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Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
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USAFMEDIC Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
Three points here regarding comments made in this post:

1) Texas hasn't built the Big XII (X).

2) Key phrase is " we are not LOOKING. Heard that before...

3) We always new where Commish Beebe's loyalties were ...Austin.
04-17-2013 01:10 PM
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HP-TBDPITL Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
(04-17-2013 01:04 PM)eagleriffic Wrote:  The big12 will expand when their tv contract is up for renewal. So we have a few years to go.

One of two scenerios will happen - either the big 12 raids the acc or texas, tx tech, ou & ok state pack their bags & head to the pac12. In which case the leftover big 12 teams raid the aac, mtn west & possibly cusa for replacements.

Agreed...the Big 12 hasn't had anyone that moves the needle in terms of TV.

And yes, I'm including Louisville.

The B12 added two schools when it needed to to get its TV payout...as soon as adding schools gets them more money they will add them, but not before. The ACC had to add someone because it lost them...the B1G added two to make more money....as did the SEC and PAC-12 before them. At the top conference expansion is about making more money...as you trickle down its more about survival or keeping even.
04-17-2013 01:55 PM
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Post: #23
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
(04-17-2013 01:55 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  The B12 added two schools when it needed to to get its TV payout...as soon as adding schools gets them more money they will add them, but not before. The ACC had to add someone because it lost them...the B1G added two to make more money....as did the SEC and PAC-12 before them. At the top conference expansion is about making more money...as you trickle down its more about survival or keeping even.
The schools that the Big12 could get now, they could get later. And the most lucrative additions only become available to the Big12 in the event that the ACC is seriously destabilized. That makes them a natural second mover. As a natural second mover, they have no downside at this point in time for saying that they are not looking to expand.
04-17-2013 02:06 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Bowlby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
(04-17-2013 10:29 AM)JRsec Wrote:  I promise you if anything happens to the ACC we are moving to 3 conferences. The present Big 12 doesn't have the markets to compete with an expanding Big 10 and SEC and the revenue gap would only lock the Big 12 into the same disadvantage that has plagued the ACC. Do you really think the Horns and Sooners will allow that to happen to their programs? I don't.

I think that's a likely scenario but more likely to happen in 20 years than in 2. The logical big consolidation is still some combination of the Big 12 powers with the Pac-12 to create clout on par with much larger versions of the Big Ten and SEC. But that consolidation is unnecessary until we have those larger versions of the Big Ten and SEC.
04-17-2013 03:08 PM
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jrj84105 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Bowlby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
(04-17-2013 03:08 PM)Wedge Wrote:  I think that's a likely scenario but more likely to happen in 20 years than in 2. The logical big consolidation is still some combination of the Big 12 powers with the Pac-12 to create clout on par with much larger versions of the Big Ten and SEC. But that consolidation is unnecessary until we have those larger versions of the Big Ten and SEC.

Is this the new consensus on realignment? It really seems like the only stable way to divide and lump is with the 3x20 power conferences rather than the 4x16 that was on the horizon previously. It essentially gets us back to a 6x10 with some of the fat trimmed and a few up and comers brought into the fold.
04-17-2013 06:08 PM
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Post: #26
RE: Bowlby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
(04-17-2013 12:27 PM)S11 Wrote:  
(04-17-2013 09:45 AM)JMUDuke25 Wrote:  
(04-17-2013 08:58 AM)S11 Wrote:  
(04-17-2013 01:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Texas will not be for expansion until they know whether or not they are staying. 10 is easier to dissolve than 12. If they do decide to stay then they will only want a pair of teams with cache.

Texas is for worthwhile expansion. We won't just add anyone.

If UT was looking around they wouldn't lock themselves in for a decade with the GOR. To imply otherwise is tin-foil hat-ish.

The GOR are about as useful as an exit fee. Neither are likely to fully hold up in court and both are negotiable as hell.

1- GOR is substantially stronger. It;s not even a contest.

2- Even if it is capable of being broken without too much trouble (something I disagree with) it still doesn't indicate UT wanting to look around.

Even if you don't accept #1, common sense tells you that if UT was looking around they wouldn't have signed a GOR. They wouldn't have created that difficulty in moving if they wanted to explore things in this contract cycle. Its simple. They don't want to and won't. Any other assumption is ridiculous. And on top of that, its doubtful they would make more money in any other conference during this contract cycle because of the LHN.
04-17-2013 06:18 PM
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cuseroc Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
(04-17-2013 01:55 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  
(04-17-2013 01:04 PM)eagleriffic Wrote:  The big12 will expand when their tv contract is up for renewal. So we have a few years to go.

One of two scenerios will happen - either the big 12 raids the acc or texas, tx tech, ou & ok state pack their bags & head to the pac12. In which case the leftover big 12 teams raid the aac, mtn west & possibly cusa for replacements.

Agreed...the Big 12 hasn't had anyone that moves the needle in terms of TV.

And yes, I'm including Louisville.

The B12 added two schools when it needed to to get its TV payout...as soon as adding schools gets them more money they will add them, but not before. The ACC had to add someone because it lost them...the B1G added two to make more money....as did the SEC and PAC-12 before them. At the top conference expansion is about making more money...as you trickle down its more about survival or keeping even.

Couldnt you say that when the ACC added Pitt and SU that they made that move to make money, similar to the Big 10 and SEC.. You could also say that the Big 12 added 2 schools to replace some schools (4) that it lost. They had to add 2 in an emergency situation to keep their tv contract from being reduced, so that they could "keep even.".
04-17-2013 06:44 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
IMO the 10 team model is the optimum solution for conference play. You play every school in every sport every year, which keeps all conference members tied to one another by mutual interest...

I don't think larger conferences make a conference stronger. It just makes them bigger, and gives them more inventory. That doesn't mean it's better. It's just bigger...
04-17-2013 08:31 PM
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eagleriffic Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
(04-17-2013 08:31 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  IMO the 10 team model is the optimum solution for conference play. You play every school in every sport every year, which keeps all conference members tied to one another by mutual interest...

I don't think larger conferences make a conference stronger. It just makes them bigger, and gives them more inventory. That doesn't mean it's better. It's just bigger...

10 is the best option & does not make them stronger it just grows the brand & fills timeslots on their networks.

I think we will see four 16 team conferences. I just dont see three 20 team leagues. The question is will the big12 or acc survive?
04-18-2013 09:07 AM
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jaredf29 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
Bowlsby is either a liar or nieve.
04-18-2013 09:09 AM
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
One thing to always look at this is the reactions of others. The PAC-10 didn't become the PAC-16, but the push for it gave Nebraska cover to go to the Big Ten with massive fan approve. It also led to the Texas A&M talks which led to them going to the SEC and almost undid the whole Big 12.

The ACC felt vunerable with expansion and added Pitt and Syracuse probably as part of protection move. Notre Dame was added when they probably wouldn't have been in the past under similar circumstances and Louiville was choosen over UConn despite all past evidence suggesting they'd go with UConn as a flagship and more importantly for academics.

Those moves sured up the ACC, but they left the Big Ten feeling vunerable (long term). The northeast went from divided between three power conferences to divided between 2 with the Big Ten's only team being a weakened Penn State. Long term, there was risk of losing Penn State if something wasn't done. The presidents in close to their words said expansion looked less risky than standing still. So they took Maryland and Rutgers, which sured up their presence in part of the northeast and wouldn't let the ACC dominate.

So that's a big part of what to look at. Not, what can conferences gain, but if/how they are feeling at risk themselves (short or long term).

I think for now things are beginning to steady out though. The Big Ten's not worried about the ACC anymore, the SEC has its presence in Texas, Texas is happy with the Big 12, the ACC doesn't worry its about to lose a lot, and the PAC-12 has few available options.
04-18-2013 09:24 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
(04-18-2013 09:09 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  Bowlsby is either a liar or nieve.

Not to play the spelling police, but as written this sentence is literally "Bowlsby is either a liar or a fist", which ironically I think could be the case, as I think he is underestimated by realignment fans.

FWIW, I think you meant "naive".
04-18-2013 11:03 AM
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jaredf29 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Bowlsby-Big 12 Still Not Looking To Expand.
(04-18-2013 11:03 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(04-18-2013 09:09 AM)jaredf29 Wrote:  Bowlsby is either a liar or nieve.

Not to play the spelling police, but as written this sentence is literally "Bowlsby is either a liar or a fist", which ironically I think could be the case, as I think he is underestimated by realignment fans.

FWIW, I think you meant "naive".

I did but I was on my Iphone, so it's a little tough to see.
04-18-2013 02:44 PM
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