At this point, in mid-February, if the bracket "consensus" has a team among the top 9 seeds, they're in unless they have a really bad run down the stretch, i.e. they probably have to lose at least 3 to be out.

If the "consensus" is that a team is 10 or 11, they're barely on the good side of the bubble. Realistically a team from a non-power conference, if they're not looking like a top-9 seed today, is either going to have to win their autobid or win pretty much every game before their conference tournament final. A team from a power conference that is projected on the bubble often has the chance to pick up a high-quality win among their remaining games to balance out a loss, but teams that don't have any remaining top-30 opponents will have their chances damaged more by any loss.