(04-17-2018 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(04-17-2018 03:03 PM)Win5002 Wrote:  

(04-16-2018 01:05 PM)RocketCitySooner Wrote:  

(04-15-2018 07:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Part of the fun of following realignment as a topic has been the endless speculation of who will go where and why, and which conference might be pursuing this or that school and why, and getting into the numbers that make moves possible or probable.

That was realignment 2009-12.

Realignment in '92 was some rumor and little talk until moves happened.

The next realignment which might well occur anytime between this Summer and 2023 won't happen that way at all.

There will be virtually no rumors or leaks as to what may be happening. The reason for this is that the next time around the conferences won't be doing the pursuing. The contract holding networks likely already know the preferences of each of the P5 conferences. The next time around it will be the networks who are seeking to nail down rights deals that will likely do the negotiating themselves because there is so much at stake for them that they can't afford the university president who loves publicity dropping not so sublte hints to the press, or the informed donor who thinks he's been told and wants the limelight, and they won't want the lag time for negativity to build if a move is desired, so what I expect is that the networks will line up the schools whose rights they want and will then inform the conference of how much they will be making for taking them. Then when the details have been worked out and new contracts signed the moves will simply be announced and boards like this one can spend hours debating the wisdom of the moves as opposed to hours speculating and debating possible moves.

So, when does this happen? I'm thinking the Summer after the 2019 NCAA Basketball tourney is over if the Carrier involved in the rights acquisitions is ESPN or FOX. Why? Once their deal is solidified then playing hardball for rights makes sense, unless they have already worked it out and then announcing the agreement would also make sense once they have solidified their current transaction.

For ESPN the opportunity would exist to move any independent or Big 12 properties to majority held conferences like the ACC or SEC and to renegotiate existing contracts and extend them beyond their current expiration dates. This would permit ESPN to lock down those rights without having new competitors entering into the process. The same contingency exists for FOX. So whether going head to head or winking and moving with an accord this timeline and method favors them, but waiting until their current deal is finalized makes the most sense whether they go head to head or have worked it out.

How you might ask could this be done? Well it could be done if all of the Big 12 schools were accounted for in a parsing. If they were certain of new P5 homes then dissolving the Big 12 with 8 votes would be very possible and avoiding the punishment of the GOR possible if all 10 are safe and secure. Why accommodate all 10? It's probably cheaper than bidding against new competitors for their rights in 2023, especially if FOX and ESPN who currently split those rights simply agree to split the parsing, or if FOX is moving away from the college market to let ESPN go ahead and secure them now that the success of ESPN profits FOX anyway.

If the process drags out until 2023 then look for possible new bidders to be involved. And again this time I think whole conferences will be locked up. With the PAC and Big 12 coming up in 2024 and the SEC Tier 1 in 2025 and the Big 10 roughly the same time, would FOX and ESPN want to risk losing the bulk of the B1G contract or possibly missing out on picking up the SEC's T1 (currently CBS contract)? I don't think so. Now the PAC content is a whole other matter and the ACC rights won't be up until 2036.

The PAC owns its own network. So if it decides to sell out to a carrier that also could come at anytime and they likely would be getting new competitors involved since those leasing their property now haven't been exactly helpful in carriage.

So if and when this breaks I think the moves will be well orchestrated ahead of time by those with the most to lose, the carriers, and the conferences, (PAC excepted) will by and large be passive beneficiaries of those moves. So the distributions of those schools involved might well depend on whether ESPN is seeking the rights, FOX is seeking the rights, or a third party is seeking them, and when the moves are made and whether the PACN sells out or not. In other words it will be wide open.

So we will all still have plenty to speculate about, but waiting on a leak, a source close to the source, or listening to a Blue Dude of Minnesota will be wholly irrelevant.

Compounding the confusion, and possibly the timeline, for these next moves will be the outcome of the Federal Court's consideration of stipend caps, the FBI's culmination of Corporate Shoe endorsements and perks offered to players and coaches, and of course the changing dynamics of distribution.

My bet is that ESPN with or without FOX might well want to take advantage of their unique positioning with regard to the Big 12 and if so the 2019 timeline works well considering the launch of the ACCN and what might be likely a push to gain them a broader distribution. Locking down what they already count upon and augmenting the existing contracts prior to outside interference would be a great defensive move. But as with all of this, "We'll see."

Another point in favor of your argument is this: it's possible, even likely, that Fox/ESPN may move preemptively to secure TV rights before new competitors (Google/Amazon/Facebook) can get involved. In this scenario, it is in the interests of Fox/ESPN to work cooperatively to secure the properties they want with the least amount of exposure.

With GOR's through 2024-2025 it becomes harder to do this before the new competitors get involved if you don't find homes for at least 8 of the 10 schools, some argue the legal battles could prevent it unless they find homes for all 10. So it would seem securing properties of a limited amount of schools will be hard for ESPN/FOX to do soon enough to ward off competition from the tech companies.

It can be done. But it would probably require some shifting of some schools beyond the Big 12 to accomplish it equitably for more than two conferences and with FOX cooperation. If ESPN handles it in house they could do it between the SEC and ACC but it would be a more awkward fit.

I wasn't trying to say it couldn't be done especially if everyone found homes, I was saying it would be very hard to do what Rocket City Sooner usually advocates in taking 4 of the schools and leaving the rest without a new home.