(10-17-2018 01:53 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-17-2018 12:26 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2018 10:46 AM)usffan Wrote:  

(10-17-2018 10:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2018 09:42 AM)usffan Wrote:  You're right - the way this has been constructed, there's no contract that's being broken. But it's the same as saying "any kid in the United States can grow up to be president." In reality, we all know that isn't close to true, because you have to have the right combination of name/wealth ("blue blood") and appeal, so in reality there are at best 20 people right now who have any chance at becoming/remaining president in 2020.

But we see all the time that things can change. Outsiders have the ability to build enough momentum to buck those trends (ahem, 2016). And any system where a group of people just pick the four participants based on fuzzily-defined criteria that move every year will result in a change to the status quo. I'm willing to bet bank that it won't remain as the 4 team playoff after this term. What will facilitate that is the very real prospect that:

Notre Dame runs the table
Georgia doesn't lose again and beats Alabama in the SEC championship game
Michigan wins out, including a squeaker over Ohio State
Clemson wins out
Texas wins out
Oregon wins out
USF wins out (because, hell, why does it need to be UCF in these scenarios?)

What does the playoff committee do? They'd be staring at:

Undefeated Notre Dame
Undefeated ACC Champ Clemson
1-loss SEC Champ Georgia
1-loss SEC runner up Alabama
1-loss B1G champ Michigan
1-loss Ohio State (who wouldn't even make their title game)
1-loss Big 12 champ Texas
1-loss Pac 12 champ Oregon (who lost on a fluke)
an undefeated G5 champ USF

I don't see any way the committee doesn't take Notre Dame and Clemson in this scenario, and I also think they'd take Georgia and Alabama. That leaves the B1G, the Big 12 AND the Pac 12 out, not to mention the G5 conferences. You can bet your butts that that will change the playoff ASAP.

FWIW, in your scenario, I think the playoff teams would be Notre Dame, Clemson, Georgia, and Michigan, and it wouldn't be very controversial.

Alabama got in over Ohio State last year because OS had two losses. In your scenario, Michigan would only have one loss, and a better loss than Texas, so Alabama and Texas are out.

As for the future (2025 and beyond), it wouldn't surprise me if they go to an 8-team playoff. The past 25 years the trend line has been in that direction, from no playoff to a two-team playoff to a four-team playoff. But nothing will change the four-team format until 2025, at most, if there is some big outcry over something, the selection process might be tweeked - maybe making being a conference champ mandatory except for independents, or maybe adding a computer element to supplement the committee, etc. But it will be four teams until 2025, IMO. That's how it was with the BCS, even under congressional pressure, they never changed the basic two team format during the duration of the contract, they just made some changes to how the two teams (and BCS bowls) were selected. Even the addition of the BCS title game in 2006 didn't alter the basic format of the process.

For my scenario, you may be right. But let's say that somehow Wisconsin rights the ship and beats Michigan in the B1G championship game. Now I don't think there's a question Bama gets in over Ohio State. The driver is that if 3 of the A5 conferences are left out of the playoff, that's going to expedite change. Another scenario is Clemson drops one, which likely locks the ACC out in the above scenario. Imagine the heads exploding if only one conference champ (Georgia in my scenario above) gets in?

I honestly don't think heads would explode in that scenario. Conference champs get left out every year, it's the nature of the system because there are just four playoff spots.

The last two years, two P5 champs have been left out, and nobody has complained. So far, in four years of the CFP, there have been 20 P5 champs, 14 have made the playoffs but 6, fully 30%, have not. Everyone seems fine with that.

Basically, everyone knows that every year, four teams will make the playoffs, and so lots and lots of other teams will be left out. There aren't any illusions about that.

Obviously I differ in opinion. This is like the Kevin Bacon "Remain calm! All is well!" bit from Animal House. If 1 loss A5 conference champions were left out, I think it will not be as easily accepted as you do.

USFFan

We had that the first year when Baylor was left out. People got over that pretty quickly.