Quote:SUSAN SARANDON, who appeared in three films last year and won kudos for her TV movie "Bernard and Doris," is still not a contented soul. She says if John McCain gets elected, she will move to Italy or Canada. She adds, "It's a critical time, but I have faith in the American people."

what VP helps McCain the most, seems like a real dilema to me.

Huckabee to shore up the South and most of the evangelical base. Since Obama does well and will get out the minority vote? plus his charisma and communication abilities...

this ticket would inevitablly piss off a segment of GOP voters...


OR, a more limited govt. perceived choice like Sue Myrick, Sanford, Coburn.......or eye candy choices like Palin



Or, Romney for money and orginization. plus he might deliver Michigan.

all 3 options seems to me could force a fragment of GOP voters to not vote, stay home or go 3rd party this cycle. repeat of 92....

Okay... don't shoot me for relaying what a VERY active Clinton backer told me was the concern of the Dem. party...

Using (as I recall) NC as the example... Obama won something like 99% of the African-American vote, and the state is 45% A-A... which means he only needed to win 6% of the NON A-A vote to win the state. He won something like 10%... swept the state 55-45... and that this was a common occurrence... that Obama won virtually 100% of the A-A vote, and only a minority of the non-A-A... HILLARY won the vast majority of the non-A-A, and given a choice between McCain and Hillary, Hillary would draw a similar percentage of the African-American vote to Obama... but given a choice between Obama and McCain, Obama wouldn't win as much of the NON A-A vote, and Obama wouldn't draw enough Republican A-A's (arguably because there aren't enough of them) to make up for it.

Again... don't shoot me... this was a synopsis of a comment from a VERY well placed Democrat in her campaign. It's why they honestly believe that even though Obama may be more popular with the party, that Hillary has a better chance of beating McCain.

So... While the race card MIGHT work in a party where a significant number of people are "of that race"... it is less important when that race is a minority nationally, and an even greater minority in the opposing party.

McCain would be well-advised to select a candidate that would draw from a LARGER minority within the "middle"... Women. Sure, he might p.o. the far right, but that would only mean they wouldn't vote... NOT that they'd vote for the left.

I don't like politics for this reason... because certain segments of the population can be intentionally ignored... but it is what we have made it... Republicans don't generally support A-A issues because A-A's generally wouldn't vote for them anyway. Note the use of the word GENERALLY. i realize this has changed somewhat... but I fear this election will swing the pendulum the other way... ESPECIALLY in that Hispanics are a growing minority... and many consider themselves conservative... not Republican, but conservative.

Then why has Obama won all of the Rocky Mountain and Plains states like Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado, and Utah? He's capable of getting non-African Americans, contrary to what Hillary keeps saying.

Here's the CNN exit poll.
NC Democratic exit poll

Obama got 37% of the white vote and 91% of the black vote.

there were counties in Kentucky, several actually, where Obama got single Digit support......pretty bad given he's the presumed nominee. He has serious trouble in the Rust belt states.

if the Rev. Wright and related stuff had dropped before Iowa and Super Tuesday HIllary would've ran away with the Dem nomination. Or if they hadn't changed their rules the way they did.

perunapower Wrote:Then why has Obama won all of the Rocky Mountain and Plains states like Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado, and Utah? He's capable of getting non-African Americans, contrary to what Hillary keeps saying.

Here's the CNN exit poll.
NC Democratic exit poll

Obama got 37% of the white vote and 91% of the black vote.

That wasn't the argument...

To simplify... If you replace a liberal black man with a liberal white woman against a conservative white man... There are more women Republicans or Moderates who might vote for a moderate/liberal woman over a moderate/conservative man than there are black Democrats who would vote for a conservative white Republican over a liberal white Democrat.

I'm not making the argument myself.. I'm simply reporting it... and it makes some sense to me.

If there were a viable Hispanic female republican, and you wanted to play the minority block game, then that might be McCain's best choice.

I think the idea of Huckabee to hold the religious conservatives in the south, freeing McCain to concentrate on the states that will decide this election--Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio--is a good one, particularly considering that Obama does poorly against Clinton in those states.

If there were someone who could deliver one of the four key states, and help in the others, that would be a good choice, but unless it's Romney with Michigan I don't see it, and I'm not sure how much else Romney brings.

One real problem that I see for the republicans is that they haven't done a good job of developing young superstars--other than Bobby Jindal who's not quite ready yet. As long as they controlled congress, they should have developed three or four Obamas, but they just didn't. Of course, in recent times that was because their whole approach was based on finding 50.1% of the voters (or more properly, 270 of the electoral votes) for George W. Bush, instead of pursuing a strategy of developing the whole ticket, top to bottom.

perunapower Wrote:Obama got 37% of the white vote and 91% of the black vote.

thats 37% out of 100% of white voters, who made up around 58% of the Dem Primary per your exit poll. Obama got 92% or more of the 34% portion of the Dem primary.

so if the exit polls are right in NC from your link, Obama got:

Black vote = 92% of 34% of the vote = 31.28% of Dem Primary vote
White vote = 37% of 58% of vote = 21.46% which is around 52% total vote. Throw in how the latino vote went and the "other" and Republicans(some of which were Chaos voters)....this exit poll isn't matching up perfectly with the actual NC vote of 56% for obama...

the question is how many of the blue collar Dems will vote for him over McCain, especially in Penn, Ohio, Michigan and Florida.



actually, after all the Dems in recent years have claimed to be Moderate and big fans of John McCain, if they are honest I'm expecting them to all go and vote for the Moderate over the Far-left candidate. Plus the whole "Checks and Balances" argument they were making not so long ago, what better check against a Dem congress than a Rep. president???

perunapower Wrote:Then why has Obama won all of the Rocky Mountain and Plains states like Wyoming, Idaho, the Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado, and Utah? He's capable of getting non-African Americans, contrary to what Hillary keeps saying.

Here's the CNN exit poll.
NC Democratic exit poll

Obama got 37% of the white vote and 91% of the black vote.

Two reasons:

1. Many of those were caucus states, and the biggest mistake that the Clinton team made was that they didn't have nearly as good a caucus strategy as did the Obama team.
2. Most of those states aren't likely to go for any democrat in the fall. A lot of the working-class centrists are republicans, so that the remaining white democrats are disproportionately in the upper-income, upper-education group that Obama does well with. Hillary's point is that she's done better in the states that the democrats have to win.

That isn't me saying those things, it's what's been said over and over by pundits and analysts.

I left off one important part of their argument... sorry...

There are dead red, and dead blue states. It doesn't matter WHO you run in those states. The race is decided by less than 10 states. The same holds true in individual states... certain people will vote for a cardboard box if it has their party stamp on it. They KEY is to attract those who MIGHT vote for the opponent. The thought is that more McCain default voters might vote for Hillary than Obama in those states

very much in line with what you are saying 69/70

Hambone10 Wrote:Okay... don't shoot me for relaying what a VERY active Clinton backer told me was the concern of the Dem. party...

Using (as I recall) NC as the example... Obama won something like 99% of the African-American vote, and the state is 45% A-A... which means he only needed to win 6% of the NON A-A vote to win the state. He won something like 10%... swept the state 55-45... and that this was a common occurrence... that Obama won virtually 100% of the A-A vote, and only a minority of the non-A-A... HILLARY won the vast majority of the non-A-A, and given a choice between McCain and Hillary, Hillary would draw a similar percentage of the African-American vote to Obama... but given a choice between Obama and McCain, Obama wouldn't win as much of the NON A-A vote, and Obama wouldn't draw enough Republican A-A's (arguably because there aren't enough of them) to make up for it.

Again... don't shoot me... this was a synopsis of a comment from a VERY well placed Democrat in her campaign. It's why they honestly believe that even though Obama may be more popular with the party, that Hillary has a better chance of beating McCain.

So... While the race card MIGHT work in a party where a significant number of people are "of that race"... it is less important when that race is a minority nationally, and an even greater minority in the opposing party.

McCain would be well-advised to select a candidate that would draw from a LARGER minority within the "middle"... Women. Sure, he might p.o. the far right, but that would only mean they wouldn't vote... NOT that they'd vote for the left.

I don't like politics for this reason... because certain segments of the population can be intentionally ignored... but it is what we have made it... Republicans don't generally support A-A issues because A-A's generally wouldn't vote for them anyway. Note the use of the word GENERALLY. i realize this has changed somewhat... but I fear this election will swing the pendulum the other way... ESPECIALLY in that Hispanics are a growing minority... and many consider themselves conservative... not Republican, but conservative.

The only Republican who drew A-A crowds was Paul. If you recall, all the "big" candidates except Huckabee didn't even show at the A-A related debate on P-B-FREAKIN-S, with the very fair Tavvis Smiley as debate moderator.

Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:Two reasons:

1. Many of those were caucus states, and the biggest mistake that the Clinton team made was that they didn't have nearly as good a caucus strategy as did the Obama team.

I'll agree with that.

Quote:2. Most of those states aren't likely to go for any democrat in the fall. A lot of the working-class centrists are republicans, so that the remaining white democrats are disproportionately in the upper-income, upper-education group that Obama does well with. Hillary's point is that she's done better in the states that the democrats have to win.

Who's to say that Obama won't win Pennsylvania? or Michigan? or Florida?

Just because a state voted for Hillary in March or April doesn't necessarily it's going to vote McCain in November. I do agree that Obama has a problem with white working class voters, but I'm not confident that would translate into a win in November for McCain.

If McCain wants to pull some of the Hillary supporters from voting for Obama, go with Lieberman.

subflea Wrote:If McCain wants to pull some of the Hillary supporters from voting for Obama, go with Lieberman.

Lieberman is a piece of

Ninerfan1 Wrote:

Quote:SUSAN SARANDON, who appeared in three films last year and won kudos for her TV movie "Bernard and Doris," is still not a contented soul. She says if John McCain gets elected, she will move to Italy or Canada. She adds, "It's a critical time, but I have faith in the American people."

These celebrity dirt bags have 0 credibility. Wasn't it Alec Baldwin that promised he would move to Canada if Bush won? Liar Liar!

cb4029 Wrote:

subflea Wrote:If McCain wants to pull some of the Hillary supporters from voting for Obama, go with Lieberman.

Lieberman is a piece of

Why such a personal attack on someone? I don't like Obama at all, but I don't have to make it personal against him.

perunapower Wrote:Who's to say that Obama won't win Pennsylvania? or Michigan? or Florida?

Not saying that. Just repeating Hillary's argument that whoever the nominee (on either side, actually), he or she has to win some of those states to win, and Hillary beat Obama in the primaries there.

The polls that look at it on an Electoral College basis show Hillary vs. McCain running about even with Obama vs. McCain in overall popular vote, but Hillary runs 50-60 electoral votes better than Obama because she wins those states and Obama loses them.

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:

cb4029 Wrote:

subflea Wrote:If McCain wants to pull some of the Hillary supporters from voting for Obama, go with Lieberman.

Lieberman is a piece of

Why such a personal attack on someone? I don't like Obama at all, but I don't have to make it personal against him.