(03-26-2014 07:45 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think this is more like one bullet dodged rather than a win. If the American calls, UMass is gone. If the Big East calls for St. Louis and one more, they are gone.

It won't be over for the A-10 until UMass drops back to FCS, or just leaves altogether. The only "outs" for UMass to stay in the FBS and in the A-10 are as follows:

1) FBS Independent
2) Sun Belt football only
3) Big 12 football only

Option 1 is a pay cut (only $400K in playoff money) and a nightmare for scheduling, but at least BYU and Army are in the same boat. Even Notre Dame might be a possibility, although their availability is reduce with the ACC agreement.

Option 2 is really the last resort, but the Sun Belt may be open to it rather than wait out JMU and Missouri State.

Option 3 really isn't feasible, but if the Big 12 wanted to go to 12 or more with UConn as #11, it is the path of least resistance. UConn and UMass are two of the last four FBS programs in the northeast not in the P5 (Buffalo and Temple are the others). It would be more likely the Big 12 dissolves before this happens, though.

I know UMass has contacted the Sun Belt but I think the light bulbs are snapping on with the realization the league has significant leverage.

When UMass started talking to the MAC, UMass needed the MAC to become FBS but UMass had an "out" of status quo. They could stay FCS and tell fans that they had crunched the numbers and it made no sense, they could tell fans no one would take them without hoops. While MAC had no extreme pressure to expand, it was convenient and the hoops bargain useful.

While the Sun Belt would like to get to 12 in football, they want 12 in hoops. UMass isn't likely the deal that gets the league to reverse course and take NMSU all-sports.

The league would likely demand more than what the MAC did. UMass can't really swing playing more than four non-conference games and I don't know that the UMass hoops name carries as much cachet in the south as it does in MAC country.

The conference would likely include pocketing the extra $1 million of CFP money in addition to the 4 game deal if they were to be willing to add a third football only.

(03-26-2014 10:45 PM)LastMinuteman Wrote:  

(03-26-2014 10:15 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  I can't think of any reason the Sun Belt would want them for football only. Of course, I thought that about NMSU and especially Idaho also, so what do I know.

The Sun Belt has 11 football-playing members. 12 members are required by NCAA rules to hold a lucrative conference championship football game. There is a shortage of expansion candidates that the Sun Belt wants to invite that would accept a Sun Belt invitation.

The Sun Belt also has 2 non-football-playing members. So if they don't want to go above 12 in basketball, they need 2 football-only members to balance them out. New Mexico State, a current football-only member along with Idaho, would presumably get a full membership invitation if UMass was invited as a football-only. NMSU's basketball program would be a positive addition to the conference.

12 months ago the Sun Belt rejected NMSU as a full member. I don't see how that would change now.

(03-26-2014 11:54 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(03-26-2014 07:45 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  I think this is more like one bullet dodged rather than a win. If the American calls, UMass is gone. If the Big East calls for St. Louis and one more, they are gone.

It won't be over for the A-10 until UMass drops back to FCS, or just leaves altogether. The only "outs" for UMass to stay in the FBS and in the A-10 are as follows:

1) FBS Independent
2) Sun Belt football only
3) Big 12 football only

Option 1 is a pay cut (only $400K in playoff money) and a nightmare for scheduling, but at least BYU and Army are in the same boat. Even Notre Dame might be a possibility, although their availability is reduce with the ACC agreement.

Option 2 is really the last resort, but the Sun Belt may be open to it rather than wait out JMU and Missouri State.

Option 3 really isn't feasible, but if the Big 12 wanted to go to 12 or more with UConn as #11, it is the path of least resistance. UConn and UMass are two of the last four FBS programs in the northeast not in the P5 (Buffalo and Temple are the others). It would be more likely the Big 12 dissolves before this happens, though.

I know UMass has contacted the Sun Belt but I think the light bulbs are snapping on with the realization the league has significant leverage.

When UMass started talking to the MAC, UMass needed the MAC to become FBS but UMass had an "out" of status quo. They could stay FCS and tell fans that they had crunched the numbers and it made no sense, they could tell fans no one would take them without hoops. While MAC had no extreme pressure to expand, it was convenient and the hoops bargain useful.

While the Sun Belt would like to get to 12 in football, they want 12 in hoops. UMass isn't likely the deal that gets the league to reverse course and take NMSU all-sports.

The league would likely demand more than what the MAC did. UMass can't really swing playing more than four non-conference games and I don't know that the UMass hoops name carries as much cachet in the south as it does in MAC country.

The conference would likely include pocketing the extra $1 million of CFP money in addition to the 4 game deal if they were to be willing to add a third football only.

UMass would be better off as an Indy. UMass gets 400K from the A10, plus half thier earned credits, plus 200K in CFP money. Not to mention UMass could probably cut a deal for a regional tv contract. If thats truly the Sunbelt position, they will likely end up adding Liberty and watch while CUSA takes UMass and JMU. IMHO the Sunbelt needs to be careful not to overplay thier hand. Maybe I'm missing something, but it seems to me the Sunbelt and UMass buy each other time over the short run. UMass would simply fill a hole in the Sunbelt while they wait for JMU to come to their senses or a better alternative exists (anyone but Liberty).

(03-26-2014 11:57 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  While the Sun Belt would like to get to 12 in football, they want 12 in hoops.

(03-26-2014 11:57 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  12 months ago the Sun Belt rejected NMSU as a full member. I don't see how that would change now.

Seems like contradictory statements. Why would they reject an all-sports member if they are looking to get to 12 for hoops? Is there another school out there that they desire more and is likely to join?

(03-26-2014 11:54 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  While the Sun Belt would like to get to 12 in football, they want 12 in hoops. UMass isn't likely the deal that gets the league to reverse course and take NMSU all-sports.

The Sunbelt is the only conference that has seriously pursued the balanced hybrid league strategy, but given its low status in BBall ~ eg, bottom half of Division 1 conferences in conference RPI this last season ~ the schools that it can recruit as an Olympic sport match for a New England FB-only school would be even more limited than what the MAC could have drawn.

If the Sunbelt added a FB-only East Coast school, would that mean that the Northeastern island, Appy State plus the Georgia and Alabama schools in the east and stAte, ULL, ULM, Texas State, NMSU and Idaho in the west?

(03-26-2014 07:16 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Big win for the A-10. People aren't really talking about that angle of it, but I think most observers had UMass gone to the MAC if the MAC made the ultimatum.

My sense was that most informed observers predicted that UMass would leave if the ultimatum was presented.

Quote: This might also mean that Big East expansion looks a little less likely--would UMass be staying in teh A-10 if they thought 2/3 of SLU, Dayton and VCU were leaving? Probably not.

In a word, yes ... the A10 could take a step down in BBall from where it is now, and still be a step above the MAC.

(03-27-2014 12:12 AM)prp Wrote:  

(03-26-2014 11:57 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  While the Sun Belt would like to get to 12 in football, they want 12 in hoops.

(03-26-2014 11:57 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  12 months ago the Sun Belt rejected NMSU as a full member. I don't see how that would change now.

Seems like contradictory statements. Why would they reject an all-sports member if they are looking to get to 12 for hoops? Is there another school out there that they desire more and is likely to join?

NMSU is 630 miles from the CLOSEST Sun Belt school and ANOTHER 1050 from App State.

If NMSU joined of the other 11 full members only three schools are less than 1000 miles from NMSU. By comparison the longest trip for the MAC's far western outlier is 595 miles.

NMSU shortest conference trip would be longer than the longest MAC trip.

Texas A&M's longest trip in the SEC is shorter than 6 Sun Belt trips for NMSU.

(03-27-2014 01:19 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-26-2014 11:54 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  While the Sun Belt would like to get to 12 in football, they want 12 in hoops. UMass isn't likely the deal that gets the league to reverse course and take NMSU all-sports.

The Sunbelt is the only conference that has seriously pursued the balanced hybrid league strategy, but given its low status in BBall ~ eg, bottom half of Division 1 conferences in conference RPI this last season ~ the schools that it can recruit as an Olympic sport match for a New England FB-only school would be even more limited than what the MAC could have drawn.

If the Sunbelt added a FB-only East Coast school, would that mean that the Northeastern island, Appy State plus the Georgia and Alabama schools in the east and stAte, ULL, ULM, Texas State, NMSU and Idaho in the west?

Yes it would but one of AState or ULM would have to shift east in OLY if NMSU came in splitting a school from its in-state pair.

(03-27-2014 01:34 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Yes it would but one of AState or ULM would have to shift east in OLY if NMSU came in splitting a school from its in-state pair.

Which is why when the Sunbelt invited NMSU and Idaho FB-only, they invited two Olympic-sports schools also west of the Mississippi ... and both closer to other Western schools than the FB-only schools.

A better divisional split would come from some Olympic Sports school east of the Mississippi to balance a Northeastern FB-only school, but closer to the Eastern schools than UMass.