http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...oma-others

From the article:

After citing sources "from conference offices and major-college athletic departments" skeptical that the grant of rights would actually be enough to keep schools committed to jumping from one conference to another in place, Barfknecht casually drops the following tidbit:

As a sidenote, two sources have told The World-Herald that the Big Ten has done prior “homework” on Oklahoma, Kansas and Vanderbilt among other schools who might some day be expansion targets. The Big 12 grant-of-rights deal didn't stop a look-see for OU and KU.

First of all: Vanderbilt? Maybe the Big Ten really is serious about its academic standing. (And major metropolitan markets, of course.)

Vanderbilt. Nashville. South. Demographics. Academics.

And yes, they were were one of those 15 schools identified back in '09 (prior to the Nebraska addition)

Don't get how the big 10 could pick up OU but pass on FSU. Vandy? maybe nice for a study but not realistic. I'm waiting for the RICE and U Buffalo to the big 10 rumors.

I could see the B1G going after us (KU), and likely MU in ten years or so. Whether we'd be interested, I don't know.

The most interesting scenerio for the Big 12 is an outright merger with another conference. I could see with the PAC, SEC, or B1G. In the past, the ACC, but their star has faded.

(04-23-2013 03:18 PM)bluesox Wrote:  Don't get how the big 10 could pick up OU but pass on FSU. Vandy? maybe nice for a study but not realistic. I'm waiting for the RICE and U Buffalo to the big 10 rumors.

You can't have what you can't get.

How long is the distance between the Tennessee and Illinois borders at the closest point? 50 miles?

(04-23-2013 03:29 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I could see the B1G going after us (KU), and likely MU in ten years or so. Whether we'd be interested, I don't know.

The most interesting scenerio for the Big 12 is an outright merger with another conference. I could see with the PAC, SEC, or B1G. In the past, the ACC, but their star has faded.

I don't think the SEC would ever take all of the Big 12 schools but would love Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Missouri and Arkansas would be ecstatic, and TAMU could learn to live with UT if it meant getting back Oklahoma.

Vandy to the BIG made a lot of sense if Duke was also part of the equation. Being in conference with Northwestern and Duke would be a huge temptation for Vandy. Despite being in state, UT really doesn't care about playing Vandy (Bama, Georgia, Florida, are definitely bigger), and neither does UK except in Bball. Ole Miss is really their biggest football rival. The BIG could do worse than adding Vandy. Top 20 school in a top 30 media market, plus we (I live in Nashville) have a ton of residents from Big 10 country. I don't want to see it, but it would work.

(04-23-2013 03:49 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  

(04-23-2013 03:29 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I could see the B1G going after us (KU), and likely MU in ten years or so. Whether we'd be interested, I don't know.

The most interesting scenerio for the Big 12 is an outright merger with another conference. I could see with the PAC, SEC, or B1G. In the past, the ACC, but their star has faded.

I don't think the SEC would ever take all of the Big 12 schools but would love Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Missouri and Arkansas would be ecstatic, and TAMU could learn to live with UT if it meant getting back Oklahoma.

Vandy to the BIG made a lot of sense if Duke was also part of the equation. Being in conference with Northwestern and Duke would be a huge temptation for Vandy. Despite being in state, UT really doesn't care about playing Vandy (Bama, Georgia, Florida, are definitely bigger), and neither does UK except in Bball. Ole Miss is really their biggest football rival. The BIG could do worse than adding Vandy. Top 20 school in a top 30 media market, plus we (I live in Nashville) have a ton of residents from Big 10 country. I don't want to see it, but it would work.

That would be interesting. SEC would need to take a private school to fill their spot.

This is not entirely about the Big10 but more about the Northeast and the challenges long term the Big10 faces if it doesn't expand outside of its current geographical footpring.

Assuming the information is accurate:



Some people in the Northeast just don’t get it or refuse to even entertain the thought that (1) Football drives the bus, BB is a distant second and not even in the ball park in terms of value (2) the Northeast is dominated by pro sports and nothing is going to change that not now not ever (3) college FB simply doesn’t have the traction in the Northeast (4) people are leaving the Rust belt and Northeastern states in droves for various reasons that are to numerous to even begin to get into.

College FB is dominated by the Southern, Midwest, Texas regions and to a lesser extent Southern California. Heck College FB is more important to fans in the Rocky Mountain region that to the fans of the Northeast.
Now I hear this and that about the Big 5 conferences and whatever but what seems to go unnoticed is that while some of the smaller conferences certainly don’t have the status of the BIG BOY conferences it sure helps to be in the same states as some….Some of these BIG BOY programs can anchor an entire state of multiple Division 1 teams, they don’t have to be High Major. So if a small state or smaller state has several D1 programs, regardless of conference level, that should tell anybody with a functioning brain that college football is probably a big deal in some of the states…I mean come on now even the most horrible teams can do 22 to 25 K a game at home, that would be same as or more than lets say Kentucky Basketball, the same UK with the most rabid BB fan base in the entire country. Keep in mind no matter how good or how powerful the BB brand is the certainly ceiling is very low when compared to FB. Some people just absolutely refuse to believe it but it’s just the way it is like it or not. I think some people either totally dismiss it or simply don’t understand fandom, these lower conference teams fan bases are also part of the Flagship state teams fan base and you would be shocked at how many Flagship fan bases follow the in state brethren lower conference teams…for example that’s why states like Louisana/Alabama each have five D1 programs even though neither is a really big state population wise…..they each have five D1 teams because that’s what the fans of each state demand.


Just a quick comparison of the SEC and Big10, nothing more than states each conference has a foot print in. The SEC footprint states has an astounding 48 D1 programs total, 14 more than the Big10 even though the Big10 has 13 more million population….Midwest transplants that have moved South over the last 20/30 years almost to a person will tell you FB is the South is a different animal than the Big10. I know lots of these people and most all are from Ohio and Buckeyes fans. I can also tell you that these transplants children also end up going to colleges in the South and not the Midwest so you have these generational shift in allegiance over years and years.
As you can clearly see the additions of Rutgers and Maryland were most likely done out of necessity and probably a must, whether they could get NC Tar heels/Virginia or not. The Big10 states have been hemorrhaging for years. Florida and Georgia together had larger population shifts on the plus side than the ENTIRE Big10 footprint combined. The big enchilada still out there for both the SEC ad Big10 is without question the state of North Carolina which may or may not happen, especially in light of the GOR agreement if one believes it has any really teeth to it which no one knows unless they have ACTUALLY read the agreement in its entirety.

The difference in the growth rates is just absolutely mind boggling and the trends are predicted to continue.

The SEC footprint 90,130,601
The Big10 footprint 103,244,112

The SEC footprint added 11,337,550 between 2000 and 2010
The Big10 footprint added 3,563,662 between 2000 and 2010

The SEC footprint growth rate 15.8% between 2000 and 2010
The Big10 footprint grow rate 4.5% between 2000 and 2010

GROWTH RATES

Texas 20.6
Georgia 18.3
Florida 17.6
South Carolina 15.3
Tennessee 11.5
Arkansas 9.1
Alabama 7.5
Kentucky 7.4
Missouri 7.0
Mississippi 4.3
Louisana 1.4

Maryland 9.0
Minnesota 7.8
Nebraska 6.7
Indiana 6.6
Wisconsin 6.0
New Jersey 4.5
Iowa 4.1
Pennsylvania 3.4
Illinois 3.3
New York 2.1
Ohio 1.6
Michigan -0.6 NEGATIVE

Notice the Big states with the big population centers of the Big10 are all at the low end of the growth rate and just the opposite for the ZSEC big states.


I would also note the SEC thus far is the only one of the Big5 that has not dipped down into a far lesser stature league to expand.

Vandy to the Big10 is not ever going to happen either.

Tulane must be rooting for vandy to join the big 10 or smu. I really don't see any chance vandy would jump or the big 10 offering , nice for study but useless. If the big 10 were trying to pick off sec school's, i'd start with Kentucky and missouri to get to 16.

Politics in Oklahoma will keep OU & Ok state together. I dont see them being split up. Kansas & Vandy yes they could jump ship & not look back.

(04-23-2013 04:08 PM)bluesox Wrote:  Tulane must be rooting for vandy to join the big 10 or smu. I really don't see any chance vandy would jump or the big 10 offering , nice for study but useless. If the big 10 were trying to pick off sec school's, i'd start with Kentucky and missouri to get to 16.

Despite being a fan, I know UK's limitations. We are not even in the same ballpark academically as the rest of the BIG. Nashville serves as the hub of the mid-South (southern KY, TN, north Alabama), and transitioning in Vandy would be seamless for the BIG. You are correct about Missouri, especially if a play is made for Kansas in upcoming years.

(04-23-2013 03:29 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I could see the B1G going after us (KU), and likely MU in ten years or so. Whether we'd be interested, I don't know.

The most interesting scenerio for the Big 12 is an outright merger with another conference. I could see with the PAC, SEC, or B1G. In the past, the ACC, but their star has faded.

This from a fan of the Short Bus Conference.

Cheers,
Neil

(04-23-2013 03:18 PM)bluesox Wrote:  Don't get how the big 10 could pick up OU but pass on FSU. Vandy? maybe nice for a study but not realistic. I'm waiting for the RICE and U Buffalo to the big 10 rumors.

While the "contiguous state" rule is not an official requirement for expansion, it is as close to official as it can get. I think the only school that could get around that rule is Texas.

I'm also not sure that they weren't looking at Florida State. The article says they were looking at numerous schools, a list which included Kansas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt.

(04-23-2013 03:18 PM)bluesox Wrote:  Don't get how the big 10 could pick up OU but pass on FSU. Vandy? maybe nice for a study but not realistic. I'm waiting for the RICE and U Buffalo to the big 10 rumors.

Ive joked about the B1G taking Buffalo as a "fixer upper". It would take alot of money, time and effort to get them even close to being competitive. It would be a nice way for the B1G to stick it to the ACC. Other than athletics Buffalo fits the profile. Have to start somewhere. Who knows, in another generation Buffalo may some day become the "new york college team" Syracuse wants to be. Now if there was only some way to convince New Yorkers to care more about college FB and the powers that be that run the university system that investing in big time college athletics would be worth it. (about 50 years too late if you ask me)

I thought the big 10 should have added FSU for team 15 and see who that opened up in the acc. Worse case, they could find team 16 pretty easy, i probably would gone with syracuse if UVA passed. My guess is the big 10 commish wanted UNC and was trying to corner them and it backfired with the acc getting locked down if you buy the GOR thing. I suspect the sec will have a GOR soon too, so those school's will be theoretically off the table. In that case, everybody will be locked down unless the pac 10 jumps to 20 and gets the big 12 to go poof. I like the pac 20 concept but texas will need to KO the LHN.

(04-23-2013 04:22 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  

(04-23-2013 03:18 PM)bluesox Wrote:  Don't get how the big 10 could pick up OU but pass on FSU. Vandy? maybe nice for a study but not realistic. I'm waiting for the RICE and U Buffalo to the big 10 rumors.

Ive joked about the B1G taking Buffalo as a "fixer upper". It would take alot of money, time and effort to get them even close to being competitive. It would be a nice way for the B1G to stick it to the ACC. Other than athletics Buffalo fits the profile. Have to start somewhere. Who knows, in another generation Buffalo may some day become the "new york college team" Syracuse wants to be. Now if there was only some way to convince New Yorkers to care more about college FB and the powers that be that run the university system that investing in big time college athletics would be worth it. (about 50 years too late if you ask me)

If you take Buffalo, you might as well take the University of Toronto... wait... that is a top 20 global school. They already know football through the CFL, have good basketball talent (just google Ontario basketball players of the last 5 years, Andrew Wiggins among them). Talk about owning a market. Somebody run with this idea!

(04-23-2013 03:49 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  

(04-23-2013 03:29 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I could see the B1G going after us (KU), and likely MU in ten years or so. Whether we'd be interested, I don't know.

The most interesting scenerio for the Big 12 is an outright merger with another conference. I could see with the PAC, SEC, or B1G. In the past, the ACC, but their star has faded.

I don't think the SEC would ever take all of the Big 12 schools but would love Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Missouri and Arkansas would be ecstatic, and TAMU could learn to live with UT if it meant getting back Oklahoma.

I would respectfully disagree with this.

Keeping UT and OU out of the SEC is of prime importance to us so we keep our new found recruiting advantage in Texas.

And "getting back Oklahoma"?

I don't quite get this. OU is UT's rival, not ours. I respect OU's football program tremendously but there is no desire by A&M to "get back" an annual game with the Sooners.

(04-23-2013 04:33 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  

(04-23-2013 03:49 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  

(04-23-2013 03:29 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  I could see the B1G going after us (KU), and likely MU in ten years or so. Whether we'd be interested, I don't know.

The most interesting scenerio for the Big 12 is an outright merger with another conference. I could see with the PAC, SEC, or B1G. In the past, the ACC, but their star has faded.

I don't think the SEC would ever take all of the Big 12 schools but would love Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Missouri and Arkansas would be ecstatic, and TAMU could learn to live with UT if it meant getting back Oklahoma.

I would respectfully disagree with this.

Keeping UT and OU out of the SEC is of prime importance to us so we keep our new found recruiting advantage in Texas.

And "getting back Oklahoma"?

I don't quite get this. OU is UT's rival, not ours. I respect OU's football program tremendously but there is no desire by A&M to "get back" an annual game with the Sooners.

"Get back" was the wrong word... I meant in terms of trade-off. Having to deal with UT in order to add another good school (Oklahoma) is in the overall league's interests. Believe me, it would have been in Georgia's best interest for football to never add USC, but it was done to better the league, same with LSU for Arkansas. Before that, LSU was the natural choice for anyone from the southwest to come if they wanted to play SEC ball. TAMU must realize that, if expansion is to occur in the future, they are going to get some neighbors to the west and/or north.

By the way, I never see Texas entering the SEC unless things change so much over DECADES that it makes sense to them. I know it will never happen as long as Dodds is AD. Just adding Oklahoma would be great for the SEC as a whole. A rising tide lifts all ships, and TAMU does not have the same approach to competition as Texas. They can handle those recruiting battles.

I don't think its just us, I think that most of the Western schools & Mizzou have no desire for more Western neighbors. Right or wrong and whether it is enough or not, our vote will always be "no" to any Big 12 South schools

Besides, the main problem there (as others have pointed out) is both OU and UT have political tag-alongs who have to be taken care of and I can't see the SEC expanding that large to accommodate all of them.

On the other hand, the PAC would take the Texoma 4 combo in a heartbeat.