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,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Hambone10 - 02-06-2009 10:01 AM
Thread title to get attention. Obviously he's not stupid, by ANY measure... but his speech last night was about as partisan as you can get... and I'm REALLY pissed of... I thought we were moving past this, and while pointing the finger at Republicans (or just about anyone who is for reducing taxes) for being partisan, he exhibits the most partisan and misleading traits himself.
Is spending stimulus?? Yes. Is stimulus spending? Not necessarily.
Let me give you an easy example where tax incentives are better than government spending. This can be applied to dozens of instances, but this one is easy.
Part of the spending bill I saw was for the government to spend $250mm to buy new vehicles. Is that stimulative?? Absolutely. However, since they buy in bulk, no salesmen make money. They negotiate for the lowest cost, and generally buy the cars with the fewest options. No GPS, no custom wheels, no tinting, basic radio. What if, instead, they gave the public $250mm to spend on new vehicles. Chances are we'd add options and use salesmen. The auto companies would still sell cars, but more industries would be helped... GPS, Radio, wheel and tire... alarms... salesmen etc.
WHAT IF, and I know this has been put out there... we instead provided tax incentives to buy cars. As an example, make the interest tax deductible... provide rebates for trading in less efficient models... and even if we added grants/handouts/cash back incentives.. our $250mm in public monies would go MUCH farther and do MUCH more... because it would be added to monies voluntarily spent by people. Further, because of the deductibility of the interest, banks would be encouraged to loan (isn't that the whole purpose??) because now they can charge 8% when before they could only get 6%, yet the consumer is still better off because of the deduction... you could even make the deduction a rebate for the poor if you wanted... an interest free loan for a new car.
Imagine this... a working poor person needs a car and owns a 72 Buick that runs on leaded gas and gets 2MPG. By trading it in and buying a new $15,000 30mpg Chevy Malibu, he gets blue book for the car... let's say $1,000... plus a $1,000 government "incentive" for trading in an old car... plus a check in hand as he walks out for $2,000 in a government incentive... $2,000 in his pocket and a bank loan for $14,000 at 10%. He makes payments of $199/month and gets a rebate check from the government for the interest of $25/month for 48 months. If he doesn't make his payments, the car gets "put" back to the government at let's say 1/2 of cost. What does this cost the government? $3,000 instead of $15,000 if they simply bought the car themselves... PLUS perhaps they end up paying $7,500 for the car in the next year or two... or perhaps an additional $1200 in interest subsidy if the guy pays it off. WORST CASE, they have added roughly 1/3 to the tax money while stimulating MANY more industries than if they bought it themselves... BEST case, they stimulate the economy more AND clean the environment for perhaps 1/4 the cost of the "spending" plan
If people can't understand this, then I've done a poor job explaining it.
Spending IS stimulative, but it isn't necessarily the best way to stimulate... and Obama is absolutely wrong, and completely misleading the American public to claim that "the other side" is the only one engaging in politics of the past.
I'm mad because I was PROMISED this was over... and in a speech chastising opponents of his plan, he proves he is no better.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - gsloth - 02-06-2009 10:58 AM
Well, Obama's IQ is supposedly lower than GWB's/Shrub's, so you could make an inference there... (and a completely useless one, I might add)
In your former example, Hambone, with the government buying bulk, you may not get it to all citizens, but you might purchase more cars total with the extras stripped off. And that means the assembly lines are busier and more workers are kept employed (or at least are more productive). And that does benefit a certain Democratic constituency, if I may point out.
And I'm ignoring the fact that if it's spread as a credit, you might get more cars purchased, but you'd also be including folks who were already going to be purchasing a car anyways. Tough to figure where that breakpoint is. But you'd also be subsidizing purchases from "foreign" automakers (even though most of their popular lines are made largely in the US). It's just more politically expedient to have the government purchase more US cars and trucks.
BTW, didn't watch the speech. Wasn't that interested.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Rick Gerlach - 02-06-2009 11:21 AM
(02-06-2009 10:58 AM)gsloth Wrote: Well, Obama's IQ is supposedly lower than GWB's/Shrub's, so you could make an inference there... (and a completely useless one, I might add)
In your former example, Hambone, with the government buying bulk, you may not get it to all citizens, but you might purchase more cars total with the extras stripped off. And that means the assembly lines are busier and more workers are kept employed (or at least are more productive). And that does benefit a certain Democratic constituency, if I may point out.
And I'm ignoring the fact that if it's spread as a credit, you might get more cars purchased, but you'd also be including folks who were already going to be purchasing a car anyways. Tough to figure where that breakpoint is. But you'd also be subsidizing purchases from "foreign" automakers (even though most of their popular lines are made largely in the US). It's just more politically expedient to have the government purchase more US cars and trucks.
BTW, didn't watch the speech. Wasn't that interested.
IQ and wisdom are too separate things.
Wisdom is the application of intelligence.
(this is not a judgement on either Bush or Obama, I believe public perceptions of both have been influenced greatly by the media and pundits, who have their own agendas. One would hope that it would not be possible for either to rise to their level without some modicum of both intelligence and wisdom).
I make this point because there is not a direct correlation of the two.
Incredibly intelligent people can lack wisdom, consistently or at least in certain areas and at certain times.
People the elite look down upon, can, and frequently do, display much more wisdom despite a lack of education or measured intelligence.
It's a distinction that is sometimes lost in certain circles and sometimes is absent on this board (the distinction, not the quality, and not all the time, but on occasion by some). Not too surprising, Rice certainly focuses on the intelligence portion of the equation in allowing us into this circle known as the Parliament.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Hambone10 - 02-06-2009 11:46 AM
Sloth, I'm not going to go to the trouble of doing the detailed math... and I know you aren't either and aren't asking me to... but I don't believe the economic impact of selling more cars at lower margins without involving the banking system will even come close to replacing the overall economic impact of doing it my way. I threw out a few ideas I don't even really support to allow for some social engineering in the bill... In the simplest of examples... and the most "republican", the combination of subsidies and interest rebates in the pro-forma (before allowing for failed loans etc) would either cost 1/3 of the original bill ($5,000 in subsidies/interest vs $15,000 for the cars) or generate 3 times the sales volume for the same public capital. If Detroit lost 25% of that volume (which implies that non-factory add-ons are at least 25% or more the total cost of the car... remember, they mark up accessories, too) to accessory producers/local installers/dealers (who are ALSO potential constituents) and 60% of the remaining volume to foreign auto makers (though you could certainly be protectionist and only allow the subs for cars where 70% of them are made in the US or whatever) they would STILL be selling more cars to the public than the government... again, not to mention all of the other benefits.
There are plenty of ways to do this. We'll subsidize the base MSRP cost of the car... not the options... or some sort of scale based on how much of a car is made in the US... or simply say only those companies currently receiving public support. (we've bailed out Chrysler before and the government bought almost nothing but Chrysler cars for a few years)
My point is... you can generate 3-4 times the economic activity and stimulate MUCH more of the economy by offering a combination of small rebates and tax incentives rather than by direct "spending".
As to offering subsidies to people who are already buying a car?? Still, you can tier the assistance. If they're replacing a 72 skylark, thats a good thing and we can support that... I don't understand how giving someone who makes 250,000/yr and is buying a 50,000 car a 2,000 rebate is any less stimulative than giving that same rebate to someone who makes 10,000/yr and is buying a $15,000 car... but I'm willing to accept the fact that the dems control things, which means that people who make over a certain amount, or who buy a car over a certain amount won't get the subsidy...or that some portion of the economy who was already going to buy a car will now buy MORE of a car, or spend the money elsewhere.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Owl 69/70/75 - 02-06-2009 12:09 PM
At the end of the day, the distinction is simple. If it's a government spending process, then some bureaucrat gets to control where the money is spent. If it's tax relief, that element of control is not there.
So it comes down to this.
If you believe that you make better decisions than government bureaucrats do, then you should prefer tax cuts.
If you believe that government bureaucrats make better decisions than you do, then you should prefer government spending.
I've known and worked with literally hundreds, if not thousands, of government bureaucrats in my day. That, if nothing else, makes me favor tax cuts.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Hambone10 - 02-06-2009 12:22 PM
The problem is even bigger than that 69/70... Look at MY proposal... There is certainly spending involved in it... and some of the "tax cuts" can certainly go to people who don't pay taxes... which means they aren't really tax cuts in the classic sense, but they ALSO aren't the government buying a bunch of cars they don't really need, and in fact, in this time of belt-tightening... I'm okay with the GSA employee driving a "free" 4yr old car.
It's about so obviously calling dissenters who seek INCENTIVES that OBVIOUSLY COULD be a better use of our funds, rather than direct government SPENDING "partisan".
I've never been fully sold on Newt, but I liked his take... Obama found himself in a room of people with one agenda, and forgot he represented everyone now. The difference between a former governor and a state and then federal senator.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - OptimisticOwl - 02-06-2009 12:23 PM
(02-06-2009 11:21 AM)Rick Gerlach Wrote: People the elite look down upon, can, and frequently do, display much more wisdom despite a lack of education or measured intelligence.
I know some very smart people who would be considered "rednecks".
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - OptimisticOwl - 02-06-2009 12:28 PM
(02-06-2009 10:01 AM)Hambone10 Wrote: Thread title to get attention. Obviously he's not stupid, by ANY measure... but his speech last night was about as partisan as you can get... and I'm REALLY pissed of... I thought we were moving past this, and while pointing the finger at Republicans (or just about anyone who is for reducing taxes) for being partisan, he exhibits the most partisan and misleading traits himself.
I'm waiting for the Obama defenders to come out and defend him.
Sure we were supposed to be moving past this, but those were "just words".
I thought he would get a long honeymoon - his party controls both houses of congress and can pass whatever they want. Why do they need the Republicans anyway?
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Rick Gerlach - 02-06-2009 12:42 PM
(02-06-2009 12:23 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:(02-06-2009 11:21 AM)Rick Gerlach Wrote: People the elite look down upon, can, and frequently do, display much more wisdom despite a lack of education or measured intelligence.
I know some very smart people who would be considered "rednecks".
We all do, whether we realize it or not.
I was taken aback when I was in the library early last fall and was reading in an academic journal. The article was about how our elite universities were failing their graduates. The article itself came across as elitist, unintentionally, but that's a different matter.
The author started by recounting an anecdote of how he was 'trapped' in the house with his plumber while repair work was being done, and realized he was incapable of holding a conversation with him.
Not that he tried, but just that he could not relate at all . . . . .
just incredible, and pathetic and laughable, all at once.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Hambone10 - 02-06-2009 12:43 PM
The point of my headline was to get supporters to respond... rather than to simply argue... Obama is my President, and though I don't support much of his agenda, I was at least hoping that he could change the "tone" of Washington, which would mean that REAL discussion, like much of what takes place on here would ensue.
The point of my headline was to repeat what I believe Obama was doing... talking bipartisan, and then acting partisan
I am not simply trying to bash the guy
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Rick Gerlach - 02-06-2009 12:51 PM
(02-06-2009 12:43 PM)Hambone10 Wrote: The point of my headline was to get supporters to respond... rather than to simply argue... Obama is my President, and though I don't support much of his agenda, I was at least hoping that he could change the "tone" of Washington, which would mean that REAL discussion, like much of what takes place on here would ensue.
The point of my headline was to repeat what I believe Obama was doing... talking bipartisan, and then acting partisan
I am not simply trying to bash the guy
I constantly flip between wanting to believe Obama's calls for bipartisanship and hoping he desires to govern from the middle . .. .
and wondering if he secretly IS in favor of everything Pelosi and Reid want and just is playing good cop/bad cop with them so he can maintain his high approval ratings while the Democrats push an agenda that will cost us all dearly in a variety of ways, but mostly in fiscal terms. We're broke, so pushing every program in the world right now is NOT a good idea.
I want to believe the former. As you and OO point out, the Democrats CAN do what they want to a large extent. So he doesn't HAVE to reach out. On the other hand if he doesn't, the mid-term elections may start the pendulum swing back, so it's probably important to him to maintain his high approval ratings.
Geez, I want the guy to be different as a President than what we've got in Congress. I want him to govern from the middle . . . . . he would seem to run more on political savvy than idealogy.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - RiceDoc - 02-06-2009 01:23 PM
(02-06-2009 12:23 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:(02-06-2009 11:21 AM)Rick Gerlach Wrote: People the elite look down upon, can, and frequently do, display much more wisdom despite a lack of education or measured intelligence.
I know some very smart people who would be considered "rednecks".
Contrary to the stereotype, just because I sunburn readily and thus may often be found with a red neck does not mean my brain is fried. And in my business, I am rather fond of telling inventors for whom it is true that their often relatively simple inventions would never have been made by the guys in a research lab because it took someone who was unburdened by formal education to try what they did to make whatever it is work! And I gotta tell you, some of the most prolific inventors are those who dropped out of junior high or high school because they were brilliant but bored with the curriculum.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Ranger - 02-06-2009 01:56 PM
One thing that needs to be remembered is that, except in school, Obama has only once been in charge of anything, and that apparently squandered at least $100 million without results. One could argue whether it makes sense to put someone with virtually no leadership or managerial experience into the presidency, but that is now a moot point. He will learn as he goes along. he is fairly smart. As long as he realizes there is much to learn, he should improve with time.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - JSA - 02-06-2009 02:02 PM
As to partisanship, 0 House Republicans voted for the bill.
As to tax cuts vs. spending by 'bureaucrats,' I love tax cuts as much as the next person. But as we saw with the rebate checks last year, many people put theirs into saving accounts. Not necessarily a bad thing, but not the spur to spending that was hoped. And no personal tax cut, no matter how large, is going to induce me to buy anything from a struggling heavy-equipment manufacturer such as Caterpillar. I simply don't need what they make. They're more likely to helped by gov't funded infrastructure projects.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Rick Gerlach - 02-06-2009 02:34 PM
(02-06-2009 02:02 PM)JSA Wrote: As to partisanship, 0 House Republicans voted for the bill.
As to tax cuts vs. spending by 'bureaucrats,' I love tax cuts as much as the next person. But as we saw with the rebate checks last year, many people put theirs into saving accounts. Not necessarily a bad thing, but not the spur to spending that was hoped. And no personal tax cut, no matter how large, is going to induce me to buy anything from a struggling heavy-equipment manufacturer such as Caterpillar. I simply don't need what they make. They're more likely to helped by gov't funded infrastructure projects.
Don't get me wrong. I'm all for a stimulus package, including infrastructure projects. Someone has to design them, someone has to build them, and someone has to sell the equipment and materials. As I noted on another thread, the bill has been loaded down with relief measures and non-stimulus 'program' spending.
The relief measures (unemployment insurance funding, etc) may prove to be necessary, but I think they should be put forth in their own bill, where debate on them would not be lost. And as I stated in the other thread, the inclusion of relief measures is either a tacit admission that Congress doesn't think the stimulus package will work, or pandering to constituents.
Obama's direction was: Targeted, Timely and Temporary
There's stuff in there that defies each of those directives.
Pelosi has proven incapable of putting partisanship aside. She pretty much admits as much. Unfortunately if we are REALLY in an emergency situation, then pushing your own agenda to the detriment of the greater good (i.e., getting the stimulus bill out the door) makes as much sense as her delaying the first bailout bill by giving an unnecessarily partisan speech on the eve of the vote.
When stuff has been added to the bill, without any input from the minority party, that conflicts with the goals and intent of the bill AS STATED BY THE PRESIDENT . . . do you really expect or want the Republicans to march in lock step?
The problem is over-reaching by Congress, nothing new. It's his own party the President has been unable to keep in line.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - OptimisticOwl - 02-06-2009 02:35 PM
I am not trying to bash him, either. He is our president now, for better or worse, and we can have high hopes at the same time as low expectations.
Frankly, I expected it would take a longer time before we started seeing the cracks in his programs that i expected. I thought iIwould just check back in 6 months. But things change (or sometimes they don't), and his growing list of failed or bad nominations jumpstarted the criticism.
Ranger, we did argue about whether it made sense to put someone with virtually no managerial experience into the job of Chief Executive when we had the long and lengthy discusion on the importance or unimportance of executive experience. Check the archives and see what was being said and by whom vis-a-vis exectutive experience. Basically, people who wanted Obama and/or disliked Palin thought it was of no importance. Personally, i think we are seeing the first results of his OTJ training.
As for the rebate checks, I agree they are not a good choice, but a rebate and a tax cut are not the same thing. As for Caterpillar, they may not sell to you, but they do sell to businesses which might be more likely to buy if they had business tax cuts, and those businesses ogten sell to consumers who would be more likely to buy, say, a house, if they had more disposable income. Nobody is totally out of the loop.
Re: rednecks. To some people this term means "white Southern pickup-driving, gun-loving, Bible-thumping, ignorant, racist, conservatives". Not to me.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Hambone10 - 02-06-2009 02:48 PM
(02-06-2009 02:02 PM)JSA Wrote: As to partisanship, 0 House Republicans voted for the bill.
As to tax cuts vs. spending by 'bureaucrats,' I love tax cuts as much as the next person. But as we saw with the rebate checks last year, many people put theirs into saving accounts. Not necessarily a bad thing, but not the spur to spending that was hoped. And no personal tax cut, no matter how large, is going to induce me to buy anything from a struggling heavy-equipment manufacturer such as Caterpillar. I simply don't need what they make. They're more likely to helped by gov't funded infrastructure projects.
I'm sorry JSA, but this response is exactly the problem.
OBAMA was the one who campaigned on changing the tone, not the Senators... so while I'm not surprised Pelosi et al didn't try and attract any Republican votes, I'm surprised that Obama didn't put any pressure on them to do so... or better said,m failed to convince them. Pointing the finger at your opponent when you are guilty of it yourself is exactly what Obama said he was going to stop... yet he is doing it, and now so are his defenders.
I am so sick and tired of this "we're going to change"... then do the same thing... and say "they started it".
I haven't seen one single report that shows that significant amounts of any stimulus checks simply went into savings. I've seen reports showing savings have declined, not risen... so this statement doesn't seem likely.
Finally, I never said that government spending was all bad. Obama is the one who said that spending is stimulus, and that tax cuts were not. I take issue with that lie, and I have proven it to be so. I have even offered a superior alternative to one of the specific programs in the bill... that can STILL cut out those incentives for the rich and target the poor.
As to your specific comment about tractors... that's a bit silly, don't you think?? I'm not trying to convince you to buy a tractor, I'm trying to convince you to buy a car. If I want industry to buy a tractor, I can apply the same targeted economics I just described. Offer businesses incentives to buy tractors. Offer local governments incentives to build infrastructure... and yes, Federally funded projects... The point is, rather than send hundreds of billions to banks and have them sit on the money, why not find a way to involve them in the process. Rather than use 100% tax capital, why not find (where possible) private capital to supplement it. Failing to do so isn't just partisan, it's a waste of our tax dollars... and yes... stupid (not you... congress if they fail to maximize the use of "our" dollars)
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - JSA - 02-06-2009 03:21 PM
As to your specific comment about tractors... that's a bit silly, don't you think??
No, or I wouldn't have made it. Maybe I wasn't being clear, but I think we're pretty much in agreement. Tax cuts and spending need to be more focused if they're going to have the desired stimulus effects. As for the partisanship, we might have to agree to disagree.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - Hambone10 - 02-06-2009 03:30 PM
(02-06-2009 03:21 PM)JSA Wrote: As for the partisanship, we might have to agree to disagree.
I'm not willing to do that... seriously. I'll do it with you personally, but not systematically.
If we're going to end partisanship, then we can't see one party's use of it as okay and the others as not. How many Democrats didn't vote for the bill?? Those are the ONLY ones who you can say with any honest support were likely not acting in a partisan fashion. Of course, many Republicans voted a party line... but like some of the Democrats, SOME of them had honest objections. Are you going to tell me that every Democrat who voted for this bill believes this is the best we can do?
When a political novice like me who has only read small parts of this bill can point out a a portion of the bill that is so easily improved upon, it is highly likely that honest people who have read it in more detail can as well... and by voting against an obviously flawed bill... ESPECIALLY when they're spending 1 Trillion Dollars [/pinkie at cheek] are acting in the best interest of the country, rather than simply being partisan.
As to the tractors... I'm sorry, but I thought it was silly to ask about tractors when I'm only addressing the portion about cars... though I understand you better now... I STILL believe that the principles I alluded to there can still apply. There are provisions in the bill that target huge infrastructure projects that only the government can do... but they can STILL make them better and make better use of my money by attracting private investment to go along with tax dollars.
RE: ,Is Obama partisan, or just stupid? - JSA - 02-06-2009 03:37 PM
I'm not willing to do that... seriously. I'll do it with you personally, but not systematically.
Good enough.