(12-26-2018 11:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-26-2018 11:23 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  

(12-26-2018 06:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-25-2018 09:25 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(12-24-2018 10:35 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Sounds about right.

If this comes to pass it'll be yet another ACCBBS fantasy that went down in flames. That the reason for the delay was to ensure that they were able to negotiate all of their carriage rates. Kind of hard for that to be true if we are going to have to endure a couple years of "brutal carriage fights".

The success or failure of the ACC Network is what it has always been: does it help close the massive revenue gap between us and the SEC/Big 10.

If the ACCN fails to generate enough revenue to satisfy Carolina or Florida State, then JR may get really happy.
The SEC would finally reel in the 'noles and would make another run at Texas. If ESPN thinks the 'Horns need to move west, the SEC might double up in South Carolina (big risk even with Clemson's content factor).
Carolina, which has now reached the top 5 in research, will with Georgia Tech in tow, will trot off to the B1G for a huge payday.
Whats left of the ACC: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, UVa, VT, NCSU, Wake Forest, Duke, Miami, Louisville will pick up Notre Dame as a full member along with West Virginia to remain a 12 team league.

Would Wake even survive in that scenario? That would probably be dependent upon whether Clemson stayed or went. If Clemson left I doubt the remaining members would vote to keep Wake around since with BOTH football powerhouses gone they couldn't afford the perception of the two perceived albatrosses in football (Duke and Wake) hanging around the new league's necks. One could stay but unlikely both. Duke with its extreme value as a basketball power would win out over Wake which just doesn't have that kind of cache. Besides, I have always said in the modern era of college athletics the state of North Carolina simply does not warrant more than two teams in a single conference.

The FSU/Clemson-less remnants would likely add WVU, UCF, and Cincy to get to 12 all of whom would add equal value to the departing UNC, GT, and Wake while ND would remain indy for football with a modified scheduling arrangement with the new conference of 4 games a year but with no contractual stipulation of ever having to join the conference in the future. After all the new league would be far below the Irish's standards. But the new 12 team league would have perfect geographical balance and sensible rivalries in Pitt-WVU, SU-BC, VT-UVA, NCST-Duke, UL-UC, and Miami-UCF.

ESPN might even try to convince the league to consider a partial hybrid conference of 12/4 and get Georgetown, Villanova, and St. John's from the Big East so the basketball tournament could be played annually at MSG instead of having it rotated in order to get boring Greensboro in as part of the rotation.

And if that were successful, they might even want the league to sue and get the Big East name for the conference if that happened since why bother calling the conference the ACC when only three original members remain while eight are former Big East members. It's not as though the ACC EVER thought BIG anyway, might be best to disassociate from that loser name.

You know, I am actually starting to like this post-apocalyptic scenario. Let's face it - the true losses would be FSU and Clemson anyway. So what does the rest matter?

All in good fun, X-Lance.

Cheers,
Neil

If North Carolina becomes available to the Big 10 I would think they would add more than two and the SEC would as well. Virginia Tech would become an SEC prospect and possibly Duke/or N.C. State if the Big 10 didn't go after them.

It's hard to say what the mix would be but if N.D. still said "Nyet" to the Big 10 then 'Cuse, UNC, UVa, and Ga Tech might be appealing to them from a market and split political influence perspective.

Texas or Oklahoma from the West along with F.S.U. and Clemson (from a branding perspective) and perhaps a North Carolina or Virginia school would do it for us. We may not even look further West in that scenario.

I think the ACCN will yield 7 to 10 million within 5 or 6 years of startup. I just don't think that will close the gap with the SEC or Big 10 who also will be getting further boosts.

Hail JR!

My post was basically tongue-in-cheek to X's post about UNC and GT heading off to the Big Ten AFTER the SEC took FSU and possibly Clemson or one of Texas/OU. Which I am sure you knew, but for others who weren't sure, it was. However, in all seriousness now...

IF the SEC did start the dominoes falling by taking some combo of FSU with one of Texas/OU/Clemson that takes TWO of the best available content drivers off the table for the Big Ten. For these purposes let's say the SEC took FSU and OU.

For Delany's league to keep pace with the SEC, it's true rival for collegiate sports domination, it would have to pursue two of Texas, ND, and Clemson since while the Top 4 in the Big Ten (OSU, Mich, PSU, MSU) are cumulatively slightly better than the Top 4 in the SEC now (Ala, UGA, Fla, LSU), the SEC runs 7 teams deep (the previous 4 plus TAMU, Tenn, and Aub) and adding two more would tip the scales in terms of content drivers in the SEC's favor significantly. In order to keep pace the Big Ten would have to add two significant content drivers from amongst Texas, ND, and Clemson none of whom truly fit in the Big Ten or have a huge desire to join that league currently. But for sake of argument, let's say they get Texas and ND spooked by the SEC's move and hold their noses while joining the Big Ten.

Now further expansion beyond 16 is certainly possible at that point, so the SEC inviting two of Clemson, VT and NCST and the Big Ten inviting two of UNC, UVA and GT is likely - but the Big Ten's first response to the SEC taking FSU and OU will not be to get two of those three, not if they have any hope of keeping pace with the SEC. I don't see them "settling" for "market and political influence" candidates at all. But I have been known to be wrong before.

As for the ACCN, my predication remains the same that it has been for a while now $5-7 million per school in the first two-three years, $10-12 million per school thereafter. The power of the mouse is too strong now especially when they are bundling all of their respective channels together in one package ESPN, ESPN2, Disney Channel, SECN, and soon to be acquired FX all are in the Top 30 of current fees paid by subscribers each month.

But even with a slightly more favorable outlook on the ACCN than yourself (although yours is perfectly fine as well), I do agree the ACC will have a hard time to catch up with the B1G and the SEC. First it needs to get ahead of the B12 and PAC. PAC will probably happen within two years while getting ahead of the B12 might take a little longer due to that conference having one-third less mouths to feed.

As always, a pleasure.


Neil