T-Monay820
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No Punt Offense
So I was watching a "NFL Films Presents" epsiode where they talked about the math behind going for it on fourth down. Majority of the NFL coaches they talked to said that the professor who came up with the math (assigned points for going for it from different locations on the field) was crazy and clearly had never coached before. But then they talked to a HS coach who had a no punt policy and they go for it every down. He made some good points that the math is like 97% chance your opponent will score if you don't get a first down at your own five, and it only decreases to like 76% if you punt to your 35 (this math is based on NFL games), so its not worth it. Its kind of funny to watch his team go for it on 4 and 15 from their 5.
Any thoughts? Comes on again Tues afternoon at 2 PM on ESPN 2. Not sure if it comes on again after that. Episode is "Many Happy Returns" for those who want to try and find it online.
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11-25-2008 03:03 AM |
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Terpy
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RE: No Punt Offense
I read something on this once before it may have been in a Bill Simmons article or whatever. I dont know how the professor did the math but I would have to guess he is a bit off. If you plan to go for it on every 4th down your strategy on 1st, 2nd and 3rd will change as well.
There is a similar discussion to be made on the merits of going for two point conversions every time after a TD. I guess you may know this if you played pee-wee football as a tike but they get two points for a kick after a TD and only one point for a running/pass play for the point after, obviously because most of the kiddos arent very good at kicking.
When I read the sports guy's article he seemed to think that we would see a no punt offense in the NFL at somepoint as the research he cited claimed it would be worth it except for in extreme situations.
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11-25-2008 07:50 AM |
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jh
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RE: No Punt Offense
Terpy, it was probably the Tuesday Morning Quarterback. I know he's written about it before & really hates the preposterous punts, though not punting in general.
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11-27-2008 05:17 PM |
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Bourgeois_Rage
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RE: No Punt Offense
Sounds like Sabermetrics and how that has changed some traditional thinking in baseball.
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11-28-2008 10:44 AM |
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nachoman91
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RE: No Punt Offense
T-Monay820 Wrote:So I was watching a "NFL Films Presents" epsiode where they talked about the math behind going for it on fourth down. Majority of the NFL coaches they talked to said that the professor who came up with the math (assigned points for going for it from different locations on the field) was crazy and clearly had never coached before. But then they talked to a HS coach who had a no punt policy and they go for it every down. He made some good points that the math is like 97% chance your opponent will score if you don't get a first down at your own five, and it only decreases to like 76% if you punt to your 35 (this math is based on NFL games), so its not worth it. Its kind of funny to watch his team go for it on 4 and 15 from their 5.
Any thoughts? Comes on again Tues afternoon at 2 PM on ESPN 2. Not sure if it comes on again after that. Episode is "Many Happy Returns" for those who want to try and find it online.
I don't have the article but another mathematician took this study and modified it adding in rules to allow the coach to punt occassionally when on his own side of the field and the 4th down yardage was extremely long. Basically a set of rules like in blackjack where if it's 4th and 10 or more and you're inside the 25 you punt, or 4th and 20 or more and inside the 40 you punt, etc. All was based on the percentages of making the 4th down conversion versus percentage of the other team scoring from that yard line.
It was very cool stuff.
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12-04-2008 01:37 PM |
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Rebel
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RE: No Punt Offense
I thought about something similar a while back. Say you're winning a game by about 3-5 points. The other team has the ball and there are about 2-2.5 minutes left in the game and they are on your 30 yard line. Would it not be a better idea to just part like the Red Sea and let'em run it in for a TD? Then they're up 2-4 points and you have over two minutes to answer. What if they're in field goal range? Do you let'em spend all of their downs, wasting valuable clock time? I say no. Let'em run it in.
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12-04-2008 01:57 PM |
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Terpy
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RE: No Punt Offense
Rebel Wrote:I thought about something similar a while back. Say you're winning a game by about 3-5 points. The other team has the ball and there are about 2-2.5 minutes left in the game and they are on your 30 yard line. Would it not be a better idea to just part like the Red Sea and let'em run it in for a TD? Then they're up 2-4 points and you have over two minutes to answer. What if they're in field goal range? Do you let'em spend all of their downs, wasting valuable clock time? I say no. Let'em run it in.
This is kind of like the Eagles/cowboys game last season when Brian Westbrook took a seat just short of the endzone to secure the win for the Eagles. The only way the cowboys would have a chance to win the game was if the Eagles were to score and give them the ball back. There are certain situations where you would be better off letting the other team score but you have to think the opposing team usually realizes the same thing, that is the only way they can possibly lose the game is if they score and if you simply let them run through they will go down on purpose.
(This post was last modified: 12-04-2008 02:54 PM by Terpy.)
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12-04-2008 02:53 PM |
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