Quote:1. Memphis Tigers (C-USA)
No shocker at No. 1, as perennial non-BCS power Memphis tops the list in its final season before jumping to the Big East. The Tigers wave goodbye to C-USA Player of the Year Will Barton, who put up a monstrous statistical season (116 offensive rating at a 26 percent usage rate) and probably deserved more All-America buzz than he actually received. The Tigers' 2012 public perception undercut their overall performance: While they received an 8-seed in the NCAA tournament and took a second-round loss, Memphis finished 10th in the final BPI.


Incoming freshman forward Shaq Goodwin was a major contributor for the USA U-18 team this summer, shooting 80 percent from the floor in four games, but the biggest reason for increased expectations is the return of sophomore Adonis Thomas. Thomas never really got rolling before his injury last season, and both his playing time and effectiveness were affected. But he was one of the more impressive performers at the Kevin Durant Skills Academy in late June, and a first-team All-Conference selection should by no means come as a surprise.

Tarik Black and Chris Crawford have already demonstrated their respective abilities to be above-average college players, and Thomas, Goodwin and point guard Joe Jackson would merely be fulfilling expectations by doing the same. This could be Josh Pastner's first true juggernaut.

Quote:6. San Diego State Aztecs (Mountain West)
On the other side of the St. Louis/Memphis advanced ratings coin is San Diego State, which grabbed a 6-seed but was ranked No. 40 by BPI (and an even more pessimistic No. 69 by KenPom.com).

Most everyone is back for the Aztecs. How you feel about their chances depends on how much you value some of their stranger 2012 results: A loss at lowly Air Force and unnervingly close wins against USC, Bryant, UC Santa Barbara, Chicago State, Boise State, Wyoming and TCU.