(04-16-2024 09:29 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 06:04 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses USF only, I would want the league to backfill with at least two schools (as Army replaces SMU in football only) and maybe as many as four.

As AppState fan Michael in Raleigh hypothesized, a Sun Belt foursome of Marshall, AppState, James Madison and Georgia State would be intriguing. I agree.

Appalachian State (noted in the Dennis Dodd article, as Y-181 correctly posts) would likely be at the top of the list. Not sure App would want to leave the Belt by itself. But App, if paired with one other SBC member, could likely be convinced to make the jump.

Now if the AAC eventually loses two or more members, the dynamic changes (thus making it doubly difficult to lure Belt members).

The scenario of four Sun Belt schools moving at once would be kind of a game of chicken.

“I don’t want to leave the Sun Belt, but if I don’t leave, all these other guys will leave instead of me, and I’ll be stuck in a watered down Sun Belt while most of my biggest rivals are off in the AAC.”

This, for the record, is *not* what I want as an App guy. I’m pro Sun Belt. Rather, this was in the context of what I think the new AAC commissioner ought to be thinking about. If I were him, I would at least entertain the idea of raiding the biggest threat to my league in the most important sport. Go to App State, Marshall, JMU, and Georgia State and say they’re all invited, and Louisiana or Coastal or ODU are invited if anyone turns the AAC down. (The Dazzle had a great point of having backup schools to invite.) It would fit Pernetti’s promise to be disruptive and that nothing is off the table.

Nothing surprises me in realignment anymore. We no longer have a Pac 12. The Big Ten is about to have schools in Los Angeles and metropolitan New York. Etc. And having small town Sun Belt schools join the AAC is far fetched?

I sincerely hope the Sun Belt sticks together. It’s a throwback where you, uh, get excited about playing your opponent as opposed to forced Civil ConFLiCT types of “rivalries.” It feels right that these schools are playing together. You’re not going to get that when SMU plays anyone in the ACC. But I won’t be surprised if the SBC gets rocked by a “disruptive” commissioner who wants to distance his league from its competition by scooping up said competition’s best assets.

Spot on, MinR.

To be clear, I feel there is a chance that the ACC will lose only Clemson and Florida State and then stand pat. So, if that happens, there would be no "ripple down effect" on the AAC and SBC.

But, and as you note, with various recent moves with the Big Ten and ACC (who would have ever thought Cal, Stanford and SMU to the ACC), nothing can be ruled out.

The AAC could benefit from being more like the SBC (in terms of improving its football focus and rivalries). Whether that ever happens ...

Every few weeks someone starts one of these hypothetical AAC backfill threads, and none of it comes to pass....

The ACC has a lot of litigation to navigate before anyone moves anywhere. By the time one of their members actually unleashes the floodgates, the power-players in every conference could be completely different. The fortunes of individual universities change. And, those conditions cannot be known at the moment. It's that simple. The AAC extended their contract with ESPN and it runs for another decade . So, the AAC will retain their financial advantage. Money talks, so the AAC will take the best universities that align with our long-term goals.

The only situation worth debating right now, are the impending changes coming to the MWC and PAC as those two vie for membership line-ups. If I was a gambling man, I'd bet one won't survive as an FBS conference (See the WAC).

If the American Athletic needs one school, why not Delaware?

It would increase their relevance in the Philadelphia TV market by setting up an instant rivalry with Temple. Delaware would also serve as a nicely located travel partner.

It's also a good school academically, so Rice and Tulane might not mind.

(04-18-2024 07:03 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  If the American Athletic needs one school, why not Delaware?

It would increase their relevance in the Philadelphia TV market by setting up an instant rivalry with Temple. Delaware would also serve as a nicely located travel partner.

It's also a good school academically, so Rice and Tulane might not mind.

Some people still have a thing about adding FCS schools.

(04-15-2024 06:04 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 05:34 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My gut tells me that Florida St and Clemson to the SEC will happen within the next 2 years, and USF will become the 4th pro rata add for the ACC Per their existing contract.

This leaves the AAC at an awkward 13 for football. If they needed to replace USF, who would be the lead candidate?

AFA is obviously their first ask but there’s a good chance they say no.

Who would it be after that? FIU for FL? Do they go for markets with GA St or ODU? Maybe Memphis would tolerate MTSU?

Is their some combination of 3 schools for 16 that make sense?

What are your thoughts regarding an AAC restock in this scenario?

USF's replacement will be FIU. It will be a one for one exchange in the same state kind of deal. Air Force isn't giving up the regionalism of the MWC to be in the same conference as Army and Navy. Georgia State and Old Dominion aren't giving up their regionalism as well as playing in-state rivals in the SBC. Memphis would block MTSU from joining, although Memphis could be the next team to leave after USF, in which case MTSU replaces them. The only question is who would pick up Memphis. Would it be the ACC or the Big XII?

doesn't work like that anymore the AAC will add whomever their ESPN overlords tell them to add to keep their contract intact.

also, if it happens it won't just be FSU/Clemson leaving...

(04-15-2024 05:53 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  According to Dennis Dodd (CBS Sports), they'd want us (Appalachian State).

Source: https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...t-for-smu/

Now, would they be able to get us? Right now, I'd guess "No".

That's the complicating factor for the AAC. Because IMO the days when they could pick anyone they wanted from the CUSA, MAC or SB or over. They could still get most of those schools, but not "anyone", and of course the better schools, like App State, are the ones most likely to say "no".

AAC already has 2 schools in NC, nobody asking App St

James Madison would take AAC offer
Tex St, Ark St, Louisiana would also be intrested

I believe Dennis Dodd's piece about the AAC assessing Appalachian State was accurate.

And if the AAC loses only one member (let's say USF) to the ACC, the AAC will need to de-emphasize its "let's invite schools located in large cities" model. AppState would be a strong addition to replace USF. But the best way (and maybe only way) App would be interested is if at least one other Sun Belt member is part of the move.

(04-18-2024 07:59 PM)Porcine Wrote:  

(04-18-2024 07:03 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  If the American Athletic needs one school, why not Delaware?

It would increase their relevance in the Philadelphia TV market by setting up an instant rivalry with Temple. Delaware would also serve as a nicely located travel partner.

It's also a good school academically, so Rice and Tulane might not mind.

Some people still have a thing about adding FCS schools.

Delaware will be FBS soon enough, though.

I like the AAC adding St Louis U right now to get to 14

My money's on Buffalo. That's the clear choice.

for the life in me:
I don't know why the ACC doesn't take Buffalo under it's wing
wasn't that long ago Buffalo BB was causing damage in the NCAAT
Buffalo FB had some good yrs also

10M dollars ACC could get Buffalo olympic sports
Buffalo FB plays indepentant, ACC gives them sch & eligable for ACC bowls & have their TV rights
when the school gets athietics built up, ACC has state flagship of NY ready to go

BIG should do same thing with Conn
AAC could do same thing with UMass

(04-18-2024 06:39 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  Every few weeks someone starts one of these hypothetical AAC backfill threads, and none of it comes to pass....

The ACC has a lot of litigation to navigate before anyone moves anywhere. By the time one of their members actually unleashes the floodgates, the power-players in every conference could be completely different. The fortunes of individual universities change. And, those conditions cannot be known at the moment. It's that simple. The AAC extended their contract with ESPN and it runs for another decade . So, the AAC will retain their financial advantage. Money talks, so the AAC will take the best universities that align with our long-term goals.

The only situation worth debating right now, are the impending changes coming to the MWC and PAC as those two vie for membership line-ups. If I was a gambling man, I'd bet one won't survive as an FBS conference (See the WAC).

Media contracts all have clauses to be renegotiated based on membership changes.

I would guess one of the Virginia schools, they seem about equal in my eyes but the Jimmies are closer to DC so I guess them? If neither wants to go and FIU is also out then they might be better off just sticking with 13.

(04-19-2024 08:10 PM)billings Wrote:  

(04-18-2024 06:39 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  Every few weeks someone starts one of these hypothetical AAC backfill threads, and none of it comes to pass....

The ACC has a lot of litigation to navigate before anyone moves anywhere. By the time one of their members actually unleashes the floodgates, the power-players in every conference could be completely different. The fortunes of individual universities change. And, those conditions cannot be known at the moment. It's that simple. The AAC extended their contract with ESPN and it runs for another decade . So, the AAC will retain their financial advantage. Money talks, so the AAC will take the best universities that align with our long-term goals.

The only situation worth debating right now, are the impending changes coming to the MWC and PAC as those two vie for membership line-ups. If I was a gambling man, I'd bet one won't survive as an FBS conference (See the WAC).

Media contracts all have clauses to be renegotiated based on membership changes.

That is true, but so far ESPN has shown a reluctance to cutting the AAC money. In fact, they have maintained the non-autonomous media revenue peaking order. And, I think today's announcement about universities being able to facilitate NIL deals, is another win for the AAC, as overall that conference's members have more financial resources compared to the other non-autonomous conferences.

(04-22-2024 07:14 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(04-19-2024 08:10 PM)billings Wrote:  

(04-18-2024 06:39 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  Every few weeks someone starts one of these hypothetical AAC backfill threads, and none of it comes to pass....

The ACC has a lot of litigation to navigate before anyone moves anywhere. By the time one of their members actually unleashes the floodgates, the power-players in every conference could be completely different. The fortunes of individual universities change. And, those conditions cannot be known at the moment. It's that simple. The AAC extended their contract with ESPN and it runs for another decade . So, the AAC will retain their financial advantage. Money talks, so the AAC will take the best universities that align with our long-term goals.

The only situation worth debating right now, are the impending changes coming to the MWC and PAC as those two vie for membership line-ups. If I was a gambling man, I'd bet one won't survive as an FBS conference (See the WAC).

Media contracts all have clauses to be renegotiated based on membership changes.

That is true, but so far ESPN has shown a reluctance to cutting the AAC money. In fact, they have maintained the non-autonomous media revenue peaking order. And, I think today's announcement about universities being able to facilitate NIL deals, is another win for the AAC, as overall that conference's members have more financial resources compared to the other non-autonomous conferences.

How do we know this, SSJoe? Do you have a source? I'm not sure the AAC has more resources than the MWC. Would be curious to see a source.

(04-15-2024 06:04 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses USF only, I would want the league to backfill with at least two schools (as Army replaces SMU in football only) and maybe as many as four.

As AppState fan Michael in Raleigh hypothesized, a Sun Belt foursome of Marshall, AppState, James Madison and Georgia State would be intriguing. I agree.

Appalachian State (noted in the Dennis Dodd article, as Y-181 correctly posts) would likely be at the top of the list. Not sure App would want to leave the Belt by itself. But App, if paired with one other SBC member, could likely be convinced to make the jump.

Now if the AAC eventually loses two or more members, the dynamic changes (thus making it doubly difficult to lure Belt members).

If USF is the only loss, taking the AAC down to 13 members, I would try for App State, JMU and Marshall. At 16, that would restore the AAC's superiority over the SBC, and bring them back to being on a par with a 2PAC/MWC merger.

A lot of non-SBC posters are missing the point that 90% of SBC schools are not making the move to the AAC now and especially not if more programs get picked off. The only advantage right now is in money, and travel costs make up for that discrepancy. Some have asked what if the AAC invited 3-4 members at the same time. Why would those members leave and pay exit fees just to join the same teams they are already playing plus a bunch of other teams halfway across the country.

From the Marshall perspective. We wanted away from the 3-4 Texas Teams and especially the long trips to get to Texas. Why would we pay money to go right back to where we were?

(04-23-2024 09:47 AM)Surbadger Wrote:  A lot of non-SBC posters are missing the point that 90% of SBC schools are not making the move to the AAC now and especially not if more programs get picked off. The only advantage right now is in money, and travel costs make up for that discrepancy. Some have asked what if the AAC invited 3-4 members at the same time. Why would those members leave and pay exit fees just to join the same teams they are already playing plus a bunch of other teams halfway across the country.

From the Marshall perspective. We wanted away from the 3-4 Texas Teams and especially the long trips to get to Texas. Why would we pay money to go right back to where we were?

In the scenario I described, with App State, JMU and Marshall joining the AAC, Marshall would be in a division with Temple, Army, East Carolina, JMU, App State, Charlotte and FAU, with one crossover game per year (so one away trip every other year).

(04-23-2024 09:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(04-23-2024 09:47 AM)Surbadger Wrote:  A lot of non-SBC posters are missing the point that 90% of SBC schools are not making the move to the AAC now and especially not if more programs get picked off. The only advantage right now is in money, and travel costs make up for that discrepancy. Some have asked what if the AAC invited 3-4 members at the same time. Why would those members leave and pay exit fees just to join the same teams they are already playing plus a bunch of other teams halfway across the country.

From the Marshall perspective. We wanted away from the 3-4 Texas Teams and especially the long trips to get to Texas. Why would we pay money to go right back to where we were?

In the scenario I described, with App State, JMU and Marshall joining the AAC, Marshall would be in a division with Temple, Army, East Carolina, JMU, App State, Charlotte and FAU, with one crossover game per year (so one away trip every other year).

But why would we drop Coastal, Ga Southern, and GA State for those other 5 teams? I like ECU as a conference mate. But you are stretching the division from a super regional WV-GA to NY-FL. I just do not see the advantage to spend a huge amount of money to join those teams when over half of them we already play.