As Coach Huggins has said, the season is "a marathon, not a sprint". Before we all go too nuts about the Bearcats and bubble talk, they suck, blah, blah, blah... I think some of it simply has to do with the fact we just went through what was clearly the toughest stretch of our schedule, and some of the other C-USA Teams have interesting schedules coming up now. The only game's outcome that has no excuse to me was the home Louisville game that we clearly gave away and would have altered our season had we not done that. The bottom line though for me is that C-USA deserves at least 4 teams: Louisville, Charlotte, Depaul and Cincinnati. I discuss each of the C-USA teams in contention below, ordered by the CURRENT standings. The 4 teams I pick for the NCAA are ones that should have good enough overall and league records to meet the basic "smell test" by the NCAA selection committee, and they are also teams that I feel belong in the field of 64 when you watch them play too. Memphis right now may meet my second criteria, but they probably can't pass the overall "smell test" without winning every game left. UAB is on the outer fringes unless they pull off an upset at Cincy.
Louisville
C-USA Record: 9-2
Overall Record: 21-4
The only true "lock" at this moment IMO and probably the best team in C-USA overall. I still don't see them making a good NCAA tourney run to be honest though. I wonder how good they are actually playing right now though, just got whacked AT HOME by Memphis 85-68 and beat mighty South Florida yesterday 65-57 at home. They still play @ Marquette, @ Memphis, Charlotte and finish @ DePaul. It isn't a stretch to say that Louisville loses a couple more conference games, opening the door for somebody else at the top.
Charlotte
C-USA Record: 8-2
Overall Record: 17-4
For those of you who want to supplant the Bearcats with Charlotte as the next "lock" for the NCAA, give me a break people. Look at their season and tell me they deserve a bid more than the Bearcats. Now I do think that both teams will get bids FWIW. They had an even less impressive out of conference showing than the Bearcats (imagine that), got hammered in Cincy and won by a single point at home against us in their "Super Bowl" game where confetti rained down after Plavich set a Halton Arena record with 8 3-pointers. The Bearcats will NOT lose to this team in the C-USA tourney on a neutral floor. They had to go to overtime to win @ St. Louis last night, who was missing their leading scorer Reggie Bryant. They lost @ East Carolina too by the way. And they still have games home to Depaul, home to Memphis, @ Lousiville (a sure loss IMO) and @ South Florida. There is a very good chance they lose at least 2 more conference games out of that, and they always seem to add a "What was that?" type loss (could be South Florida?) too.
Depaul
C-USA Record: 8-2
Overall Record: 16-5
Again, at this moment in time with basketball left - Depaul has done NOTHING to distinguish themselves as an NCAA tourney team over the Bearcats. Their out of conference season sucked, they got whacked on our court as the Bearcats did on theirs. But the Bearcats had some excuse (admittedly overplayed by Huggins) with the quick turnaround. It really hurt Depaul too IMO because even the game announcers and Rick Majerus after the game were using the quick turnaround to detract from Depaul's performance. I personally believe they probably are an NCAA tournament worthy team, as is Cincy. But their remaining schedule includes games @ Charlotte, @ Marquette, @ UAB and finish at home with Louisville. They could very easily lose 2 or more conference games out of that.
Memphis
C-USA Record: 8-3
Overall Record: 15-10
You almost have to feel sorry for Memphis at times. It is hard to see them with a bid UNLESS they win the conference tourney at home in March (watch out for C-USA and the zebras angling for the future, so both Memphis and UAB could be tough outs in this one). Them winning the conference tourney could possibly make it interesting for somebody on selection Sunday; hopefully the Bearcats have played well enough to secure their bid by then. But their out of conference was a disaster for them, and they also have lost at home to TCU and on the road at Houston in league play. If someone asked me whether I thought they would be part of a field of the best 64 teams in the NCAA to play it out in March I personally would have to say YES. Darius Washington is playing great basketball and not as "flashy" as Dejuan Wagner was IMO, that is a compliment. In fact I would say that they are the toughest game left for the Bearcats too. Their remaining schedule includes @ Charlotte, home to Louisville, @ St. Louis (can be a root canal) and of course home to the Bearcats to finish. They could easily lose 2 or more games in that run, and hopefully we supply one of them :)
Cincinnati
C-USA Record: 6-4
Overall Record: 18-6
Let's face it; the out of conference schedule teased us into somewhat unrealistic expectations. Winning games is fun and builds confidence in the players and even fans, no matter who it is. Some of the teams ended up being worse than we had thought, so the schedule up front wasn't total garbage. I still say that the only loss that I can't reasonably explain for whatever reason is the choke at home to Louisville. We totally crumbled and gave that one away, which you don't do on your home court in conference play. Having said that, there is no excuse IMO to lose ANY of the four remaining home games if you are claiming to be NCAA worthy. UAB is going to need that game in a big way after losing yesterday and also being 6-4 in league play. But their chances could be hurt by one of the Taylor twins being out indefinitely with a broken foot suffered in the February 5th loss to Louisville. Marquette can be tough at times, but Diener can't do it by himself either. A Bearcat team should not be losing on the road against TCU either, no matter the circumstance. Notice the schedule shows a Thursday 9:00 game at home against Marquette and a "quick turnaround" game at TCU on Saturday at 3:00. I am not saying that TCU doesn't have some ball players, but you flat out don't lose to them (leave that to a Memphis or Charlotte type team). Depaul has a better team than TCU and had the revenge factor from an earlier blowout, so this game shouldn't be the same. The @ Memphis game to finish could be bigger than we currently realize in terms of the C-USA race (at least for bye seeding). It is not entirely out of the realm of possibility given the remaining schedule for other teams that the Bearcats could actually claim a share of the C-USA title (imagine that) IF they win out. Memphis will be tough, but they don't seem to have the Bearcats' number in certain games like some teams. I would certainly give the Bearcats a chance in this one.
UAB
C-USA Record: 6-4
Overall Record: 16-7
Possibly another outside pick by the true Bearcat downers to supplant the Bearcats in the NCAA tourney. Again, give me a break. They did NOTHING out of conference and now have losses @ Tulane and @ TCU in league play. Their biggest "break" in a bad way may have come with one of the Taylor twins breaking an ankle against Louisville, which is going to damage a run most likely. The game against the Bearcats is HUGE now for both teams, as a win by UAB at least gets them much stronger into a discussion. A loss by the Bearcats may not be fatal for NCAA chances, but it sure wouldn't help either to fall behind them and lose the only matchup with them. They still play @ Cincy, @ St. Louis, home to Depaul and @ Houston (much improved this year). Things don't look very good for them if they don't win out or get the C-USA tourney.
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"A Marathon, Not A Sprint" Perspective
