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Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 02-29-2024 09:10 AM
33 TCU Sat @ 10 BYU Q1-lost 75-87
34 Nevada Fri vs 217 Fresno St Q4-won 74-66
35 Colorado St Sat vs 170 Wyoming Q4-won 70-62
36 Michigan St Sat @ 2 Purdue Q1-lost 74-80
37 Florida Atlantic Sat vs 140 Tulane Q3-won 79-73
38 Texas Sat vs 114 Oklahoma St Q3-won 81-65
39 Virginia Sat @ 13 Duke Q1-lost 48-73
40 New Mexico Sat @ 26 Boise St Q1-lost 79-89
----first four------
41 Seton Hall Sun @ 4 UConn Q1-lost 61-91
42 Gonzaga Thu @ 54 San Francisco Q1-won 86-68 Sat @ 15 Saint Mary's Q1-won 70-57
43 Wake Forest Sat @ 60 Va Tech Q1-lost 76-87
44 Providence Sat vs 32 Villanova Q2-lost 60-71
----cutline---------
69 Villanova Sat @ 56 Providence Q1-won 71-60
70 St John's off until Tue
71 Utah Thu vs 116 Stanford Q3-won 90-68, Sat vs 115 Cal Q3-won 88-59
72 Colorado Sun vs 116 Stanford Q3-won 81-71
73 Kansas St Sat @ 45 Cincinnati Q1-lost 72-74
74 Iowa Sat @ 48 Northwestern Q1-won 87-80
75 James Madison Fri @ 322 Coastal Carolina Q4-won 86-76
76 Ole Miss Sat @ 149 Missouri Q3-won 84-78
77 Drake Sun vs 58 Bradley Q2-won 74-66
78 Texas A&M Sat @ 97 Georgia Q2-won 70-56
79 Syracuse Sat @ 209 Louisville Q3-won 82-76
80 Oregon Sat @ 3 Arizona Q1-lost 83-103
81 Pittsburgh Sat @ 91 Boston College Q2-won 90-65
82 Memphis Thu @ 173 East Carolina Q3-won 82-58 Sun vs 126 UAB Q3-won 106-87
83 Cincinnati Sat vs 74 Kansas St Q2-won 74-72
84 UNLV Sat vs 239 San Jose St Q4-won 68-50
85 Butler Sat @ 319 DePaul Q4-won 82-63
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - The Cutter of Bish - 02-29-2024 01:18 PM
Spotlight's on Gonzaga tonight.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 02-29-2024 01:19 PM
(02-29-2024 01:18 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote: Spotlight's on Gonzaga tonight.
Yeah a huge 48 hours for them.
and how often do you have a game with the last team in the tourney and the 1st team out of the tourney.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 02-29-2024 10:40 PM
so far not much tonight on the bubble. but here comes Gonzaga at the top of the hour.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - shizzle787 - 02-29-2024 11:22 PM
Seeing as the Big East is literally right in the thick of things, I thought I would share some knowledge I gleaned:
Since the New Big East began in 2013/14 there have been nine NCAA tournaments. Not including the 2021 tournament as Big East teams did not play a full non-conference schedule due to COVID, here are the win totals on Selection Sunday for Big East teams that did not win the BET:
21+ wins: Every single Big East team with 21 wins on Selection Sunday made the dance.
20+ wins: All but two Big East teams with at least 20 wins on Selection Sunday made the tournament (13/14 St. John's and 15/16 Marquette who both had exactly 20 wins)
19 wins: two out of the four teams to have exactly 19 wins on Selection Sunday made the field
18 or less wins: never has a New Big East team with 18 or less wins on Selection Sunday made the field
The moral of the story: if a Big East team gets to 20 wins by Selection Sunday, they will almost be assured to be in the field.
Therefore, it is highly likely we will see Providence, St. John's, and Seton Hall hearing their names on Selection Sunday. Not so much for Villanova and Butler.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 02-29-2024 11:35 PM
(02-29-2024 11:22 PM)shizzle787 Wrote: Seeing as the Big East is literally right in the thick of things, I thought I would share some knowledge I gleaned:
Since the New Big East began in 2013/14 there have been nine NCAA tournaments. Not including the 2021 tournament as Big East teams did not play a full non-conference schedule due to COVID, here are the win totals on Selection Sunday for Big East teams that did not win the BET:
21+ wins: Every single Big East team with 21 wins on Selection Sunday made the dance.
20+ wins: All but two Big East teams with at least 20 wins on Selection Sunday made the tournament (13/14 St. John's and 15/16 Marquette who both had exactly 20 wins)
19 wins: two out of the four teams to have exactly 19 wins on Selection Sunday made the field
18 or less wins: never has a New Big East team with 18 or less wins on Selection Sunday made the field
The moral of the story: if a Big East team gets to 20 wins by Selection Sunday, they will almost be assured to be in the field.
Therefore, it is highly likely we will see Providence, St. John's, and Seton Hall hearing their names on Selection Sunday. Not so much for Villanova and Butler.
Providence to get to 20 wins needs to beat either Nova on Saturday, UConn next Saturday, or get a meaningless game in the BET(which I don't think will be enough).
Seton Hall to get to 20 needs to beat either Nova next Wednesday or win in likely 4/5 game vs a likely 19 win St John's team.
Butler is out.
Nova if they can beat both Providence and Seton Hall gets to 18 wins. With a ton of really good wins- they'd be up to 5 Q1 wins and 6 Q2 wins. I think they would be in with that.
Things really could go any way for the Big East.
Oh, and as far as your 20 win data, yes all but 2 made the tourney. But it looks like that's out of 5 teams. Not exactly overwhelming data at all.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 03-01-2024 12:00 AM
It's March!!!!!!
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - C2__ - 03-01-2024 12:10 AM
(03-01-2024 12:00 AM)stever20 Wrote: It's March!!!!!!
Not so fast my friend, 5 more time zones have to wait their turn.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 03-01-2024 12:12 AM
13-0 run for Gonzaga.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - C2__ - 03-01-2024 12:15 AM
Boy, Gonzaga's not playing around in the second half. They're clicking on all cylinders, although USF is playing like crap to start the half. They certainly pass the eye test of a team that can not only get in the Dance but cause some damage if they get in.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 03-01-2024 12:18 AM
(03-01-2024 12:15 AM)C2__ Wrote: Boy, Gonzaga's not playing around in the second half. They're clicking on all cylinders, although USF is playing like crap to start the half. They certainly pass the eye test of a team that can not only get in the Dance but cause some damage if they get in.
Gonzaga going to be a team that if you're a top 1-3 seed, you don't want to see them in your bracket at all. Your reward for a 1-2 seed is a matchup with Gonzaga in round 2.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - C2__ - 03-01-2024 12:25 AM
They're not getting in as anything higher than an 11 unless a bunch of teams ahead of them lose out or close to it and/or they beat St. Mary's twice. I may be able to see a 10 if the second scenario comes to pass but not an 8/9.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - C2__ - 03-01-2024 12:30 AM
Nebraska loses to Ohio State.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 03-01-2024 12:33 AM
(03-01-2024 12:25 AM)C2__ Wrote: They're not getting in as anything higher than an 11 unless a bunch of teams ahead of them lose out or close to it and/or they beat St. Mary's twice. I may be able to see a 10 if the second scenario comes to pass but not an 8/9.
well on this bracketology they were an 11. If they beat St Mary's twice, along with tonight- yeah 10 seems like floor, and 8/9 seems to get pretty easy to see.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - C2__ - 03-01-2024 12:37 AM
(03-01-2024 12:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:(03-01-2024 12:25 AM)C2__ Wrote: They're not getting in as anything higher than an 11 unless a bunch of teams ahead of them lose out or close to it and/or they beat St. Mary's twice. I may be able to see a 10 if the second scenario comes to pass but not an 8/9.
well on this bracketology they were an 11. If they beat St Mary's twice, along with tonight- yeah 10 seems like floor, and 8/9 seems to get pretty easy to see.
This bracketology is not what the committee is will necessarily do, although I don't discount it's possibility.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - C2__ - 03-01-2024 12:42 AM
Nebraska loses at Ohio State. What do you think of those teams?
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 03-01-2024 12:45 AM
(03-01-2024 12:37 AM)C2__ Wrote:(03-01-2024 12:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:(03-01-2024 12:25 AM)C2__ Wrote: They're not getting in as anything higher than an 11 unless a bunch of teams ahead of them lose out or close to it and/or they beat St. Mary's twice. I may be able to see a 10 if the second scenario comes to pass but not an 8/9.
well on this bracketology they were an 11. If they beat St Mary's twice, along with tonight- yeah 10 seems like floor, and 8/9 seems to get pretty easy to see.
This bracketology is not what the committee is will necessarily do, although I don't discount it's possibility.
Lunardi has them as a 11 as well right now. avg seed on the Matrix right now for them is 10.78. Add to that potentially 3 Q1 wins and yeah pretty safe to say that 10 is the floor for them, and 8/9 is quite reasonable to see.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 03-01-2024 12:49 AM
(03-01-2024 12:42 AM)C2__ Wrote: Nebraska loses at Ohio State. What do you think of those teams.
Ohio State going to get real interesting real quick. Only problem for them is 2 games left- Michigan and @ Rutgers. Those 2 are must win, and then still need to do damage in the Big Ten tourney.
Nebraska could get bubbly here. They have Rutgers and @ Michigan. If they won both of those, I think they're safe.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - C2__ - 03-01-2024 12:59 AM
What an impressive second half performance by the Zags. I don't care what happens from here on out. For one, they likely have no ability to take on a bad loss anymore and second they not only looked like an NCAA Tournament team tonight but a team that should be wearing the home jerseys in the first round. They definitely pass the eye test.
RE: Bubble Watch 2/29/24 - stever20 - 03-01-2024 01:02 AM
(03-01-2024 12:59 AM)C2__ Wrote: What an impressive second half performance by the Zags. I don't care what happens from here on out. For one, they likely have no ability to take on a bad loss anymore and second they not only looked like an NCAA Tournament team tonight but a team that should be wearing the home jerseys in the first round.
only way they could have a bad loss is whoever plays USF beats them and then they upset Gonzaga in the SF. But that's pretty unlikely obviously.