(06-16-2013 03:00 AM)arkstfan Wrote: (06-16-2013 12:04 AM)JRsec Wrote: In the end the Longhorns will stick with ESPN and they will go where they can earn the most. Only the money will matter.
No they won't without massive changes in UT leadership.
When Colorado and Nebraska bailed, Texas could have gone to the SEC instead they talked to two leagues they deemed peers. The Pac-10 and Big 10. The Big 10 wouldn't be a refugee camp and TAMU wasn't going to "tag along" to the Pac-10. That's when Texas started cooperating with the save the Big XII crowd.
When Arkansas left TAMU was willing to go to the SEC. Texas talked to the Big 10 and Pac-10.
TAMU fits the SEC culturally and is an academic leader. Texas doesn't fit and they see the SEC as beneath them.
Well, that change in leadership is coming. Texas can certainly go where ever they choose. And, I'm not saying that the SEC wants them per se. What I am saying is that after over 40 years negotiating with everything from small business to corporations to non-profits I can tell you that for the last 30 of those years 1 factor has dominated in decision making.....cash. I doubt there is going to be sudden redirection of that standard in Austin or anywhere else. Now I would welcome a return to the principles of old, but I just don't see that as likely.
All of these schools that have made moves have done so for two reasons primarily money and/or fear. The ethos today is reactionary more than it is visionary. The only vision behind realignment has been one of more money and the form of it all is falling into only one vision and that is one in which there will eventually be an ease of structure for a playoff system to drive a broad commercial interest throughout the process. That is why the networks are providing the cash catalyst for change. They picked the time in which to accomplish this because it is a time of paradigm shift from private/state/federal funding into a model in which corporate grants will be a much larger part of university funding. Therefore, college presidents and their boards are looking for new revenue streams and television had its perfect opportunity to make the moves that facilitate the changes that will also profit them.
Into that mix comes the LHN. That money held the top athletic property in the camp of ESPN. If ESPN was willing to spend that money to keep Texas around they sure as heck aren't going to let them drift into the hands of FOX and Comcast. That leaves two choices for the Horns. The first would be to move to the ACC and help to cement the football credentials for that conference. The second is the SEC.
The Big 12 is tenuous because of the limited market exposure for that top property which would be more valuable to the holder of television rights in any of the other 4 conferences (but it just so happens that the top rights holder in this case would make more if they chose the ACC or SEC), and because they don't have the peers you claim they are looking for either academically, or financially in the Big 12. And the Big 12 is vulnerable long term because none of the rest of the teams can keep pace with any of the rest of the conferences without some kind of third tier enhancements (Oklahoma and Kansas excepted).
Perhaps ESPN will want the Horns in the ACC, but they would make a lot more money off of the Texas brand in the SEC. In the end what Slive wants, what Dodds wants, and what we want won't make a difference. It will be about what makes the payer of the contracts more money. I don't doubt that your view of what Texas wants is accurate. I do doubt that it will make any difference in the outcome.
When the Big 10 touts the CIC as a motivator to get a school to move people say they are moving for academics. That's hooey. They are moving to enhance their opportunities for grant money. Missouri is in the SEC for enhanced security (fear) and enhanced revenue (money). A&M will make more money in the SEC. Colorado and Utah will make more money in the PAC. Say what you will about Nebraska and Penn State but they both make more money in the Big 10. So show me one move in that last 20 years that has been made for cultural fit. Even N.D.'s moves have been motivated out of fear (loss of independence) and money (they make more with their own television deal for football).
So I'll consider other arguments when the reasons for them are other than fear and money.
/
A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
