Here's my assessment:

1) Clearly, ECU has the inside track to the G5 Access Bowl spot. It is theirs to lose. The AP and Coaches poll make that clear. No, the CFP is not obligated to follow those polls, but there is no reason to believe that their thinking would be significantly different either. It is clear that the consensus is, as of now, that ECU is the best G5 team and they would certainly get the Access bid if the determination was being done today.

Still, I don't think they are anything like a given for it, for three reasons:

1) They already have a loss, which IMO means they have no further margin for error. One loss is absorbable, but if they were to lose again, I think that loss would loom larger. It will be difficult for the committee to declare a two-loss team as the best of the G5.

ECU is seemingly in good shape because they have nothing but AAC games remaining, but they are not the 85 Bears so many of these games will be dangerous.

2) Another factor that will be in play here is how current #13 South Carolina's season unfolds. If they go on to have an excellent year, that will make ECU's loss to them seem very understandable and it won't hurt is much. But if SC collapses, then the loss will look worse than it does now. SC does play a relatively soft SEC East schedule, but there are minefield games nonetheless. Clearly, it is in ECU's interest that SC keep winning.

3) The fate of UNC and VT. Maybe the biggest reason why the loss to SC hasn't hurt ECU much is that they have those notable wins against ACC rivals, both of which got big play in the national media. But, the lustre of those wins will fade if UNC and VT both fade out. UNC almost certainly will lose a few more times so that win will not look as good two months from now.

More ominous for ECU was VT's loss to Georgia Tech this past weekend. It would be great for ECU if VT were to maintain their status as a ranked team, but that is now questionable. VT's national profile soared thanks to their win at Ohio State, but two losses have diminished. Further losses by VT hurts ECU.

IOW's, it's far too early to be fitting ECU for the G5 slipper. Lots can happen over the next 8 weeks.