(04-17-2024 02:08 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote: (04-17-2024 01:24 PM)Mean Green Alum Wrote: (04-17-2024 12:07 PM)RUScarlets Wrote: (04-17-2024 11:34 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote: A far-flung BOR P-X is a non-starter unless there’s some TV network crazy enough to pay a significant premium for the broadcast rights to that Frankenstein over and above whatever amount of TV money a P-14 with all of the MWC members is likely to make.
I don’t see it.
I agree, and from an unbiased viewpoint as well. Just sad where we are at. The PAC2 got screwed and are willing to blow their divorce settlement on a bunch of slightly higher branding G5 schools. They actually think they are going to get ahead in the long run. I'd at least use that money to try to buy into the ACC or Big 12, but they want to go this route... hope the networks laugh at them.
I'm pretty sure both have already tried that... It would have been malpractice if they hadn't. When the 4C were added, it would have made sense that they offered up the money to the B12 to be the 17th and 18th member. Then Calford paid their way into the ACC... If both those 2 PAC schools were in talks with the ACC, OSU/WSU were as well in a similar deal, and it would have made sense to add them to brace for the likely four to six defections in the future. Neither conference wants them at this point. Down the road? It's possible.
They need to talk to the best of the G5 while they wait out the next two years to form the best conference possible. A full merger with the MWC does not do it. If they could pull the top of the MWC and AAC, they should be able to get a better contract in the future than if they joined the MWC or AAC. Of course they want to join a P4 conference, but the desire has to be both ways. They can only position themselves for the best position possible to make the most money.
Better maybe, but how much better? I have yet to see a scrap of evidence that the lift would be significant.
What we do know is that the current MWC TV deal that runs through 2025-26 pays out $4 million per school per year, and the current AAC TV deal that runs through 2033-34 pays out $6 million per school per year (although due to uneven revenue sharing the legacy AAC members are getting closer to $8 million each). Looking at those at baselines, a Pac-14 with all of the MWC members might land a raise to $8 million per school per year starting in 2026, whereas a Pac-sponsored BOR conference might get a deal for as much as $10 million per school per year starting in 2026. So assuming a six-year contract period, jumping to the BOR conference could be worth an extra $12 million.
Would that amount of money, plus the "prestige" of being associated with the tallest group of midgets, be enough to induce the MWC schools targeted for BOR conference membership to pay $17 million in MWC exit fees each, and OSU and WSU to pony up nearly $70 million in penalty fees to the MWC? And all of them to incur the additional travel cost and hassle of sending their non-football teams on lengthy road trips spanning three or possibly even four time zones?
As I said before... I just don't see it.
The value will be better enough to move. I don't see the MWC getting $8m in the future. The media landscape has diminished since the MWC's last contract, and I only see a small bump, around $6m, which would be a normal raise, a la what the B12 received. And I regrettably do not see the defections of UCF/Cincy/Houston/SMU and the additions of UAB/FAU/UNCCHA/North Texas/UTSA/Rice as increasing the value of the conference. It only gave the conference lower valued members with more mouths to feed.
Honestly, I see a Pac/MWC merger as archaic. It could happen, but if it does, it will not hold for long because it defies the current trend in Conference Realignment: Build more time zones to create more value and scheduling options for networks. The value of 'the best of the rest" PAC makes sense:
The AAC contract was drafted before the new defections/additions and should be lower in the future. I could see the value nosedive in the next contract, both considering the defections and understanding the new deals with the B1G/SEC/B12 makes the desire for G5 less due to a higher P4 exposure amongst networks. The argument that the top schools in the conference would be okay with dying a slow death with the hope that the new additions will become the next UCF, Cincy, and Louisville by 2034 does not make sense in today's climate, especially with talks of a separation between the haves and have nots by as soon as 2030, four to five years before the current AAC contract expires. That's a lot to risk for little financial benefit.
The MWC schools' value should increase next contract, but they have the same issue as the Pac did: They are stuck in the Pacific/Mountain time zones with little maneuverability from a TV scheduling standpoint. Schools will also have a chance to defect around 2027 with less penalties, which increases the likelihood the schools will shop around to see where a 10-20 year outlook is best financially for their university to set themselves up for life after the NCAA litigations. The cost will still be great to move, but will be viewed as investment in the future. The networks have already shown their desire for an exclusive Mountain-Pacific conference, and it is not there.
Both conferences have universities that bring down the overall valuation, and a PAC arrangement trims the fat, increases exposure with a four time zone conference, and gives the networks flexible content to fill in scheduling needs. I could see the new Pac get at least $10m, if not more, if formed today, which would be more than what an MWC or AAC would get in today's market. The overall sports product would also be improved across football and basketball. All of that is enough to increase the potential valuation.
But there is no prestige in this move. It is better to be associated with the Pac, which has over a hundred years of history over conferences with less, but the Pac is a damaged brand after this round of realignment. There is an increase in perception with this move due to association with the new member institutions, most which have had success, that will help increase chances of playoff access for the new Pac schools in the new system. The money increase due to exposure will more than pay for lengthy road trips, which is a tired argument that has been proven untrue with B1G/B12/ACC additions, along with other additions from G5 conferences (an AAC that spans from Kansas to Florida, a CUSA from New Mexico to Florida to Delaware, and a MAC with UMass).
The future college football landscape is going to dramatically change due to rising NIL costs, potential super league talks, likely upcoming litigation costs, and the likely unionization of players. Schools will take a financial hit now to allow themselves to continue athletics at a high level in the future.
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Fluguar on PAC2 Rebuild Pecking Order
