I'm quite sure the current MAC media rights deal with ESPN set to expire in 2026-27 includes a standard "composition clause."

This clause allows either the conference or ESPN to reopen the deal if membership increases or decreases by at least two schools. The conference or network can reportedly act on that clause any time the conference's membership changes by at least two schools.

The agreement doesn't permit the MAC to take its media rights to the open market, but the addition of two schools does create the opportunity for a new negotiation and, highly likely, more money.

This was the case in the fall of 2021 when the MAC was close to adding MTSU and WKU, rumored to be for a nice bump in money with a GOR attached to it. Now, more than two years later, the MAC has added UMass, effective July 1, 2025.

Adding one more school, say, WKU, the composition clause would take effect, allowing the MAC to reopen its media rights deal with ESPN. This, of course, is all part of the ongoing conference realignment process.

Well, there are less than 3 weeks for WKU to move. Two related things. First, the MAC was able to renegotiate the last media deal 3 years early. Secondly, WKU would probably need to know the size of the media deal, especially now, since they would have a significant exit expense. Sorry we were not ready and did not have Chancellor Reyes back in 2021

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(04-13-2024 07:56 PM)Steve1981 Wrote:  Well, there are less than 3 weeks for WKU to move. Two related things. First, the MAC was able to renegotiate the last media deal 3 years early. Secondly, WKU would probably need to know the size of the media deal, especially now, since they would have a significant exit expense. Sorry we were not ready and did not have Chancellor Reyes back in 2021

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Correct, Steve, that's why I said part of the ongoing conference realignment process. ESPN is undoubtedly very much a part of this process.

(04-13-2024 06:35 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Adding one more school, say, WKU...

Some Conference USA fans will be taken aback if this happens. They really seem stuck on the fact that Conference USA was slightly better on the football field and the basketball court last season. Of course, this has very little to do with these decisions. (Most of us are old enough to remember when the Big Ten added Rutgers, for example.)

It's also clear that some Western Kentucky fans prefer to play a schedule laden with Southern schools. And I guess I do understand that. I like what the MAC is about for the same reason: Our Michigan-Ohio-heavy schedule -- that tight Middle American focus -- is a real throwback concept for a conference.

That said, if we put the hat on of Western Kentucky's president for a moment, a shift to the MAC would sure seem to have some appeal.

In Conference USA, Western Kentucky's three closest conference rivals are Middle Tennessee, Jacksonville State, and Kennesaw State. If you are Western Kentucky's president, do you want those schools as peer schools or would you prefer Miami, Ohio, and Ball State?

The choice here favors the MAC. All three of those MAC schools have stronger academic reputations per U.S. News.

If you are Western Kentucky's president, would you rather be in a conference with Liberty, or would you rather be in a conference without Liberty?

Again, the choice here favors the MAC.

If you are Western Kentucky's president, would you rather be in a conference with two schools in metropolitan El Paso, one near Houston and one near Miami, or would you rather be in a conference where most of your conference rivals are within driving distance?

The choice here favors the MAC. A shift to the MAC would likely free up resources for Western Kentucky by reducing travel costs.

And that's before we start getting into the question of ESPN revenue.

(04-13-2024 06:35 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  the addition of two schools does create the opportunity for a new negotiation and, highly likely, more money.

This was the case in the fall of 2021 when the MAC was close to adding MTSU and WKU, rumored to be for a nice bump in money with a GOR attached to it.

I don't have your sources, but this makes sense to me. Indeed, there are hints that the MAC may be an inherently more valuable television property than Conference USA.

So: All those other advantages to shifting to the MAC, plus a bump in TV revenue? If you are Western Kentucky, what's not to like here?

We'll see what happens, perhaps very soon.

From what I understand, Western Kentucky's president has lived most of his life in the South. Maybe he'll take a look what Commissioner McLeod has put together and like what Conference USA is shaping up to be.

That said, who knows what Conference USA will look like in five years. Every single school in that conference wants out. What Conference USA is today is probably not what it will be five years from now. And if something opens up in the American Athletic or the Sun Belt, Western Kentucky is probably not at the top of anyone's list, despite solid performance on the football field and some nice basketball tradition. (Bowling Green is the nation's 180th-largest television market, just behind Watertown, N.Y., and just ahead of Marquette, Mich.)

Given all that: I could very well see Western Kentucky making a change.

They would be a solid addition for us.

(04-14-2024 10:19 AM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  

(04-13-2024 06:35 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Adding one more school, say, WKU...

Some Conference USA fans will be taken aback if this happens. They really seem stuck on the fact that Conference USA was slightly better on the football field and the basketball court last season. Of course, this has very little to do with these decisions. (Most of us are old enough to remember when the Big Ten added Rutgers, for example.)

It's also clear that some Western Kentucky fans prefer to play a schedule laden with Southern schools. And I guess I do understand that. I like what the MAC is about for the same reason: Our Michigan-Ohio-heavy schedule -- that tight Middle American focus -- is a real throwback concept for a conference.

That said, if we put the hat on of Western Kentucky's president for a moment, a shift to the MAC would sure seem to have some appeal.

In Conference USA, Western Kentucky's three closest conference rivals are Middle Tennessee, Jacksonville State, and Kennesaw State. If you are Western Kentucky's president, do you want those schools as peer schools or would you prefer Miami, Ohio, and Ball State?

The choice here favors the MAC. All three of those MAC schools have stronger academic reputations per U.S. News.

If you are Western Kentucky's president, would you rather be in a conference with Liberty, or would you rather be in a conference without Liberty?

Again, the choice here favors the MAC.

If you are Western Kentucky's president, would you rather be in a conference with two schools in metropolitan El Paso, one near Houston and one near Miami, or would you rather be in a conference where most of your conference rivals are within driving distance?

The choice here favors the MAC. A shift to the MAC would likely free up resources for Western Kentucky by reducing travel costs.

And that's before we start getting into the question of ESPN revenue.

(04-13-2024 06:35 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  the addition of two schools does create the opportunity for a new negotiation and, highly likely, more money.

This was the case in the fall of 2021 when the MAC was close to adding MTSU and WKU, rumored to be for a nice bump in money with a GOR attached to it.

I don't have your sources, but this makes sense to me. Indeed, there are hints that the MAC may be an inherently more valuable television property than Conference USA.

So: All those other advantages to shifting to the MAC, plus a bump in TV revenue? If you are Western Kentucky, what's not to like here?

We'll see what happens, perhaps very soon.

From what I understand, Western Kentucky's president has lived most of his life in the South. Maybe he'll take a look what Commissioner McLeod has put together and like what Conference USA is shaping up to be.

That said, who knows what Conference USA will look like in five years. Every single school in that conference wants out. What Conference USA is today is probably not what it will be five years from now. And if something opens up in the American Athletic or the Sun Belt, Western Kentucky is probably not at the top of anyone's list, despite solid performance on the football field and some nice basketball tradition. (Bowling Green is the nation's 180th-largest television market, just behind Watertown, N.Y., and just ahead of Marquette, Mich.)

Given all that: I could very well see Western Kentucky making a change.

They would be a solid addition for us.

Excellent post, Schaden!

We are all pretty clear that WKU would be a good, not perfect, addition. Solid core sports w good hoops history, not quite in the geographic region, but adjacent enough that it sorta makes sense. And a similar school size and profile.

It's also clear that D1 football is consolidating and four mega conferences are the new norm and none of us are going to get an invite to that party. I'd suggest that continuing as D1 football but w a realistic G5 identity and then shifting some focus toward mens and women's hoops, soccer and hockey can keep the MAC as good mid level conferences. UMass and WKU aren't going to automatically make the league a 2 bid hoops conf, but on their good years they each will add a top 100 program to the mix. Big difference between a conf season/tourney w a max of 3 or 4 Quad 1/2 games and 6 or 7.

I don't see the NCAA tourney changing much beyond maybe adding 4 or 8 more to the play in round. The first weekend of the tourney w all the upsets and Cinderella's continues to be the only guaranteed big viewership. Beyond that it depends on matchups and storylines-this year the women's final outdrew the men's as they had a very compelling matchup of a generational player vs a dynasty undefeated team. Plus, as we've seen w Akron yesterday-more portal guys who haven't become starters at P5 are considering closing their college years at a strong mid major where they can start and still have a real shot at the dance. One MAC Cinderella run or 2nd bid reframes the league as legit destination for recruits who are marginal P5 talents and want playing time.

Another reason why Western Kentucky admin wants to move to the MAC. This infographic from the Wall Street Journal shows where each University's alumni move to after graduation. The MAC footprint is where the majority of the WKU grads move to after graduation.

Nashville
Louisville
Cincinnati
Chicago
Indianapolis
Washington DC.

They seem to move north, not south.

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/where-gradu...r-college/

(if you are hit with a subscribe pop up, hit stop loading as soon as you click on the link... then search WKU)

In the case of MTSU grads, they move south. This was the disconnect.

Well, many of us see WKU in a positive light and hope they join. Remember Topstraight posting that WKU was R2 and then say R2 in 2024. Taking that to mean the WKU president values education and education profile. Probably finds the academic consortium appealing with other MAC conference programs. Simply say, they would be a nice logical 14th member so close to existing MAC Universities and closer than UMass.

I will beleive it when I see it, WKU to MAC. Seems like a lot of our fanbase doesnt want this move and had rather jump to the Belt. Im all for joining MAC.

(04-14-2024 10:41 PM)Miami (Oh) Yeah ! Wrote:  Another reason why Western Kentucky admin wants to move to the MAC. This infographic from the Wall Street Journal shows where each University's alumni move to after graduation. The MAC footprint is where the majority of the WKU grads move to after graduation.

Nashville
Louisville
Cincinnati
Chicago
Indianapolis
Washington DC.

They seem to move north, not south.

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/where-gradu...r-college/

(if you are hit with a subscribe pop up, hit stop loading as soon as you click on the link... then search WKU)

In the case of MTSU grads, they move south. This was the disconnect.

Can add Lexington, lots of WKU grads like myself living here also.

(04-15-2024 08:25 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  I will beleive it when I see it, WKU to MAC. Seems like a lot of our fanbase doesnt want this move and had rather jump to the Belt. Im all for joining MAC.

UMass joining the MAC, does not make Massachusetts a mid western university as if WKU joined the MAC would make it a northern university. The MAC has relationships with other conferences as mentioned in the Track thread and MVC. The MAC has never overlapped with SB's footprint and has scheduled a basketball challenge with the SB. It may make it easier to schedule those SB universities of interest and you can schedule OOC games southern as UMass will do on the east coast.

My hope is the third time is the charm. First time a EMU temporary president caused WKU FBS move to fail. MTSU backing out and UMass not being ready caused the second time to fail as noted regarding opening up the ESPN contract needing 2 additions.

(04-15-2024 08:25 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  I will beleive it when I see it, WKU to MAC. Seems like a lot of our fanbase doesnt want this move and had rather jump to the Belt. Im all for joining MAC.

That would require the Belt actually extending an invitation so that's not really an option at the moment.

(04-15-2024 09:36 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 08:25 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  I will beleive it when I see it, WKU to MAC. Seems like a lot of our fanbase doesnt want this move and had rather jump to the Belt. Im all for joining MAC.

That would require the Belt actually extending an invitation so that's not really an option at the moment.

At the moment or for the foreseeable future, I'd argue. It seems to me this is something Western Kentucky would need to factor into its thinking.

I should expand on a point I made earlier, when I argued that a shift to the MAC would likely be quite favorable from the point of view of Western Kentucky's president. While true, this does leave out the potential role of the Western Kentucky Board of Regents, which consists primarily of appointees of the Kentucky governor.

Whether they need to vote on this, I do not know. But certainly their buy in would be relevant here.

I suppose it could be possible that some board members could prefer staying in a Southern-focused conference and aren't too concerned with the academic distinctions between schools in each conference. Some WKU fans seem to take this view; perhaps some regents would as well.

On the other hand, board members would surely be kept in the loop on key questions such as:

1. The likely value of the MAC's next television contract and how it compares to what Conference USA has now and is likely to be able to get in the future.
2. The cost savings in reduced travel.
3. The Conference USA schools most likely to leave if something opens up in the American Athletic or Sun Belt.

So, if a shift to the MAC makes sense, selling that shouldn't be too difficult, and I would think most fans would come around.

I do note that the next meeting of the board is May 2. (It just so happens they meet every year in early May, from the looks of it.)

(04-15-2024 09:36 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 08:25 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  I will beleive it when I see it, WKU to MAC. Seems like a lot of our fanbase doesnt want this move and had rather jump to the Belt. Im all for joining MAC.

That would require the Belt actually extending an invitation so that's not really an option at the moment.

Unless your school is actually in the Big Ten or SEC, there are going to be people in your fanbase who would like you to move to a conference that has no interest in inviting you.

I mean, UC would have rather joined the Big Ten than the Big12, but a Big Ten invite was not in the offing, so it wasn't really relevant to the Bearcat's move.

I would note that while WKU would in fact save money on travel with a MAC move, it wouldn't likely be enough to pay the $2.4m buyout to leave in mid-2025, so if that has a bearing on the decision, it would point more to a mid-2027 or mid-2028 move.

And meanwhile, although the Sunbelt seems unlikely to be seriously hit by fallout of any P2/M2 conference realignment, the American could well be hit, which can swing the decision either way ... if WKU were to get an invite to the AAC, even one that has been hard hit, that could well be a better landing spot, and by contrast if WKU were not to get an invite but MTSU did, that would make a departure from CUSA more appealing.

(04-15-2024 12:02 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 09:36 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 08:25 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  I will beleive it when I see it, WKU to MAC. Seems like a lot of our fanbase doesnt want this move and had rather jump to the Belt. Im all for joining MAC.

That would require the Belt actually extending an invitation so that's not really an option at the moment.

Unless your school is actually in the Big Ten or SEC, there are going to be people in your fanbase who would like you to move to a conference that has no interest in inviting you.

I mean, UC would have rather joined the Big Ten than the Big12, but a Big Ten invite was not in the offing, so it wasn't really relevant to the Bearcat's move.

I would note that while WKU would in fact save money on travel with a MAC move, it wouldn't likely be enough to pay the $2.4m buyout to leave in mid-2025, so if that has a bearing on the decision, it would point more to a mid-2027 or mid-2028 move.

And meanwhile, although the Sunbelt seems unlikely to be seriously hit by fallout of any P2/M2 conference realignment, the American could well be hit, which can swing the decision either way ... if WKU were to get an invite to the AAC, even one that has been hard hit, that could well be a better landing spot, and by contrast if WKU were not to get an invite but MTSU did, that would make a departure from CUSA more appealing.

Excellent post, BruceMcF!

(04-15-2024 08:25 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  I will beleive it when I see it, WKU to MAC. Seems like a lot of our fanbase doesnt want this move and had rather jump to the Belt. Im all for joining MAC.

When talking about WKU going to the SunBelt, you have to wonder why the Sunbelt didn't invite them before. My guess is revenge for leaving the Sunbelt for CUSA. Maybe TOPSTRAIGHT knows why?

(04-16-2024 03:38 PM)AllBronco Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 08:25 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  I will beleive it when I see it, WKU to MAC. Seems like a lot of our fanbase doesnt want this move and had rather jump to the Belt. Im all for joining MAC.

When talking about WKU going to the SunBelt, you have to wonder why the Sunbelt didn't invite them before. My guess is revenge for leaving the Sunbelt for CUSA. Maybe TOPSTRAIGHT knows why?

You are probably right.

BUT--- time changes things.

Quote from Lexington Herald Leader article--- "if an [MAC] invitation is extended, WKU will listen with interest, but it's not nearly as anxious for a new home as it was less than a handful of years ago."
link: https://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-colu...37596.html

See paragraph 8 in the above story.

WKU President Caboni stated to this poster--- "We are not in the same place as we were two years ago".

Another similar article:

https://flywareagle.com/posts/western-ke...-stuck-fcs



WKU might wind up joining the MAC. Nobody knows for sure. ANYTHING can happen in the crazy world of realignment.

However--there are going to be more "dominoes" falling in the next 2-4 years.

The SBC and AAC are possibilities--WKU may very well take a "wait and see" posture or stay in CUSA if there happens to be no movement among the G5.

I'm "old school." I like adding schools located in states adjacent to states already represented in the conference.

MA is adjacent to N.Y.* KY is adjacent to Ohio.

* Q: what is the distance from Amherst to Amherst and Bowling Green to Bowling Green?

(04-17-2024 07:06 AM)emu steve Wrote:  I'm "old school." I like adding schools located in states adjacent to states already represented in the conference.

MA is adjacent to N.Y.* KY is adjacent to Ohio.

* Q: what is the distance from Amherst to Amherst and Bowling Green to Bowling Green?

Almost the same:
Amherst to Amherst: 5 hrs 43 min 379 miles
BG to BG: 6 hrs 401 miles
Both nice Fall drives for fans.

(04-16-2024 03:38 PM)AllBronco Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 08:25 AM)WKUFan518 Wrote:  I will beleive it when I see it, WKU to MAC. Seems like a lot of our fanbase doesnt want this move and had rather jump to the Belt. Im all for joining MAC.

When talking about WKU going to the SunBelt, you have to wonder why the Sunbelt didn't invite them before. My guess is revenge for leaving the Sunbelt for CUSA. Maybe TOPSTRAIGHT knows why?

It seems like everyone they invited at the time they were inviting were better moves for building their two geographically-sensible divisions than WKU.

At present, there is no substantial reason to expand, and I don't think that the SBC is heavily exposed to realignment risk at present. However, if there is a sufficiently large P2/M2 realignment to spill over into the Go5 conferences, it is at least plausible that they end up with a hole in their line-up for which WKU is the least-bad available option, which further supports a "wait and see" strategy.