I believe the Big East is the major basketball conference most likely to expand in the next 24 months due to three factors: needing more inventory for TV, keeping up with the Joneses (other four leagues all have at least 16 members), and avoiding again the disaster that was three bids this season.

I don't think the Big East will go past 14, but I think the two likely expansion points are to 12 and 14.

Who are your favorites (1-5) if the league expands to 12? Mine:
1. Gonzaga
2. Dayton
3. St. Louis
4. VCU
5. Davidson

Who are your favorites (1-5) if the league expands to 14? Mine:
1. Gonzaga
2. St. Mary's
3. Dayton
4. St. Louis
5. VCU

The most logical places to add teams would be Boston, upstate New York, Pittsburg (replacing BC, Syracuse and Pitt) and Detroit, but there's nobody in those markets who has a strong enough program who would be a candidate. The programs are weak and/or have minimal fan support.

So Gonzaga for competitiveness and then Dayton and St. Louis.

I don't think they take another public in VCU and St. Mary's isn't Gonzaga and doesn't justify flying across the country.

Davidson is just too small a school although they are in a good market.

The Big East just won back to back titles in men's basketball through UConn. Expansion is not necessary for them. In fact since it is possible that UConn could leave for XII or ACC membership in the future I would just wait and see what happens. Equally if the ACC dissolves and teams start moving they might can land ACC teams that need a sports home for non-football. If enough Indy teams exist they can just have a late season scheduling alliance. Notre Dame, Syracuse, BC, Wake Forest, etc. could all be Big East options which is much better than adding Dayton, Saint Louis, or VCU.

If I’m the Big East, I sit at 11. If I can’t sit still, I’m adding Saint Louis. Otherwise, see how the ACC shakes out. There could be an opportunity to bring in a few schools like Boston College, Syracuse, Wake Forest, or even Notre Dame, Duke, or Pittsburgh.

I'm thinking Gonzaga waits on to see how the new PAC comes around. The PAC 2 + MWC might be a better deal for Gonzaga. Especially on travel. The move will be a upgrade to it's conference slate plus a potential increase in the media deals.

(04-11-2024 12:14 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  If I’m the Big East, I sit at 11. If I can’t sit still, I’m adding Saint Louis. Otherwise, see how the ACC shakes out. There could be an opportunity to bring in a few schools like Boston College, Syracuse, Wake Forest, or even Notre Dame, Duke, or Pittsburgh.

I agree. I don't see any strong motivation for the conference to expand at this time, and with the prospect of chaos on the horizon, it makes sense to stand pat and see what unexpected opportunities might present themselves.

For years, I wanted to see the Big East add Gonzaga, Dayton and Saint Louis.

But now — and with uncertainties to be addressed in college athletics — it seems the smart move is to stand pat.

I do agree (in a general sense) with shizzle's reasoning for adding members.

(04-11-2024 01:05 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  For years, I wanted to see the Big East add Gonzaga, Dayton and Saint Louis.

But now — and with uncertainties to be addressed in college athletics — it seems the smart move is to stand pat.

I do agree (in a general sense) with shizzle's reasoning for adding members.

The ACC will not get raided to the point where the remaining members join the Big East for Olympic sports and go independent in football. I don't see it. Far more likely the league loses 4-6 members and adds some combination of UConn, USF, Memphis, and Tulane.

(04-11-2024 01:10 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(04-11-2024 01:05 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  For years, I wanted to see the Big East add Gonzaga, Dayton and Saint Louis.

But now — and with uncertainties to be addressed in college athletics — it seems the smart move is to stand pat.

I do agree (in a general sense) with shizzle's reasoning for adding members.

The ACC will not get raided to the point where the remaining members join the Big East for Olympic sports and go independent in football. I don't see it. Far more likely the league loses 4-6 members and adds some combination of UConn, USF, Memphis, and Tulane.

I tend to agree.

I'd like us to wait and see with what happens within the ACC. There could be a clean settlement allowing FSU/Clemson to the SEC, or there could be a battle to the end with a legitimate loser, one outcome creating an open season for the B1G, SEC, Big 12 and possibly Big East to raid the ACC. I think that would clear itself up in the next 12-24 months, and, respectively, each of these programs will still be available to add at that time.

If no one from the ACC can be shaken lose (i.e. Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Notre Dame), then I'd rank the following in order:

1) Gonzaga. Elite program, proven brand, institutional fit. Can't solve the travel issue, but the money would be theoretically be there.
2) Dayton. Top-25 budget and revenues for basketball. Top-20 annually in attendance. Support is already there without P-level resources. Adding BE revenues would only help advance them. Institutional fit, but some overlap with Xavier; this should be ignored for the other valuable reasons.
3) SLU. Major media market that can be main attraction in the winter months. Institutional fit and has BE-level facilities (like Dayton). Has historically supported MBB at the higher end of the A10, with bigger hires in Majerus, Ford and, now Schertz. For various reasons, they have been unable to build/sustain any consistency overtime. They wouldn't be a DePaul (at present), but don't think they'd ever regularly be in the top-5/6.
4) VCU. Sustained high-level basketball program through several coaches (Grant, Smart, Wade, Rhoades and Odom). Great fan support, albeit in a sub-8k arena (would be smallest regular home arena in the BE - not counting Gonzaga). Solid, not great, media market in Richmond. Not an institutional fit from a Private standpoint, but if UConn remains in the league long-term, a fellow public school could be beneficial for league dynamics.

There are no realistic resumes to consider beyond those four programs.

None of these. None.

11 is great; that said, wait to see what is left of the pending ACC carnage. It would be foollish to be locking down A-10 schools when Duke, Syracuse, Pitt, and ND for non-football sports could be on the market someday.

(04-11-2024 01:37 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  None of these. None.

11 is great; that said, wait to see what is left of the pending ACC carnage. It would be foollish to be locking down A-10 schools when Duke, Syracuse, Pitt, and ND for non-football sports could be on the market someday.

This is where I'm at. It doesn't make any sense to consider any mid-majors for any reason when you have strong basketball schools that aren't P2 material in an unstable conference. That being said, I think it's more likely that the XII reunites the core of old Big East football and Cuse/Pitt/Louisville go there than the new Big East gets them and they go independent.

(04-11-2024 01:52 PM)Mav Wrote:  

(04-11-2024 01:37 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  None of these. None.

11 is great; that said, wait to see what is left of the pending ACC carnage. It would be foollish to be locking down A-10 schools when Duke, Syracuse, Pitt, and ND for non-football sports could be on the market someday.

This is where I'm at. It doesn't make any sense to consider any mid-majors for any reason when you have strong basketball schools that aren't P2 material in an unstable conference. That being said, I think it's more likely that the XII reunites the core of old Big East football and Cuse/Pitt/Louisville go there than the new Big East gets them and they go independent.

Very true, but there isn't an unlimited amount of spots available in the B12 either. They are already at 16 members, and at a certain point, new additions aren't adding money to the membership - they begin taking it away. If Miami isn't taken by the B1G/SEC, they are at the top of the order. Georgia Tech, and its Atlanta market, are near the top. Louisville is up there. If Clemson isn't taken, they for sure will be added by the B12.

I say all of this because the B12 won't take everyone from the ACC. There is a possibility that a program, or programs, like Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Boston College are left behind. At that point, do they rebuild the ACC (with UConn, USF, Temple, Memphis), or do they seek a return to the Big East and create an independent alliance (or dare I say Big East Football division) again?

One thing is for sure, seeing UConn win again this week has quite a few former BE fan bases once again seeking a return to the past. The ACC isn't the Big East.

0% chance until something happens to the ACC. If the ACC is picked apart, at least a few of the following may come available:

BC
Syracuse
Pitt
Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Notre Dame

Any of those schools would be more attractive to the Big East than any other school the Big East could reasonably get through expansion. They'll wait to see what happens with the ACC before expanding for that reason.

Expansion odds? 1 in 100. BE is not expanding. There are no candidates at this point in time. Dayton is in X's market. SLU doesn't deliver the St. Louis market. Gonzaga is in the middle of nowhere. VCU is a small market. Davidson is a small school that commands but a minute share of its market.

If the ACC blows up, things could change. Would BE schools leave to join leftover ACC schools or visa versa? Maybe. But for now, the BE says at 11.

The Big East will lose UCONN again.. this time the ACC…

I see them adding St. Louis and Dayton and VCU….

Although I see American going after VCU with the Army add…

I think there's about a 20% change the Big East get access to BC, CUSE, WAKE (maybe more like Pitt) when the ACC situation resolves itself in the next 3 years.

IMO

Nothing happens until very end of GOR - 20%
ACC loses just Clemson and FSU and just stay pat - 20%
ACC loses just 3-4 school and just refill - 20%
ACC loses 6+ schools to SEC/B1G and refill - 20%
ACC loses 10+ schools to SEC/B1G/B12 and the conference dies. - 20%

(04-11-2024 03:29 PM)pablowow Wrote:  The Big East will lose UCONN again.. this time the ACC…

I see them adding St. Louis and Dayton and VCU….

Although I see American going after VCU with the Army add…

If VCU wasn't added to the American when they had UConn, Cincinnati or Houston, they are certainly not moving now. The money still doesn't make sense for VCU, let alone partnering with the many schools in the AAC with low support/resources for men's basketball. I strongly doubt that the AAC adds another non-football member in the coming years. I would actually predict that Wichita State returning to the MVC is more likely than another non-football addition.

On the "AAC could add VCU theme" ...

There is no reason for VCU to be interested in the AAC or vice versa at this point.

The AAC is, like the Big East, in a holding pattern. Neither league needs to undertake membership adds until it sees how things shake out with the ACC (and the other all-sports power leagues). Once that happens, clarity with college athletics could allow for the Big East and/or the AAC adding members.

And, yes, I can foresee a scenario (though unlikely) that involves some current ACC members eventually joining the Big East (with football going indy or being involved in a football alliance of some sort).

I've posted previously: The Big East and the AAC are similar in some ways (particularly in that most of their members are located in large cities and in that some members have shared leagues with one another in the past). And the fact that both leagues (in this case) will want to wait to make any membership changes only after the all-sports P4 make their moves is another example of similarity.

for divisional reasons, you would think they would prefer an even number of east coast and midwest schools
assuming a preference for private/religious schools
assuming a preference for basketball schools
assuming UConn gets an all-sports offer
(that's a lot of assuming)

assuming 2 or 4 additions:
east division: Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown + 1 or 2
midwest division: Xavier, Butler, Marquette, DePaul, Creighton + 1 or 2

the midwest ones are easy: St.Louis and Dayton are really the only ones that fit the bill

Loyola-Chicago has been better in BB than St.Louis lately - but BigEast member DePaul is already in Chicago

if Dayton was located in Pittsburgh (or Cleveland) - it would be a better candidate because it's a big new market (and could be an add for the east division) or if Duquesne played consistently like Dayton, it would be better (because it is in Pittsburgh - instead of in the shadow of Cincinnati (with current BigEast member Xavier))

if Detroit-Mercy was any good at all (which they aren't - and haven't been) - they would be a better pick than any other in the midwest because of the size of the untapped new market. against all odds - the lone div 1 college BB program in HS BB talent rich Detroit, has avoided being good for decades. gotta appreciate the dedication to consistency.

i'm just gonna assume they stand pat (except that UConn leaves for any all-sports invite that isn't G5 or lower).
i like the belief that the BigEast could scoop up NotreDame, BC, Syracuse and Pitt from ACC fallout but I just don't see that happening.