RE: Latest G5 Realignment article
I think the article writer fails to understand the difficulty in what he is suggesting, given the football bias of FBS. But in FCS you can and do see Football only conferences (e.g., Pioneer League, Missouri Valley Football Conference). It would require a rule change at FBS level, and the existing G5 would be against it, because all realignment would happen to them (no incentive to leave a power conference, as they are also major conferences for Basketball).
But the idea has merit, especially if you project ahead a few years as football's power wanes. The attendance for FBS peaked back in 2010, and were it not for the SEC rising for several years after the peak before beginning to slip, the drop would have been even more noticeable. We have seen G5 TV contracts shrivel in value as the P5 dominate ever more of the money. Recruits see than and the last three years we have seen the NFL draft tilt 70% to those 65 schools, 90% of rounds 1 and 2. If anything, it's tilting even more toward these schools. But the costs of keeping up with the Jones is rising far faster than revenues at G5 schools, including the American, which are essentially flat. There is no $1.5M per school built in increase in media revenue, no network revenue, etc, so it all has to come from borrowing and heavy subsidies. UConn is about to enter a period where they are going to have to cut athletic expenses several millions, and others are about to hit that wall as well. A really large school in a state with more applicants than spots, such as UCF or USF, could tack on $100 fee per student and raise $5M more and so can keep pace for another 5 to 7 years. But more constrained programs like Memphis, Cincy, Temple, and ECU, even Boise State, can't do that. Heck ECU fills the stands, but most of those pay next to nothing (Students, school in the middle of nowhere) and only generate $4M in gate for ALL athletics (by comparison Rutgers, the weakest supported B1G school gets nearly $15M in gate revenue with less than full stands).
The addition of Wichita State showed that even the American, for all the propaganda (aka "marketing") about football, realized they could generate more revenue from Basketball than from any additional football school. This is a reality for many conferences.
I could easily see UConn (to get in the Big East and turn around their Basketball fortunes), UMass (need a FB conference as they are A10), ODU (CUSA is not what they wanted, A10 looks appealing, but FB in the way) would jump at something like this. Liberty is another that would work for. ODU is not the only CUSA member upset with where they are. USM would want to move, although where they put their Basketball is anyone's guess. UAB flirted with the Missouri Valley for Basketball when Football was temporarily halted. So there is interest. Football only option might make a move by JMU attractive, as they are another potential A10 member along with ODU. I'm not sure the SBC is in much risk, but CUSA definitely would be.
I file this concept under the "revisit in the near future" (i.e., maybe 3-4 years from now) to see if the conditions have changed, especially if football's decline accelerates. (FWIW, I think football has another decade before the decline starts to have truly big significance).
(This post was last modified: 02-25-2018 04:18 PM by Stugray2.)
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