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Hokie Mark · 08-12-2013 04:32 AM

Reality check - this IS possible:

North Pod: BC, 'Cuse, Pitt, UConn (or Temple)
Mid-Atlantic: VA, VT, UL, Cincinnati
Central Pod: UNC, NC St, Wake, Duke
South Pod: Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami

scheduling agreements with football independents: Notre Dame, Texas

Q: would we want this?

XLance · 08-12-2013 07:33 AM

(08-12-2013 04:32 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Reality check - this IS possible:

North Pod: BC, 'Cuse, Pitt, UConn (or Temple)
Mid-Atlantic: VA, VT, UL, Cincinnati
Central Pod: UNC, NC St, Wake, Duke
South Pod: Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami

scheduling agreements with football independents: Notre Dame, Texas

Q: would we want this?

No.

**CardinalJim** · 08-12-2013 07:39 AM

I don't believe the threat of The Big 10 taking UConn is enough to push The ACC into inviting them. If The ACC was worried about that they would have taken UConn over Louisville when they had the chance. It was obvious at that time that The Big 10 was in expansion mode as Big 10 expansion created the opening in The ACC.

If The Big 10 wants UConn I am sure they can do it. The only thing The ACC could do or should do is congratulate UConn and move on.
CJ

Lou_C · 08-12-2013 09:25 AM

(08-10-2013 09:28 AM)TerryD Wrote:
(08-09-2013 08:32 AM)Lou_C Wrote:
(08-08-2013 09:31 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:
(08-08-2013 08:09 PM)Wolfman Wrote: If you do go to pods you have to have an even number in each pod.

why?

In my fantasy land, the ACC 20 ends up looking like this:

Notre Dame
BC
Pitt
Syracuse
Louisville

UVA
VT
UNC
NC St
Duke

Wake Forest
FSU
GT
Clemson
Miami

Texas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Kansas

Or, if Kansas is a no go, then Louisville to that pod, and WVU in the northeast pod.

8-game schedule, you play your four in pod, and have four games to rotate through the rest. You cycle through out-of-pod teams in less than four years, or about seven years if you keep the home/home. So in a 20 team conference, you would see out of division teams twice as much as you do in this cluster-f of a 14-team conference.

Not saying that's going to happen or is likely, but from a long term view, that's the lineup the ACC should be positioning itself for.

I don't think the Big 12 is going to break up, but if Texas starts getting itchy, the ACC+Notre Dame+ESPN should be ready to at least make an effort.

And I know Notre Dame wants to hold out for independence as long as it can, and I get it, but Texas/OU going to the B1G let's say is a DRAMATIC shift in the landscape, and who knows what happens from there. The Irish would at least have to think about helping make this deal to be able to totally control their destiny forevever, instead of someday being forced into the B1G or a decimated or second rate ACC.

We're talking about three freaking games at that point for Notre Dame, versus tremendous uncertainty in the future.

They have to at least consider it.

Well, I am just a 50 year ND fan. But here is my opinion on that:

People really just don't get it, despite all that ND football has done since 1991 (sign NBC deal, join the Big East except for football, join the ACC except for football, etc..) to remain outside of any conference.

It is not about the most money, or TV contracts, or just "three freaking games" or the makeup of any conference its other sports are in, or "uncertainty".

It is about the identity and branding of the school, not just the athletic program or the football team. That is the driving motivation for ND regarding its football program and conference realignment.

ND does not want to have its football team, the main advertising/marketing/branding arm of the university, as a member of a football conference, ever. Period.

It wants that advertising arm, that marketing entity, to remain independent so that it can proclaim itself as a national university.

It wants to be able to have the flexibility to play all over the country. It wants to have a unique identity, it wants to be able to say it is "different".

It wants to say that for its entire 125+ years of existence, that it has been an national independent program (standing alone, never in a collective, regional grouping).

Three or four OOC games, while being tied to a regional conference (even one from Boston to Miami) doesn't do that, in ND's opinion.

It is only if/when ND cannot recruit blue chip football players because it is shut out of any chance (even a small chance) of competing for a national title, that it will consider placing its football program in any conference.

Absent a "conference champions only" playoff setup, ND football will try very hard to and will likely remain outside of any conference affiliation.

ND will not likely ever join the Big Ten, no matter what. It would prefer a "decimated and second rate ACC" in your Armageddon scenario.

In that event, its football team would still be independent and that decimated ACC would still be "good enough" for basketball, baseball and Olympic sports.

Big Ten people thought (were very confident, even) that ND would jump to their conference in 2010 when it was shown that ND could make much more TV money there with the BTN. They thought that ND was about "the most money".

To their great surprise, ND had no interest in making the most TV money. It cut a deal with the ACC for less money to stay out of the clutches of the Big Ten and to avoid joining any conference for football.

Thanks Terry. Of almost any message board jockeys, I definitely get that. I hate it when people say "When ND joins the ACC for football" or "this will all be fixed when Notre Dame joins" or even more, when they talk about what the ACC should do to get ND to join.

I think everything the ACC does to try to improve itself should be based on the premise that ND is never joining for football.

I 100% get where ND is coming from. And they should do exactly what they are trying to do.

I'm only saying that there are circumstances beyond the ACC's and even ND's control that can effect that. It has already happened. Notre Dame has already decided that one decimated conference was not good enough for them, so much so that they signed over an unprecedented and heretofore unthinkable amount of their schedule over to the ACC.

Notre Dame and the ACC's interests are actually alligned right now...if the ACC as is survives and thrives, ND never has to give up independence. And that's fine.

But the thing is...as you say, if the day comes when ND can't access the playoffs or compete at a high level, then and only then will they join a conference.

If, and it's a big if obviously, the ACC isn't around any more, or is totally decimated Big East style, are they ok with that conference being the Big 10?

Everyone at ND has acknowledged that the day may come. The plan is obviously, if that day ever comes, they will consumate with the ACC and be set. That's exactly what the current deal did...stabilized the ACC so that endgame "worst case scenario" is still not the WORST case scenario.

Would they be proactive to try to broker a premise like this if the Big 10 Texas thing looked like it had legs? Probably not, I agree. They would probably wait until the ACC looked threatened, which wouldn't necessarilly be the case if Texas and OU went to the Big 10. The ACC might be fine.

The question is...how confident are the decision makers at ND that independence will be viable in 20 years? If they are strongly confident, then the play is certainly to do nothing. But what if they are very unsure they will be independent in 20 years?

In that case, the premise I describe is far more attractive than any conference they could ever hope to be in otherwise. It keeps them more national than any other conference could. It's a real stick in the eye to the Big 10. I think it would be a situation they would at least have to noodle around with behind closed doors.

Or maybe they just say screw it, let's ride independence until it is pried from our cold dead hands, because there will always be the Big 10. Which is fine as well.

Anyway, that's why it's my fantasy scenario, but I was at least trying put some reasoning behind it, and not imply that ND would just join in any conference out of the goodness of their heart or just because.

I personally don't think we see any movement for the next ten years or so.

**army56mike** · 08-12-2013 12:13 PM

Yeah, I know I'm jumping in late to this game. But if the BIG were expanding to ask UConn in, I'd let'em. If the ACC were expanding to 16 teams I'd take Cincinnati and West Virginia. That's with the assumption that ND and other major conference schools wouldn't join... no offense WVU.

adcorbett · 08-12-2013 03:57 PM

I want to clarify to anyone reading my responses. I am strictly speaking to whether each team would make a good fit for the ACC and could make money. Not if they are the **best** team to expand with today.

(08-08-2013 03:44 PM)Lou_C Wrote: I guess it comes down to this, is there any real money to be made or at stake by "beating" the Big 10 in the Northeast? Or is Northeast college football just fools gold?

In essence, there is money that "could" be made, because basketball has a very real, very tangible value when you look into a conference network. Not only does basketball represent a better chance to get a marquee game that will be watched outside of the fanbase of each school - let's be honest, no one is watching Florida State vs. Savannah St on a Satruday afternoon on the ACC Network when it is competing against 6 other live games EXCEPT Florida State fans. North Carolina vs. Wake Forest, a game that could easily fall to Tier 3 in a given year, will draw fans away from the SEC or Big Ten game on ESPN - they are also the games that are on several days a week that really help in distribution. UConn's TV deal with SNY shows they have some appeal in NYC, when combined Syracuse, Duke, and Notre Dame, who have local appeal, do make an ACC Network more attractive (especially if they sublicense St. Johns home games as well).

(08-08-2013 04:38 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote: I think IF the ACC expands further, I agree with the pod schedule, but as for TV, I think I'd rather NOT renegotiate... instead, I'd use the leverage the way the SEC did to create a true ACC Network. I think that would be the best way to monetize the basketball assets (which UConn & Cincinnati also bring)

(08-09-2013 01:43 PM)Kaplony Wrote:
(08-09-2013 12:56 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote: Well, this is attractive to for basketball:

Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Louisville, UConn

But it sucks for football, and since football is 80% of our revenue that should trump basketball for any conference other than the ACC. However, as we have seen in the past the ACC (as a conference and individual teams) is not only capable of, is quite comfortable throwing football under the bus to help hoops.

Just so you know, when Swofford said that, he was 100% exaggerating his ass off. Granted he did it for good reason (as a defense against attacks against the ACC football brand). But I know for a fact when the ACC renegotiated the contract back in 2009, the one that jumped the per team payout to $13 million (prior to the renegotiations) from around $6.5 million per team, the primary reason for the significant increase was the ESPN acquisition of the ACC basketball first tier basketball rights that previously belonged to Raycom, and that basketball was actually estimated at being close to 50% of the value of that initial contract, as the football platform had underperformed (remember this was back when the ACC championship game was still in Florida). The sheer number of games and the audience drawn, along with the demos, make it a huge money maker for ESPN. Even if you assume every increase after that from renegotiation, from the addition of Syracuse and Pitt, to the addition of ND Olympic sports, to the swap of Maryland for Louisville was a 100% football increase (not even plausible) that STILL puts basketball at 30% of the value of the revenue.

Realistically, after the Syracuse and Pitt additions, ACC basketball was probably worth more than 50% of the total package. Which make sense when you consider that in total viewer counts, the split is Pretty close to 52/48 basketball. Combine with football games costing 5-10 times as much to produce and that basketball helps drive the ratings of their in-house, highly profitable shows, and that in ACC markets basketball games have a higher syndication value throughout the region, and you can see where it comes from. That is until the latest increase with the ND addition - using the numbers from last year, 2.5 ND road games (19.2 million) is equal to 24% of TOTAL ACC football viewership (79.8 million) from last year - when added to the Louisville swap netted an additional $4 million per team (hence the 23.5% increase in payments). And even now it's probably still worth close between $9 - $10 million per year per team of the contract.

Below is a list of each teams' ratings per game for national TV regular season games

Code:

Current Teams                                            

Football___________________________    Basketball____________________            Total        

Team    G    Avg View    Total View    Team    Gm    Avg View    Total View    Team    Gm    Avg View    Total Viewer

BoCo    4    2,715,750    10,863,000    BoCo    7    251,686    1,761,799    BoCo    11    1,147,709    12,624,799

Clem    9    2,911,222    26,201,000    Clem    13    338,808    4,404,498    Clem    22    1,391,159    30,605,498

Duke    1    505,000    505,000    Duke    24    1,296,880    31,125,119    Duke    25    1,265,205    31,630,119

FLSt    8    3,309,000    26,472,000    FLSt    14    513,858    7,194,013    FLSt    22    1,530,273    33,666,013

GaTc    3    2,566,667    7,700,000    GaTc    8    440,450    3,523,598    GaTc    11    1,020,327    11,223,598

Mary    0    0    0    Mary    11    974,328    10,717,612    Mary    11    974,328    10,717,612

Miam    4    3,475,000    13,900,000    Miam    14    765,544    10,717,612    Miam    18    1,367,645    24,617,612

NC St    2    3,522,500    7,045,000    NC St    20    668,016    13,360,311    NC St    22    927,514    20,405,311

UNCa    2    1,950,000    3,900,000    UNCa    26    1,089,831    28,335,604    UNCa    28    1,151,272    32,235,604

Virg    2    2,000,000    4,000,000    Virg    11    453,797    4,991,764    Virg    13    691,674    8,991,764

Vtch    4    2,225,000    8,900,000    Vtch    8    403,746    3,229,965    Vtch    12    1,010,830    12,129,965

Wake    2    1,950,000    3,900,000    Wake    6    220,225    1,321,349    Wake    8    652,669    5,221,349

Totl    41    2,765,512    113,386,000    Totl    162    744958    120,683,245    Totl    203    1,153,050    234,069,245

Future Additions                                            

Team    G    Avg View    Total View    Team    Gm    Avg View    Total View    Team    Gm    Avg View    Total Viewer

Lville    6    2,727,667    16,366,000    Lville    16    1,055,244    16,883,909    Lville    22    1,511,360    33,249,909

ND Rd    5    7680000    38,400,000    ND Rd    17    803,173    13,653,944    ND Rd    22    1,839,748    44,153,944

Pitt    6    1,915,667    11,494,000    Pitt    15    567,691    8,515,363    Pitt    21    952,827    20,009,363

Cuse    4    1,909,000    7,636,000    Cuse    18    1,044,029    18,792,525    Cuse    22    1,201,297    26,428,525

Total    21    3,518,857    73,896,000    Total    66    876,451    57,845,740    Total    87    1,423,468    123,841,740

Future Potential Additions                                            

Team    G    Avg View    Total View    Team    Gm    Avg View    Total View    Team    Gm    Avg View    Total Viewer

Cinc    4    1,850,000    7,400,000    Cinc    14    629,214    8,808,996    Cinc    18    900,500    16,208,996

Conn    3    1,177,000     3,531,000    Conn    14    671,162    9,396,262     Conn    17    760,427    12,927,262

ND Hm    7    4,357,143    30,500,000    ND Hm    0    0    0    ND Hm    7    1,839,748    44,153,944

Note that the "totals" above are not really accurate because a conference game will count for BOTH teams on that list. The true totals for each sport are as follows:

ACC (current members only)
Sport G___Avg Viewers_Total Viewers
Fball_ 27__2,953,926___ 79,756,000
BBall_ 109___710,523____77,447,000
BBTny_11___747,818____8,226,000

HRFlossY · 08-13-2013 12:50 PM

NO ONE gets an invite until Notre Dame joins soooooooooooo........... 07-coffee3

..and after that I could care less which team it is whether cincy or uconn or someone else!
FlossY out.... 03-zzz

adcorbett · 08-13-2013 02:34 PM

Flossy! When'd you get here?

TexanMark · 08-13-2013 10:27 PM

(08-13-2013 02:34 PM)adcorbett Wrote: Flossy! When'd you get here?

Corbett.....nice insert on TV numbers. Can you check UConn and Cincy's BB numbers again? They are both the same.

adcorbett · 08-14-2013 04:09 PM

Thanks. I corrected the numbers above. The final totals were correct, I just typed the wrong numbers in for UConn under basketball.

The football numbers are straight from Neilsen. They are real easy to break out. The basketball numbers I used are estiamtes derived from average ratings. I did from a chart that lists the ratings for each team. I then used a set number to represent the ratings to create a quick chart. I do actually have the ratings for every game, but I have not separated it out per team yet. This was just easier to do this for quick math, and while not exact, close enough for the point. The real numbers look like this:

Team G Avg View Total Viewer
Cincy 13 602,615 7,834,000
UConn 14 688,857 9,644,000

I have no idea where the 14th Cincinnati game comes from

nzmorange · 08-14-2013 08:43 PM

(08-08-2013 03:44 PM)Lou_C Wrote: Should the ACC consider a preemptive UConn/Cincinnati add? IF ESPN agreed to keep the $20M/team whole?

Naturally, being an FSU guy, you can assume that I'm against anything that weakens football...HOWEVER, going to 4 pod scheduling might actually IMPROVE the ACC schedule, even with two weaker teams. You could get through the non-divisional schedule much more quickly, and solve this issue of FSU/UNC, Miami/Clemson, Syracuse/VT playing every 14 years or whatever.

I guess it comes down to this, is there any real money to be made or at stake by "beating" the Big 10 in the Northeast? Or is Northeast college football just fools gold?

I tend to think it is not really worth it...but with the committment the ACC has there with BC, Pitt, SU, you probably don't want to cede the area to the B1G if you can win it. The investment has been made.

And the Big 10 certainly would seem to think it's worth it.

I mean, my gut feeling is no, and it is a total non-starter if ESPN isn't absolutely on board with maintaining the status quo payment. But should it be under consideration?

If the B1G invites UCONN, we should celebrate and invite Penn State.

***georgia_tech_swagger*** · 08-15-2013 10:56 AM

Absolutely zero desire for UCONN under any circumstance.

NYCTUFan · 08-16-2013 03:44 PM

(08-12-2013 04:32 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Reality check - this IS possible:

North Pod: BC, 'Cuse, Pitt, UConn (or Temple)
Mid-Atlantic: VA, VT, UL, Cincinnati
Central Pod: UNC, NC St, Wake, Duke
South Pod: Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami

scheduling agreements with football independents: Notre Dame, Texas

Q: would we want this?

I like reading along the ACC threads because I’m a fan, but i mostly just follow along. I’m NOT pimping, this post just goes along with why the ACC may find Temple desirable. (I emphasize MAY).

If the ACC network is something on the front burner for the conference would they find value in the Philadelphia market? It fills the east coast gap left by Maryland and with 2.9 million households and a good relationship with Comcast who's HQ is in Philly and has over 18 million subscribers is it something to consider?

It’s just a thought.

Hokie Mark · 08-16-2013 03:49 PM

(08-16-2013 03:44 PM)NYCTUFan Wrote:
(08-12-2013 04:32 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Reality check - this IS possible:

North Pod: BC, 'Cuse, Pitt, UConn (or Temple)
Mid-Atlantic: VA, VT, UL, Cincinnati
Central Pod: UNC, NC St, Wake, Duke
South Pod: Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami

scheduling agreements with football independents: Notre Dame, Texas

Q: would we want this?

I like reading along the ACC threads because I’m a fan, but i mostly just follow along. I’m NOT pimping, this post just goes along with why the ACC may find Temple desirable. (I emphasize MAY).

If the ACC network is something on the front burner for the conference would they find value in the Philadelphia market? It fills the east coast gap left by Maryland and with 2.9 million households and a good relationship with Comcast who's HQ is in Philly and has over 18 million subscribers is it something to consider?

It’s just a thought.

ONLY if Bill Cosby agrees to do play-by-play for the network. 05-stirthepot

NYCTUFan · 08-16-2013 04:00 PM

(08-16-2013 03:49 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:
(08-16-2013 03:44 PM)NYCTUFan Wrote:
(08-12-2013 04:32 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Reality check - this IS possible:

North Pod: BC, 'Cuse, Pitt, UConn (or Temple)
Mid-Atlantic: VA, VT, UL, Cincinnati
Central Pod: UNC, NC St, Wake, Duke
South Pod: Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami

scheduling agreements with football independents: Notre Dame, Texas

Q: would we want this?

I like reading along the ACC threads because I’m a fan, but i mostly just follow along. I’m NOT pimping, this post just goes along with why the ACC may find Temple desirable. (I emphasize MAY).

If the ACC network is something on the front burner for the conference would they find value in the Philadelphia market? It fills the east coast gap left by Maryland and with 2.9 million households and a good relationship with Comcast who's HQ is in Philly and has over 18 million subscribers is it something to consider?

It’s just a thought.

ONLY if Bill Cosby agrees to do play-by-play for the network.

I’m sorry Mark, that’s something I can’t guarantee. However, something like this is definitely a possibility.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLu2_IDjSNg

I still laugh, it never gets old to me, and I’m easily amused.

UofLgrad07 · 08-16-2013 04:56 PM

(08-16-2013 04:00 PM)NYCTUFan Wrote: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLu2_IDjSNg

I still laugh, it never gets old to me, and I’m easily amused.

....what did I just watch

CrazyPaco · 08-16-2013 06:02 PM

(08-16-2013 03:44 PM)NYCTUFan Wrote:
(08-12-2013 04:32 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: Reality check - this IS possible:

North Pod: BC, 'Cuse, Pitt, UConn (or Temple)
Mid-Atlantic: VA, VT, UL, Cincinnati
Central Pod: UNC, NC St, Wake, Duke
South Pod: Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami

scheduling agreements with football independents: Notre Dame, Texas

Q: would we want this?

I like reading along the ACC threads because I’m a fan, but i mostly just follow along. I’m NOT pimping, this post just goes along with why the ACC may find Temple desirable. (I emphasize MAY).

If the ACC network is something on the front burner for the conference would they find value in the Philadelphia market? It fills the east coast gap left by Maryland and with 2.9 million households and a good relationship with Comcast who's HQ is in Philly and has over 18 million subscribers is it something to consider?

It’s just a thought.

If the ACC ever does add another school, it will be years down the road. By then, who knows how Temple will look compared to UConn. To be honest, I'm not sure Temple doesn't have more upside now sitting on the nexus of Eastern PA, NJ, and Virginia recruiting territory. Temple has a lot of issues, but so does UConn football, so who knows how they'll compare 10 years or more from now.

~~Kaplony~~ · 08-16-2013 07:40 PM

If the ACC is in a position where they have to invite Temple and/or UConn I pray to God it is because Clemson has moved on to greener pastures as either is a death sentence for big time football.

JHG722 · 08-17-2013 02:00 AM

(08-16-2013 07:40 PM)Kaplony Wrote: If the ACC is in a position where they have to invite Temple and/or UConn I pray to God it is because Clemson has moved on to greener pastures as either is a death sentence for big time football.

What's it like to root for a school you couldn't get into?

**CardinalJim** · 08-17-2013 05:22 AM

A week before UofL was invited to The ACC, I posted on the Realignment Board that there was "zero chance - none" that Louisville would get an ACC invite. Who am I to say Temple doesn't have a shot at joining The ACC? As unpredictable as this stuff has been who can make any solid prediction?
CJ

Threaded Mode \| Linear Mode IF and it is a big IF, the ACC got word that the B1G was considering UCONN...
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