(07-28-2013 05:55 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 10:07 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 09:18 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  Louisville is in a tough spot. A single loss will be nearly impossible to overcome. It might even keep them out of a BCS bowl.

Nah, as long as they win the AAC, they'll go to a BCS bowl. This is the last year the former BE has an auto-bid into the BCS.

If Louisville goes undefeated and there are not 2 or more P5 undefeateds and no big name SEC or B1G school has only 1 loss, then Louisville can make the National Championship game.

On another note, If Louisville does win the AAC and misses out on the Championship game, there's a pretty good chance they could end up in the Orange bowl against an ACC school. I don't think the SEC will give them another bid into the Sugar. Mainly because they don't like repeat teams in bowls but also because they lost.

Chris, this year the Orange Bowl picks 1st, then the Sugar, then the Fiesta. There is ZERO change the Orange picks Louisville (or any AAC champ). If Notre Dame is available it will be ACC vs. Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl - otherwise, it will be best available at-large (probably Big Ten or Big 12, assuming SEC puts a team into the BCS Title game).

In this scenario Louisville will go to the Fiesta Bowl to play the Big 12 champ. This is a LOCK.

Are you sure about that? I thought the Orange Bowl picked last the last 2 years of the BCS agreement.

(07-28-2013 06:08 AM)TegaCayCard Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 01:35 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 01:09 AM)7thHeaven Wrote:  If Louisville runs the table this year, Do you think Louisville has a chance to play for a National Championship?

Yes, but only if there are no other undefeated teams (or at least, not more than one other - and that one MUST be SEC)

Getting ahead of ourselves, Syracuse beat the snot out of us and UConn beat us at home. Still lots of work and some luck to run the table.

I could see Louisville losing to SU. Afterall, that game was at the Dome, and Syracuse was playing as well as any team in the BE the last half of the season. But that loss to Uconn is simply inexplicable. Uconn was just a bad, bad team. Ill never understand how The Ville lost that game to Uconn and then proceed to blow Florida off the field.

(07-28-2013 10:13 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 06:08 AM)TegaCayCard Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 01:35 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 01:09 AM)7thHeaven Wrote:  If Louisville runs the table this year, Do you think Louisville has a chance to play for a National Championship?

Yes, but only if there are no other undefeated teams (or at least, not more than one other - and that one MUST be SEC)

Getting ahead of ourselves, Syracuse beat the snot out of us and UConn beat us at home. Still lots of work and some luck to run the table.

I could see Louisville losing to SU. Afterall, that game was at the Dome, and Syracuse was playing as well as any team in the BE the last half of the season. But that loss to Uconn is simply inexplicable. Uconn was just a bad, bad team. Ill never understand how The Ville lost that game to Uconn and then proceed to blow Florida off the field.

Secret weapon We launched to fool the selection commitee to give the Big Boys a "Bunny Game"

(07-28-2013 10:13 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  I could see Louisville losing to SU. Afterall, that game was at the Dome, and Syracuse was playing as well as any team in the BE the last half of the season. But that loss to Uconn is simply inexplicable. Uconn was just a bad, bad team. Ill never understand how The Ville lost that game to Uconn and then proceed to blow Florida off the field.

I think some of this had to do with this being around the time Tennessee started courting Strong; for the first time Charlie had a legit SEC head-coaching possibilty, and this was from one of the better SEC jobs.

I think maybe Coach Strong lost a little focus in coaching the team....just my theory.

As far as the Florida game, I think not only did Strong get his focus back, but we also simply got heathly again in the month before the game; we were pretty banged up at season's end.

(07-28-2013 08:08 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 05:55 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 10:07 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 09:18 AM)Wolfman Wrote:  Louisville is in a tough spot. A single loss will be nearly impossible to overcome. It might even keep them out of a BCS bowl.

Nah, as long as they win the AAC, they'll go to a BCS bowl. This is the last year the former BE has an auto-bid into the BCS.

If Louisville goes undefeated and there are not 2 or more P5 undefeateds and no big name SEC or B1G school has only 1 loss, then Louisville can make the National Championship game.

On another note, If Louisville does win the AAC and misses out on the Championship game, there's a pretty good chance they could end up in the Orange bowl against an ACC school. I don't think the SEC will give them another bid into the Sugar. Mainly because they don't like repeat teams in bowls but also because they lost.

Chris, this year the Orange Bowl picks 1st, then the Sugar, then the Fiesta. There is ZERO change the Orange picks Louisville (or any AAC champ). If Notre Dame is available it will be ACC vs. Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl - otherwise, it will be best available at-large (probably Big Ten or Big 12, assuming SEC puts a team into the BCS Title game).

In this scenario Louisville will go to the Fiesta Bowl to play the Big 12 champ. This is a LOCK.

Are you sure about that? I thought the Orange Bowl picked last the last 2 years of the BCS agreement.

100% sure - LINK to BCS website.

See
Team-Selection Procedures
4.

Quote:January 2014 games - Orange, Sugar, Fiesta

(07-28-2013 10:13 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 06:08 AM)TegaCayCard Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 01:35 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 01:09 AM)7thHeaven Wrote:  If Louisville runs the table this year, Do you think Louisville has a chance to play for a National Championship?

Yes, but only if there are no other undefeated teams (or at least, not more than one other - and that one MUST be SEC)

Getting ahead of ourselves, Syracuse beat the snot out of us and UConn beat us at home. Still lots of work and some luck to run the table.

I could see Louisville losing to SU. Afterall, that game was at the Dome, and Syracuse was playing as well as any team in the BE the last half of the season. But that loss to Uconn is simply inexplicable. Uconn was just a bad, bad team. Ill never understand how The Ville lost that game to Uconn and then proceed to blow Florida off the field.

First of all, UCONN's defense was legit last year.

Plus, Teddy got knocked out of the game via a horse collar tackle in the backfield. We really didn't have a good QB back up, so the rest is history.

(07-28-2013 05:29 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 02:17 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  The chances are very low. In '09 Cincinnati played and beat 4 ranked teams, 3 of those games on the road, on their way to a 12-0 regular season and couldn't get higher than #4 in the rankings. Louisville's schedule will be far weaker than that.

UC then lost their coach to ND and got trounced in the Sugar Bowl by a UF team that was clearly the 2nd best team in the country that year and only a hair's length away from being #1. However, everyone made a big deal about the game as exposing UC for being "overrated." That still annoys me. Any team in the country, but one would lost to UF, and almost all of them would have been bad losses, even with a coach. UF was that good. In fact, I'm not sure that there was a team in the country that could have beaten UF without their coach. I'm not even sure that there was a team that could have kept the game close without a coach. UC deserved a LOT more respect than they got.

Thanks for pointing out something many people often overlook. That Urban Meyer led UF squad was the defending national champ and was ranked #1 the entire year up until their loss to Alabama in the SEC CCG. That squad was stacked that year with NFL bodies and very good CFB players:

Tebow
Aaron Hernandez
Maurkice Pouncey
Mike Pouncey
Carlos Dunlap
Joe Haden
Janoris Jenkins
Brandon Spikes
Riley Cooper
Jeff Demps
Chris Rainey
Will Hill
Major Wright
Ahmad Black

If I were a betting man, I would have put a good deal of money on UF beating Alabama in a rematch if they played for the national championship.

(07-29-2013 08:27 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 05:29 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 02:17 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  The chances are very low. In '09 Cincinnati played and beat 4 ranked teams, 3 of those games on the road, on their way to a 12-0 regular season and couldn't get higher than #4 in the rankings. Louisville's schedule will be far weaker than that.

UC then lost their coach to ND and got trounced in the Sugar Bowl by a UF team that was clearly the 2nd best team in the country that year and only a hair's length away from being #1. However, everyone made a big deal about the game as exposing UC for being "overrated." That still annoys me. Any team in the country, but one would lost to UF, and almost all of them would have been bad losses, even with a coach. UF was that good. In fact, I'm not sure that there was a team in the country that could have beaten UF without their coach. I'm not even sure that there was a team that could have kept the game close without a coach. UC deserved a LOT more respect than they got.

Thanks for pointing out something many people often overlook. That Urban Meyer led UF squad was the defending national champ and was ranked #1 the entire year up until their loss to Alabama in the SEC CCG. That squad was stacked that year with NFL bodies and very good CFB players:

Tebow
Aaron Hernandez
Maurkice Pouncey
Mike Pouncey
Carlos Dunlap
Joe Haden
Janoris Jenkins
Brandon Spikes
Riley Cooper
Jeff Demps
Chris Rainey
Will Hill
Major Wright
Ahmad Black

If I were a betting man, I would have put a good deal of money on UF beating Alabama in a rematch if they played for the national championship.

You and me both. I'm not even sure that it would have been close because UF would have been motivated. Actually, that's another thing that UC had to deal with. They were playing a PO'd Gator squad. UC got the short end of a stick when it came to 1. ND needing a new coach, and 2. BCS bowl selection.

How did UL beat UF? The bounces and luck broke their way early. Set the tone for the game. Play 9 more times and UF may have won 6 or 7.

(07-29-2013 01:08 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  How did UL beat UF? The bounces and luck broke their way early. Set the tone for the game. Play 9 more times and UF may have won 6 or 7.

Or not. Strong is an excellent coach. He gets a lot of performance from kids that don't get the spotlight shown on them. If he had UF's or FSU's talent he would likely rule the ACC. Just an opinion. But he resurected a Kragthorped Louisville team we see what he is doing now.

Kragthorped is not as severe as GROB'd but well on its way.

(07-28-2013 08:15 AM)HtownOrange Wrote:  The following is opinion only:

The lack in SOS may hurt and a one loss SEC team may get in ahead of an unbeaten Louisville. This is prejudicial but is based on perception. A lone loss Alabama or LSU or Florida will be perceived as stronger than an undefeated Louisville.

Well I doubt a one loss Florida team would be perceived as stronger. Seriously though, Louisville does have a few things in their favor:

• 1) All polls, human and Computer, like an undefeated team. That will go a long way.
  
  2) In regards to the computer polls, the SOS is better than it looks on paper. There are no marquee games, unless Cincinnati comes thru, but the only really bad game is an SEC game. Ohio is in the MAC, but they were ranked for a chunk of the year last year, and if they are an or 9 win team, it helps the computer ranking. Kentucky will suck, but plaing 8 SEC teams will improve the computer ranking enough. In the past the Big East teams always finished right in the middle, which kept the computer stats from bottoming out (note CIncy had the number 2 computer ranking in 2009, over Florida). I'm not sure how the new additions change that, but traditionally the BE never looked as bad on computer as it did on paper
  
  3) In the human polls, one big help, one thing Cincy did not have, is starting in the top 10. Cincy started out of the polls, and like Auburn before them, were the odd man out when there were multiple undefeated teams. Something in the human polls that help Louisville is the Sugar Bowl last year, and the multiple ESPN articles about Louisville trying to schedule both Alabama AND Texas A&M OOC this year in "neutral" site games way away from Louisville (Alabama in Atlanta, A&M in Houston). It will be hard to hold someone's schedule against them when two of the likely teams they may be competing against for a spot tried to play them.
  
  4) Big East teams have had 4 chances at a title game where they controlled their own destiny, Louisville in 2006, Rutgers in 2006, West Virginia in 2007, South Florida in 2008. One second on the clock in the Big XII Championship game in 2009 nearly put Cincy up to bat against TCU for the title shot. The AAC is not the Big East, but it could happen.
  
  5) Cincinnati. Louisville plays Cincinnati the last week of the year on a Thursday night. If Cincy manages to also be undefeated or with only one loss, which is very feasible, they could also be a top 10 team, maybe 15 if one loss, and would be a marquee game that people would tune into. A great game there would go a long way,
  
  6) Box office. If Texas A&M, Alabama, or Ohio State are the number one team, voters simply wanting to see Teddy Bridgewater vs. Johnny Manziel, Braxton Miller, or Alabama's defense may get them in.

No guarantee, but assuming there are not two other undefeated teams, if Louisville is undefeated, if the offense is potent, and they are impressive through the schedule, it could very well happen. If they are undefeated, and there are not two other undefeated teams, I would put the odds at better than 50/50 they get an appearance. Too many things in the favor of the Cards for it not to happen under those circumstances.

(07-28-2013 02:17 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  The chances are very low. In '09 Cincinnati played and beat 4 ranked teams, 3 of those games on the road, on their way to a 12-0 regular season and couldn't get higher than #4 in the rankings. Louisville's schedule will be far weaker than that.

Cincy also started unranked, which pretty much puts you at the back of the pack of the undefeated. That was why they were number 4, behind even TCU. Auburn ran into the same issue.

(07-28-2013 05:55 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Chris, this year the Orange Bowl picks 1st, then the Sugar, then the Fiesta. There is ZERO change the Orange picks Louisville (or any AAC champ). If Notre Dame is available it will be ACC vs. Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl - otherwise, it will be best available at-large (probably Big Ten or Big 12, assuming SEC puts a team into the BCS Title game).

In this scenario Louisville will go to the Fiesta Bowl to play the Big 12 champ. This is a LOCK.

I'd actually bet on going back to the Sugar Bowl in that scenario, presuming Louisville was not a "default" champion (i.e. 8-4 but wins the conference, not a good year). History shows us the past few years there is generally a BCS crasher, and if that happens, they are always the last ones picked. However in the scenario of Louisville being a 0 or 1 loss team and not in the title game, the chain reaction likely leads to Louisville in the Sugar Bowl unless a PAC 12 team is in the championship game. Generally the top SEC team is picked to replace the SEC team in the MNC game, and if the Rose Bowl loses a team they will pick ND or a team from the PAC 12 or Big Ten, whomever they lost. If a Big Ten team has not been picked they are usually the next in line so long as one is eligible, which pits Louisville up against the second Big XII, PAC 12, or ACC team. Louisville has actually played three games in New Orleans in the past 15 months, a Final Four, a Sugar Bowl, and a women's Final Four, each with large turnouts. If Louisville is up for grabs, they will get a very hard look for a repeat visit, especially since most fans who went are clamoring to go back (if can't go to a title game), and will likely win out, unless the Big XII teams available (to p12 but not conference champ, and not runner up if Big XII team is conference champ) is Texas or Oklahoma.

(07-29-2013 01:08 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  How did UL beat UF? The bounces and luck broke their way early. Set the tone for the game. Play 9 more times and UF may have won 6 or 7.

Not really. I was at that game. The only reason it was close was because of the bounces that broke Florida's way. Between the late KO return, the two missed field goals, both that easily should have been touchdowns to begin with, Florida was very lucky not lose that game by 31 points. It wasn't about luck in that game, they could not move the ball, and they could not stop the Louisville offense. If they played ten times, Florida probably loses 6 or 7 of them. Florida probably has more overall talent, but it was simply a bad matchup. The coaches knew exactly how to attack Florida - two tight end set, big tight ends over the middle, and timed routes, and they could not cover it. It was exactly the blueprint Alabama used to beat them. They should know: one of Alabama's offensive coaches used to work at Louisville for Strong and gave them some tips.

(07-29-2013 03:14 PM)HtownOrange Wrote:  

(07-29-2013 01:08 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  How did UL beat UF? The bounces and luck broke their way early. Set the tone for the game. Play 9 more times and UF may have won 6 or 7.

Or not. Strong is an excellent coach. He gets a lot of performance from kids that don't get the spotlight shown on them. If he had UF's or FSU's talent he would likely rule the ACC. Just an opinion. But he resurected a Kragthorped Louisville team we see what he is doing now.

Kragthorped is not as severe as GROB'd but well on its way.

That's your opinion and your're free to believe that. Strong is a good coach and has done a good job turning UL around. But the Big East wasn't good at football and UL absolutely got lucky against UF. It's just life. UL won and I find moderate joy in that but I don't let it obscure the fact that UF was almost assuredly the better team that year.

(07-29-2013 03:39 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 05:55 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Chris, this year the Orange Bowl picks 1st, then the Sugar, then the Fiesta. There is ZERO change the Orange picks Louisville (or any AAC champ). If Notre Dame is available it will be ACC vs. Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl - otherwise, it will be best available at-large (probably Big Ten or Big 12, assuming SEC puts a team into the BCS Title game).

In this scenario Louisville will go to the Fiesta Bowl to play the Big 12 champ. This is a LOCK.

I'd actually bet on going back to the Sugar Bowl in that scenario, presuming Louisville was not a "default" champion (i.e. 8-4 but wins the conference, not a good year). History shows us the past few years there is generally a BCS crasher, and if that happens, they are always the last ones picked.

I stand corrected. You are right - if there is a "BCS crasher", that team goes to the Fiesta which bumps U of L to the Sugar. And depending on the field, the Sugar might select U of L anyway.

(07-29-2013 03:39 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(07-29-2013 01:08 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  How did UL beat UF? The bounces and luck broke their way early. Set the tone for the game. Play 9 more times and UF may have won 6 or 7.

Not really. I was at that game. The only reason it was close was because of the bounces that broke Florida's way. Between the late KO return, the two missed field goals, both that easily should have been touchdowns to begin with, Florida was very lucky not lose that game by 31 points. It wasn't about luck in that game, they could not move the ball, and they could not stop the Louisville offense. If they played ten times, Florida probably loses 6 or 7 of them. Florida probably has more overall talent, but it was simply a bad matchup. The coaches knew exactly how to attack Florida - two tight end set, big tight ends over the middle, and timed routes, and they could not cover it. It was exactly the blueprint Alabama used to beat them. They should know: one of Alabama's offensive coaches used to work at Louisville for Strong and gave them some tips.

I wasn't at the game, but I know what I saw. The team that was struggling to keep it close was clearly Florida. It was no fluke that U of L won.

When We are healthy, it can be a very long day for whom We are playing. We also had several great players whom sat out many games last year that are now healed to go along with a really good recruiting class. Ought to be a fun season.

Agree, but all are just talking about our offense and that is OK by me. They will soon find out that our offense will be a show stopper for most teams. This year's defense will be the best defense that CCS has field at Louisville and will be as good as best defenses were at Florida. We will own the AAC.

(07-30-2013 10:52 AM)Wilkie01 Wrote:  This year's defense will be the best defense that CCS has field at Louisville and will be as good as best defenses were at Florida. We will own the AAC.

Let's not get carried away there Wilkie

im expecting undefeated season and a chance to play for NC...

(07-28-2013 05:29 PM)nzmorange Wrote:  

(07-28-2013 02:17 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  The chances are very low. In '09 Cincinnati played and beat 4 ranked teams, 3 of those games on the road, on their way to a 12-0 regular season and couldn't get higher than #4 in the rankings. Louisville's schedule will be far weaker than that.

UC then lost their coach to ND and got trounced in the Sugar Bowl by a UF team that was clearly the 2nd best team in the country that year and only a hair's length away from being #1. However, everyone made a big deal about the game as exposing UC for being "overrated." That still annoys me. Any team in the country, but one would have lost to UF, and almost all of them would have been bad losses, even with a coach. UF was that good. In fact, I'm not sure that there was a team in the country that could have beaten UF without their coach. I'm not even sure that there was a team that could have kept the game close without a coach. UC deserved a LOT more respect than they got.

Oh please. Cincinnati started the season unranked. Their best OOC game was against a team that finished 8-5. They won three Big East games by a field goal or less. The fact that they went into the Sugar Bowl at #3 was an absolute travesty. They didn't belong in the top 10, and certainly didn't deserve to represent the Big East in a BCS game.

Yes that Florida team was excellent but that doesn't excuse Cincinnati from being down 30-3 at halftime. They could've at least made it look respectable. They were hopelessly overrated and it showed.

^^ Obsess much?