I fully expect to get steamrolled by VT this weekend. That will put us at 0-3. I assume (perhaps mistakenly) that we can beat Gardner Webb. Then we have an extra week to get ready for the Cuse. if we win there we are 2-3 and still have a chance to salvage (6-6) the season. if we lose there we are 1-4 and I can't see us finishing 5-2.

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(09-10-2012 10:38 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  I fully expect to get steamrolled by VT this weekend. That will put us at 0-3. I assume (perhaps mistakenly) that we can beat Gardner Webb. Then we have an extra week to get ready for the Cuse. if we win there we are 2-3 and still have a chance to salvage (6-6) the season. if we lose there we are 1-4 and I can't see us finishing 5-2.

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I hate to say this to a Pitt fan because they are now my favorite fans tto root for after SU, but be prepared to be 1-4. This team has some pent up emotions from losing to Pitt the last 8 years. Pitt is the only BE team that SU hasnt beaten since Marrone took over, besides Uconn.

Cuse also has a bye before Pitt...Cuse is very tough for night games...I expect Cuse to be 2-2 and having over 45k fans that night. If the Dome gets 43k or more fans it hits critical mass and becomes deafening. I see Cuse beating Pitt before a packed, loud crowd.

In true ACC fashion, Pitt will probably win convincingly.

IMO, Syracuse will be a slight favorite at home vs. Pitt.

The REAL turning point will be Louisville @ Heinz Field.
Win that and you can still finish 6-6

I fully expect Pitt to go 1-11 or 2-10 this year.

I'd be shocked if Pitt goes 1-11 or 2-10.

1-11 means they lose to either Gardiner-Webb or Buffalo and go 0-7 in Big East.
2-10 means they either lose to Gardiner-Webb or Buffalo and then 6/7 Big East schools, or just go 0-7 in Big East.

I think Pitt's too good for either one of those.

(09-11-2012 07:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd be shocked if Pitt goes 1-11 or 2-10.

1-11 means they lose to either Gardiner-Webb or Buffalo and go 0-7 in Big East.
2-10 means they either lose to Gardiner-Webb or Buffalo and then 6/7 Big East schools, or just go 0-7 in Big East.

I think Pitt's too good for either one of those.

If you can lose at home to YSU, then you can lose to all BE teams.

(09-11-2012 07:31 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  I fully expect Pitt to go 1-11 or 2-10 this year.

As I see it,
... 7-5 is still more likely than 1-11.
... 6-6 is more likely than 2-10

Pitt may lose to both Va Tech AND Syracuse and still finish 6-6 or 7-5.

Winnable games remaining:

I'd be surprised if Pitt would be favored over Louisville. I know it's at Pitt, but if Pitt is like 1-4 at that point, they're not going to be favored over a team that likely would be top 25 at that point.

(09-11-2012 08:43 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd be surprised if Pitt would be favored over Louisville. I know it's at Pitt, but if Pitt is like 1-4 at that point, they're not going to be favored over a team that likely would be top 25 at that point.

I'm sorry, I should've clarified - I didn't mean favored by Vegas (clearly that will not be the case unless Louisville just falls apart the next few weeks). I meant favored by power rating computers...

(09-11-2012 08:45 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(09-11-2012 08:43 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd be surprised if Pitt would be favored over Louisville. I know it's at Pitt, but if Pitt is like 1-4 at that point, they're not going to be favored over a team that likely would be top 25 at that point.

I'm sorry, I should've clarified - I didn't mean favored by Vegas (clearly that will not be the case unless Louisville just falls apart the next few weeks). I meant favored by power rating computers...

Just looking at Sagarin right now, Louisville is the top BE team and Pitt is the worst BE team. If Pitt is 1-4 by then, they won't be much stronger than where they are right now. Louisville if they're undefeated by then will be 5-0 and have wins over UNC and Southern Miss(and Kentucky). I just don't see Pitt getting close enough to where the home field would make the difference. Pitt would have losses vs FCS team, Cincy, VT, and Syracuse. Louisville would be in the top 20 in the computers, Pitt would be in the 80ish range.

(09-11-2012 08:37 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  

(09-11-2012 07:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd be shocked if Pitt goes 1-11 or 2-10.

1-11 means they lose to either Gardiner-Webb or Buffalo and go 0-7 in Big East.
2-10 means they either lose to Gardiner-Webb or Buffalo and then 6/7 Big East schools, or just go 0-7 in Big East.

I think Pitt's too good for either one of those.

If you can lose at home to YSU, then you can lose to all BE teams.

Losing your opening game to a very good FCS opponent when you are installing new offensive and defensive schemes for the second time in two years isn't a shock. Not improving enough to win a couple of games in the BE would be.

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Sorry, Syracuse will win and be on it's way to a 9-3, Big East Championship, season.

(09-10-2012 10:45 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(09-10-2012 10:38 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  I fully expect to get steamrolled by VT this weekend. That will put us at 0-3. I assume (perhaps mistakenly) that we can beat Gardner Webb. Then we have an extra week to get ready for the Cuse. if we win there we are 2-3 and still have a chance to salvage (6-6) the season. if we lose there we are 1-4 and I can't see us finishing 5-2.

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I hate to say this to a Pitt fan because they are now my favorite fans tto root for after SU, but be prepared to be 1-4. This team has some pent up emotions from losing to Pitt the last 8 years. Pitt is the only BE team that SU hasnt beaten since Marrone took over, besides Uconn.

Like most LONG winning streaks this may come to an end but regardless, I can see us winning 5 or 6 games anyway. In a way, if Syracuse can't win this year, you're really bad. Given the spot on the schedule, etc.

It's certainly a good spot although Pitt also has two weeks off so there's no advantage there. I'll get a little more sense of Syracuse when you head to Minnesota. They're actually winning games and Jerry Kill is a good coach. I figured that to be like a MAC opponent but maybe not now.

I'd also remind some that 2 seasons ago Pitt got off to a similarly horrible start, actually headed to Syracuse as an underdog, and won by 30ish. As amazing as it sounds, Tino has won the statistical tale of the tape if you look at head to head with Nassib. They also currently have a similar QPE. It's hard to accept in the face of Tino bashing but the numbers are the numbers.

I more worried about VPI right now and turning our fundamental performance around, as I know our players are more talented than they've looked. Too much transition friction up to this point.

I think Pitt beats UBuffalo, Gardner-Webb, Temple, and maybe one more team (not USF I want them to be ranked when we kill them on Senior Day at the U!!).

(09-11-2012 05:20 PM)rc79 Wrote:  

(09-10-2012 10:45 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(09-10-2012 10:38 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  I fully expect to get steamrolled by VT this weekend. That will put us at 0-3. I assume (perhaps mistakenly) that we can beat Gardner Webb. Then we have an extra week to get ready for the Cuse. if we win there we are 2-3 and still have a chance to salvage (6-6) the season. if we lose there we are 1-4 and I can't see us finishing 5-2.

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I hate to say this to a Pitt fan because they are now my favorite fans tto root for after SU, but be prepared to be 1-4. This team has some pent up emotions from losing to Pitt the last 8 years. Pitt is the only BE team that SU hasnt beaten since Marrone took over, besides Uconn.

Like most LONG winning streaks this may come to an end but regardless, I can see us winning 5 or 6 games anyway. In a way, if Syracuse can't win this year, you're really bad. Given the spot on the schedule, etc.

It's certainly a good spot although Pitt also has two weeks off so there's no advantage there. I'll get a little more sense of Syracuse when you head to Minnesota. They're actually winning games and Jerry Kill is a good coach. I figured that to be like a MAC opponent but maybe not now.

I'd also remind some that 2 seasons ago Pitt got off to a similarly horrible start, actually headed to Syracuse as an underdog, and won by 30ish. As amazing as it sounds, Tino has won the statistical tale of the tape if you look at head to head with Nassib. They also currently have a similar QPE. It's hard to accept in the face of Tino bashing but the numbers are the numbers.

I more worried about VPI right now and turning our fundamental performance around, as I know our players are more talented than they've looked. Too much transition friction up to this point.

That is why we need to be patient with Paul Chryst... Jerry Kill in year two has the gophers playing much better and now poeple are remembering that he is a good coach. A year ago, poeple were calling for his head in year one.

It now looks like this could be a pivotal game for the Cuse. Pitt seems to have righted the ship and is headed in the right direction. The Cuse is struggling to get there. If Pitt wins, Syracuse is sitting at 1-4 and probably out of bowl consideration. If Cuse wins Pitt's momentum comes to a screeching halt and both teams are sitting at 2-3. This could be a death knell for Pitt's season. With Louisville on tap after, Pitt would be looking at a 2-4 start. After watching the progress of the last two weeks, I think Pitt wins. Of course I thought we'd beat YSU too.

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pivotal game coming off bye week when we should have are all conference OT back so we can put our current rt on the bench where he belongs

syracuse has rutgers and uconn following the pitt game as long as we dont play stupid like we did vs minnesota we can play with each of them