Tonight's polling could bring evidence that the Obama candidacy is in big trouble.

Quote:The convention floor was abuzz all yesterday with the news of the CBS poll showing a dead tie (42-42) in the presidential race. And the poll, conducted through Wednesday, couldn't reflect the impact of John McCain's speech, or the full impact of Sarah Palin's late Wednesday night. It reflected opinions only after the Democrats' convention, Barack Obama's incredible speech, the Palin selection and the early, Gustav-depressed GOP gathering.

That augers ill for the Democrats. Tonight's polling could bring evidence that the Obama candidacy is in big trouble.

First, the GOP convention managed to disprove the central premise of the Democratic assault on McCain: that he is a clone of President Bush. The Republicans wisely marginalized Bush to a non-prime-time videotaped speech, and sprinkled disappearing dust on Dick Cheney.

Dick Morris was the first to predict Obama would win the Democrat nomination. Is he on to something again?

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:Tonight's polling could bring evidence that the Obama candidacy is in big trouble.

Quote:The convention floor was abuzz all yesterday with the news of the CBS poll showing a dead tie (42-42) in the presidential race. And the poll, conducted through Wednesday, couldn't reflect the impact of John McCain's speech, or the full impact of Sarah Palin's late Wednesday night. It reflected opinions only after the Democrats' convention, Barack Obama's incredible speech, the Palin selection and the early, Gustav-depressed GOP gathering.

That augers ill for the Democrats. Tonight's polling could bring evidence that the Obama candidacy is in big trouble.

First, the GOP convention managed to disprove the central premise of the Democratic assault on McCain: that he is a clone of President Bush. The Republicans wisely marginalized Bush to a non-prime-time videotaped speech, and sprinkled disappearing dust on Dick Cheney.

Dick Morris was the first to predict Obama would win the Democrat nomination. Is he on to something again?

Obama is a phenominal closer. I thought Hillary was going to win the nomination easy, but 1 month before the first primary he turned up the heat, and it was over in 6 weeks. I expect him to start selling out stadiums a month before the election.

I don't think Obama ever had a chance. It's almost like the Dems nominated a loser on purpose.

Its way too early for a victory lap. If the Dems. are smart they will go after Palin and her stances on abortion and creationism. She is at the most extreme right on both....Against abortion(even in the event of rape and incest)...Against evolutionary theory(even has advocated the teaching of creationism in schools). These are not mainstream views and the Dems. would be wise to remind the voters of this.

I think we have the Republicans right where we want them - overconfident and cocky. And the debates haven't even happened yet.

The tv ratings surprised me - I did expect Palin to draw big numbers but I didn't expect McCain's audience to beat Obama's. But it was a relatively close final number.

I think the Republicans are silly if they think they're in good shape. One of their best bets is if blacks and young voters feel like voting would be hopeless. If it's a close race, you're going to see even greater turnout. And historically that hurts the Republicans more than the Democrats. Remember now the Democrats had almost twice as many people voting in the primaries as the Republicans but the Republicans kept saying those people are enthusiastic now but they won't be in November.

Fort Bend Owl Wrote:I think we have the Republicans right where we want them - overconfident and cocky. And the debates haven't even happened yet.

What? The media is wondering why Obama isn't running away with the race because the general feeling among the left is that Obama's victory is a certainty. It's the left that's over confident. The right is just determined not to lay down and die.

The Dems raised 10 million yesterday.
Yeah, they are in trouble.

smn1256 Wrote:

Fort Bend Owl Wrote:I think we have the Republicans right where we want them - overconfident and cocky. And the debates haven't even happened yet.

What? The media is wondering why Obama isn't running away with the race because the general feeling among the left is that Obama's victory is a certainty. It's the left that's over confident. The right is just determined not to lay down and die.

All this is soooo damn funny(and sad) to me...This bunch of control freaks doing battle with each other is like watching little league dads trying to decide who will be on the All-Star team.

BamaBlazer Wrote:I don't think Obama ever had a chance. It's almost like the Dems nominated a loser on purpose.

Cause your from Bethlehem. I'm from south Ga also. There is a change happening in this country. America can and will do better.

The race is close and a major gaffe in the debates could doom either party's candidate. I do think that McCain is in better shape than Obama. (1) McCain's nomination Palin got the Christian right motivated. They were going to sit out. Now in battleground states like Ohio, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, and Michigan, these folks will really come out in droves and they hang up on pollsters so they stay under the radar. (2) The Bradley effect. As we saw in the primary season, Obama's poll numbers are usually overstated. That means that he may actually be trailing by a significant margin. This narrows some in the general election. (3) White racists and Black racists will cancel each other out. The numbers are probably about the same for these two categories who will turn out to vote against Obama and for Obama not because of their views, but solely because of their race. (4) McCain will be able to spend more time in the purple states, because he can send Palin to nail down the red states. Biden buys you nothing. (5) You know that some trashy tabloid will get a picture of Sarah Palin nursing Trig. When that happens the backlash among women will be huge and for no fault of their own, it will be directed at the Democratic ticket. Obama needs to score points on every possession from here on out.

I agree with you on some of your points but not all.

Yes, it's a close race - no different from 2000 or 2004 really.

(1) You're probably right but why do they hang up on pollsters?
(2) I definitely agree here but I still can't get past the strange scenario where Obama/Clinton had nearly twice as many votes in the primaries as the McCain and the rest of the Republicans. Even if you write it off to Republicans not voting in the primaries but in November when it counts, can they double those numbers? I do think the Democrats will vote in the same numbers. Maybe McCain gets some Clinton voters, but I doubt very many.
(3) Probably right and this likely is one of the reasons Obama's numbers tend to be overstated.
(4) This is where you're wrong. Palin is the one who McCain needs in the purple states. Look at how badly McCain did in some of those states like Minnesota, Colorado and Iowa. And you're wrong on Biden too. He's Obama's best hope at this point (along with Clinton rallying her voters) in places like Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
(5) I disagree here too. First of all, I think the tabloids would want to post a picture of Palin NOT nursing Trig or dangling him over a hotel balcony like Michael Jackson or something like that. I don't see the Enquirer printing a photo of her breast-feeding the baby.

Really neither of them need to go to the red states that much. McCain could win

EastStang Wrote:The race is close and a major gaffe in the debates could doom either party's candidate. I do think that McCain is in better shape than Obama. (1) McCain's nomination Palin got the Christian right motivated. They were going to sit out. Now in battleground states like Ohio, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, and Michigan, these folks will really come out in droves and they hang up on pollsters so they stay under the radar. (2) The Bradley effect. As we saw in the primary season, Obama's poll numbers are usually overstated. That means that he may actually be trailing by a significant margin. This narrows some in the general election. (3) White racists and Black racists will cancel each other out. The numbers are probably about the same for these two categories who will turn out to vote against Obama and for Obama not because of their views, but solely because of their race. (4) McCain will be able to spend more time in the purple states, because he can send Palin to nail down the red states. Biden buys you nothing. (5) You know that some trashy tabloid will get a picture of Sarah Palin nursing Trig. When that happens the backlash among women will be huge and for no fault of their own, it will be directed at the Democratic ticket. Obama needs to score points on every possession from here on out.

FBO, you know if Palin draws just 15% of Hillary's supporters in Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania to vote for McCain, then McCain wins the electorial vote..

First of all, I doubt she gets 15 percent. Maybe 10 percent tops. But even if she does draw 15 percent, if Obama gets that other 85 percent, I'm not so sure.

Just looking at the Ohio and PA primaries earlier this year, Clinton got 1.2 million votes in Ohio and Obama got 979,000. McCain got just 636,000 and all other Republicans just 425,000. Obviously there will be more Republicans voting in November than in the primaries but right there we're talking about roughly 2 million to 1 million. With a 15 percent change, the Republicans still need 850,000 more votes.

In PA, it was Clinton 1.26 million and Obama 1.050 million with McCain 587,000 and all other Republicans 220,000. So that's an even greater margin.

I can't really look at Michigan because the Democratic primary didn't include Obama on the ticket. Virginia - I agree with you WMD. That's a close enough state where Clinton's supporters could swing the vote. But Obama continues to do a very good job of registering people to vote.

The one thing McCain has to be thrilled about is the crowds he received in Colorado today.

ETA - I'll recant this statement if someone can post numbers from 2004 that show a similar voting total in the 2004 primaries. If the Democrats had a million more votes in the primaries than the Republicans but still lost Ohio and almost lost PA, then it might be the same story in 2008 too.

Fort Bend Owl Wrote:First of all, I doubt she gets 15 percent. Maybe 10 percent tops. But even if she does draw 15 percent, if Obama gets that other 85 percent, I'm not so sure.

Just looking at the Ohio and PA primaries earlier this year, Clinton got 1.2 million votes in Ohio and Obama got 979,000. McCain got just 636,000 and all other Republicans just 425,000. Obviously there will be more Republicans voting in November than in the primaries but right there we're talking about roughly 2 million to 1 million. With a 15 percent change, the Republicans still need 850,000 more votes.

In PA, it was Clinton 1.26 million and Obama 1.050 million with McCain 587,000 and all other Republicans 220,000. So that's an even greater margin.

I can't really look at Michigan because the Democratic primary didn't include Obama on the ticket. Virginia - I agree with you WMD. That's a close enough state where Clinton's supporters could swing the vote. But Obama continues to do a very good job of registering people to vote.

The one thing McCain has to be thrilled about is the crowds he received in Colorado today.

ETA - I'll recant this statement if someone can post numbers from 2004 that show a similar voting total in the 2004 primaries. If the Democrats had a million more votes in the primaries than the Republicans but still lost Ohio and almost lost PA, then it might be the same story in 2008 too.

McCain is currently getting 12% of hillary's voters, that is around the 11% of democrats that voted for Bush in 2004.

First, the Enquirer comment was a joke, but you have to believe some of those rags with no ethics will absolutely stoop to getting a nip slip shot if they can because that will generate readers for them. Secondly, Biden does buy some credibility for an Obama Administration, but we don't want another Dick Cheney in the White House and I have heard those whispers around DC, and I really don't see him getting Obama votes that he wouldn't have already gotten. There are some southern red states where you do want to whip up your numbers because of the black vote. That's where Palin will come in handy to ensure that in states like Georgia, Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and the Carolinas that white evangelical voter turnout is at 2004 levels. They'll also use her in rural Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to be sure. They also might send her to Upstate NY to test its temperature and send McCain to NYC and campaign with Blumberg. I'm not entirely convinced that NY will end up in the Obama column.

EastStang Wrote:First, the Enquirer comment was a joke, but you have to believe some of those rags with no ethics will absolutely stoop to getting a nip slip shot if they can because that will generate readers for them. Secondly, Biden does buy some credibility for an Obama Administration, but we don't want another Dick Cheney in the White House and I have heard those whispers around DC, and I really don't see him getting Obama votes that he wouldn't have already gotten. There are some southern red states where you do want to whip up your numbers because of the black vote. That's where Palin will come in handy to ensure that in states like Georgia, Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and the Carolinas that white evangelical voter turnout is at 2004 levels. They'll also use her in rural Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to be sure. They also might send her to Upstate NY to test its temperature and send McCain to NYC and campaign with Blumberg. I'm not entirely convinced that NY will end up in the Obama column.

Is there a realistic scenario where Obama could lose NY and still win?

Of course, I'm not sure how avidly Bloomberg would campaign with McCain. He had a serious look at Obama earlier.

I do think Palin will target specifically the "bitter people who cling to guns and religion," the same voters that Obama couldn't take away from Hillary even after the nomination was pretty much a done deal. That could be enough to deliver Ohio, Michigan, maybe even Pennsylvania. I'll really be interested in watching state polls in a few key states over the next few weeks.

Another way that I think the McCain campaign should use her is as the front person on energy. That's a hot button issue where the republicans were scoring serious points before the convention, and that's one issue where Palin is the only candidate on either ticket who is NOT inexperienced.

Finally, I'd like to see her take the lead on the economy, particularly small businesses. Take Perot's 1992 economic talking points (most of which are as relevant now as then, primarily because nothing has been done to address them) and give that to her as a playbook. With her background, I think she'd be a compelling speaker on those issues.

Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:

EastStang Wrote:First, the Enquirer comment was a joke, but you have to believe some of those rags with no ethics will absolutely stoop to getting a nip slip shot if they can because that will generate readers for them. Secondly, Biden does buy some credibility for an Obama Administration, but we don't want another Dick Cheney in the White House and I have heard those whispers around DC, and I really don't see him getting Obama votes that he wouldn't have already gotten. There are some southern red states where you do want to whip up your numbers because of the black vote. That's where Palin will come in handy to ensure that in states like Georgia, Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and the Carolinas that white evangelical voter turnout is at 2004 levels. They'll also use her in rural Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to be sure. They also might send her to Upstate NY to test its temperature and send McCain to NYC and campaign with Blumberg. I'm not entirely convinced that NY will end up in the Obama column.

Is there a realistic scenario where Obama could lose NY and still win?

Of course, I'm not sure how avidly Bloomberg would campaign with McCain. He had a serious look at Obama earlier.

I do think Palin will target specifically the "bitter people who cling to guns and religion," the same voters that Obama couldn't take away from Hillary even after the nomination was pretty much a done deal. That could be enough to deliver Ohio, Michigan, maybe even Pennsylvania. I'll really be interested in watching state polls in a few key states over the next few weeks.

Another way that I think the McCain campaign should use her is as the front person on energy. That's a hot button issue where the republicans were scoring serious points before the convention, and that's one issue where Palin is the only candidate on either ticket who is NOT inexperienced.

Finally, I'd like to see her take the lead on the economy, particularly small businesses. Take Perot's 1992 economic talking points (most of which are as relevant now as then, primarily because nothing has been done to address them) and give that to her as a playbook. With her background, I think she'd be a compelling speaker on those issues.

No way Obama loses NY. The dems had 2-3x the voters in primaries as the republicans.

firmbizzle Wrote:No way Obama loses NY. The dems had 2-3x the voters in primaries as the republicans.

My thinking too. For things to swing to the point that Obama would lose NY, it would almost mean that the other 49 were going to McCain too (I say 49 instead of 50 because I still don't think DC would go McCain).

firmbizzle Wrote:McCain is currently getting 12% of hillary's voters, that is around the 11% of democrats that voted for Bush in 2004.

What is the source of these numbers? It would Imply that 90% of Hillary supporters voted for Bush in 2004. It doesn't add up.

THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:

firmbizzle Wrote:McCain is currently getting 12% of hillary's voters, that is around the 11% of democrats that voted for Bush in 2004.

What is the source of these numbers? It would Imply that 90% of Hillary supporters voted for Bush in 2004. It doesn't add up.

That usually occurs in every election. 10% of registered democrats that vote in a democratic primary, vote republican in the general.