(04-13-2013 11:01 PM)LastMinuteman Wrote:  The only teams on this list that are directly comparable are Georgia Southern and App State.

UTSA played a full WAC schedule last season and has been recruiting with FBS in mind for years. Their recruits have begun to mature. They don't belong in this poll.

Georgia State is playing this season with basically 1 month of FBS recruiting under their belt, like UMass did last year. The difference being, 2011 UMass would have beaten 2012 Georgia State by 4+ TDs. GSU would be the most doomed FCS upgrade ever, except that their schedule is relatively easy. They're playing 3 FCS teams and 2 recent FCS upgrades.

Charlotte isn't playing an even half-serious schedule until 2015. It's a total shot in the dark whether they're going to launch like Old Dominion or Georgia State. All we know for sure is that they're going to get 3 years of FBS recruiting in before they play a CUSA schedule, which is a big help.

App State and Georgia Southern are getting about 1 year+ of FBS recruiting, but they (along with Old Dominion) start out with vastly superior teams to the other names on the list. At the FCS level, they'd be the equivalent of SEC powers while the others are Sun Belt teams (Georgia State would still be FCS in that example). I predict Georgia Southern will be better early on because they have a reliable system that should somewhat diminish the talent gap, but I think App has the higher ceiling if they have success on the recruiting trail.

Finally, Old Dominion is only a half-step behind App and GaSo already, is moving into what is perceived as a better conference, and is getting 2+ years to recruit for FBS. Perhaps equally importantly, their AD was the AD at WKU for their FBS launch, and learned from all the mistakes they made. I think he's the biggest reason that ODU's FCS program has been so much better than the other brand new startups. Everyone else has been making these moves with noobs at the wheel.

It's almost unthinkable that ODU won't have the most successful FBS launch. They have every possible advantage.
It's almost unthinkable that GaState won't have the most disastrous FBS launch. They have every possible disadvantage.

(04-15-2013 07:49 AM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(04-13-2013 11:01 PM)LastMinuteman Wrote:  It's almost unthinkable that ODU won't have the most successful FBS launch. They have every possible advantage.
It's almost unthinkable that GaState won't have the most disastrous FBS launch. They have every possible disadvantage.

I made a homer vote for App State before reading this post which is very compelling. I still say App though because of an easier conference schedule first year than ODU will have.

(04-13-2013 11:01 PM)LastMinuteman Wrote:  Georgia State is playing this season with basically 1 month of FBS recruiting under their belt, like UMass did last year. The difference being, 2011 UMass would have beaten 2012 Georgia State by 4+ TDs. GSU would be the most doomed FCS upgrade ever, except that their schedule is relatively easy. They're playing 3 FCS teams and 2 recent FCS upgrades

(04-15-2013 08:47 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-13-2013 11:01 PM)LastMinuteman Wrote:  Georgia State is playing this season with basically 1 month of FBS recruiting under their belt, like UMass did last year. The difference being, 2011 UMass would have beaten 2012 Georgia State by 4+ TDs. GSU would be the most doomed FCS upgrade ever, except that their schedule is relatively easy. They're playing 3 FCS teams and 2 recent FCS upgrades

All true, but it's worth noting that Georgia State has a couple of rough pay-days on the schedule, too:
08/29: Samford (FCS)
09/07: UT-Chattanooga (FCS)
09/14: @West Virginia
09/21: Jacksonville State (FCS)
09/28: off
10/05: @Alabama
10/12: Troy
10/19: @Texas State (FBS/2012)
10/26: @UL-Monroe
11/02: Western Kentucky
11/09: off
11/16: UL-Lafayette
11/23: @Arkansas State
11/30: South Alabama (FBS/2012)

(04-15-2013 08:26 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-15-2013 07:49 AM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(04-13-2013 11:01 PM)LastMinuteman Wrote:  It's almost unthinkable that ODU won't have the most successful FBS launch. They have every possible advantage.

It's almost unthinkable that GaState won't have the most disastrous FBS launch. They have every possible disadvantage.

I made a homer vote for App State before reading this post which is very compelling. I still say App though because of an easier conference schedule first year than ODU will have.

I agree with LM but I voted for Appalachian because of the (perceived) easier schedule.

(04-15-2013 09:14 AM)rbostic287 Wrote:  (Georgia State) could easily go 0-12 or 2-10 this season.

Quote:I know most people on this board talk about potential and that's all well and good. But every program moving up has that same potential. I think that GaSt will pull in some recruits just by being in Atl but they still have to win. Atl is a fickle town when it comes to sports. For the most part Atl has a large population of transplants who when they moved were fans of other teams. In Ga that team is UGA that's some of the problem that GT has. The success and fans will not come overnight but winning will help.

(04-15-2013 09:53 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-15-2013 09:14 AM)rbostic287 Wrote:  (Georgia State) could easily go 0-12 or 2-10 this season.

Agreed. The way I see it, 5 games offer at least a plausible chance of victory, and 7 games are automatic losses, barring death or some extreme/unforeseen events. Of the 5 "winnables", I'm hoping Ga. State can win 3 of them.

Quote:I know most people on this board talk about potential and that's all well and good. But every program moving up has that same potential. I think that GaSt will pull in some recruits just by being in Atl but they still have to win. Atl is a fickle town when it comes to sports. For the most part Atl has a large population of transplants who when they moved were fans of other teams. In Ga that team is UGA that's some of the problem that GT has. The success and fans will not come overnight but winning will help.

Generatimg any significant fan-base or media-attention is very much a long term project for Georgia State.

(04-15-2013 10:17 AM)rbostic287 Wrote:  I see (Georgia State) topping out at around 32,000 to 35,000 over the next 20yrs on a good season. App St can get up to 50,000 or 52,000, ODU about the same and GaSo I see around 42,000 to 49,000. All great numbers and well above their current conference avg.

(04-15-2013 10:17 AM)rbostic287 Wrote:  

(04-15-2013 09:53 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-15-2013 09:14 AM)rbostic287 Wrote:  (Georgia State) could easily go 0-12 or 2-10 this season.

Agreed. The way I see it, 5 games offer at least a plausible chance of victory, and 7 games are automatic losses, barring death or some extreme/unforeseen events. Of the 5 "winnables", I'm hoping Ga. State can win 3 of them.

Quote:I know most people on this board talk about potential and that's all well and good. But every program moving up has that same potential. I think that GaSt will pull in some recruits just by being in Atl but they still have to win. Atl is a fickle town when it comes to sports. For the most part Atl has a large population of transplants who when they moved were fans of other teams. In Ga that team is UGA that's some of the problem that GT has. The success and fans will not come overnight but winning will help.

Generatimg any significant fan-base or media-attention is very much a long term project for Georgia State.

I am not expecting the fans to come to the games in droves but seeing the history of all fcs to fbs move-ups their attendence will increase. Not sure at what increase the attendence will go up but I am thinking 1,500 to 2,000 a year. I see them topping out at around 32,000 to 35,000 over the next 20yrs on a good season. App St can get up to 50,000 or 52,000, OUD about the same and GaSo I see around 42,000 t0 49,000. All great numbers and well above their current conference avg.

(04-13-2013 09:09 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  Old Dominion has the most talent, so I pick them.

(04-15-2013 10:32 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-15-2013 10:17 AM)rbostic287 Wrote:  I see (Georgia State) topping out at around 32,000 to 35,000 over the next 20yrs on a good season. App St can get up to 50,000 or 52,000, ODU about the same and GaSo I see around 42,000 to 49,000. All great numbers and well above their current conference avg.

What type of expansion plans does GaSo have in mind for Paulson?

(04-15-2013 11:24 AM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  

(04-15-2013 10:17 AM)rbostic287 Wrote:  

(04-15-2013 09:53 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(04-15-2013 09:14 AM)rbostic287 Wrote:  (Georgia State) could easily go 0-12 or 2-10 this season.

Agreed. The way I see it, 5 games offer at least a plausible chance of victory, and 7 games are automatic losses, barring death or some extreme/unforeseen events. Of the 5 "winnables", I'm hoping Ga. State can win 3 of them.

Quote:I know most people on this board talk about potential and that's all well and good. But every program moving up has that same potential. I think that GaSt will pull in some recruits just by being in Atl but they still have to win. Atl is a fickle town when it comes to sports. For the most part Atl has a large population of transplants who when they moved were fans of other teams. In Ga that team is UGA that's some of the problem that GT has. The success and fans will not come overnight but winning will help.

Generatimg any significant fan-base or media-attention is very much a long term project for Georgia State.

I am not expecting the fans to come to the games in droves but seeing the history of all fcs to fbs move-ups their attendence will increase. Not sure at what increase the attendence will go up but I am thinking 1,500 to 2,000 a year. I see them topping out at around 32,000 to 35,000 over the next 20yrs on a good season. App St can get up to 50,000 or 52,000, OUD about the same and GaSo I see around 42,000 t0 49,000. All great numbers and well above their current conference avg.

App has a lot of the "I went to App but I root for the TarHeels" fans. A generation at FBS will take some of that away but I don't see App ever pulling 50k on a regular basis. 35-40k seems like a reasonable ceiling.