(09-24-2014 10:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Here's my assessment:

1) Clearly, ECU has the inside track to the G5 Access Bowl spot. It is theirs to lose. The AP and Coaches poll make that clear. No, the CFP is not obligated to follow those polls, but there is no reason to believe that their thinking would be significantly different either. It is clear that the consensus is, as of now, that ECU is the best G5 team and they would certainly get the Access bid if the determination was being done today.

Still, I don't think they are anything like a given for it, for three reasons:

1) They already have a loss, which IMO means they have no further margin for error. One loss is absorbable, but if they were to lose again, I think that loss would loom larger. It will be difficult for the committee to declare a two-loss team as the best of the G5.

ECU is seemingly in good shape because they have nothing but AAC games remaining, but they are not the 85 Bears so many of these games will be dangerous.

2) Another factor that will be in play here is how current #13 South Carolina's season unfolds. If they go on to have an excellent year, that will make ECU's loss to them seem very understandable and it won't hurt is much. But if SC collapses, then the loss will look worse than it does now. SC does play a relatively soft SEC East schedule, but there are minefield games nonetheless. Clearly, it is in ECU's interest that SC keep winning.

3) The fate of UNC and VT. Maybe the biggest reason why the loss to SC hasn't hurt ECU much is that they have those notable wins against ACC rivals, both of which got big play in the national media. But, the lustre of those wins will fade if UNC and VT both fade out. UNC almost certainly will lose a few more times so that win will not look as good two months from now.

More ominous for ECU was VT's loss to Georgia Tech this past weekend. It would be great for ECU if VT were to maintain their status as a ranked team, but that is now questionable. VT's national profile soared thanks to their win at Ohio State, but two losses have diminished. Further losses by VT hurts ECU.

IOW's, it's far too early to be fitting ECU for the G5 slipper. Lots can happen over the next 8 weeks.

It is early, nobody is a given for anything. ECU can easily lose 1 or 2 by the end of the year, and if that 1 loss comes to an undefeated Cincy...They will be out with 2 losses, likely out even if cincy goes 11-1.

Even if both Cincy and Ecu had 2 losses, Marshall may well get the bid.. There is tons of FB left to play.

As it looks right now the winner of the AAC will get that slot...and in reality it is their slot anyways...

This speculation is great and all - but there are too many games for any team to be a given.

ECU surpassed my pre-season expectations so far and I'm enjoying it. But after we beat BYE this weekend, we will resume our series of 1 game seasons this year. ECU cannot afford to take any game lightly going forward.

(09-24-2014 02:07 PM)AnnapolisPirate Wrote:  This speculation is great and all - but there are too many games for any team to be a given.

ECU surpassed my pre-season expectations so far and I'm enjoying it. But after we beat BYE this weekend, we will resume our series of 1 game seasons this year. ECU cannot afford to take any game lightly going forward.

Just win the AAC...It's going to be either ECU, UCF or Cincinnati.

(09-24-2014 02:10 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:07 PM)AnnapolisPirate Wrote:  This speculation is great and all - but there are too many games for any team to be a given.

ECU surpassed my pre-season expectations so far and I'm enjoying it. But after we beat BYE this weekend, we will resume our series of 1 game seasons this year. ECU cannot afford to take any game lightly going forward.

Just win the AAC...It's going to be either ECU, UCF or Cincinnati.

I dunno..13-0 Marshall probably gets in over 10-2 UCF and maybe even 11-1 Cincinnati.

(09-24-2014 02:20 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:10 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:07 PM)AnnapolisPirate Wrote:  This speculation is great and all - but there are too many games for any team to be a given.

ECU surpassed my pre-season expectations so far and I'm enjoying it. But after we beat BYE this weekend, we will resume our series of 1 game seasons this year. ECU cannot afford to take any game lightly going forward.

Just win the AAC...It's going to be either ECU, UCF or Cincinnati.

I dunno..13-0 Marshall probably gets in over 10-2 UCF and maybe even 11-1 Cincinnati.

Not with that schedule

Well if all the Marshall/C-USA fans really believe C-USA is so much better than the AAC why do they at the same time think Marshall is going to coast while ECU will for sure lose to someone in a "weaker" league?

(09-24-2014 02:47 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:20 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:10 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:07 PM)AnnapolisPirate Wrote:  This speculation is great and all - but there are too many games for any team to be a given.

ECU surpassed my pre-season expectations so far and I'm enjoying it. But after we beat BYE this weekend, we will resume our series of 1 game seasons this year. ECU cannot afford to take any game lightly going forward.

Just win the AAC...It's going to be either ECU, UCF or Cincinnati.

I dunno..13-0 Marshall probably gets in over 10-2 UCF and maybe even 11-1 Cincinnati.

Not with that schedule

In theory, I agree with you. However, the committee is going to put in whomever looks the best and will draw the highest ratings. Saying they have an undefeated Marshall playing can by hyped more than a stalwart 11-1 Cincy or UCF. Also, no way a 2 loss G5 gets the game if there is an undefeated team still on the table.

(09-24-2014 01:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:16 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:15 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 11:03 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  If ECU wins out, there's little chance another G5 overtakes them.

If Cincinnati beats Ohio State in the horseshoe - and wins out - there won't be anything ECU can do. That would give ECU 2 losses, and UC a big leg up. So don't go counting chickens yet.

Well ECU would still decide its own destiny then since we play Cincy. We beat them and we're in. So in fact, there IS something we can do about it.

Not sure about the rules on conference champs. If co-champs is good enough for the G5 slot, there's no guarantee ECU beats out Cincinnati. Pollsters have shown a disinclination to consider head-to-head.

In the AAC, I'm not sure it will matter, at least with respect to ECU and Cincy. If somebody else is conference champ, then probably both of them are out. But if it comes down to their head to head, with both of them only having one loss, then the winner is the conference champ, and almost certainly the highest ranked conference champ.

The rule is the spot goes to the highest ranked conference champion or co-champion, which eliminates BYU as a contender. The only way Marshall goes is if they are undefeated and both the AAC and MWC champs have more than one loss. If NIU only has the one loss to Arkansas, it would probably come down to a coin flip with an undefeated Marshall.

(09-24-2014 02:57 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:47 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:20 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:10 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:07 PM)AnnapolisPirate Wrote:  This speculation is great and all - but there are too many games for any team to be a given.

ECU surpassed my pre-season expectations so far and I'm enjoying it. But after we beat BYE this weekend, we will resume our series of 1 game seasons this year. ECU cannot afford to take any game lightly going forward.

Just win the AAC...It's going to be either ECU, UCF or Cincinnati.

I dunno..13-0 Marshall probably gets in over 10-2 UCF and maybe even 11-1 Cincinnati.

Not with that schedule

In theory, I agree with you. However, the committee is going to put in whomever looks the best and will draw the highest ratings. Saying they have an undefeated Marshall playing can by hyped more than a stalwart 11-1 Cincy or UCF. Also, no way a 2 loss G5 gets the game if there is an undefeated team still on the table.

Well, UCF can't be 11-1 so that's off the table.

But think about this hype machine for a second.....

Cincy- undefeated (major hype, lots of B1G and ACC fans watching) - 1 loss--still major hype--conference fans want to see how good Miami/OSU's win/loss looks-- unless that loss is in AAC play, which would make for an even bigger hype machine imo. Plus AAC interest/opposing conference interest.

ECU- South Carolina, VT, and UNC fans have been following us closely all season. I can see major hype surrounding us from ACC+ some SEC fans if we were to win out and make the access bowl.

Memphis- Same situation but it would be with Ole Miss/UCLA

That's just the AAC. Boise would draw a lot of attention as usual.

I can buy a lot of hype surrounding Marshall if they were to play an SEC team-- literally everyone outside of the SEC would be pulling for them.

(09-24-2014 03:20 PM)ncbeta Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:57 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:47 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:20 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:10 PM)Maize Wrote:  Just win the AAC...It's going to be either ECU, UCF or Cincinnati.

I dunno..13-0 Marshall probably gets in over 10-2 UCF and maybe even 11-1 Cincinnati.

Not with that schedule

In theory, I agree with you. However, the committee is going to put in whomever looks the best and will draw the highest ratings. Saying they have an undefeated Marshall playing can by hyped more than a stalwart 11-1 Cincy or UCF. Also, no way a 2 loss G5 gets the game if there is an undefeated team still on the table.

Well, UCF can't be 11-1 so that's off the table.

But think about this hype machine for a second.....

Cincy- undefeated (major hype, lots of B1G and ACC fans watching) - 1 loss--still major hype--conference fans want to see how good Miami/OSU's win/loss looks-- unless that loss is in AAC play, which would make for an even bigger hype machine imo. Plus AAC interest/opposing conference interest.

ECU- South Carolina, VT, and UNC fans have been following us closely all season. I can see major hype surrounding us from ACC+ some SEC fans if we were to win out and make the access bowl.

Memphis- Same situation but it would be with Ole Miss/UCLA

That's just the AAC. Boise would draw a lot of attention as usual.

I can buy a lot of hype surrounding Marshall if they were to play an SEC team-- literally everyone outside of the SEC would be praying for them.

FIFY.

(09-24-2014 03:20 PM)ncbeta Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:57 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:47 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:20 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:10 PM)Maize Wrote:  Just win the AAC...It's going to be either ECU, UCF or Cincinnati.

I dunno..13-0 Marshall probably gets in over 10-2 UCF and maybe even 11-1 Cincinnati.

Not with that schedule

In theory, I agree with you. However, the committee is going to put in whomever looks the best and will draw the highest ratings. Saying they have an undefeated Marshall playing can by hyped more than a stalwart 11-1 Cincy or UCF. Also, no way a 2 loss G5 gets the game if there is an undefeated team still on the table.

Well, UCF can't be 11-1 so that's off the table.

But think about this hype machine for a second.....

Cincy- undefeated (major hype, lots of B1G and ACC fans watching) - 1 loss--still major hype--conference fans want to see how good Miami/OSU's win/loss looks-- unless that loss is in AAC play, which would make for an even bigger hype machine imo. Plus AAC interest/opposing conference interest.

ECU- South Carolina, VT, and UNC fans have been following us closely all season. I can see major hype surrounding us from ACC+ some SEC fans if we were to win out and make the access bowl.

Memphis- Same situation but it would be with Ole Miss/UCLA

That's just the AAC. Boise would draw a lot of attention as usual.

I can buy a lot of hype surrounding Marshall if they were to play an SEC team-- literally everyone outside of the SEC would be pulling for them.

I think you're giving the casual fan too much credit. To them, all G5 is basically the same and a 13-0 Marshall will appear more appealing than an 11-1 ECU or Cincy (I forgot UCF already had two Ls).

I personally don't think Marshall will go undefeated though, so it might not matter.

(09-24-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I guess you can say ECU and Cincy both control their own destiny. If either win out, they will be the G5 rep.

Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Nobody knows how Ole Miss is going to finish, but good grief, beating #10 Ole Miss, an SEC West team, would easily trump ECU beating Virginia Tech. It would be far and away the best win a G5 team has on their resume.

And their close loss to #11 UCLA wouldn't look any worse than ECU's loss to SC.

In that scenario, I would bet on Memphis over ECU to get the G5 bid.

ECU would have the 2nd win over UNC. Also, Ole Miss could by the end of the year be a 6-6 team. To not go 6-6, they would have to beat one of Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, Miss St(and not lose to Tennessee.)

Also- Memphis avoids playing UCF, while ECU avoids playing Houston. So SOS in conference play is plus ECU.

I will be shocked if the UNC win means much at the end of the year. They have lots of losses written all over them.

(09-24-2014 04:06 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Nobody knows how Ole Miss is going to finish, but good grief, beating #10 Ole Miss, an SEC West team, would easily trump ECU beating Virginia Tech. It would be far and away the best win a G5 team has on their resume.

And their close loss to #11 UCLA wouldn't look any worse than ECU's loss to SC.

In that scenario, I would bet on Memphis over ECU to get the G5 bid.

ECU would have the 2nd win over UNC. Also, Ole Miss could by the end of the year be a 6-6 team. To not go 6-6, they would have to beat one of Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, Miss St(and not lose to Tennessee.)

Also- Memphis avoids playing UCF, while ECU avoids playing Houston. So SOS in conference play is plus ECU.

I will be shocked if the UNC win means much at the end of the year. They have lots of losses written all over them.

Yes but you also have to consider how we beat UNC (style points matter). UNC had never surrendered more points (70), 1st downs (40), or yards (789). That is a beat down of epic proportions even if UNC goes 5-6 or whatever. Think about this as well, ECU has almost the same amount of yards (5th nationally) as Marshall does (2nd) despite playing one of the hardest schedules to date and Marshall's being one of the weakest.

(09-24-2014 04:06 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:42 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  Memphis, Temple and Boise State still are in the G5 representative conversation as well.

Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Nobody knows how Ole Miss is going to finish, but good grief, beating #10 Ole Miss, an SEC West team, would easily trump ECU beating Virginia Tech. It would be far and away the best win a G5 team has on their resume.

And their close loss to #11 UCLA wouldn't look any worse than ECU's loss to SC.

In that scenario, I would bet on Memphis over ECU to get the G5 bid.

ECU would have the 2nd win over UNC. Also, Ole Miss could by the end of the year be a 6-6 team. To not go 6-6, they would have to beat one of Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, Miss St(and not lose to Tennessee.)

Also- Memphis avoids playing UCF, while ECU avoids playing Houston. So SOS in conference play is plus ECU.

I will be shocked if the UNC win means much at the end of the year. They have lots of losses written all over them.

The VT win may not mean all that much either. I've got a feeling they're in for a few more losses before the year is up. Their win over Ohio State may not look all that great either. The Buckeyes could end up with 3 or 4 more losses before the season ends. Without Braxton Miller, I see some struggles coming up.

(09-24-2014 03:26 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 03:20 PM)ncbeta Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:57 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:47 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:20 PM)All Dukes_All Day Wrote:  I dunno..13-0 Marshall probably gets in over 10-2 UCF and maybe even 11-1 Cincinnati.

Not with that schedule

In theory, I agree with you. However, the committee is going to put in whomever looks the best and will draw the highest ratings. Saying they have an undefeated Marshall playing can by hyped more than a stalwart 11-1 Cincy or UCF. Also, no way a 2 loss G5 gets the game if there is an undefeated team still on the table.

Well, UCF can't be 11-1 so that's off the table.

But think about this hype machine for a second.....

Cincy- undefeated (major hype, lots of B1G and ACC fans watching) - 1 loss--still major hype--conference fans want to see how good Miami/OSU's win/loss looks-- unless that loss is in AAC play, which would make for an even bigger hype machine imo. Plus AAC interest/opposing conference interest.

ECU- South Carolina, VT, and UNC fans have been following us closely all season. I can see major hype surrounding us from ACC+ some SEC fans if we were to win out and make the access bowl.

Memphis- Same situation but it would be with Ole Miss/UCLA

That's just the AAC. Boise would draw a lot of attention as usual.

I can buy a lot of hype surrounding Marshall if they were to play an SEC team-- literally everyone outside of the SEC would be pulling for them.

I think you're giving the casual fan too much credit. To them, all G5 is basically the same and a 13-0 Marshall will appear more appealing than an 11-1 ECU or Cincy (I forgot UCF already had two Ls).

I personally don't think Marshall will go undefeated though, so it might not matter.

First of all the team that will likely get the Access bowl is Cincinnati. Secondly, I take it that you are not familiar with Fedora, UNC and the ACC, if you think that UNC is not going to be bowl eligible. UNC was in worse shape last year, when they started 1-5 and then went 5-1 down the home stretch to become bowl eligible. Fedora will pull it together and then they will kill some G5 team in a bowl game to finish 7-6 and then the national media will call them a sleeping giant again; and then Phil Steele will write another magazine article and create some more bogus computer stats so that he can justify making UNC his dark horse national title contender, again. And then some more preseason publications will put UNC in their preseason top 25 poll again. And then UNC will get drilled by Duke, NCSU or some team like that again next year.

(09-24-2014 02:10 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:07 PM)AnnapolisPirate Wrote:  This speculation is great and all - but there are too many games for any team to be a given.

ECU surpassed my pre-season expectations so far and I'm enjoying it. But after we beat BYE this weekend, we will resume our series of 1 game seasons this year. ECU cannot afford to take any game lightly going forward.

Just win the AAC...It's going to be either ECU, UCF or Cincinnati.

Or Memphis or Temple if they win out.

There are still a lot of variables in the AAC were 4 teams literally could win the Access bowl bid. This situation depends on Cincinnati and Memphis pulling upsets this weekend.

(09-24-2014 05:14 PM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:10 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 02:07 PM)AnnapolisPirate Wrote:  This speculation is great and all - but there are too many games for any team to be a given.

ECU surpassed my pre-season expectations so far and I'm enjoying it. But after we beat BYE this weekend, we will resume our series of 1 game seasons this year. ECU cannot afford to take any game lightly going forward.

Just win the AAC...It's going to be either ECU, UCF or Cincinnati.

Or Memphis or Temple if they win out.

There are still a lot of variables in the AAC were 4 teams literally could win the Access bowl bid. This situation depends on Cincinnati and Memphis pulling upsets this weekend.

True...but really the Access Slot is just the Old BIG EAST AQ Slot...if anyone from the AAC has 10 plus wins and with the Advantage of SoS it should be yours for the taking most years.

I am not sure I understand why people are ignoring Nevada's chances so much.

Their loss, at least so far, is not a bad one (7 pt loss to undefeated Arizona) and they beat Wash St convinclngly, which looks better after Oregon's WSU scare.

Most importantly, BYU is starting to get a lot of publicity and Nevada will be playing them October 18th when BYU may have moved up to the #10-15 range because of other teams losing. That gives Nevada the chance to have the most notable G5 win in the later part of the season.

I'm not saying Nevada CAN run the table, but they will get a lot of support if they do.

(09-24-2014 05:06 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 04:06 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-24-2014 12:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Those teams may be in the conversation, but they don't control their own fate. Memphis plays Cincy but not ECU. They would have a win vs Ole Miss. They would be interesting- but think ECU would get it quite frankly if both finish 11-1.

Nobody knows how Ole Miss is going to finish, but good grief, beating #10 Ole Miss, an SEC West team, would easily trump ECU beating Virginia Tech. It would be far and away the best win a G5 team has on their resume.

And their close loss to #11 UCLA wouldn't look any worse than ECU's loss to SC.

In that scenario, I would bet on Memphis over ECU to get the G5 bid.

ECU would have the 2nd win over UNC. Also, Ole Miss could by the end of the year be a 6-6 team. To not go 6-6, they would have to beat one of Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, Miss St(and not lose to Tennessee.)

Also- Memphis avoids playing UCF, while ECU avoids playing Houston. So SOS in conference play is plus ECU.

I will be shocked if the UNC win means much at the end of the year. They have lots of losses written all over them.

The VT win may not mean all that much either. I've got a feeling they're in for a few more losses before the year is up. Their win over Ohio State may not look all that great either. The Buckeyes could end up with 3 or 4 more losses before the season ends. Without Braxton Miller, I see some struggles coming up.

A Cincinnati win over Ohio State would help them in two ways. Obviously, it's a signature win for them, but it also indirectly diminishes the importance of ECU's win over Va Tech. Nevertheless, a head to head loss to the Pirates would scuttle them anyway.