(01-02-2013 07:26 AM)Yoda Wrote: I don't quite follow. What is the connection between athletic budgets and UH/SMU decisions to stay or go?
Athletics budgets are a marker of the resources a school has access to. That's why I used either revenues or expenses, whichever was higher. I marked the three swing schools in blue. The NBE schools have more of an ability to spend money to make money in their markets. By the same token, New Mexico has more ability to build itself up in Albuquerque than Nevada-REno does in Reno.
Quote:I would think that the football budget would be more meaningful to this discussion and,
Valid point.
Quote:more than that, the extent of the football budget that springs from conference affiliation.
Not so much--the contrast is in the non-conference money.
Quote:And in any event, this is a historical look backwards whereas decisions about conference affiliation tend to be based upon comparative projections into the future.
PRojections range from good guesses to complete, wild guesses.
Population and economic growth projections favor Tampa, Orlando and Philadelphia over Fresno and San Jose, not to mention Laramie, Logan and Reno. Aresco's and the NBE's rosy scenario is a lot rosier than the MWC's rosy scenario. And the NBE gloom-and-doom scenario is where they are now, about even with the MWC schools.
Quote:The figures for existing nBE schools, for example, include income from a now defunct BCS autobid, as well as revenues from television contracts that are not sustainable.
BCS autobid was $18M plus the BEFB contract $13.3M, divided by 8 schools is about $3.9M in Big East football earnings per school. Knock $4M off of UConn, Cincy and USF and they're still in the top half of the list.
USF, UConn and Cincy may take a haircut on their TV money (the roof has caved in, it could be less than the $3.7M they get now) but they're going to get something. Add what you expect the C-7 to get to what C-USA got in 2011 and that's your floor.
Quote:I'm not being critical; there is only so much information available to we the lowly masses. I'm just not sure that what is available is really useful to anticipating what decisions will be.
I don't mind people being critical, most of the point of posting is to have other people take a look and say "What about that?" Sometimes, like with using the football budget instead of the overall budget, it's something I haven't thought of.
Actually, I think the overall budget is the right number to use. Every school has a chunk of their athletic budget which isn't tagged for any sport. I have to figure that's stuff like weight rooms and athletic and practice facilities that are shared across the programs. So if Townsville State's common practice facility is a palace, while U of Townsville's is a dump, that helps TSU over UT in football, even if it doesn't show in the football budget.