(04-22-2013 08:08 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  Exactly.

Cinderella needs the Power 5 more than the Power 5 needs Cinderella.

The NCAA lives and dies by it bball tournament revenue that would disappear if the P5 broke off from it. They know that which is why they would be very willing to let the P5 have their own subdivision for football...which will NOT include the AAC or MWC any other G5 league.

That way there can be an 8 team playoff with 5 AQ bids and 3 wild card slots

David is just another shepherd boy unless he gets the chance to face and slay Goliath.

The thing is if you had a division of just FBS schools or FBS plus a few high budget FCS and non-football, the general public still thinks they are getting Cinderella when a MWC or CUSA or MAC or Sun Belt team goes and wins some games in the tournament.

The power 5 can't even agree on the deregulation proposals, the player stipend, aor multi-year scholarships, as evidenced by who put in the various override requests. The FBS schools already control all of the NCAA committees and have successfully made the NCAA the scapegoat for all of the ills of college sports, and the power 5 already greatly control the majority of the revenue for college sports. Why sacrifice that situation? To gain an extra 10%? But at what risk?

IMHO we'll see a school get kicked out of a power conference (again) before we see a full split from the NCAA.

(04-22-2013 08:40 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-22-2013 08:08 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  Exactly.

Cinderella needs the Power 5 more than the Power 5 needs Cinderella.

The NCAA lives and dies by it bball tournament revenue that would disappear if the P5 broke off from it. They know that which is why they would be very willing to let the P5 have their own subdivision for football...which will NOT include the AAC or MWC any other G5 league.

That way there can be an 8 team playoff with 5 AQ bids and 3 wild card slots

Yup. And half the big boys will be sub .500 and will not be heading to bowls. That's not what the fans of those teams, the alumni, or their AD's want. The Texas Techs, UCLAs, and N Carolinas of the world dont want to qualify for a bowl once evey 4 or 5 years. The P5 will at least include the MW and the AAC in the break away (if not most of FBS). I could see minimum budget criteria being set or some other logical basis for a reasonable split. The remaining FBS left behinds would combine withe the top of FCS to rebuild FBS. FCS would basically become small college football---which would work just fine for those that were left there.

This is the big question. The NFL has the same problem, but that doesn't slow fans down. We just don't know how college fans will react to the change. Are they willing to risk more losses by playing better opponents?

I think you can argue that they will be okay with the risk, but I agree making this change is an epic gamble. Right now, you basically have to go 11-1 to even have a shot a the championship. But under the new model, you could probably go 9-3 or maybe 8-4 and still have a chance, so losses aren't as lethal to your season.

(04-22-2013 08:58 AM)JunkYardCard Wrote:  

(04-22-2013 08:40 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(04-22-2013 08:08 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  Exactly.

Cinderella needs the Power 5 more than the Power 5 needs Cinderella.

The NCAA lives and dies by it bball tournament revenue that would disappear if the P5 broke off from it. They know that which is why they would be very willing to let the P5 have their own subdivision for football...which will NOT include the AAC or MWC any other G5 league.

That way there can be an 8 team playoff with 5 AQ bids and 3 wild card slots

Yup. And half the big boys will be sub .500 and will not be heading to bowls. That's not what the fans of those teams, the alumni, or their AD's want. The Texas Techs, UCLAs, and N Carolinas of the world dont want to qualify for a bowl once evey 4 or 5 years. The P5 will at least include the MW and the AAC in the break away (if not most of FBS). I could see minimum budget criteria being set or some other logical basis for a reasonable split. The remaining FBS left behinds would combine withe the top of FCS to rebuild FBS. FCS would basically become small college football---which would work just fine for those that were left there.

This is the big question. The NFL has the same problem, but that doesn't slow fans down. We just don't know how college fans will react to the change. Are they willing to risk more losses by playing better opponents?

I think you can argue that they will be okay with the risk, but I agree making this change is an epic gamble. Right now, you basically have to go 11-1 to even have a shot a the championship. But under the new model, you could probably go 9-3 or maybe 8-4 and still have a chance, so losses aren't as lethal to your season.

Its not really so much the championship where I see and issue. Its the middle class and lower middle class power conference teams that have been relatively successful under the current system. These teams go bowling most years under the current system, but are rarely competetive for a conference crown. Under a breakaway, they become permanent under-500 schools that rarely go bowling. I'd say 2/3 of the power conference schools risk potentially falling into this category. I just dont see that as a viable model for most of the power-5 schools. Thats why I think at least some non-AQ leagues will be included in the breakaway (possibly all of them). If the breakway is complete (football and basketball) there will be a significant increase in money when the football money funneled to FCS, Div 2, and Div 3 schools is cut off. Additinally, there is a huge increase in basketball money when the potential NCAA-64 field is cut from over 300 schools to just 126. Half of the FBS schools would be in the field every year. Thats a huge bump for the conferences. There is still room for cinderellas, and still plenty of money left to run a governing organization that funds non-revenue sports championships and oversees rules enforcement.

There is nothing to prevent a P5 team from playing a G5 team under this set up and counting them toward their win total. We already do this today with FBS teams playing FCS teams. You can say "well they'll just boycott" but no, no they won't. They need the payday and the exposure. Now it would mean more money and more even split of the games for those teams, but it won't mean UCLA will never play UNLV or that UW wont ever play EWU ever again.

So again, no reason to include any G5 league to take up a spot in your playoff.

I think the best route is for the big 10 and SEC just to expand to the point they control and regulate all things football wise. Ideally, you would just have one league, say the big 10 jump to 60 with six divisions of 10 + 8 team playoff, 6 division winners and 2 at large but that's probably not practical. I'd go with the big 10 jumping to 40 with 4 divisions of 10 and the sec jump to 24 with 4 divisions of 6, than they run show with 64 programs. Each league would have a 2 game playoff of division winners than a title among between big 10-sec in a bowl. Of course, the trick is how to carve things up? + you got texas and nd not wanting to be an equal partners, so how do you force the issue? Right now its just patchwork.

(04-22-2013 09:38 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Its not really so much the championship where I see and issue. Its the middle class and lower middle class power conference teams that have been relatively successful under the current system. These teams go bowling most years under the current system, but are rarely competitive for a conference crown. Under a breakaway, they become permanent under-500 schools that rarely go bowling.

That's really a great point when making a comparison to the NFL. The NFL works because there is a salary cap and revenue sharing, and those factors mean pretty much anyone can make a Super Bowl.

You just won't have that in college because players aren't drafted. They have to volunteer to go to a certain school. And we all know the revenue won't be anywhere near equal. So unless they make some other changes to equalize things, then your prognosis is going to be all too accurate.

(04-22-2013 08:27 AM)apex_pirate Wrote:  

(04-22-2013 08:08 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  Exactly.

Cinderella needs the Power 5 more than the Power 5 needs Cinderella.

The NCAA lives and dies by it bball tournament revenue that would disappear if the P5 broke off from it. They know that which is why they would be very willing to let the P5 have their own subdivision for football...which will NOT include the AAC or MWC any other G5 league.

That way there can be an 8 team playoff with 5 AQ bids and 3 wild card slots

Not that anyone cares, but that's the day I stop watching collegiate sports....or at least those in the new division. I don't claim it will make a difference. I just will have had enough.

Doubt the above statement is true though or they would have already gone through with it.

Agree. I could not care less about the NFL or NBA. A semi-pro league modeked after them would suck. I like college sports.

There is another obstacle to a breakaway.

The presidents of the potential breakaway schools.

They barely have control of their athletic programs as it is. Making them bigger, richer, and more powerful isn't in their best interest.

If the AD and president at a number of major schools don't see eye-to-eye and start calling in political chips to get the other ousted, the AD's are going to win a lot of those battles.

(04-22-2013 09:43 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  There is nothing to prevent a P5 team from playing a G5 team under this set up and counting them toward their win total. We already do this today with FBS teams playing FCS teams. You can say "well they'll just boycott" but no, no they won't. They need the payday and the exposure. Now it would mean more money and more even split of the games for those teams, but it won't mean UCLA will never play UNLV or that UW wont ever play EWU ever again.

So again, no reason to include any G5 league to take up a spot in your playoff.

Well, other than the fact that over half the FBS college football television watching audience are fans of teams you would eliminate. Since they design their own rules, the playoff could be set up similar to what it is. If they took the MW and AAC, they have the vast majority of long time FBS members. The MW and AAC could play one another in a "play in" game to narrow the number of playoff slots they require to one. You end up with an FBS at around 85 to 90 schools--thats about the historical average size of FBS. With an 8 team playoff, FBS would have a auto-bid for all 5 power conferences and an auto-bid for the winner of the MW vs AAc play-in game. There would also be 2 wild cards available. The best part is that at 85-90 schools, the television viewing audience stays at about its historical average with the same number of FBS fanbases involved as has historically been part of the top level of college football. Not too big, not too small.

Sure you could make a little more by eliminating them, but doing this has already eliminated a quarter of the FBS schools, all the FCS and lower division schools. Plus, its not like the split wouldnt massively favor the power conferences anyway. Cutting FBS more wouldnt result in much additional monetary gain. In fact, cutting further might actually reduce the pie by reducing the number of TV fans with a rooting interest in FBS football.

I get that you don't want UH to be left out but there is no reason to include either league because nobody watches them.

That's the point.

The MAC has been around forever but nobody watches MAC football in any appreciable numbers.

There is zero reason for the conferences that generate the money to include 2 conferences that generate no money just for body bag games.

(04-22-2013 10:34 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  I get that you don't want UH to be left out but there is no reason to include either league because nobody watches them.

That's the point.

The MAC has been around forever but nobody watches MAC football in any appreciable numbers.

There is zero reason for the conferences that generate the money to include 2 conferences that generate no money just for body bag games.

I'd match Cincinnati's football ratings with many of the schools in the Power 5 (particularly the mid-tier of the Power 5 and below). Last year they had the 3rd highest rated Thursday night game on ESPN and the 2nd highest Friday night game. They also had three other nationally televised games that garnered very good to solid television ratings. The Belk Bowl against Duke had a 22% increase from the NC State/Louisville game the year before and had higher ratings than the 2 games before it. I could go back the past several years and point out very good television numbers as well that outdistance many of the Power 5 schools.

That speaks more for one of the P5 conferences inviting Cincy (or UConn) than it would inviting the entire AAC conference

(04-22-2013 10:27 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Well, other than the fact that over half the FBS college football television watching audience are fans of teams you would eliminate. ..

Since the large popular schools are the ones not being eliminated, I find that hard to imagine.

The day of the Big 5 schools breaking away is coming closer. I've thought that since the CFA formed. Nothing that has happened since has changed my mind...

I honestly think if they don't break off in the near term (5-10years), it wont happen.

My belief is the college football is in a sweet spot right now. Live TV programming is huge for TV ads right now and they still have a rabid fan base of us adults who grew up loving college sports. Perfect environment.

TV is trending differently though and will continue to trend on-line. Kids have much more to do today as well. My kids will never have cable TV. They rarely watch TV now, spending any "tech" time we give them either on the computer or playing video games. I take them to TU football games and they enjoy them but they never watch any games on TV.

20 years from now, I just don't see TV brining them near the dollars they do now, nor do I see today's kids providing them with the same numbers of rabid adult fans that we do today.

And that doesn't even touch on the economy side of things. I'm baffled as many people spend the money to go to the games now. They certainly don't have it. Credit cards I guess.

(04-22-2013 10:34 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  I get that you don't want UH to be left out but there is no reason to include either league because nobody watches them.

That's the point.

The MAC has been around forever but nobody watches MAC football in any appreciable numbers.

There is zero reason for the conferences that generate the money to include 2 conferences that generate no money just for body bag games.

I wouldn't be surprised if some sort of anti-trust lawsuit comes up against the BCS teams/conferences.

one certainly would if they were dumb enough to break from the NCAA itself.

staying in it with a new P5 subdivision for football only is having your cake and eating it too.

(04-22-2013 11:45 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The day of the Big 5 schools breaking away is coming closer. I've thought that since the CFA formed. Nothing that has happened since has changed my mind...

If that is attempted all of the smaller schools will either have to stick together and either play hardball in regards to other sports or go away.

Make it a clean hard break. No mixing in any sports including bowls. No need for college teams to cooperate with a semi-pro league.

That's how it should be. But I suspect the Big 5 will wave a $50 bill and get compliance.

(04-22-2013 05:55 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(04-22-2013 11:45 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  The day of the Big 5 schools breaking away is coming closer. I've thought that since the CFA formed. Nothing that has happened since has changed my mind...

If that is attempted all of the smaller schools will either have to stick together and either play hardball in regards to other sports or go away.

Make it a clean hard break. No mixing in any sports including bowls. No need for college teams to cooperate with a semi-pro league.

That's how it should be. But I suspect the Big 5 will wave a $50 bill and get compliance.

Yea, if they're going to break away, it should be in all sports. I think they may very well have lawsuits even if they don't break away from the NCAA, depending on what the Big 5 tries to do. If they do break away I'll find other things to do than watch a semi-pro football league.