(04-26-2013 05:31 PM)Poliicious Wrote: [quote='Tiger8589' pid='9273089' dateline='
Some more growth rate numbers:
Texas 20.6%
Florida 17.6%
Georgia 18.3 %
Tennessee 11.5%
Alabama 7.5%
South Carolina 15.3%
New York 2.1%
New Jersey 4.5%
Pennsylvania 3.4%
Ohio 1.6%
Illinois 3.3%
Michigan -.6%
sunbelt states are no doubt growing, what your analysis is over looking is that
1) While A&M gets the SEC a foothold in Texas, that state has been and will continue to be dominated by the Big 12 as long as UT, TT, TCU & Baylor remain in that conference, if they move to the 12 PAC, the 12 PAC will own Texas. Large state but A&M gets the SEC only a slice of it. The state of Texas growth will benefit the Big 12 more than the SEC.
2) Florida, tremendous growth but FSU & Miami(ACC) have a huge portion of the CFB fanbase in Florida. 3rd largest state in the country but a large portion of the fanbase is ACC not SEC.
3) While University of Georgia dominates the state and it's growing significantly; GT has a significant slice of the fanbase. SEC dominated state but ACC gets a slice of those millions.Georgia's growth benefits both the SEC & ACC
4) Tennessee & Alabama both SEC dominated at least for football. Memphis has a huge hoops fanbase and the Tigers playing better hoops competition (UConn, Cincy, Temple) should grow that sport for them.
5) South Carolina: another state whose CFB fanbase is almost evenly split between the SEC & the ACC. USC & Clemson have almost identical attendance and I doubt that there's much overlap between the 2 programs. in that state. South Carolina's growth benefits both the ACC & SEC.
New Jersey(#10), Ohio(#7), Michigan(#8) & Illinois(#5) not growing nearly as rapidly but those 3 states only have AQ teams from the Big 10. Big 10 doesn't share the CFB fanbase of those states with any other AQ conferences.
While PSU dominates Pitt in PA; Pitt does get a good slice of the CFB fanbase but judging from the attendance difference between the 2 programs being more than 2/1 in PSU's favor. The nation's 6th largest state
much more Big 10 than ACC
NY state not a CFB hotbed but the addition of Rutgers to PSU gives the Big10 a sizeable slice of the #3 states fanbase with the ACC because of Syracuse having the majority.
There are 21 states that have 10 more more electoral votes for Presidential Election Purposes:
3 of those are in 12 PAC country: Cal 55, WA 11, AZ 10= 76
1 is Big 12 dominated: Texas 34=34(although A&M gives SEC sizeable foothold)
3 are ACC dominated: MA 12, VA13, NC 15= 40
1 is split between the ACC & SEC: FL= 27
3 are split between the ACC & Big 10: IN 11, PA 21 & NY 31=63
3 are SEC dominated MO 11, TN 11, Ga 15(eventhough GT has a sizeable fanbase here. = 37
7 are Big 10 Dominated: MD 10, NJ 15, OH 20, MI 17, WI 10, IL 21, MN 10
= 103
With the GOR giving the ACC stability it needed; if the new additions to the conference in IN, NY, PA can continue their upswing (ND & Syracuse) or find their way to stability and a better on the field product(Pitt), the ACC has a real shot at moving into the top tier of conferences (12 PAC, SEC, B10) in terms of TV ratings and attendance.
A stable and resurgent ACC should give the SEC reason for concern about their continued control of the southeast.
It’s true the Big10 has some big states but all are bleeding. The key targeted demo is the ones fleeing in record numbers year after year. Like I said previously the Big10 is fine for now and in the near term but 15/20 plus year out they are facing real challenges.
I agree to disagree; my analysis does not overlook anything. You have your opinion and I have mine.
Not sure what the point is. I think anybody would agree, NO MATTER WHO THE SCHOOL IS, would benefit greatly from haring a state with an SEC member. But, make no mistake about it and you can take it to the bank the SEC school is the lead dog in those states….with the exception of Texas but at the same time Texas A&M is the number two team in the second largest state and is in the early stages of expanding to 100,000.
(1) Anyone who doesn’t believe Texas A&M/SEC isn’t going to have major implications on college FB is naïve in my opinion. LSU/Arkansas has always recruited Texas. Let me remind you that Baylor, TT, TCU are not on the same planet as Texas A&M in terms of finances and infrastructure. One more key point and this is VERY IMPORTANT…the Big12 has a GRAND TOTAL of one super marquee match up per season and that Texas/Oklahoma, THAT’S IT. So just as an example of what we could all see in the future for whatever season, year in year out, when Texas and Texas A&M play on the same day and sometimes the same time slot.
Texas vs Baylor Texas A&M vs LSU
Texas vs TCU Texas A&M vs Alabama
Texas vs TT Texas A&M vs Auburn
Texas vs Kansas Texas A&M vs Arkansas
Texas vs Kansas St Texas A&M vs Florida in certain seasons (or Ga or UT or whoever)
Texas A&M is not going to be facing a shortfall of big games just about every single weekend, Texas does not have the same caliber of match ups that command the same type of attention each and every weekend.
(2) Florida owns the state. Period, anybody thinks otherwise is kidding themselves. In the South I can guarantee anybody that’ll listen, FSU/Miami fans also watch Florida and vice versa, it’s a win win for everybody but out of the three UF/FSU/Miami…Florida is the dominant brand and team in the state. If anybody thinks Florida doesn’t have sufficient fan base just turn the TV on during FB season and watch….also I can tell you Florida has fans, and a lot more than people might think, in every single state the SEC is in.
(3) Putting GT in the same sentence as Georgia is almost comical. No knock on GT but it’s just a fact Georgia owns the state, GT is a distant second…Let me rephrase that GT IS A DISTANT SECOND.
(4) Expansion is about Football….Memphis has a great BB fan base but I’m here to tell you or anyone that’ll listen Memphis is not a College Football city. UT has far ,by a large margin, more fans than Memphis in West TN not to mention a ton of fans in memphis itself and Ole Miss also has lots of Fans in Memphis. Memphis FB can only get better but they have a low ceiling…when your BB team has a higher ceiling than FB that’s not good in the overall scheme of things.
(5) South Carolina/Clemson more or less equal. However, SC is the state school and also just happens to play in the premier college FB conference in the entire country.
I have already pointed out my reasoning as far as sharing states among AQ members. Basically, it means nothing. Here is the absolute truth that seems to be glossed over…..States that have more than one AQ team has one plus for a reason….the reason being those states can support them WHILE OTHERS CANNOT. Florida sharing the state with FSU/Miami has absolutely ZERO negative impact on Florida….none whatsoever, not in TV dollars, fan appeal, revenue, or anything else. Again, Florida is the top dog in the state.
Now another quick point that people either don’t understand because they don’t know the culture or just refuse to believe it…..SEC fans number one have allegiance to their team and after that EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM ALMOST TO A PERSON ARE 100% RABID HARDCORE SEC FANS AS A WHOLE. Not one conference in this entire country has a fan base that circles the wagons of the conference like SEC fans……example: Florida/Alabama/LSU/UT/GA all have large followings in every SEC state even though they are second on the totem pole for whatever fans in whatever state.
Saying the Big10 doesn’t share whatever state with other AQ teams is about as meaningless argument as I’ve heard. How about this Ohio State has doesn’t share the state with another AQ team right…..why don’t they have a 200,000 seat stadium then? By these arguments some make it sound lke not sharing a state should trump everything…fact is it has no bearing. This is simple, does whatever aid state have enough fan support to support one or more than one high major D1 FB team? some do some don't.
Here is the truth in my opinion….people can believe and spin things however they want. The South is ABSOLUTELY 100% SEC COUNTRY AND THE ACC IS THE BENEFICARY OF BEING IN THE SAME FOOTPRINT IN SOME STATES. It’ been that way FOREVER and is going to continue to be. The ACC did what they had to do by adding Pitt/Cuse/UofL but please use some common sense and not just think the ACC is somehow going to come out of nowhere and challenge the SEC.
Stating the ACC should give the SEC reason for concern about their continued control of the Southeast is comical when you cut through all the spinning and look at the hard facts and the nuts and bolts of everything. The ACC has a GRAND total of ONE NEXT LEVEL TYPE CADILLAC FB BRAND and that’s FSU. Don’t mistake Miami/Clemson/GT/VT as being one of those type programs because in reality they are not. FSU is the only program in the entire ACC that moves the needle in a SIGNIFICANT way.
Now one thing I do agree on is the ACC has a REAL chance to elevate its status long term. Why? Because of recruiting. I’ve always been one of those that looked at the SEC/ACC together as far as recruiting because the ACC gets a ton of players from the South as well, just not as many as the SEC. Just a quick example: when looking at the NFL draft its always wise to look at the SEC plus FSU/Miami/GT/Clemson/NC/NCST/VT to see the total number of drafted players as opposed to say the Big 10….Fact is the South has room for two High Major conferences…..no other region can say that. The South has two High Major conferences because the fan support and infrastructure is there and has been forever. If these team were in reality splitting fans bases and states and the other nonsense Florida would be playing in front of 50,000, GA in front of 50,000, MS in front or 25,000, Ala in front of 50,000, UT in front of 50,000 and on and on and on and one…..again these arguments about sharing AQ teams in the same state is meaningless because it doesn’t measure up to the historical records and facts and CERTAINLY HAS NO BEARING ON revenue and TV dollars for the SEC and its teams.
So let me see here. As far as the Electoral College goes your point doesn’t make sense because the fact is the SEC has a footprint in states that have
The Big 10 125 EC population footprint 103,244,112 (and that includes giving them the whole state of NY which some thinks shouldn’t be included)
The SEC 113 EC and closing fast, population footprint 90,130,610 (take ½ of NY from the Big10 and the Big10/SEC are now basically even…with the SEC having a far larger overall fan base as a whole…heck that’s the case even if you give the Big10 all of NY)
The Big10 has an advantage right? Why doesn’t it translate into winning championships and being considered by far the premier conference? Answer….because the Big10 footprint still doesn’t have the most blue chip talent, even with a small population advantage.
All the big states in the Big10 are facing MAJOR short and long term financial problems and none are business friendly….thus, people are leaving in droves. These are real issues. These are undeniable facts.
I would say 15 to 20 years out the Big 10 is the one that should be worried about the ACC closing ground….I can assure you the SEC is not going to loose ground to the ACC….that simply is not going to happen. I mean for goodness sakes Ole Miss has more tradition than North Carolina Tar heels FB.
But of course Big10 fans think just the opposite. Doesn’t really matter one way or the other. Time and the next round of TV/Internet contracts several years from now are going to be the telling answer to everything. I know one thing for certain….some of these conferences absolutely need to start doing more winning and a lot less talking.
Another point to consider….Jim Delany has been on the record stating the long term challenges of the shifting populations away from the rust belt and also has been on the record stating the challenges of trying to penetrate the NE markets because of all the pro sports. SO DON’T TAKE MY WORD TAKE THE BIG 10 COMMISSIONERS WORD.
I think but am not sure the SEC usually leads all conferences in attendance but the Big10 isn’t that far behind, I could be wrong on that but I think its right. The SEC by a STAGGERING MARGIN tops the top 25 in recruiting every season….8 teams is as normal as the days is long. I think I have even seen some seasons they have had 10 teams but could be wrong on that.
Now here is a set of FACTS that are not up for debate.
The BCS era of 15 years
National championships
SEC 9 (and astounding 5 different teams)
Big12 2 (two different teams)
Pac 12 1 (vacated)
Big10 1 (Ohio St)
ACC 1 (FSU)
Big East 1 (Miami)
The SEC has beaten for the national Championship FSU, Oklahoma X2, Ohio St X2, Texas, Oregon, Notre Dame…and one year it was actually 2 SEC teams playing each other for the National Championship.
This kind of dominance is simply astounding. One conference winning 9 out of 15 with 5 different teams doing it. That’s not even remotely possible in any other conference.
Heck, one year Auburn was undefeated and they didn’t play for a national championship either.
SEC National Championship games
SEC average 29.8 points per game
Opponents average 15.1 point per games
Average margin of victory 14.7 A VERY SIGNIFICANT MARGIN
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Can the Big Ten do ANYTHING right?
