The reason that I have this funny feeling NY is in play is because Hillary and McCain won NY (Rudy had dropped out). The dichotomy of NY is that Republicans tend to do well up state and Democrats do extremely well around NYC. The rest swing. The key is NYC turnout. If turnout is high in NYC the democrats win, but not necessarily. If turnout is low in NYC, the Republicans win. If the Hillary voters swung Republican to any degree and the NYC turnout is low, McCain could win NY. I think upstate will have heavy turnout now and McCain will carry upstate by a wide margin. I think Lieberman may be dispatched to NY to stir up the Jewish vote. You also have to remember that NYC non-black ethnic communities are not real friendly to black candidates.

EastStang Wrote:The reason that I have this funny feeling NY is in play is because Hillary and McCain won NY (Rudy had dropped out). The dichotomy of NY is that Republicans tend to do well up state and Democrats do extremely well around NYC. The rest swing. The key is NYC turnout. If turnout is high in NYC the democrats win, but not necessarily. If turnout is low in NYC, the Republicans win. If the Hillary voters swung Republican to any degree and the NYC turnout is low, McCain could win NY. I think upstate will have heavy turnout now and McCain will carry upstate by a wide margin. I think Lieberman may be dispatched to NY to stir up the Jewish vote. You also have to remember that NYC non-black ethnic communities are not real friendly to black candidates.

For some reason I keep thinking this election is going to end up like a Chris Rock movie where Obama is up 5-10% monday before the election, and looses by 15-20%. I think the democratic party would tear itself apart trying to figure out what happened. I'm not so sure Hillary would have an easy time getting the nomination in 2012. The party bosses may say to hell with the Moveon.org crowd, and nominate a couple of southerners like Phil Bredesen, and Blanche Lincoln. The crazy thing is that Obama is by far a better candidate, and campaigner than Al Gore and John Kerry combined on their best day. Yet, I have a feeling that if Gore or Kerry were running in 2008 they would both be up by 15-20 points.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26625154/

NBC just reported Obama is ahead 46-45 (pretty much a dead heat). I'm guessing McCain's bump is over for now.

It's going to be tough and tight the next 60 days. I think the Republicans were helped by several things - one, the Palin pick which clearly trumps Biden on boldness alone. Interestingly, that pick was probably predicated by Biden's selection (McCain couldn't go with Romney at that point since the ticket would have been viewed as too rich). The Democrats probably gambled he'd go with Pawlenty which would have suited them just fine. Instead, McCain made the astute choice of Palin which I think clearly surprised the Democrats.

The other thing is that the Republican convention came right after the Democratic convention (and Palin's announcement the day after Obama's speech). If it was the normal 3-4 week period between the conventions, I doubt the bump would have been that extreme.

Daily poll watching is a completely worthless exercise. Wake me up in November.

niuhuskie84 Wrote:Daily poll watching is a completely worthless exercise. Wake me up in November.

Yep...Wake me to my new Master.