Bill Connelly’s original article
http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/20...-committee

Complete BCS standings for your perusal
http://www.footballfoundation.org/Progra...hives.aspx

Andy Staples began his assessments in 2003… http://www.si.com/college-football/2013/...-committee

This one will be interesting for the committee when it comes up. Strength of schedule is in the cross-hairs here. Utah’s (67th) wasn’t much worse than Auburn’s (60th), but as SEC champ, the undefeated Tigers wouldn’t be on the bubble. Utah’s was worse than blue-blood Texas (28th), but drastically worse than middle-tier Cal (12th). I’ll defer to Connelly—Utah vs. USC (preferably in the Fiesta or Rose) and OU vs. Auburn (preferably in the Sugar or Cotton).

Of course, it’s a non-issue today (Utah is in the Power5), but it will come up again when Cincinnati or Tulsa or Boise State goes undefeated.

Mess grade (how much controversy would exist)—C.
Staples: USC, Auburn, OU, Cal (over Utah)

You have 3 power 5 teams unbeaten, 2 unbeaten mid majors, and the two one-loss teams from P5 leagues as realistic competitors. The two loss teams all really don't have a gripe.

Pretty much a given are USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn. The last spot is the question:

Seeds are done via SOS-
USC - 7th SOS
OU- 13th SOS
Auburn- 67th SOS

(SOS taken from Sagarin)

Utah- 67th SOS after the Bowls. MWC Champs. UNBEATEN. (Auburn's SOS was 60th)
Boise State- 78th SOS after the Bowls. WAC Champs. UNBEATEN
Texas- 28th SOS. Didn't win division or league. Lost to a qualifier. Loss was not by a bad margin.
Cal- 12th SOS. Didn't win league. Lost to a qualifier. Loss was a close one.
Louisville- 1 narrow loss to Miami. 82nd SOS post-bowl. CUSA Champs.
UGA- 2 losses, didn't win league, lost by 18 to Auburn.
VT- Lost to USC and might have had a shot had they avoided losing to NC State. Won ACC though


My pick? Utah. Best SOS of unbeaten teams remaining and knocked off 3 P5 teams in noncon, one of which played in the Cotton Bowl. UNBEATEN counts in my book unless it's legitimately a 130+ SOS and theirs is honestly a few spots lower than Auburns according to Sagarin.

Texas and Cal had their shot at the top 2, didn't make it count, and that is all she wrote. If an unbeaten has a semi respectable schedule I will not exclude them.

Boise is first one out for that reason as I can't justify denying a team that beat everyone they played without good reason.

(08-03-2014 12:18 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  You have 3 power 5 teams unbeaten, 2 unbeaten mid majors, and the two one-loss teams from P5 leagues as realistic competitors. The two loss teams all really don't have a gripe.

Pretty much a given are USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn. The last spot is the question:

Seeds are done via SOS-
USC - 7th SOS
OU- 13th SOS
Auburn- 67th SOS

(SOS taken from Sagarin)

Utah- 67th SOS after the Bowls. MWC Champs. UNBEATEN. (Auburn's SOS was 60th)
Boise State- 78th SOS after the Bowls. WAC Champs. UNBEATEN
Texas- 28th SOS. Didn't win division or league. Lost to a qualifier. Loss was not by a bad margin.
Cal- 12th SOS. Didn't win league. Lost to a qualifier. Loss was a close one.
Louisville- 1 narrow loss to Miami. 82nd SOS post-bowl. CUSA Champs.
UGA- 2 losses, didn't win league, lost by 18 to Auburn.
VT- Lost to USC and might have had a shot had they avoided losing to NC State. Won ACC though


My pick? Utah. Best SOS of unbeaten teams remaining and knocked off 3 P5 teams in noncon, one of which played in the Cotton Bowl. UNBEATEN counts in my book unless it's legitimately a 130+ SOS and theirs is honestly a few spots lower than Auburns according to Sagarin.

Texas and Cal had their shot at the top 2, didn't make it count, and that is all she wrote. If an unbeaten has a semi respectable schedule I will not exclude them.

Boise is first one out for that reason as I can't justify denying a team that beat everyone they played without good reason.

Good argument. I buy it. But I don't think the committee would. Utah beat only 3 teams with winning records-Wyoming 7-5, New Mexico 7-5 and Texas A&M 7-5. There was really no discussion of Utah. I think a committee picks Texas, but it could go to Cal. Think Cal's last impression, struggling against a mediocre So. Miss squad in a storm delayed game gives the edge to Texas.

It's hard (in a case like this with so many worthy candidates) to put that SECOND team in from a P5 conference. Texas lost on a neutral site to OU. And then they didn't get the 13th game (OU played CU for the Big 12 CCG).

But if you're talking about who is the best team in the country, Cal barely lost on the road to #2...Utah was undefeated but against a poor, poor schedule. I lean towards Cal...but it's really a coin flip. I don't feel bad for Texas or Boise State or Louisville...but I would definitely feel bad for Utah or Cal.

(08-03-2014 01:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-03-2014 12:18 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  You have 3 power 5 teams unbeaten, 2 unbeaten mid majors, and the two one-loss teams from P5 leagues as realistic competitors. The two loss teams all really don't have a gripe.

Pretty much a given are USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn. The last spot is the question:

Seeds are done via SOS-
USC - 7th SOS
OU- 13th SOS
Auburn- 67th SOS

(SOS taken from Sagarin)

Utah- 67th SOS after the Bowls. MWC Champs. UNBEATEN. (Auburn's SOS was 60th)
Boise State- 78th SOS after the Bowls. WAC Champs. UNBEATEN
Texas- 28th SOS. Didn't win division or league. Lost to a qualifier. Loss was not by a bad margin.
Cal- 12th SOS. Didn't win league. Lost to a qualifier. Loss was a close one.
Louisville- 1 narrow loss to Miami. 82nd SOS post-bowl. CUSA Champs.
UGA- 2 losses, didn't win league, lost by 18 to Auburn.
VT- Lost to USC and might have had a shot had they avoided losing to NC State. Won ACC though


My pick? Utah. Best SOS of unbeaten teams remaining and knocked off 3 P5 teams in noncon, one of which played in the Cotton Bowl. UNBEATEN counts in my book unless it's legitimately a 130+ SOS and theirs is honestly a few spots lower than Auburns according to Sagarin.

Texas and Cal had their shot at the top 2, didn't make it count, and that is all she wrote. If an unbeaten has a semi respectable schedule I will not exclude them.

Boise is first one out for that reason as I can't justify denying a team that beat everyone they played without good reason.

Good argument. I buy it. But I don't think the committee would. Utah beat only 3 teams with winning records-Wyoming 7-5, New Mexico 7-5 and Texas A&M 7-5. There was really no discussion of Utah. I think a committee picks Texas, but it could go to Cal. Think Cal's last impression, struggling against a mediocre So. Miss squad in a storm delayed game gives the edge to Texas.

The more of these exercises we go through, the more I believe the committee will be taking conference champions over conference runner-ups from other conferences when 2 teams have similar records. Simply because the conference runner-ups had their chance and did not win they had to. Even if the consensus was that the runner-up of one conference was better than the champ of another, you don't know that for sure.
there will always be exceptions to this rule, which is why I look forward to the 2008 and 2011 discussions.

...which again, overall, is why having these CCGs is in many ways like a quarterfinal for this thing. I've stumped elsewhere that our next iteration of the CFP won't be a jump to 8 teams...but to 6 teams. Make a spot for all 5 major conference champs (the Big 12 won't be disappearing until 2025 or so anyway)...and one at-large (or Group of 5 undefeated).

First two teams get byes. Teams 3 and 4 host teams 5 and 6...or have a Super 6 site in a contract city where 4 vs. 5 on Friday night and 3 vs. 6 on Saturday night in mid-December. Winners move on to the Dec.31/Jan.1 bowl system as its been established (and I"m convinced will be wildly popular).

(08-03-2014 08:19 AM)goofus Wrote:  

(08-03-2014 01:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(08-03-2014 12:18 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  You have 3 power 5 teams unbeaten, 2 unbeaten mid majors, and the two one-loss teams from P5 leagues as realistic competitors. The two loss teams all really don't have a gripe.

Pretty much a given are USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn. The last spot is the question:

Seeds are done via SOS-
USC - 7th SOS
OU- 13th SOS
Auburn- 67th SOS

(SOS taken from Sagarin)

Utah- 67th SOS after the Bowls. MWC Champs. UNBEATEN. (Auburn's SOS was 60th)
Boise State- 78th SOS after the Bowls. WAC Champs. UNBEATEN
Texas- 28th SOS. Didn't win division or league. Lost to a qualifier. Loss was not by a bad margin.
Cal- 12th SOS. Didn't win league. Lost to a qualifier. Loss was a close one.
Louisville- 1 narrow loss to Miami. 82nd SOS post-bowl. CUSA Champs.
UGA- 2 losses, didn't win league, lost by 18 to Auburn.
VT- Lost to USC and might have had a shot had they avoided losing to NC State. Won ACC though


My pick? Utah. Best SOS of unbeaten teams remaining and knocked off 3 P5 teams in noncon, one of which played in the Cotton Bowl. UNBEATEN counts in my book unless it's legitimately a 130+ SOS and theirs is honestly a few spots lower than Auburns according to Sagarin.

Texas and Cal had their shot at the top 2, didn't make it count, and that is all she wrote. If an unbeaten has a semi respectable schedule I will not exclude them.

Boise is first one out for that reason as I can't justify denying a team that beat everyone they played without good reason.

Good argument. I buy it. But I don't think the committee would. Utah beat only 3 teams with winning records-Wyoming 7-5, New Mexico 7-5 and Texas A&M 7-5. There was really no discussion of Utah. I think a committee picks Texas, but it could go to Cal. Think Cal's last impression, struggling against a mediocre So. Miss squad in a storm delayed game gives the edge to Texas.

The more of these exercises we go through, the more I believe the committee will be taking conference champions over conference runner-ups from other conferences when 2 teams have similar records. Simply because the conference runner-ups had their chance and did not win they had to. Even if the consensus was that the runner-up of one conference was better than the champ of another, you don't know that for sure.
there will always be exceptions to this rule, which is why I look forward to the 2008 and 2011 discussions.

I don't really see that from their mock 2012 exercise (CNNSI article) and their continued emphasis on the "best" team, not the most deserving team. There's logic to your comments, especially considering the limited number of games between P5 conferences, but I don't think they will buy it.

If they went with "deserving" (for example a conference champ that has a decent schedule and wins a bunch of games by 7 points instead of blowing teams out-but wins vs a runnerup who blows teams out but has the same number of losses or 1 more) I think there would be fewer failures and less need to expand to 8. In this year, Utah may not have been "deserving" as they just really didn't play anyone. But the unbeaten Notre Dame (not a conference champ-but the only unbeaten) is a good example of a "deserving" team. They were a huge underdog against Alabama, but they played a good schedule and just managed to win. You had to include them even if their name wasn't Notre Dame.

I don't think Cal would have gotten it at all. Not only did they struggle vs Southern Miss in the final game, but their top WR got injured and would be out for the playoffs. That would have to figure into the committee's thinking.

Also- if you look at the computers- Texas was well ahead of Cal. I know computers won't come into play as much- but that to me means that the committee would still have reports- and in this case, Texas would be ahead of Cal in those. That's huge.

It's tough in all of these to take a Utah type team serious. Nothing against Utah- but just in the new system, there won't be a Utah. There just won't.

There will be undefeated Group of 5 teams.

The question is...will a major conference team's schedule "randomly" be weak enough to compare. Since the ACC/SEC are still at 8 games...I'll use them as an example.

Arkansas schedules 2 Group of 5 teams, 1 DIAA school, and 1 Power 5 school (let's say Colorado). The two G5 schools combine for a 3-21 record that year...Colorado has another 2-10 season. So, that's abysmal. In the SEC, they draw the 2 weakest teams from the East...lose 1 game to Alabama in the West...but beat everybody else in the SEC.

They are 11-1 in the mighty SEC. But their SOS is down in the 60s or 70s.

That Arkansas team vs. an undefeated Group of 5 school...

(08-04-2014 01:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I don't think Cal would have gotten it at all. Not only did they struggle vs Southern Miss in the final game, but their top WR got injured and would be out for the playoffs. That would have to figure into the committee's thinking.

Also- if you look at the computers- Texas was well ahead of Cal. I know computers won't come into play as much- but that to me means that the committee would still have reports- and in this case, Texas would be ahead of Cal in those. That's huge.

It's tough in all of these to take a Utah type team serious. Nothing against Utah- but just in the new system, there won't be a Utah. There just won't.

There will always be a Utah, but the question is are you getting 2007 Hawaii or 2013 UCF? Its hit and miss. Lets look at the track record of the BCS busters.

2004 Utah - 12-0 Utah blew out Bama in Sugar Bowl
2006 Boise - 12-0 Boise upsets Oklahoma in memorable Fiesa bowl thriller
2007 Hawaii - 12-0 Hawaii gets blown out in Sugar Bowl
2008 Utah - 12-0 Utah blows out pitt in fiesta bowl
2009 Boise & TCU - 12-0 Boise beats 12-0 TCU in fiesta bowl
2009 Cincy (BCS at the time but Cincy did not make the P5 cut) - 12-0 Cincy gets blown out in Sugar Bowl
2010 TCU - 12-0 TCU beats Wiscy in Rose Bowl
2010 Uconn - 8-4 Uconn gets blown out in Fiesta bowl and becomes poster child for teams that dont travel.
2012 NIU - 12-1 NIU gets blown out in Orange Bowl.
2013 UCF - 11-1 UCF upsets Baylor in Fiesta.

there is enough success in the BCS busters to suggest why they got an access bowl spot, but there won't be any 12-1 NIU's in the playoffs. But the undefeated G5 should be considered. My guess is if the G5 undefeated teams kick ass in the access bowls, they will start to get playoff spots.

(08-04-2014 02:39 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  There will be undefeated Group of 5 teams.

The question is...will a major conference team's schedule "randomly" be weak enough to compare. Since the ACC/SEC are still at 8 games...I'll use them as an example.

Arkansas schedules 2 Group of 5 teams, 1 DIAA school, and 1 Power 5 school (let's say Colorado). The two G5 schools combine for a 3-21 record that year...Colorado has another 2-10 season. So, that's abysmal. In the SEC, they draw the 2 weakest teams from the East...lose 1 game to Alabama in the West...but beat everybody else in the SEC.

They are 11-1 in the mighty SEC. But their SOS is down in the 60s or 70s.

That Arkansas team vs. an undefeated Group of 5 school...

and then they beat the SEC east champion. 12-1.

Also it's just not realistic. The WORST SOS in the SEC last year was Vandy- and they were at 50. Alabama was 2nd worse at 39.

and let's look at the G5 teams record in the BCS
2006- Boise won
2007- Hawaii lost
2009- Boise won
2009 Cincy lost
2010 UConn lost
2012 NIU lost
2013 UCF won

so 3-4. And of the 7, 4 of them have 0 chance of ever even getting a sniff of the playoff. only Boise 2 times and cincy 1 time have a shot.

(08-04-2014 07:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(08-04-2014 02:39 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  There will be undefeated Group of 5 teams.

The question is...will a major conference team's schedule "randomly" be weak enough to compare. Since the ACC/SEC are still at 8 games...I'll use them as an example.

Arkansas schedules 2 Group of 5 teams, 1 DIAA school, and 1 Power 5 school (let's say Colorado). The two G5 schools combine for a 3-21 record that year...Colorado has another 2-10 season. So, that's abysmal. In the SEC, they draw the 2 weakest teams from the East...lose 1 game to Alabama in the West...but beat everybody else in the SEC.

They are 11-1 in the mighty SEC. But their SOS is down in the 60s or 70s.

That Arkansas team vs. an undefeated Group of 5 school...

and then they beat the SEC east champion. 12-1.

Also it's just not realistic. The WORST SOS in the SEC last year was Vandy- and they were at 50. Alabama was 2nd worse at 39.

and let's look at the G5 teams record in the BCS
2006- Boise won
2007- Hawaii lost
2009- Boise won
2009 Cincy lost
2010 UConn lost
2012 NIU lost
2013 UCF won

so 3-4. And of the 7, 4 of them have 0 chance of ever even getting a sniff of the playoff. only Boise 2 times and cincy 1 time have a shot.

I'm not saying it's highly likely...but it's possible. Overall, I agree--the years of the yearly "BCS buster" are gone.

Plus, the other conferences (theoretically) are all increasing their SOS by adding a 9th league game, which could bump the SEC teams down. But it would take an extraordinary year for a Power 5 team with 1 loss to be debated with an undefeated mid-major.

I think it's going to be a 1 in a decade proposition, if not longer.

Really now, only the Big 10 is going to a 9th league game. That's it. And you look at the SEC- Vandy and Alabama were 50/39- the next worst one was 26th. 7 of the 14 teams had top 15 SOS last year.

I think for a G5 team to have a chance, it'd have to be a year like 2007 where there were no undefeated and only like 1 1 loss team. And it would have to be a special G5 team like a Boise in 2009. Other than that- just not going to happen.