(11-25-2013 11:08 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 12:11 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 12:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think 2 slots are a lock unless something bizarre happens
1- Alabama/Auburn/Missouri
2- Florida St

I think 3rd slot would go to either Ohio St or Michigan St. I think MSU passes Clemson and Baylor easily.
I think 4th slot would go to Oklahoma St if they beat Oklahoma. If Oklahoma beats OSU- I think it's between Clemson and Alabama(if they lose)- with Alabama likely getting the spot.

I agree with your analysis.

I agree also.

Not sure this is bizarre:

1) Clemson beats S. Carolina
2) Missouri falls to A&M
3) Alabama beats Auburn
4) Alabama falls to S. Carolina
5) Oklahoma St beats Oklahoma (wins Big 12)
6) Ohio St beats Michigan, Michigan St (wins Big 10)

Playoff:

#1 FSU
#2 Ohio State
#3 Clemson
#4 Oklahoma St

If Clemson beats S.Carolina and Bama falls to S. Carolina in the span of two weeks, no way to sell a one-loss Bama deserves a spot over a one-loss Clemson (to #1 FSU). Debate over Okie St and Bama would be heated, but I'd imagine the conference title would sway the vote for the Cowboys.

2008 is always brought up as support of an 8-team playoff. And it should be. 2008 is literally the ONE YEAR in the BCS era where 8 or 9 teams had equally plausible claims to the title. And if we had a 4-team playoff in 2008, as a PSU fan, I can guarantee I would have been bent out of shape. But one aberration is no reason to scrap the system.

(11-25-2013 03:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 02:05 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 12:54 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  And that loss at West Vir-friggin-ginia?!?!?! How does the committee spin THAT for OkSt?

Again, one of the best things about CFB is you have to be great in every game, all season long (or if not GREAT, greater than the rest)? OkSt can't be undecided at QB and lose to a mediocre team on the road....they have to be GREAT in every game (or greater).

NFL...9-7 Giants get hot and healthy in January...upset the 18-0 Patriots...get the Super Bowl title.

I don't want that kind of a championship.

You could if it ultimately goes to autobids, even in an 8 school playoff. Autobids will mean that a 6-6 Ga Tech or 7-5 Wisconsin from 2012 could sneak into their CCG, win the game, and qualify for the playoffs with an autobid.

The solution is, if there is ever an 8-team playoff, no autobids. That way, the fluke team that has 4 or 5 losses and pulls off an upset in a conference title game doesn't get a guarantee.

Nice theory...and it sure is "fair" but it's not reality. The conferences want their CCGs to be worth as much as possible to drive up their TV deals. If a spot in the playoff isn't insured (or at least HELPED), they lose some luster on their games. Check out this thread from a few weeks ago for reasons.

(11-26-2013 03:20 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 03:54 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 02:05 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 12:54 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  And that loss at West Vir-friggin-ginia?!?!?! How does the committee spin THAT for OkSt?

Again, one of the best things about CFB is you have to be great in every game, all season long (or if not GREAT, greater than the rest)? OkSt can't be undecided at QB and lose to a mediocre team on the road....they have to be GREAT in every game (or greater).

NFL...9-7 Giants get hot and healthy in January...upset the 18-0 Patriots...get the Super Bowl title.

I don't want that kind of a championship.

You could if it ultimately goes to autobids, even in an 8 school playoff. Autobids will mean that a 6-6 Ga Tech or 7-5 Wisconsin from 2012 could sneak into their CCG, win the game, and qualify for the playoffs with an autobid.

The solution is, if there is ever an 8-team playoff, no autobids. That way, the fluke team that has 4 or 5 losses and pulls off an upset in a conference title game doesn't get a guarantee.

Nice theory...and it sure is "fair" but it's not reality. The conferences want their CCGs to be worth as much as possible to drive up their TV deals. If a spot in the playoff isn't insured (or at least HELPED), they lose some luster on their games. Check out this thread from a few weeks ago for reasons.

But the thing is allthat, many have said they'd have no problem with 8-4 team qualifying and winning a championship as long as it was determined on the field. Considering the size of the conferences, along with the desire to eliminate body bag games, the possibility of undefeated teams from the P5 could diminish to the point where autobids for CCG winners becomes a palatable alternative to having a selection committee leave your team out due to multiple losses.

I don't think much about the future of the CFP can be determined until January. If we stick with the current structure, when the field is expanded to 8, it will be done in a committee with preference given towards conference winners and SOS. While unlikely, if the P5 are somehow able to break away, then CCG become the defacto 'first round' of an expanded 8 team field.