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TV $ and Realignment Prediction - NBPirate - 06-28-2018 10:51 AM
AAC gets $8-12 million per team next round, resulting in others joining.
If not BYU, some from this group:
SDSU
Boise
Colorado State
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - ken d - 06-28-2018 10:55 AM
(06-28-2018 10:51 AM)NBPirate Wrote: AAC gets $8-12 million per team next round, resulting in others joining.
If not BYU, some from this group:
SDSU
Boise
Colorado State
Which in turn results in that $8 million payout coming down.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - NBPirate - 06-28-2018 11:05 AM
(06-28-2018 10:55 AM)ken d Wrote:(06-28-2018 10:51 AM)NBPirate Wrote: AAC gets $8-12 million per team next round, resulting in others joining.
If not BYU, some from this group:
SDSU
Boise
Colorado State
Which in turn results in that $8 million payout coming down.
Once the money discussions evolve, I would imagine the AAC and its television partners would explore expansion as a means to maximizing value. I didn't mean for it to sound like an A to B step.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - TexanMark - 06-28-2018 11:06 AM
(06-28-2018 10:55 AM)ken d Wrote:(06-28-2018 10:51 AM)NBPirate Wrote: AAC gets $8-12 million per team next round, resulting in others joining.
If not BYU, some from this group:
SDSU
Boise
Colorado State
Which in turn results in that $8 million payout coming down.
Not necessarily...they could build in a relook
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - Hokie Mark - 06-28-2018 11:30 AM
(06-28-2018 10:55 AM)ken d Wrote:(06-28-2018 10:51 AM)NBPirate Wrote: AAC gets $8-12 million per team next round, resulting in others joining.
If not BYU, some from this group:
SDSU
Boise
Colorado State
Which in turn results in that $8 million payout coming down.
I'm sure they'd have a "composition clause" which would trigger a renegotiation, and I'm sure the network(s) would agree to pay an extra $8M for each of the teams listed.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - MWC Tex - 06-28-2018 11:34 AM
Delusions of grandeur.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - Attackcoog - 06-28-2018 11:47 AM
(06-28-2018 10:51 AM)NBPirate Wrote: AAC gets $8-12 million per team next round, resulting in others joining.
If not BYU, some from this group:
SDSU
Boise
Colorado State
IF---something like this was to happen (and I dont think it will--though I think it could be a great idea), it would likely be largely worked out during the actual TV contract negotiations. In other words, Aresco would discuss the expansion with the networks prior to any deal and--if the network was interested in paying for such an expansion---it would be written into the contract. Then, Aresco would take the deal to the MW schools so they would know EXACTLY what they would be getting if they decided to join. Thats the only way I could see it happening.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - Wedge - 06-28-2018 11:57 AM
(06-28-2018 11:47 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:(06-28-2018 10:51 AM)NBPirate Wrote: AAC gets $8-12 million per team next round, resulting in others joining.
If not BYU, some from this group:
SDSU
Boise
Colorado State
IF---something like this was to happen (and I dont think it will--though I think it could be a great idea), it would likely be largely worked out during the actual TV contract negotiations. In other words, Aresco would discuss the expansion with the networks prior to any deal and--if the network was interested in paying for such an expansion---it would be written into the contract. Then, Aresco would take the deal to the MW schools so they would know EXACTLY what they would be getting if they decided to join. Thats the only way I could see it happening.
Right. The existing schools would only vote in a new member if it means that all of the existing schools make significantly more money than they would have made if that new school was not included.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - templefootballfan - 06-28-2018 12:36 PM
P5 conf have expanded, 9 conf games or neutral site games when negotiating thier next contract
AAC tought they would get a bump from NAVY, 3 games over 2yrs is a little bump
Dropping 1AA games would help, guaranteing 65-70 div-1games
splitting the packup to diferrant suiters
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - ChooChoo - 06-28-2018 01:33 PM
(06-28-2018 10:51 AM)NBPirate Wrote: AAC gets $8-12 million per team next round, resulting in others joining.
If not BYU, some from this group:
SDSU
Boise
Colorado State
I say let the MWC and BYU be. They fill a niche for the Mountain and Pacific time zones. AAC should stay within the Eastern and Central.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/atlanta.curbed.com/platform/amp/2018/6/25/17501336/census-atlanta-philadelphia-population-growth
I may be biased but Atlanta is about to surpass Philly as the #8 Metro in the nation. I’d think a growing university there with new facilities and easy access to New Orleans, Memphis, Tampa, Orlando, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia via the nation’s premier airport would be much more appealing than trecks to Ft Collins and Boise for all sports.
I know hardliners are resistant to “start-up” programs infecting the ranks of the old guard but I’m telling you, it’s gonna happen. Maybe sooner than fans expect. I say the sooner we start collaborating the better.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - NBPirate - 06-28-2018 01:39 PM
We're not adding anyone outside of the ones I mentioned aside from AF/Army. Period.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - Stugray2 - 06-28-2018 02:01 PM
More likely AAC gets less than $3m per school. And that is with Navy surrendering their independent deal (except Army and Notre Dame games), which is more valuable than the other 11 schools combined.
There is no market for a 5th Eastern/Central Time Zone conference. ACC, SEC, B1G, B12 have all the Saturday slots. The only thing available are overflow channels. Maryland vs Indiana and Virginia vs Syracuse will always be placed above any AAC offering.
This is why the MAC has an all weeknight November, to get ESPN slots. The AAC wont do that so they wont get those spots, and they wont get any power conference premium.
But hey, keep drinking the Aresco is Great Kool-Aid.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - NBPirate - 06-28-2018 02:03 PM
(06-28-2018 02:01 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: More likely AAC gets less than $3m per school. And that is with Navy surrendering their independent deal (except Army and Notre Dame games), which is more valuable than the other 11 schools combined.
There is no market for a 5th Eastern/Central Time Zone conference. ACC, SEC, B1G, B12 have all the Saturday slots. The only thing available are overflow channels. Maryland vs Indiana and Virginia vs Syracuse will always be placed above any AAC offering.
This is why the MAC has an all weeknight November, to get ESPN slots. The AAC wont do that so they wont get those spots, and they wont get any power conference premium.
But hey, keep drinking the Aresco is Great Kool-Aid.
LOL!!!!!
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - Attackcoog - 06-28-2018 02:06 PM
(06-28-2018 01:39 PM)NBPirate Wrote: We're not adding anyone outside of the ones I mentioned aside from AF/Army. Period.
Yup--BYU, Army, and AF are the only ones that would likely pay enough to be worth adding.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - Attackcoog - 06-28-2018 02:17 PM
(06-28-2018 02:01 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: More likely AAC gets less than $3m per school. And that is with Navy surrendering their independent deal (except Army and Notre Dame games), which is more valuable than the other 11 schools combined.
There is no market for a 5th Eastern/Central Time Zone conference. ACC, SEC, B1G, B12 have all the Saturday slots. The only thing available are overflow channels. Maryland vs Indiana and Virginia vs Syracuse will always be placed above any AAC offering.
This is why the MAC has an all weeknight November, to get ESPN slots. The AAC wont do that so they wont get those spots, and they wont get any power conference premium.
But hey, keep drinking the Aresco is Great Kool-Aid.
lol....The AAC will easily get 4 million a team just from recapturing their second tier rights currently sold to CBS-Sports (which the AAC doesnt make a dime on) and the addition of the Navy rights (which were never part of the original deal). My guess is somewhere between 6-8 million per team. Everything is currently pointing to NBC clearing out space to make a run at the AAC. Its a perfect economical big bang for the buck property that would serve as a great value oriented entry point for an expanded college football presence on NBC/NBC-Sports. Even the recent contracts of the Sunbelt and CUSA doubled to quadrupled from their previous old values (CUSA's doubled from a deal signed just 2 years ago). Based on that alone, its almost inconceivable that the current 2 million per team AAC contract would stay below 3 million per school this time around.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - bullet - 06-28-2018 05:30 PM
(06-28-2018 02:01 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: More likely AAC gets less than $3m per school. And that is with Navy surrendering their independent deal (except Army and Notre Dame games), which is more valuable than the other 11 schools combined.
There is no market for a 5th Eastern/Central Time Zone conference. ACC, SEC, B1G, B12 have all the Saturday slots. The only thing available are overflow channels. Maryland vs Indiana and Virginia vs Syracuse will always be placed above any AAC offering.
This is why the MAC has an all weeknight November, to get ESPN slots. The AAC wont do that so they wont get those spots, and they wont get any power conference premium.
But hey, keep drinking the Aresco is Great Kool-Aid.
They've got to find someone besides ESPN and Fox to carry a lot of games. Better, they need someone to get a piece of the A5 who would need the AAC to fill in open time slots.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - bullet - 06-28-2018 05:31 PM
(06-28-2018 02:17 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:(06-28-2018 02:01 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: More likely AAC gets less than $3m per school. And that is with Navy surrendering their independent deal (except Army and Notre Dame games), which is more valuable than the other 11 schools combined.
There is no market for a 5th Eastern/Central Time Zone conference. ACC, SEC, B1G, B12 have all the Saturday slots. The only thing available are overflow channels. Maryland vs Indiana and Virginia vs Syracuse will always be placed above any AAC offering.
This is why the MAC has an all weeknight November, to get ESPN slots. The AAC wont do that so they wont get those spots, and they wont get any power conference premium.
But hey, keep drinking the Aresco is Great Kool-Aid.
lol....The AAC will easily get 4 million a team just from recapturing their second tier rights currently sold to CBS-Sports (which the AAC doesnt make a dime on) and the addition of the Navy rights (which were never part of the original deal). My guess is somewhere between 6-8 million per team. Everything is currently pointing to NBC clearing out space to make a run at the AAC. Its a perfect economical big bang for the buck property that would serve as a great value oriented entry point for an expanded college football presence on NBC/NBC-Sports. Even the recent contracts of the Sunbelt and CUSA received doubled to quadrupled from their previous old values (CUSA's doubled from a deal signed just 2 years ago). Based on that alone, its almost inconceivable that the current 2 million per team AAC contract would stay below 3 million per school this time around.
NBC could be one of those to tie into. The AAC could fill in when Notre Dame wasn't at home and provide some doubleheaders.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - Stugray2 - 06-28-2018 08:43 PM
This is the same delusional thinking they had in 2010 and 2011. NBC is not going to carry AAC football. If they want any college football they will target a P5 conference, not some overflow channel G5 conference. They American will find itself at the trough with CBSSN (which is pretty much peanuts payment) and the ABC/ESPN/FOX megalith like everyone else. They will be begging ESPN to carry Houston vs Tulsa and UCF vs ECU instead of Boston College vs Georgia Tech or Maryland vs Wisconsin on the 2nd or 3rd channel.
The only thing ESPN will pay for is 2-4 games a year which turn out to be compelling to a national audience because some school goes on a run. But the rest of the content is bargain bin stuff competing against the power games ad the overflow power conference B and C games in the same time slots. Don't kid yourself into thinking the Memphis-Temple or UConn-Tulane or USF-SMU games suddenly has more value than your generic B1G, ACC or SEC game on at the same time. And certainly don't think even the biggest game of the year in your conference will hold a candle to the Alabama-Tennessee or Ohio State-Penn State game on at the same time. Those are market realities, and why the American will not get anywhere near the money you want it to get, or even the low "improvement" number of $4m per school (still not enough to make those $50m per school B1G or SEC even do more than snicker). You will see the expenses rise much faster for your programs than the media money.
Keep drinking the Kool-Aid
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - Flying Bearcat v 2.0 - 06-28-2018 08:45 PM
IMO, if the AAC were to get new members as part of the new TV deal, it will be with Dayton and VCU. As a UD fan/alum, I know there were rumblings for us joining the AAC. It would not be unprecedented with the addition of WSU last year.
RE: TV $ and Realignment Prediction - Attackcoog - 06-28-2018 09:05 PM
(06-28-2018 08:43 PM)Stugray2 Wrote: This is the same delusional thinking they had in 2010 and 2011. NBC is not going to carry AAC football. If they want any college football they will target a P5 conference, not some overflow channel G5 conference. They American will find itself at the trough with CBSSN (which is pretty much peanuts payment) and the ABC/ESPN/FOX megalith like everyone else. They will be begging ESPN to carry Houston vs Tulsa and UCF vs ECU instead of Boston College vs Georgia Tech or Maryland vs Wisconsin on the 2nd or 3rd channel.
The only thing ESPN will pay for is 2-4 games a year which turn out to be compelling to a national audience because some school goes on a run. But the rest of the content is bargain bin stuff competing against the power games ad the overflow power conference B and C games in the same time slots. Don't kid yourself into thinking the Memphis-Temple or UConn-Tulane or USF-SMU games suddenly has more value than your generic B1G, ACC or SEC game on at the same time. And certainly don't think even the biggest game of the year in your conference will hold a candle to the Alabama-Tennessee or Ohio State-Penn State game on at the same time. Those are market realities, and why the American will not get anywhere near the money you want it to get, or even the low "improvement" number of $4m per school (still not enough to make those $50m per school B1G or SEC even do more than snicker). You will see the expenses rise much faster for your programs than the media money.
Keep drinking the Kool-Aid
Stopped reading after the second sentence. NBC bid on the AAC in 2013 with every intention of placing AAC games on both NBC-Sports and the big flagship NBC-OTA. The current exposure the AAC receives is actually the direct result of the 2013 AAC/NBC negotiation. In other words, in order to sign the AAC in 2013, ESPN had to MATCH the signed offer from NBC that was agreed to by the AAC. Its hard to discuss a topic like this when you are this ill informed. Todays AAC is light years ahead of the perception of the AAC in spring 2013 when NBC signed a deal with the AAC, so there is zero reason to believe NBC would be unwilling to show AAC football today.
Look, we are a bargain. Around 50% of the ratings for 20-25% of the price. The last open market P5 contract went for about 30 million a team. We arent worth anything close to that. But, are we worth 20-25% of that? I think a very reasonable argument could be made for that. MLS Soccer and the US Premier League rights are at or below the AAC ratings wise---and they get paid 75-160 million a year. At the lower end of that range (100 million), the AAC would be getting just over 8 million a team. So---I think my 6-8 million a year estimate is fairly reasonable.