MICHIGAN VS APPALACHIAN STATE

-This deserves its own section, but there is more analysis of everything else that happened last week linked below.

-Obviously the biggest and most surprising thing that happened over the weekend was Appalachian State’s upset win over Michigan. It’s hard to say exactly how this will impact the BCS because no ranked team has ever lost to a 1AA team, much less a top five team who many thought would contend for the BCS Title. I do know how it will impact the computers, and it probably won’t be as bad as people think. Hopefully this won’t sound too much like Math Class.

Three of the six computers (Sagarin, Massey and Wolfe) rate 1AA teams along with 1A teams. The top ranked teams in 1AA generally rank in the 50s in these computer polls. That’s better than more than half of the 1A teams. Appalachian State could end up being ranked even higher than that, but it’s hard to say how much higher. These computers will treat this loss about the same way they’d treat Michigan losing to the 7th or 8th place Big Ten team, and maybe not even that badly.

Colley’s poll doesn’t even factor in games that are played with 1A teams. This policy seems to be a good one because he doesn’t want to give credit where credit isn’t due, I guess. Why credit a team for beating a 1AA team?? In this case, however, Michigan gets a free pass. In his poll, the game never even happened.

The Anderson-Hester and Billingsey polls will hurt Michigan the most. Essentially, these computers treat it as if they lost to the worst ranked 1A team. However, since your lowest computer ranking is thrown out, only one of these polls will be factored in to Michigan’s final BCS rating. The highest ranking is thrown out as well, which probably be Colley’s poll.

I think it is safe to say that Michigan is out of the national championship picture barring some very strange things happening between now and the end. However, the same thing can be said for most teams that lose a game at any point. Michigan is still alive for the BCS, though. Obviously if they win the Big Ten they will go to the Rose Bowl, but even if they don’t this loss, at least from the vantage point of the computers, won’t drag them down to the point where they can’t be selected as an at-large.

-Whereas the computers are easy to predict, it's harder to predict how the voters will treat Michigan because nothing like this has really happened before so there is no frame of reference. All I know is that if I had a vote, they would not be in my top 25.

-As far as the game goes, I still would like to know what the thought process was behind Appalachian State’s decision to kick the go-ahead field goal on first down with 30 seconds to play. Not only that, but they were on the far left hash, which is a tough place to kick from. Deciding to not center the ball with a running play and kick on second down allowed Michigan to get the ball back with enough time to get themselves into field goal range. It also made the kick a more difficult one. I guess it made the finish a much more dramatic one, though, with what would have been the winning field goal being blocked.

Appalachian State’s offense was awesome in the first half. They had no second half touchdowns, but did have a dropped ball in the end-zone, as well as another missed field goal. They also had a big time drive when it counted, which allowed them to kick the winning field goal.

Michigan’s defense was as bad as Appalachian State’s offense was good. I think it was a combination of both. Oregon will score 60 on the Wolverines if they play like that again next week.


MORE FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

-I don’t think people realize that Appalachian State, along with some of the other top 1AA teams, are better than about half the 1A teams. Appalachian State would probably be favored to win the Sun Belt and MAC conferences. They’d also probably be able to make a lower tier bowl, such as the Motor City Bowl, if they played in the Big Ten.

Something like this was bound to happen sooner or later. I’m stunned that it happened against a team that appeared to be as good as Michigan, but it isn’t the first time a 1AA team has given a big time 1A program a scare. The year Pittsburgh went to the BCS, they needed overtime to get by Furman. That Furman team wasn’t as good as this Appalachian State team. That same season, Western Kentucky hung in with Kansas State, who was ranked in the teens at the time.

When Marshall made the jump to 1A, they were a bowl caliber team right away, so in their final years as a 1AA team they could compete at a high level. Florida Atlantic managed to win six games against 1A schools in their transitional season from 1AA to 1A. Connecticut and South Florida faired pretty well as well in their transitional years.

That being said, no ranked 1A team has ever lost to a 1AA team, so this is a pretty historic event. However, we won’t be able to say for certain how big a deal it was until the end of the year. If Michigan is on their way to the BCS, it’s a huge deal. If Michigan is on their way to 5-7, it really isn’t.

-Although Arkansas State is a 1A team, they probably aren’t as good as Appalachian State. That team gave Texas a run for their money this past Saturday as well. That would have been a more improbable upset, but it probably wouldn’t have gotten the attention that the Michigan loss received due to the fact that Arkansas State is 1A.

-Appalachian State is also better than last year’s Ball State team, who also nearly beat Michigan. In fact, Michigan probably played better on Saturday against Appalachian State, than they did last season against Ball State. A big deal was not made last season because Michigan was able to win the game, but they did not look good doing it. Had they played like that on Saturday, they would have been beaten by more than just a field goal.

-Remember that day back in 2003 when the MAC went nuts?? It was September 20th, and in one day Northern Illinois beat Alabama, Toledo beat Pittsburgh, Marshall beat Kansas State, and Bowling Green nearly beat Ohio State. At the time, all four of those teams were highly ranked and all but Alabama went on to have big years. Appalachian State’s win was big, but I still rate that day as the most surprising day of college football, at least in my lifetime.

CLICK HERE TO SEE THE ANALYSIS FROM THE REST OF THE OPENING WEEK

xubrew Wrote:-As far as the game goes, I still would like to know what the thought process was behind Appalachian State’s decision to kick the go-ahead field goal on first down with 30 seconds to play. Not only that, but they were on the far left hash, which is a tough place to kick from. Deciding to not center the ball with a running play and kick on second down allowed Michigan to get the ball back with enough time to get themselves into field goal range. It also made the kick a more difficult one. I guess it made the finish a much more dramatic one, though, with what would have been the winning field goal being blocked.

1. They have 4 snaps to get the hold down perfect, if a bad snap the holder can spike it stop the clock and go for it again.

2. Michigan must hold some players back to prevent a fake field goal, thus allowing app. state better blocking oppurtunity.

Im sorry im not reading anything that long right now, I might try again later.

Quote:I don’t think people realize that Appalachian State, along with some of the other top 1AA teams, are better than about half the 1A teams. Appalachian State would probably be favored to win the Sun Belt and MAC conferences. They’d also probably be able to make a lower tier bowl, such as the Motor City Bowl, if they played in the Big Ten.

BINGO! As a fan of I-AA football, I have been saying this for years. Some people just refuse to believe that. Great I-AA first string talent matches up with I-A talent. Depth is what seperates the two divisions.

bleed blue and gold Wrote:

xubrew Wrote:-As far as the game goes, I still would like to know what the thought process was behind Appalachian State’s decision to kick the go-ahead field goal on first down with 30 seconds to play. Not only that, but they were on the far left hash, which is a tough place to kick from. Deciding to not center the ball with a running play and kick on second down allowed Michigan to get the ball back with enough time to get themselves into field goal range. It also made the kick a more difficult one. I guess it made the finish a much more dramatic one, though, with what would have been the winning field goal being blocked.

1. They have 4 snaps to get the hold down perfect, if a bad snap the holder can spike it stop the clock and go for it again.

2. Michigan must hold some players back to prevent a fake field goal, thus allowing app. state better blocking oppurtunity.

You run to the middle and give yourself 3 chances... if you can't get a good snap/hold on 3 tries you don't deserve to win.

ETSUfan1 Wrote:

Quote:I don’t think people realize that Appalachian State, along with some of the other top 1AA teams, are better than about half the 1A teams. Appalachian State would probably be favored to win the Sun Belt and MAC conferences. They’d also probably be able to make a lower tier bowl, such as the Motor City Bowl, if they played in the Big Ten.

BINGO! As a fan of I-AA football, I have been saying this for years. Some people just refuse to believe that. Great I-AA first string talent matches up with I-A talent. Depth is what seperates the two divisions.

Im really not buying that, but I guess there really isnt any way to prove it.

Think of it this way if you are a top level recruit why would you ever go to a AA school? I dont follow recruiting that closely but If I had offers from one bottom level D I A team and a bunch of I AA teams Id pick the A team every time.

Terpy Wrote:

ETSUfan1 Wrote:

Quote:I don’t think people realize that Appalachian State, along with some of the other top 1AA teams, are better than about half the 1A teams. Appalachian State would probably be favored to win the Sun Belt and MAC conferences. They’d also probably be able to make a lower tier bowl, such as the Motor City Bowl, if they played in the Big Ten.

BINGO! As a fan of I-AA football, I have been saying this for years. Some people just refuse to believe that. Great I-AA first string talent matches up with I-A talent. Depth is what seperates the two divisions.

Im really not buying that, but I guess there really isnt any way to prove it.

Think of it this way if you are a top level recruit why would you ever go to a AA school? I dont follow recruiting that closely but If I had offers from one bottom level D I A team and a bunch of I AA teams Id pick the A team every time.

any number of reasons. a full ride is a full ride. some may want to go to a 1AA school that's closer to home. some may like the overall university better. some may feel that playing time is an issue. i think the biggest reason, as general as this may sound, is that they feel they'll achieve a higher level of success at a 1aa school that wins eight or nine games a year than at a sun belt, mac or cusa school that wins struggles to win more than two or three games a year.

Terpy Wrote:Im really not buying that, but I guess there really isnt any way to prove it.

Think of it this way if you are a top level recruit why would you ever go to a AA school? I dont follow recruiting that closely but If I had offers from one bottom level D I A team and a bunch of I AA teams Id pick the A team every time.

Where did one of the best WR's come from(Jerry Rice)? How about one of the all-time greatest RBs (Walter Payton)?

I never said talented players never came from D I AA schools, Brian Westbrook of the Eagles played at Villanova, there are a handful of exceptionally talented players that play at the D I AA level, but the overall talent doesnt stack up to that of D I schools.

Also, I think it is important to note that Rice and Payton both played in the SWAC a conference that has historically produced a lot of great football talent.

Would you rather go to App State and play for a team that has just won 2 national titles in a row and beat Michigan. Or would you rather go to Louisianna Lafayette, where you will get shalacked by the big boys and split your games in the Sun Belt?

Honestly Id much rather go to LA Lafayette, but maybe its just me, atleast then Id get a chance to play in some of the all time classic stadiums every once in awhile, even if I am going to get shalacked.