(05-14-2013 07:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (05-13-2013 09:51 PM)JRsec Wrote: Anyway that's why I don't think that Texas and Oklahoma will move to the SEC even if they had a desire to do so. Slive has no room for a third Texas team and Oklahoma is too small of a state to justify taking two. So the SEC will simply pass on both of them. That makes the remaining prizes Kansas and West Virginia which is what Slive would shoot for. Kansas will go Big 10 at the first opportunity. It's their best fit and it's a good fit for the Big 10 as well. So I think LSUtah's analysis of this is pretty much dead on. If anything happens to the Big 12 look for the SEC to take Kansas State (bigger state than Oklahoma) and West Virginia.
The SEC would be making a big mistake if it let Texas and Oklahoma, two of the top-ten blue-blood football programs, get away to the PAC or B1G without putting up a serious fight for them. IMO, the only schools out there that merit SEC expansion attention are:
1) Texas
2) UNC
3) Oklahoma
4) Virginia
If none of those will come then the SEC is better off not expanding at all.
I hope you would be right here QV but I don't see how we get them without going to 18. At that point we might as well go after West Virginia and one more for 20. I'm not sure the networks or anyone else will want to let us do that (unless it is ESPN).
The way I see it we have 3 national brands in the Big 12 and one strong regional brand (WVU). The SEC needs two to get to 16, The Big 10 needs two to get to 16, and the PAC needs 4 to finish out. The ACC could take two as well. The SEC wants flagship state universities. The Big 10 wants flagship state universities that are AAU. The PAC is more flexible like the SEC but wants what the Big 10 wants. The ACC will take private schools. The breakdown of the Big 12 has 4 schools that meet the SEC's criteria, 3 that meet the criteria of the Big 10, 5 that would meet the usual criteria of the ACC, and 7 that could meet the criteria of the PAC.
If FOX and ESPN cooperate here then each conference that takes teams will have to take a flagship, and one that would be on their margin. Otherwise this deal doesn't get done.
If the networks broker it I would look for the SEC to get at best 1 national brand and West Virginia to get to 16. But in all likelihood the SEC will get 1 new state and West Virginia.
The Big 10's best shot here would be Oklahoma and Kansas (even though OU isn't AAU). But, in all likelihood the Big 10 gets Kansas and settles for Iowa State (unless it decides to pick up UConn).
I don't see ESPN giving up on Texas so I see the Horns headed to the ACC as a hybrid so they can keep the LHN or as a full member if N.D. would join with them (won't happen). This could either happen singulary or with T.C.U. and Baylor going with the Horns to the ACC as full members.
In one scenario the PAC gets one national brand in Oklahoma. But they pick up Kansas State, Texas Tech, and possibly Iowa State if the Big 10 goes for UConn, or T.C.U. if they don't. That gives them DFW and West Texas, a national brand and 3 central time zone states to expand their content via time slot. If Oklahoma insists upon Oklahoma State coming along then I think the SEC would take Kansas State to pick up the larger of the remaining states on the table. There is a lot of negotiating room in any direction here except with the Big 10.
It's possible too that ESPN brings Texas to the ACC so that they can morph the LHN into an ACC network and add Texas to the ACC market footprint for the new network. If they do this then look for Texas to bring along either Baylor or T.C.U..
And these aren't the only possibilities either, but all I'll discuss right now.
So my point is that I just don't see the conference pressures, or network pressures allowing any 1 conference to cherry pick two national brands from the Big 12 without taking some of the others. Therefore 1 national brand or regional brand is the best that any of the remaining conferences could hope for if homes for all ten Big 12 schools are negotiated. Since the elimination of the 5th conference ups everyone's share of playoff revenue there is incentive to be accommodating.
And then again, the Big 12 could add two more cement itself and then if we want sixteen teams we start looking at our periphery for suitable candidates. Then as Vandiver and others have pointed out teams like Cincinnati, East Carolina, Southern Methodist, and South Florida are examined for their upside and their actual and potential market value.