With several weeks left to play, the dust is starting to settle in conference races, and a bracket is starting to take shape...

...except for the non-majors.

Last year, there was a disparity in RPI and KP with Wichita State. KenPom loved the Shockers...RPI, not so much. It didn't matter in the end, and Wichita grabbed the auto-bid. Illinois State, otoh...

This year, there are several teams looking very good in one place, and not so hot in the other. And, as major conference programs are seeing their places secured into the RPI 40's and now 50's, where it puts these non-majors, with the added tiering component to qualify any given record, who is really in, and who is not, even if they don't win their conference's auto bid?

Checking out Warrennolan, Rhode Island (9) and Nevada (14) would look like locks, but, both have 1-3 marks versus "Group 1" opponents. UNR has some KenPom love at 17, you have to look down the rankings a bit to find Rhodie...at 34.

Gonzaga is this year's Wichita State. While 4-3 versus Group 1 teams, and KenPom crushing hard at 9, RPI's got them in that horrible bubble zone, 57th, and behind the likes of Temple, Houston, and Georgia, with clubs like Maryland and SMU right behind them. SMC is more loved by the two metrics, 22 RPI, 11 KP...but only a combined 4-1 versus Groups 1 and 2. Nobody expects either to lose again except to the other...is there really room for both in this tournament? And if Gonzaga doesn't get the better of SMC again...is AQ their only hope (by way of a SMC WCC tournament early exit)?

There are others posing some questions with odd numbers...MTSU (24 RPI/41 KP) and Buffalo (31/81), and some with closer-matching ones like WKU (38/45), Boise State (40/47), and NMSU (46/40). None of them look like locks, even if some could probably play the second weekend.

I'm left to wonder, what's the safety threshold for any of these teams? Must they all win AQ, or, who really can "slack off" just a bit during their conference tournaments?