(03-07-2018 03:57 PM)bullet Wrote: (03-07-2018 12:48 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: (03-07-2018 12:33 PM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote: (03-07-2018 12:29 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: [quote='UTSAMarineVet09' pid='15140657' dateline='1520443223']
I swear, if I bet a dollar every time Tom made a wrong prediction, I would be a millionaire by now.
That's not a prediction, that's the vote totals. You're free to go to the Texas SOS website and look up the Democratic and Republican primary turnout numbers for 2014, 2016, and 2018 and compare them.
Dems up by 90 percent. GOP up by about 10-15. That's versus 2014. Versus 2016, Dems went down by 26 percent and the GOP went down close to 40 percent.
Margin in primary voting in 2014: GOP 70-30. Margin 2016: GOP 63-37... Margin this year 60-40.
Again, it could have better for the Dems, but doubling 2014 is still a good place to work from. We've got 8 months and in Texas, general elections are usually FAR more favorable to the Dems than primaries are.
you did not make any predictions on post #4?
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I thought you were complaining about my post on turnout
LOL. I did. There will be exactly 1 Republican representing Harris County at large after this election. Every single other countywide official is going to lose. Every single judge (save Ed Emmitt - he's the one that will hold on to his seat) will lose. County Treasurer. County Clerk. Every single at large seat save County Judge.
CD-7 is probably flipping too. Especially when you realize that while pretty much everyone who is voting in the Dem primary will vote for whoever the Dem is and that the voters who voted against Culburtson in the Republican primary wont be supporting Culbertson - they're Democrats who voted in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing it. This whole DCCC vs Moser isn't really going anywhere either. She won't win and her supporters will still support Fletcher. And if she does win, everyone will support her as well. Remember, Republicans are supposed to outperform in primaries. Culbertson had a very bad night.
CD-23 is probably gone too. That district is just going to be a very hard retention in 2018. Its 75% minority. And Hurd had a hard time carrying it last time. Any movement to the Dems is fatal to him.
CD-32 is looking pretty good for a pickup at this point. Its a legit 50-50 district, but that's a real flip opportunity even now.
You guys did pull CD-2 off the table for now. Gosh, Kath-a-leen Wall would have been a gift from heaven for the Democrats.
Culberson is more likely to get back up to 60% than he is to lose. He got 56% with the Trump albatross in 2016 in a solid, but moderate Republican district. Republicans can take district 7, the district of George HW Bush (67-71) and Bill Archer (71-01) and Culberson since to the bank.
LOL. The 23% percent who voted against him in the GOP Primary were Democrats voting in the GOP primary for Sarah Davis and voted against Culbertson while they were doing so.
To the bank? That's a bold statement. LOL. He got 56% against James Cargas in 2016. I know James. He's nice, but he's not a serious candidate. Basically he got 56% running against a random name on the ballot. He had no money either (btw, half the Dems running against Culbertson are raising money faster than he is). BTW, he ran yesterday as well for the Dem nomination. He came in dead last out of 7 candidates, gaining exactly 2 percent of the vote. As a 2 time nominee, that should give you an idea how formidable Cargas is as a campaigner. 56% against that competition, even in a Clinton +2 district isn't exactly a sign of strength. Culberson has two very tough candidates running in the Dem runoff that are going to be VERY well funded and both of them are VERY tough campaigners. There are lots of Republicans living in that district that don't like Culbertson AND his district is gaining thousands of new voters each month (and they don't appear to be Trumpers either - a lot of the new residents of the district are coming from out of state). He's no moderate, but a doctrinaire right winger that has the added detraction of not being particularly liked by the Trumpers either. One potential mitigation is that while Lupe Valdez at the top of the ticket helps the Dems elsewhere, White would be better in CD-7. But either way, I think any rational view of that result last night for Culbertson would be that he's in as much trouble as we're saying he is. Only thing that helped him was that Weston didn't make the Dem runoff. But I think that means Fletcher, who is really polished and will outraise him, is likely to be the nominee.
We shall see in November, but I'm feeling really good about the Dems chances in that district. Heck, the GOP primary (which featured a really, really, really nasty race for State Rep in it - that drew in LOTS of voters - and a LOT of voters that have no intention of voting for Culbertson in November) only outdrew the Dem primary in the district by 2 percent. And in District 7, which has historically been VERY Conservative, that's an amazing development.
60%? No way. 56%? No way. 50.1%? Unlikely, but possible.
Basically last night took CD-2 further away from a pickup. But I think CD-32 went closer to a pickup and CD-23 is still looking dire (and by dire - I mean REALLY dire) for the GOP. CD-7, I'd say its somewhere between 'lean Dem' and 'likely Dem' at this point.
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BTW, I'm just chuckling thinking of, in the unlikely case that Culbertson hangs on through 2021 in that district, how the Texas GOP intends to gerrymander the Heights/Montrose/Galleria/Bellaire to try and keep Anglo Dems from having a seat in Congress. TX-2 is getting more Hispanic in its north. so keeping the Heights/Montrose portion of it in that district isn't going to work on a 10 year redistrict. TX-7 can't afford any more Democratic voters. The VRA will prevent much more dilution of Ron Green's, Lee's, or Gene Green's seats either. And TX-10 is kind of looking tenuous too going forward (not this year, unless there's a truly massive blue wave - but in 2 or 3 cycles - sure). Olsen's district is experiencing Demographic changes too. My guess is that some of the surrounding district's Congressmen (and candidates) actually WANT the Dems to take the seat, because otherwise there's going to be a death fight to try and avoid having Houston West of Downtown and East of the Beltway in their districts. Then they can just pack all their Anglo Dem voters into that seat and try to save themselves.
