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+---- Thread: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? (/thread-848651.html)
SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - Kruciff - 04-23-2018 09:13 AM
Link
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - Pony94 - 04-23-2018 09:20 AM
The Hawaii and Tulsa win probabilities are nice
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - slhNavy91 - 04-23-2018 09:29 AM
This is a good preview. I like Connelly's work so I'm not surprised I like it.
Let's set aside for a moment the headline / title -- I 'll get back to that.
- Connelly acknowledges "S&P+ is not designed to project service academies very accurately...returning production...recruiting rankings...Navy is projected 85th overall, I take that to mean something more like 70th."
- Stats say 7-6, key takeaway says bet on 8/9 wins. That's about where I am with this one.
- Talks about statistical performance on passing downs (yes, we were better with Reynolds and Worth)...but not the quantifiable, statistical reason we were in more passing downs: PENALTIES! Being 1st/2nd in penalties and penalty yards for a decade then suddenly stumbling to 9th/24th is significant. Penalties not even mentioned in the preview.
- So back to the headline/title: sure we could get better at passing, but Navy's successful season will DEPEND on cleaning up penalties and turnovers.
- He does hit the potential root cause - OC and QBs coach Jasper was a little distracted last season, with Jarren.
A little disappointed not to see Army (and predicted win) on the schedule chart.
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - Kruciff - 04-23-2018 09:43 AM
(04-23-2018 09:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: A little disappointed not to see Army (and predicted win) on the schedule chart.
I tweeted at Bill, and he should be fixing that shortly.
Not gonna lie, this review makes me more worried for our matchup in Orlando for senior night. Do you think there will be a strong visiting Navy crowd with the Naval base in Jacksonville so close?
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - slhNavy91 - 04-23-2018 10:25 AM
(04-23-2018 09:43 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: A little disappointed not to see Army (and predicted win) on the schedule chart.
I tweeted at Bill, and he should be fixing that shortly.
Not gonna lie, this review makes me more worried for our matchup in Orlando for senior night. Do you think there will be a strong visiting Navy crowd with the Naval base in Jacksonville so close?
Jacksonville, Tampa (at the various joint commands), Reservists aplenty in Orlando itself, and just grads and retirees in Florida. We may only have 50,000 living grads, but we are everywhere.
That said, you can't buy tickets that aren't available, so if you've really sold out, we won't have anymore than the visitors' allotment.
Wait a second, that's Veteran's Day weekend...I need to consider coming down myself. Two hour drive from Mom and Dad's and/or visit the sophomore in St Augustine...
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - Kruciff - 04-23-2018 10:28 AM
(04-23-2018 10:25 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:43 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: A little disappointed not to see Army (and predicted win) on the schedule chart.
I tweeted at Bill, and he should be fixing that shortly.
Not gonna lie, this review makes me more worried for our matchup in Orlando for senior night. Do you think there will be a strong visiting Navy crowd with the Naval base in Jacksonville so close?
Jacksonville, Tampa (at the various joint commands), Reservists aplenty in Orlando itself, and just grads and retirees in Florida. We may only have 50,000 living grads, but we are everywhere.
That said, you can't buy tickets that aren't available, so if you've really sold out, we won't have anymore than the visitors' allotment.
Wait a second, that's Veteran's Day weekend...I need to consider coming down myself. Two hour drive from Mom and Dad's and/or visit the sophomore in St Augustine...
Looks like your mind is already made up, hope you have fun in Orlando!
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - slhNavy91 - 04-23-2018 10:32 AM
(04-23-2018 10:28 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 10:25 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:43 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: A little disappointed not to see Army (and predicted win) on the schedule chart.
I tweeted at Bill, and he should be fixing that shortly.
Not gonna lie, this review makes me more worried for our matchup in Orlando for senior night. Do you think there will be a strong visiting Navy crowd with the Naval base in Jacksonville so close?
Jacksonville, Tampa (at the various joint commands), Reservists aplenty in Orlando itself, and just grads and retirees in Florida. We may only have 50,000 living grads, but we are everywhere.
That said, you can't buy tickets that aren't available, so if you've really sold out, we won't have anymore than the visitors' allotment.
Wait a second, that's Veteran's Day weekend...I need to consider coming down myself. Two hour drive from Mom and Dad's and/or visit the sophomore in St Augustine...
Looks like your mind is already made up, hope you have fun in Orlando!
UCF game was the only NMCMS game I've missed since moving back to the States before the '15 season, because I was in Jax/St Augustine for the then-college-freshman
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - thespiritof1976 - 04-23-2018 11:16 AM
8-5 and they beat Notre Dame. Heard it here first.
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - thespiritof1976 - 04-23-2018 11:17 AM
(04-23-2018 10:25 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:43 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: A little disappointed not to see Army (and predicted win) on the schedule chart.
I tweeted at Bill, and he should be fixing that shortly.
Not gonna lie, this review makes me more worried for our matchup in Orlando for senior night. Do you think there will be a strong visiting Navy crowd with the Naval base in Jacksonville so close?
Jacksonville, Tampa (at the various joint commands), Reservists aplenty in Orlando itself, and just grads and retirees in Florida. We may only have 50,000 living grads, but we are everywhere.
That said, you can't buy tickets that aren't available, so if you've really sold out, we won't have anymore than the visitors' allotment.
Wait a second, that's Veteran's Day weekend...I need to consider coming down myself. Two hour drive from Mom and Dad's and/or visit the sophomore in St Augustine...
Orlando used to be a nice Navy town when the NTC was at Baldwin Park. Used to love going to the Winter Park Mall on the weekends and seeing the Cadets on shore leave. Always good, clean cut kids. Man, I miss the 1980's.
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - slhNavy91 - 04-23-2018 12:22 PM
(04-23-2018 11:16 AM)thespiritof1976 Wrote: 8-5 and they beat Notre Dame. Heard it here first.
Wait a second - you say we beat ND, but lose five others? Which?
Since we're talking about Connelly's projection, all those we're below 50% win probability, maybe? That would be 3-5 in conference and a couple losses that I just don't see...
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - thespiritof1976 - 04-23-2018 12:31 PM
(04-23-2018 12:22 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:(04-23-2018 11:16 AM)thespiritof1976 Wrote: 8-5 and they beat Notre Dame. Heard it here first.
Wait a second - you say we beat ND, but lose five others? Which?
Since we're talking about Connelly's projection, all those we're below 50% win probability, maybe? That would be 3-5 in conference and a couple losses that I just don't see...
Because, IMO at least, Notre Dame (much like the CFP) is a media creation. In reality, they are a middling 7-5 ACC team.
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - KnightFanDave - 04-23-2018 01:40 PM
(04-23-2018 10:28 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 10:25 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:43 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: A little disappointed not to see Army (and predicted win) on the schedule chart.
I tweeted at Bill, and he should be fixing that shortly.
Not gonna lie, this review makes me more worried for our matchup in Orlando for senior night. Do you think there will be a strong visiting Navy crowd with the Naval base in Jacksonville so close?
Jacksonville, Tampa (at the various joint commands), Reservists aplenty in Orlando itself, and just grads and retirees in Florida. We may only have 50,000 living grads, but we are everywhere.
That said, you can't buy tickets that aren't available, so if you've really sold out, we won't have anymore than the visitors' allotment.
Wait a second, that's Veteran's Day weekend...I need to consider coming down myself. Two hour drive from Mom and Dad's and/or visit the sophomore in St Augustine...
Looks like your mind is already made up, hope you have fun in Orlando!
In case you weren't aware, the Naval Air and Warfare Center located in Research Park literally within UCF main campus property. There's at least 5,000 employees and most are retired/prior Navy service (although most are not alumnus of the Naval Academy, they're still big fans). That's just the civil service too, not counting all of the prior Navy service contractors that live in the area supporting the activity. I imagine Navy will show up big in Orlando. Should be a lot of fun.
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - thespiritof1976 - 04-23-2018 03:11 PM
(04-23-2018 01:40 PM)KnightFanDave Wrote:(04-23-2018 10:28 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 10:25 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:43 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:29 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: A little disappointed not to see Army (and predicted win) on the schedule chart.
I tweeted at Bill, and he should be fixing that shortly.
Not gonna lie, this review makes me more worried for our matchup in Orlando for senior night. Do you think there will be a strong visiting Navy crowd with the Naval base in Jacksonville so close?
Jacksonville, Tampa (at the various joint commands), Reservists aplenty in Orlando itself, and just grads and retirees in Florida. We may only have 50,000 living grads, but we are everywhere.
That said, you can't buy tickets that aren't available, so if you've really sold out, we won't have anymore than the visitors' allotment.
Wait a second, that's Veteran's Day weekend...I need to consider coming down myself. Two hour drive from Mom and Dad's and/or visit the sophomore in St Augustine...
Looks like your mind is already made up, hope you have fun in Orlando!
In case you weren't aware, the Naval Air and Warfare Center located in Research Park literally within UCF main campus property. There's at least 5,000 employees and most are retired/prior Navy service (although most are not alumnus of the Naval Academy, they're still big fans). That's just the civil service too, not counting all of the prior Navy service contractors that live in the area supporting the activity. I imagine Navy will show up big in Orlando. Should be a lot of fun.
Wow, didn't even know that. I thank you....FWIW though - man, I sure would rather have the NTC still there than a bunch of look a like cookie cutter yuppie houses....
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - TripleA - 04-23-2018 03:26 PM
(04-23-2018 03:11 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:(04-23-2018 01:40 PM)KnightFanDave Wrote:(04-23-2018 10:28 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 10:25 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:(04-23-2018 09:43 AM)Kruciff Wrote: I tweeted at Bill, and he should be fixing that shortly.
Not gonna lie, this review makes me more worried for our matchup in Orlando for senior night. Do you think there will be a strong visiting Navy crowd with the Naval base in Jacksonville so close?
Jacksonville, Tampa (at the various joint commands), Reservists aplenty in Orlando itself, and just grads and retirees in Florida. We may only have 50,000 living grads, but we are everywhere.
That said, you can't buy tickets that aren't available, so if you've really sold out, we won't have anymore than the visitors' allotment.
Wait a second, that's Veteran's Day weekend...I need to consider coming down myself. Two hour drive from Mom and Dad's and/or visit the sophomore in St Augustine...
Looks like your mind is already made up, hope you have fun in Orlando!
In case you weren't aware, the Naval Air and Warfare Center located in Research Park literally within UCF main campus property. There's at least 5,000 employees and most are retired/prior Navy service (although most are not alumnus of the Naval Academy, they're still big fans). That's just the civil service too, not counting all of the prior Navy service contractors that live in the area supporting the activity. I imagine Navy will show up big in Orlando. Should be a lot of fun.
Wow, didn't even know that. I thank you....FWIW though - man, I sure would rather have the NTC still there than a bunch of look a like cookie cutter yuppie houses....
I went through basic in Orlando in 1968, when it first opened up. Beat the hell out of doing it at Great Lakes. Was sorry to see it go.
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - thespiritof1976 - 04-23-2018 03:34 PM
(04-23-2018 03:26 PM)TripleA Wrote:(04-23-2018 03:11 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:(04-23-2018 01:40 PM)KnightFanDave Wrote:(04-23-2018 10:28 AM)Kruciff Wrote:(04-23-2018 10:25 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote: Jacksonville, Tampa (at the various joint commands), Reservists aplenty in Orlando itself, and just grads and retirees in Florida. We may only have 50,000 living grads, but we are everywhere.
That said, you can't buy tickets that aren't available, so if you've really sold out, we won't have anymore than the visitors' allotment.
Wait a second, that's Veteran's Day weekend...I need to consider coming down myself. Two hour drive from Mom and Dad's and/or visit the sophomore in St Augustine...
Looks like your mind is already made up, hope you have fun in Orlando!
In case you weren't aware, the Naval Air and Warfare Center located in Research Park literally within UCF main campus property. There's at least 5,000 employees and most are retired/prior Navy service (although most are not alumnus of the Naval Academy, they're still big fans). That's just the civil service too, not counting all of the prior Navy service contractors that live in the area supporting the activity. I imagine Navy will show up big in Orlando. Should be a lot of fun.
Wow, didn't even know that. I thank you....FWIW though - man, I sure would rather have the NTC still there than a bunch of look a like cookie cutter yuppie houses....
I went through basic in Orlando in 1968, when it first opened up. Beat the hell out of doing it at Great Lakes. Was sorry to see it go.
From 1976....year I was born...FWIW....I still think it was stupid to close the base though....politics.....
![[Image: USS_Blue_Jacket_training_ship_at_NTC_Orlando_c1976.jpg]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e7/USS_Blue_Jacket_training_ship_at_NTC_Orlando_c1976.jpg)
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - thespiritof1976 - 04-23-2018 03:41 PM
Here is an out there question:
Were there any Navy players ever stationed at the RTC in Orlando ? (either before they played at Navy -or- perhaps after their playing career was over)
Probably not, but still an interesting question I guess anyway...
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - slhNavy91 - 04-23-2018 09:05 PM
(04-23-2018 12:31 PM)thespiritof1976 Wrote:(04-23-2018 12:22 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:(04-23-2018 11:16 AM)thespiritof1976 Wrote: 8-5 and they beat Notre Dame. Heard it here first.
Wait a second - you say we beat ND, but lose five others? Which?
Since we're talking about Connelly's projection, all those we're below 50% win probability, maybe? That would be 3-5 in conference and a couple losses that I just don't see...
Because, IMO at least, Notre Dame (much like the CFP) is a media creation. In reality, they are a middling 7-5 ACC team.
I think this assessment underestimates ND a little, but not too much. To be clear, my point wasn't that if we beat ND, ZOMG, that will mean we're good enough to beat everyone else!!1!
No, if we beat ND it will look a lot like our '16 win over them: play error free Navy football, get just one or two stops, and hold onto the ball at the end.
I'm just asking, if ND isn't one of our losses, where are five? If you look at Bill C's predictions <50%, that includes two shots to avenge a '17 loss at home, and two road games against AAC teams we're 4-0 against.
I don't see us losing all five of @UCF, Memphis, Houston, @Cincy, & @SMU. In fact I see us winning 2-3 of those. 1-1 in the AAC +50% tossups, and we're not at 5 losses yet.
As always, we COULD go 1-12.
But we could go 12-1 or 13-0, too.
RE: SBNation AAC Preview - Navy: 2018 season could depend on... passing? - sierrajip - 04-23-2018 10:57 PM
What a memory rush. Lived for one year across the street from the NTC with my wife after we were married near the Executive Airport on Colonial Dr. in Orlando. Remember seeing the recruits training when I was off during the week.