(12-14-2012 12:20 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Neil, if you're right and I'm wrong then I'll be happy because that would mean more money for the ACC.

Well, if you are wrong you could always follow the example that the "Orange Bowl is going to make the same money as the Sugar" crowd did and say you were really right, but some kind of circumstance forced it to change.

(12-14-2012 12:23 PM)catdaddy_2402 Wrote:  

(12-14-2012 12:20 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Neil, if you're right and I'm wrong then I'll be happy because that would mean more money for the ACC.

Well, if you are wrong you could always follow the example that the "Orange Bowl is going to make the same money as the Sugar" crowd did and say you were really right, but some kind of circumstance forced it to change.

I wasn't one of those, but I did think the worse it would get is $60 million with the ACC receiving $40 million and the opponent $20 million.

Cheers,
Neil

(12-14-2012 12:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-14-2012 11:52 AM)omniorange Wrote:  

(12-14-2012 11:43 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-14-2012 11:29 AM)omniorange Wrote:  

(12-14-2012 10:08 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Um, you may want to re-read the article above. It does NOT state that the 4 power conference will get $91 million annually... what id DOES state is:


Since the ACC will NOT average $91M, it's either wrong or means something different from what you are thinking.

I went into this in detail on my blog - see Revenue Comparison - power 5.

Cliff Notes version:
Each of the 5 power conferences gets:
* $51.75 M/yr right off the top
* $40M/yr or $27.5M/yr for 2/3 years from Contract Bowls
* for 1/3 years the amount is yet uknown, but I'd estimate no more than $12.5M/yr from Access Bowls during semi-final years, with the exception of the SEC & B1G; during the 12 years, the SEC/B1G will get $40M for 8 of those years, $27.5 for 3 years, and no more than $12.5M for 1 year

The reason I say "no more than $12.5M/yr for Access Bowls" is simply because if you take all of the playoff money that's unaccounted for - namely $125M/yr - and divide that by the number of teams - playoff games (4), access bowls (4) or the championship (2), for a total of 10 - you get $12.5M, with NOTHING left for overhead. I'll leave it up to you to decide (1) how much overhead, and (2) whether championship game teams will get a double share (e.g. $12.5M for both the semi and the championship) or if not, how much extra.

I read your blog and I don't think it is supported by what has been reported.

And yes, the ACC will basically average $90 million annually over the 12-year period based upon what I am talking about.

They will get the $51 million the other 4 power conferences get - $612 million

Then they will 6 years of $27.5 million when BiG, SEC are OB opponents - another $165 million.

Then the 4 years the OB is a semi-final game they will get $55 million - another $220 million.

And assuming ND qualifies as the OB opponent twice the ACC will likely get $40 million per year - another $80 million there.

The total for the 12 year period is 1.077 trillion which amounts to $89.75 million annually.

The Pac 12 and Big 12 will get 1.092 trillion which amounts to $91 million annually for each conference.

The BiG and the SEC will get the same, except for when they get to be the OB opponent three times each in the 8 years the OB isn't a semi-final game, then in those years only the conference receives $118 million instead of $91 million.

Cheers,
Neil

I think counting on ND to be in the OB 2x in the 8 chances could be a bit foolish. I mean, if they have a year like this, they'd be in the playoff(even with 1 loss). If they have more than 2 losses, won't be ahead of SEC team for sure, and most years Big Ten team. It's a very slim window that ND has to get into the Orange. It's no lock that ND is OB bound 2x in the 8 chances. At all.

While I can't deny that as a possibility, I would think statistically it will be far more likely ND is 10-2 more often than 12-0 or even 11-1. And a 10-2 ND is likely to be higher rated than the third/fourth place SEC or second/third place BiG team which is probably why both wanted a minimum clause to be part of the OB contract.

Cheers,
Neil

I said more than 2 losses, but even 2 losses, ND wouldn't be a lock... This year, 10-2 ND would not be ahead of 10-2 LSU or Texas A&M....

A LOT with ND will be timing quite frankly.

You have no way of knowing that. Let's say ND beats Alabama for the NC this year. In 2014 still think a 10-2 ND would definitely be behind a 10-2 LSU or A&M?

Cheers,
Neil

(12-14-2012 12:20 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Neil, if you're right and I'm wrong then I'll be happy because that would mean more money for the ACC.

Well, I'm hoping I'm right too. But it's deduction based upon info that is being reported. Who knows if the reported info is even correct?

Cheers,
Neil

(12-14-2012 12:31 PM)omniorange Wrote:  

(12-14-2012 12:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-14-2012 11:52 AM)omniorange Wrote:  

(12-14-2012 11:43 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-14-2012 11:29 AM)omniorange Wrote:  I read your blog and I don't think it is supported by what has been reported.

And yes, the ACC will basically average $90 million annually over the 12-year period based upon what I am talking about.

They will get the $51 million the other 4 power conferences get - $612 million

Then they will 6 years of $27.5 million when BiG, SEC are OB opponents - another $165 million.

Then the 4 years the OB is a semi-final game they will get $55 million - another $220 million.

And assuming ND qualifies as the OB opponent twice the ACC will likely get $40 million per year - another $80 million there.

The total for the 12 year period is 1.077 trillion which amounts to $89.75 million annually.

The Pac 12 and Big 12 will get 1.092 trillion which amounts to $91 million annually for each conference.

The BiG and the SEC will get the same, except for when they get to be the OB opponent three times each in the 8 years the OB isn't a semi-final game, then in those years only the conference receives $118 million instead of $91 million.

Cheers,
Neil

I think counting on ND to be in the OB 2x in the 8 chances could be a bit foolish. I mean, if they have a year like this, they'd be in the playoff(even with 1 loss). If they have more than 2 losses, won't be ahead of SEC team for sure, and most years Big Ten team. It's a very slim window that ND has to get into the Orange. It's no lock that ND is OB bound 2x in the 8 chances. At all.

While I can't deny that as a possibility, I would think statistically it will be far more likely ND is 10-2 more often than 12-0 or even 11-1. And a 10-2 ND is likely to be higher rated than the third/fourth place SEC or second/third place BiG team which is probably why both wanted a minimum clause to be part of the OB contract.

Cheers,
Neil

I said more than 2 losses, but even 2 losses, ND wouldn't be a lock... This year, 10-2 ND would not be ahead of 10-2 LSU or Texas A&M....

A LOT with ND will be timing quite frankly.

You have no way of knowing that. Let's say ND beats Alabama for the NC this year. In 2014 still think a 10-2 ND would definitely be behind a 10-2 LSU or A&M?

Cheers,
Neil

We'll see what happens in the title game, as you're right things can change, but at least now, LSU(or maybe especially A&M coming off the win vs Alabama) would be ahead of ND.