami, (not to mention Stanford and Cal), can continue on, and has backfill options.

(04-15-2024 10:32 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 10:04 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm starting to come around to the idea that the SEC will add FSU and Clemson only, with contracts that require the rest of the ACC schools to stay in place until some future date, at which point the league would have the unilateral option of extending its contracts beyond that time to insure its long term survival as a power conference.

With both SEC and B1G at 16, neither of them expand further for the remainder of their existing media deals.

18, but yes, I agree with you.

Thanks for pointing out my error. What was I thinking?

(04-15-2024 01:24 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 11:20 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-14-2024 03:08 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The B12 and ACC will swap nothing. If ACC loses 4 or 6 to P2 they are a hot mess. Question is can B12 go fishing too. My guess is yes. ESPN will drop ACC or renegotiate.

B12 likely grabs 4 more from ACC.

I'm not sure where the fatality line is. I can say with some confidence losing two isn't fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded SEC 24 out of 7 ACC schools and Kansas or 8 ACC schools is fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded B1G 24 out of 6 ACC schools which are NOT FSU/Clemson is fatal.

The difficulty comes in actually being able to peel off smaller units than that.

Potential state mandated "you must take both" deals: UVA-VT, UNC-NCST. These present no real issue to the SEC. There could be heartburn for the B1G since VT and NCST are not AAU and are not expected to be soon.

North Carolina is very baggage heavy. They'd prefer to run the country club in the ACC, but even the Rams Club can only go so far to close the TV money gap. UNC may have state required baggage of NCST. They have a strong preference for UVA to come along, which could bring along additional state required baggage in VT. They also have a strong preference to play GT. You're talking about maybe as many as 5 teams being the minimum unit to pry UNC free.


The easiest teams to pry away individually in the ACC are:

Florida State: No issues SEC, not AAU but far easier to bring in than Nebraska

Clemson: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, not AAU and not plausibly AAU either

Virginia: No issues SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... increasingly culturally aligned with the B1G)

Duke: Vandy issues joining SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... always has been culturally aligned with the B1G

Georgia Tech: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, AAU and has already said no to the B1G if they're the only southern team and the ACC is still viable. But is only one other southern team like Duke or Virginia enough? With these revenue disparities, probably.


In a world where the ACC is still deemed viable enough to appease UNC ... I don't see anybody other than those teams being willing to move solo and actually be desired in either P2. SEC can take max 3 (and looks poised to take 2 of those 3 soon). B1G can take max 3. In so doing though UNC might no longer be appeased by what is left in the ACC.

If you're willing to take the 5 team UNC baggage riddled nucleus in one go, there's no friction to either P2 and the ACC implodes quickly thereafter.

Even if the NC/VA schools all leave, an ACC with a core of ND, plus Pittsburgh/Syracuse/BC, GT, and Miami, (not to mention Stanford and Cal), can continue on, and has backfill options.

Is it really the ACC if it is a definitive majority of old Big East teams at that point? Who are you back filling FSU with? USF. Another oBE team.

(04-15-2024 06:47 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 01:24 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 11:20 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-14-2024 03:08 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The B12 and ACC will swap nothing. If ACC loses 4 or 6 to P2 they are a hot mess. Question is can B12 go fishing too. My guess is yes. ESPN will drop ACC or renegotiate.

B12 likely grabs 4 more from ACC.

I'm not sure where the fatality line is. I can say with some confidence losing two isn't fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded SEC 24 out of 7 ACC schools and Kansas or 8 ACC schools is fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded B1G 24 out of 6 ACC schools which are NOT FSU/Clemson is fatal.

The difficulty comes in actually being able to peel off smaller units than that.

Potential state mandated "you must take both" deals: UVA-VT, UNC-NCST. These present no real issue to the SEC. There could be heartburn for the B1G since VT and NCST are not AAU and are not expected to be soon.

North Carolina is very baggage heavy. They'd prefer to run the country club in the ACC, but even the Rams Club can only go so far to close the TV money gap. UNC may have state required baggage of NCST. They have a strong preference for UVA to come along, which could bring along additional state required baggage in VT. They also have a strong preference to play GT. You're talking about maybe as many as 5 teams being the minimum unit to pry UNC free.


The easiest teams to pry away individually in the ACC are:

Florida State: No issues SEC, not AAU but far easier to bring in than Nebraska

Clemson: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, not AAU and not plausibly AAU either

Virginia: No issues SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... increasingly culturally aligned with the B1G)

Duke: Vandy issues joining SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... always has been culturally aligned with the B1G

Georgia Tech: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, AAU and has already said no to the B1G if they're the only southern team and the ACC is still viable. But is only one other southern team like Duke or Virginia enough? With these revenue disparities, probably.


In a world where the ACC is still deemed viable enough to appease UNC ... I don't see anybody other than those teams being willing to move solo and actually be desired in either P2. SEC can take max 3 (and looks poised to take 2 of those 3 soon). B1G can take max 3. In so doing though UNC might no longer be appeased by what is left in the ACC.

If you're willing to take the 5 team UNC baggage riddled nucleus in one go, there's no friction to either P2 and the ACC implodes quickly thereafter.

Even if the NC/VA schools all leave, an ACC with a core of ND, plus Pittsburgh/Syracuse/BC, GT, and Miami, (not to mention Stanford and Cal), can continue on, and has backfill options.

Is it really the ACC if it is a definitive majority of old Big East teams at that point? Who are you back filling FSU with? USF. Another oBE team.

Yes.

I think re-uniting some of the BigEast in the ACC is a strong move for them.

I have said for awhile that I think the ACC is shifting ND's way. And I think that's a good thing for them.

GT has a history with ND, too.

I mean, you've listed out the schools.

remove FSU, Clemson, NC.

add USF, UConn, Army and Navy.

Take a look at the new ACC, and think whether that's a conference in total that fans could get excited about.

Losing those 3 schools and adding those as replacements - it's like it's a whole new conference.

It wouldn't be just those schools. You shift UNC and lots more pieces move.

Remove eight schools from the ACC that the P2 might take. FSU, Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, NC State, UVA, VT.

Now add USF, UCONN, maybe UCF, WV, Cincinnati... it's the Big East, not the ACC.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

(04-15-2024 09:04 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It wouldn't be just those schools. You shift UNC and lots more pieces move.

Remove eight schools from the ACC that the P2 might take. FSU, Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, NC State, UVA, VT.

Now add USF, UCONN, maybe UCF, WV, Cincinnati... it's the Big East, not the ACC.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

Maybe, but I'm starting to doubt it.

Except as a way to "entice" NC to move (which, I think you'll agree is unnecessary anymore) none of that NC/VA cluster does much for the SEC except maybe VT.

Unless the plan is a P2 breakaway (which got kicked downstream with the cfp being finalized), I don't think the SEC will assemble schools like blocks.

having an M2 helps the P2 in a variety of ways.

So no, I highly doubt the ACC goes the way of the PAC.

As for GT, I think it would be a very smart add for the SEC. GT with SEC-level money could be interesting as the #4 or #5 add.

a 21 member SEC with FSU, Clemson, NC, VT, and GT, doesn't really need to add anyone else.

(04-15-2024 09:04 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  It wouldn't be just those schools. You shift UNC and lots more pieces move.

Remove eight schools from the ACC that the P2 might take. FSU, Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, NC State, UVA, VT.

Now add USF, UCONN, maybe UCF, WV, Cincinnati... it's the Big East, not the ACC.

Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using CSNbbs mobile app

LIKE ^^^

IF these eight (8) schools (FSU, Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC, NC State, UVA, VT.) vote to dissolve the ACC THEN that would facilitate the addition of UCF, USF, UCONN, WVU, Cincinnati, & maybe Memphis for the BE Reunion Tour which includes replacement band members...

the Big Atlantic Conference (BAC)...the branding would be WE'RE BAC!!!

(04-15-2024 11:20 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-14-2024 03:08 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The B12 and ACC will swap nothing. If ACC loses 4 or 6 to P2 they are a hot mess. Question is can B12 go fishing too. My guess is yes. ESPN will drop ACC or renegotiate.

B12 likely grabs 4 more from ACC.

I'm not sure where the fatality line is. I can say with some confidence losing two isn't fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded SEC 24 out of 7 ACC schools and Kansas or 8 ACC schools is fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded B1G 24 out of 6 ACC schools which are NOT FSU/Clemson is fatal.

The difficulty comes in actually being able to peel off smaller units than that.

Potential state mandated "you must take both" deals: UVA-VT, UNC-NCST. These present no real issue to the SEC. There could be heartburn for the B1G since VT and NCST are not AAU and are not expected to be soon.

North Carolina is very baggage heavy. They'd prefer to run the country club in the ACC, but even the Rams Club can only go so far to close the TV money gap. UNC may have state required baggage of NCST. They have a strong preference for UVA to come along, which could bring along additional state required baggage in VT. They also have a strong preference to play GT. You're talking about maybe as many as 5 teams being the minimum unit to pry UNC free.


The easiest teams to pry away individually in the ACC are:

Florida State: No issues SEC, not AAU but far easier to bring in than Nebraska

Clemson: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, not AAU and not plausibly AAU either

Virginia: No issues SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... increasingly culturally aligned with the B1G)

Duke: Vandy issues joining SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... always has been culturally aligned with the B1G

Georgia Tech: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, AAU and has already said no to the B1G if they're the only southern team and the ACC is still viable. But is only one other southern team like Duke or Virginia enough? With these revenue disparities, probably.


In a world where the ACC is still deemed viable enough to appease UNC ... I don't see anybody other than those teams being willing to move solo and actually be desired in either P2. SEC can take max 3 (and looks poised to take 2 of those 3 soon). B1G can take max 3. In so doing though UNC might no longer be appeased by what is left in the ACC.

If you're willing to take the 5 team UNC baggage riddled nucleus in one go, there's no friction to either P2 and the ACC implodes quickly thereafter.

I would add Miami to that list Swagger. The 'Canes are also AAU, culturally aligned with the B1G, and knowing the SEC doesn't want them, prefers the B1G.

The reality is the ACC's worst-case scenario is losing Clemson and Florida State. They are the only schools who have been actively looking to get out, and of them only FSU has been putting together the finances to buy their way out of a settlement probably well north of $200 million or more. And it could well be a lot more. Clemson has not amassed funding, meaning even if things break for them to be able to leave, it will still be expensive to put it together. Neither is touchable until they are free. There is no invite, and can't be until they get free. An exit is a leap of faith (mild bet IMO, but a gamble none the less). Quite honestly, I'd put the odds at less than 50-50 in the next few years. Something will have to break in FSU's favor bigtime in the legal cases for me to improve their exit odds.

NC State and the BOG effectively tie North Carolina's hand, even though they are an interested party. Miami and the Virginia schools have shied from any exit push, have no stomach for parting with the money an exit would likely require, and really don't want to move anyway. Notre Dame has aligned their contract with NBC --that gives them enough money to largely close the gap with the P2-- with the termination of the B1G contract in 2032. An exit then would only be four years of GOR to buyout. But there is no need now, and independence is valued greatly by the Irish. Even if Florida State, and even if Clemson follows, nobody else will exit.

Contractually the ACC would not need to do anything should only one or two schools leave, which IMO is their worst case scenario. But "psychologically" they may feel they need to expand, adding a school demonstrate they are not imploding. Who would that be?

The short list is pretty obvious. South Florida, Memphis and Tulane seem to be tier one. Other schools mentioned (Tulsa, Rice, ECU) are such a drop off in level that I can only imagine any of them being invited after a large exodus, and a decline in the ACC status to that of the AAC. UConn is good at basketball, but even in the ACC football matters, and UConn football doesn't do it. Hence it will be the short list of candidates only who get consideration. Even losing two schools, probably only one gets invited, as the move is psychologically driven. And a new school would come in at a steep discount like Cal and Stanford did. A second school might well have to offer a play for free (no media dollars) for X number of years like SMU did to be included. South Florida is the most obvious candidate, given academics, Florida location (recruiting and media contract) to help offset somewhat FSU's exit. Memphis or Tulane might be asked to do something like SMU did if they want a 2nd school.

That is pretty much how I see it playing out if Florida State (and maybe Clemson also) can actually manage to exit.

(04-15-2024 10:04 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm starting to come around to the idea that the SEC will add FSU and Clemson only, with contracts that require the rest of the ACC schools to stay in place until some future date, at which point the league would have the unilateral option of extending its contracts beyond that time to insure its long term survival as a power conference.

With both SEC and B1G at 18, neither of them expand further for the remainder of their existing media deals.

You may have been correct the first time (16). I wouldn't be surprised to see FSU and Clemson move. I wouldn't be overjoyed about Clemson, but they are a big stadium school with a great shtick (the busses, the rock, the hill).
I also wouldn't be surprised for ESPN to move a couple of non-football schools out of the SEC and into the ACC and keep the SEC at a manageable 16.

This is show business and ESPN is the producer that will move actors from one cast to another to provide the right mix for both entities to be successful and profitable.

(04-15-2024 10:04 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm starting to come around to the idea that the SEC will add FSU and Clemson only, with contracts that require the rest of the ACC schools to stay in place until some future date, at which point the league would have the unilateral option of extending its contracts beyond that time to insure its long term survival as a power conference.

With both SEC and B1G at 18, neither of them expand further for the remainder of their existing media deals.

(04-16-2024 04:48 AM)XLance Wrote:  ...I wouldn't be surprised to see FSU and Clemson move. I wouldn't be overjoyed about Clemson, but they are a big stadium school with a great shtick (the busses, the rock, the hill).

TBH, I see this as the MOST likely scenario. It balances the sides (SEC currently has 2 less teams than Big Ten) while protecting ESPN's long-term investments.

(04-16-2024 04:48 AM)XLance Wrote:  I also wouldn't be surprised for ESPN to move a couple of non-football schools out of the SEC and into the ACC and keep the SEC at a manageable 16.

This is show business and ESPN is the producer that will move actors from one cast to another to provide the right mix for both entities to be successful and profitable.

No way do I see this happening. The ONLY way the SEC or Big Ten "lose" members is if there is a new division formed and those schools are simply not invited to move up... but nobody will be "kicked out", IMO (at least, not by the SEC; the B1G may use academic grounds to eject a school, but still unlikely).

(04-16-2024 03:56 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The reality is the ACC's worst-case scenario is losing Clemson and Florida State….
Contractually the ACC would not need to do anything should only one or two schools leave, which IMO is their worst case scenario. But "psychologically" they may feel they need to expand, adding a school demonstrate they are not imploding. Who would that be?

If it’s before August, you add Utah. That instantly establishes the ACC/B12 hierarchy which is all that matters perception wise.

(04-16-2024 01:31 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(04-16-2024 03:56 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The reality is the ACC's worst-case scenario is losing Clemson and Florida State….
Contractually the ACC would not need to do anything should only one or two schools leave, which IMO is their worst case scenario. But "psychologically" they may feel they need to expand, adding a school demonstrate they are not imploding. Who would that be?

If it’s before August, you add Utah. That instantly establishes the ACC/B12 hierarchy which is all that matters perception wise.

Clever play.

This works a lot of ways.

(04-15-2024 11:20 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(04-14-2024 03:08 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The B12 and ACC will swap nothing. If ACC loses 4 or 6 to P2 they are a hot mess. Question is can B12 go fishing too. My guess is yes. ESPN will drop ACC or renegotiate.

B12 likely grabs 4 more from ACC.

I'm not sure where the fatality line is. I can say with some confidence losing two isn't fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded SEC 24 out of 7 ACC schools and Kansas or 8 ACC schools is fatal. I can say with some confidence that an expanded B1G 24 out of 6 ACC schools which are NOT FSU/Clemson is fatal.

The difficulty comes in actually being able to peel off smaller units than that.

Potential state mandated "you must take both" deals: UVA-VT, UNC-NCST. These present no real issue to the SEC. There could be heartburn for the B1G since VT and NCST are not AAU and are not expected to be soon.

North Carolina is very baggage heavy. They'd prefer to run the country club in the ACC, but even the Rams Club can only go so far to close the TV money gap. UNC may have state required baggage of NCST. They have a strong preference for UVA to come along, which could bring along additional state required baggage in VT. They also have a strong preference to play GT. You're talking about maybe as many as 5 teams being the minimum unit to pry UNC free.


The easiest teams to pry away individually in the ACC are:

Florida State: No issues SEC, not AAU but far easier to bring in than Nebraska

Clemson: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, not AAU and not plausibly AAU either

Virginia: No issues SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... increasingly culturally aligned with the B1G)

Duke: Vandy issues joining SEC, AAU and probably outright prefers the B1G like Maryland at this point... always has been culturally aligned with the B1G

Georgia Tech: No issues SEC though not a revenue grand slam, AAU and has already said no to the B1G if they're the only southern team and the ACC is still viable. But is only one other southern team like Duke or Virginia enough? With these revenue disparities, probably.


In a world where the ACC is still deemed viable enough to appease UNC ... I don't see anybody other than those teams being willing to move solo and actually be desired in either P2. SEC can take max 3 (and looks poised to take 2 of those 3 soon). B1G can take max 3. In so doing though UNC might no longer be appeased by what is left in the ACC.

If you're willing to take the 5 team UNC baggage riddled nucleus in one go, there's no friction to either P2 and the ACC implodes quickly thereafter.

The more we look at this current situation, the more I see the following as the end game:

FSU and Clemson to SEC

UNC - uses NC St excuse to hold the P2 at bay, uses threat of leaving and thereby striking the ACC a death blow to get a significant raise from the ACC through 2036 - something perhaps on the order of $15m-$20m a year. The middle class ACC schools wouldn't like it, but they'd like paying UNC a premium more than they'd like begging the Yormarks for an invite or living in a neutered ACC, and the lower class schools would be happy just to have a 12 year reprieve. UNC would also be happy, as any potential move for them would be dictated by money and the ability to remain at the top in Basketball, both of which could be better-realized for them by remaining in the ACC with a hefty yearly "retention bonus".

The retention bonus idea doesn't work for Clemson and FSU b/c it would do nothing to keep them in the top tier of football, whereas the ACC is practically the poster child for "top tier" in basketball, year-in and year-out.

(04-16-2024 01:42 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(04-16-2024 01:31 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(04-16-2024 03:56 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The reality is the ACC's worst-case scenario is losing Clemson and Florida State….
Contractually the ACC would not need to do anything should only one or two schools leave, which IMO is their worst case scenario. But "psychologically" they may feel they need to expand, adding a school demonstrate they are not imploding. Who would that be?

If it’s before August, you add Utah. That instantly establishes the ACC/B12 hierarchy which is all that matters perception wise.

Clever play.

This works a lot of ways.

He just hates truck stops. He was trashing the Big 12 nonstop last summer, it's not surprising to see that he's already hoping to extricate his school. However, the cold, hard truth is that Utah isn't taking roughly equal money to join a distant conference with bad football, and, even if they did, they wouldn't have the same financial and reputational incentive that FSU does to leave the ACC. Utah is a small school in a small state that has steadily risen in the ranks over the past few decades, but that doesn't mean that they're guaranteed that spot. If they burn bridges with all the nearby schools and the ACC suffers any further defections, they'd be back in the MWC. ie, moving to the ACC would be a high risk, low reward move for them, and the potential negative ramifications of it could eventually lead to them switching places with the BYU of 2020. Speaking of which, Utah isn't even #1 in their own (small) State. If the ACC was going to target any of the 4c, Utah would be the 4th of 4 on their list. The one thing that Utah has going for them, pretty good but not great football, will be actively harmed by jumping to a neutered ACC.

TLDR: lots of reasons for Utah to prefer the Big 12 to any conference other than the old Pac or the current P2. Not so many reasons for the ACC to target Utah as an expansion candidate, unless perhaps it's part of a play to grab all of the 4c at once. Unfortunately, the time to do that was last summer, that ship has now sailed.

(04-16-2024 01:13 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 10:04 AM)ken d Wrote:  I'm starting to come around to the idea that the SEC will add FSU and Clemson only, with contracts that require the rest of the ACC schools to stay in place until some future date, at which point the league would have the unilateral option of extending its contracts beyond that time to insure its long term survival as a power conference.

With both SEC and B1G at 18, neither of them expand further for the remainder of their existing media deals.

(04-16-2024 04:48 AM)XLance Wrote:  ...I wouldn't be surprised to see FSU and Clemson move. I wouldn't be overjoyed about Clemson, but they are a big stadium school with a great shtick (the busses, the rock, the hill).

TBH, I see this as the MOST likely scenario. It balances the sides (SEC currently has 2 less teams than Big Ten) while protecting ESPN's long-term investments.

(04-16-2024 04:48 AM)XLance Wrote:  I also wouldn't be surprised for ESPN to move a couple of non-football schools out of the SEC and into the ACC and keep the SEC at a manageable 16.

This is show business and ESPN is the producer that will move actors from one cast to another to provide the right mix for both entities to be successful and profitable.

No way do I see this happening. The ONLY way the SEC or Big Ten "lose" members is if there is a new division formed and those schools are simply not invited to move up... but nobody will be "kicked out", IMO (at least, not by the SEC; the B1G may use academic grounds to eject a school, but still unlikely).

I'm not saying they would be kicked out or even invited to leave. But if ESPN kept paying them the same amount and their cost of competition went down there are a few schools in the SEC that might consider it.
There is no rule that says that just because the B1G has 18 teams, that the SEC has to have 18 too.
We'll see, in the long run the people holding the purse strings have a lot of influence as to how things are going to play out.

North Carolina senate leader Phil Berger wants NC schools to 'give it a couple of years' and make 'no rash decisions.'

"I would like to see the ACC continue as a major conference for all college athletics. Whether there are larger issues out there that would imperil that or create problems for that, I hope not. If the net result of that is keeping NC State and UNC in the same conference, fine. If it means keeping the Big Four together, fine."

https://www.wral.com/story/nc-senate-lea.../21397403/