(04-15-2024 06:46 PM)Porcine Wrote: (04-15-2024 04:50 PM)OneSockUp Wrote: (04-15-2024 02:53 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (04-15-2024 09:58 AM)OneSockUp Wrote: (04-15-2024 07:41 AM)quo vadis Wrote: The SEC would come out with slightly less, as its CFP per-school payout would decline slightly (would get gross increase but since FSU/C/NC were slated to make IIRC about $8m less in CFP payouts, the SEC would get $24m less from CFP than planned), or a loss of about $1.5m per school per year. But IMO that's not much and the benefit is having these schools in the SEC.
No?
So Alabama is going to get less money and lose out on rivalries like LSU, Ole Miss, and/or Tennessee? I don't really think that's a winning proposition.
To me, the loss of about $1.5m a year in CFP money is trivial and is offset by the gains in strength the SEC achieves by adding these three major brands, if for no other reason than the B1G won't get them. Money might even go up due to penetration of the NC market.
And I am not sure Alabama would have to give up those rivalries. Maybe one of them? Though I admit scheduling would be another issue.
Again I ask, why would the SEC invite these headaches? It's one thing if there are tens of millions of dollars at stake -- that's why OUT made sense. But for a break-even proposition financially, the SEC doesn't need to bother.
"BUT THE BIG TEN MAY COME TO TOWN!!!" So what? Iowa and Washington aren't going to flip a Pensacola kid away from UGA because they play in Tallahassee once every four years. This defensive posturing from the SEC is a total nonstarter that only exists in this echo chamber.
Again I'll point to the former Big East schools that are now in the ACC. Virginia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College and Louisville all used to be in the conversation when talking about college athletics. Now they are all punch lines. Meanwhile, the ACC has gone from being in the conversation about being the best football conference in the nation to being an afterthought.
If the SEC picks up the rest of the SE, we effectively control the best parts as far as talent and demographic changes over the last several years have shown. Not to mention all of the lawsuits. That goes far beyond ball games and tens of millions of dollars.
People miss the whole point of what really drives the revenue.
#1 Absolute control over the markets brings the premium advertising rate for each state. Right now the SEC doesn't have a dominant control in Florida. With Florida State it holds a super majority of college sports viewers in Florida. The advertising rates go up in the pass along from ESPN. In 1991 ESPN was thinking of acquiring the ACC and needed Florida to anchor their value in that state. The SEC made the mistake of gong to ESPN for a valuation on FSU. Due to that move the ACC knew when we would offer FSU and how much. Their people literally arrived in Tallahassee a day before the SEC delegation and offered 2 million more.
In 2011 ESPN had a clause demanding 2 new markets for the SEC before a renegotiation could take place inserted in our new contract signed a few years before. They were outthinking the SEC because that clause negated the desire by South Carolina and Florida to add their in state rivals Why was ESPN doing this? Because through the ACC and SEC they controlled virtually all of the Florida market and didn't have to pass along any perks for the % of the market the SEC and ACC held.
If there is no ACC in the future then ESPN will want Miami and F.S.U., and possibly USF in the SEC or Big 12 where they have slightly over 50% of the total rights.
Why would the SEC be interested in Virginia and Virginia Tech and in North Carolina and North Carolina State? Possibly even Duke? Because those two states represent 20 million people and very nice advertising perks to the ACC which ESPN didn't get to keep to themselves. But they sure as hell tried in 2011 when they wanted N.C. State and Virginia Tech in the SEC and Texas and Notre Dame and Oklahoma, in the ACC with possibly Kansas.
If they had pulled that off neither the SEC nor that ACC would have controlled the leverage in any large states and would have split them all.
With no ACC ESPN would want all of those in the SEC. So who would be the 8? At least 4 possibly 5 of the Virginia and North Carolina schools, Miami and Florida State, and Clemson. What hurts Georgia Tech is the supermajority of Georgia is covered with just the University of Georgia. The SEC dominates all of its state markets now except Florida and South Carolina. With this move the entire Southeast and Southwest would be in their absolute control, especially if Kansas is added.
This is why the Big 10 wants into the region. They are behind now in total valuation and in quality of teams and recruiting. If ESPN/SEC/ACC pull the Magnificent 7 plus Kansas they will have created "THE" Super Conference with a dominance in their lineup of Championships in Football, Baseball, Softball, and Women's Basketball and Men's basketball would be quite formidable with all 4 of the winningest programs in their line up.
So outside of Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC and Nebraska it accounts for nearly all of the national champions of the past 60 years with B.Y.U., Georgia Tech, Pitt and Colorado being the difference.
#2 The SEC outearned the mighty Big 10 by 6 million per school for the last reporting year of 2022-23 and did so while the Big 10 was under their new contract and the SEC labored under the next to last year of the woeful CBS contract. How in the hell did the SEC pull that off? The SEC averaged way more in attendance than the Big 10 in spite of their attendance leaders. The SEC also charges more for tickets and collects more in donations for ticket priorities and especially away ticket priorities which drive contributions at a lot of schools. And the SEC travels quite well, ask the Irish how the Dawg fans showed up in South Bend.
Media revenue is just one of many lines which determine total revenue. The SEC excels in them all because the games are....drum roll for the slow...they love playing each other in neighboring states and don't give a hoot about playing a great distance from home. Hence it just means more, including more revenue. This was part of the appeal for Texas and Oklahoma. It will be part of the appeal for Kansas should they come our way.
The Big 10 and FOX are touting going national and ballyhooing the NFL model, but the SEC is clearly #1 in revenue and will likely in just a couple of years to be so in media revenue as well. How much so? Well the Big 10 outearned the SEC in media revenue by about 10 million in 2022-23, but the SEC finished 6 million ahead from all other sources. Regionality and dominance of the markets in the region is a formula that FOX and the Big 10 can't overcome, only disrupt.