So I had a slow day and took the time to work out every combination of games left for the Atlantic and Coastal division races. The Coastal division was many times more difficult to work out the combinations.

For the Atlantic it is fairly simple (Clemson, Wake, FSU):

If Clemson beats Wake, Clemson is in.

If Wake beats Clemson then Clemson, Wake, and FSU all have a shot.

For FSU to win, Clemson will have to lose to Wake and NCSU while Wake beats Clemson and loses to Maryland.

The best NC State can do at this point is a tie and they lose every tie breaker so they are out of the championship game.

For the Coastal there are a lot of possibilities (VT, GT, UVA, Miami):

UVA and VT control their destiny, either winning out would win the Coastal.

If VT beats GT then the only teams that could win are VT and UVA. There are scenarios where VT could lose to UVA and still win the Coastal so it is NOT solely determined by their head-to-head matchup at the end.

If GT beats VT then there are a lot of possibilities. Only one scenario would have Miami winning though. That would be GT losing to Duke and UVA and VT having 4 losses. Miami ends up in ties in various other scenarios but their losses to VT and UVA make them lose out on most of them. GT's losses to Miami and UVA have them on the short end of most 5-3 (5-3 losing to Duke, 5-3 losing to VT eliminates them) ties as well.

Last night's game simplified things a lot. At this point:

ATLANTIC:
* If Clemson beats Wake Forest tomorrow, they are IN
* If Wake Forest wins, they still need to beat Maryland
OR Clemson must lose to NC State AND FSU must lose to Virginia

COASTAL:
* If Virginia loses to either Duke or FSU, VT is IN
* If Virginia wins the next 2 games then the game between VT & UVa will decide the Coastal.

Is that about right?

(11-11-2011 10:01 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Last night's game simplified things a lot. At this point:

ATLANTIC:
* If Clemson beats Wake Forest tomorrow, they are IN
* If Wake Forest wins, they still need to beat Maryland
OR Clemson must lose to NC State AND FSU must lose to Virginia

COASTAL:
* If Virginia loses to either Duke or FSU, VT is IN
* If Virginia wins the next 2 games then the game between VT & UVa will decide the Coastal.

Is that about right?

Clemson beats Wake, they are in.

If Clemson loses then it is behind Wake if they both finish 6-2. So Clemson would need Wake to lose to UMD to get back in it. If the leaders in whatever combinations you create are 5-3, Wake wins. The only way Clemson wins is for them to be 6-2 and Wake to be 5-3. The only way for FSU to win is if they are at 6-2 while Clemson and Wake are both at 5-3 (meaning Wake loses to UMD while Clemson loses to Wake and NC State).

For the Coastal: The easy statement is that if either VT or UVA win out, they are in.

If VT is 5-3 (meaning they lose to UNC and UVA) the only way they win is for UVA to lose to both Duke and FSU.

If UVA loses one game, then VT would have to lose to UNC for UVA to get back in the hunt.

So basically it's Clemson vs. a school from Virginia.

Guaranteed to have some level of "Orange" in Charlotte.







(see what I did there...?)

(11-11-2011 01:42 PM)ecuacc4ever Wrote:  So basically it's Clemson vs. a school from Virginia.

Guaranteed to have some level of "Orange" in Charlotte.

(see what I did there...?)

Prelude to the ORANGE BOWL.

(PS. What happens when/if Syracuse wins the ACC?)

Side track...

You know, when I was at ECU (back in the day) I always enjoyed those ECU/VT matchups, especially the one in '90 (even though VT won), the comeback win in '92, and the "Mike Vick" game in 2000.

Great electric atmospheres, all of 'em.

Ok, back on track now...

Oh snap -- Clemson is on the verge of pulling a serious, Tommy Bowden-level "Clemson" at home versus Wake Forest.

Oh snap!

Clemson is being Clemson...all the talent int he world and they waste it. They are trying their hardest to lose this game at this point.

OH SNAP!!!!

We have reached "Tommy Bowden Collapse" territory, folks.

(11-12-2011 02:27 PM)ecuacc4ever Wrote:  OH SNAP!!!!

We have reached "Tommy Bowden Collapse" territory, folks.

...almost.

So it boils down to Clemson vs Virginia Tech or Virginia. If VT beats UVA, they are in. UVA has to win at least one plus VT and if they do lose one hope that VT loses to UNC.

Man, that was exciting -- Clemson, for a second, showed signs of the "Tommy Bowden" days, recovered, Wake foot-choked, Tigers survived.

I'm all emotion-ed out today.

Whew.

Go Seminoles!!! ;-)