USFRamenu
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
Once again to put this thread back on track. This is about the Big 12 expanding. Not some BS Basketball thread. While I know Basketball season is fast approaching, this thread isn't about that.
Big 12 expand and add USF, UCF, UC, ECU, Memphis and Tulane. Do it now and be the first to move to 4 divisions, Pod system.
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10-16-2014 02:51 PM |
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ncbeta
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
Trade Tulane for BYU and it's something worth considering.
FWIW I think bit's first post is spot on. I mean....there would have to be some serious fanbase upgrades for this to make $$. BYU- plausible. Then the others would have to become the flagship football program of their state...not going to happen.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2014 04:28 PM by ncbeta.)
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10-16-2014 04:26 PM |
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USFRamenu
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-16-2014 04:26 PM)ncbeta Wrote: Trade Tulane for BYU and it's something worth considering.
FWIW I think bit's first post is spot on. I mean....there would have to be some serious fan base upgrades for this to make $$. BYU- plausible. Then the others would have to become the flagship football program of their state...not going to happen.
Actually, BYU is not a simple move. Do they have fans yes but, they're spread out all across the country. How do you take advantage of the fan base for your network to maximize it's cash flow. You can't. As for the others, they do not have to be the #1 or #2 of their state, they only need to pull a significant enough number of fans to warrant their network being added to the local cable package. I.E. Rutgers and MD. I'll also add that Louisiana is larger in population then Utah and is a hot recruiting area.
As for it never happening. Never say NEVER!!!
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2014 04:51 PM by USFRamenu.)
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10-16-2014 04:50 PM |
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Wilkie01
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-16-2014 04:50 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: (10-16-2014 04:26 PM)ncbeta Wrote: Trade Tulane for BYU and it's something worth considering.
FWIW I think bit's first post is spot on. I mean....there would have to be some serious fan base upgrades for this to make $$. BYU- plausible. Then the others would have to become the flagship football program of their state...not going to happen.
Actually, BYU is not a simple move. Do they have fans yes but, they're spread out all across the country. How do you take advantage of the fan base for your network to maximize it's cash flow. You can't. As for the others, they do not have to be the #1 or #2 of their state, they only need to pull a significant enough number of fans to warrant their network being added to the local cable package. I.E. Rutgers and MD. I'll also add that Louisiana is larger in population then Utah and is a hot recruiting area.
As for it never happening. Never say NEVER!!!
Valid points, but I will insert a variable that Tulane can never overcome. The variable is most athletics that worth signing in Louisiana will choose LSU first, over SEC schools second and Big 12 teams third. And then there is Miami, FSU and Clemson. These group of schools all are more desirable than Tulane.
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10-16-2014 05:54 PM |
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pablowow
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-16-2014 05:54 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote: (10-16-2014 04:50 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: (10-16-2014 04:26 PM)ncbeta Wrote: Trade Tulane for BYU and it's something worth considering.
FWIW I think bit's first post is spot on. I mean....there would have to be some serious fan base upgrades for this to make $$. BYU- plausible. Then the others would have to become the flagship football program of their state...not going to happen.
Actually, BYU is not a simple move. Do they have fans yes but, they're spread out all across the country. How do you take advantage of the fan base for your network to maximize it's cash flow. You can't. As for the others, they do not have to be the #1 or #2 of their state, they only need to pull a significant enough number of fans to warrant their network being added to the local cable package. I.E. Rutgers and MD. I'll also add that Louisiana is larger in population then Utah and is a hot recruiting area.
As for it never happening. Never say NEVER!!!
Valid points, but I will insert a variable that Tulane can never overcome. The variable is most athletics that worth signing in Louisiana will choose LSU first, over SEC schools second and Big 12 teams third. And then there is Miami, FSU and Clemson. These group of schools all are more desirable than Tulane.
Wilkie,
You of all people should know what a long road it is when you are in an outside the power conferences. Tulane was their own worst enemy in their development. It is well documented. But if tulane were in a peer group of power and continue the commitment. They are the biggest threat to anyone trying to come into our talent rich state. It is happening. Kids would love to stay close to their families and play for a power school with high academics. It will be very difficult to pull those kids after LSU gets their choice.
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10-16-2014 06:01 PM |
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True Bearcat
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-16-2014 05:54 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote: (10-16-2014 04:50 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: (10-16-2014 04:26 PM)ncbeta Wrote: Trade Tulane for BYU and it's something worth considering.
FWIW I think bit's first post is spot on. I mean....there would have to be some serious fan base upgrades for this to make $$. BYU- plausible. Then the others would have to become the flagship football program of their state...not going to happen.
Actually, BYU is not a simple move. Do they have fans yes but, they're spread out all across the country. How do you take advantage of the fan base for your network to maximize it's cash flow. You can't. As for the others, they do not have to be the #1 or #2 of their state, they only need to pull a significant enough number of fans to warrant their network being added to the local cable package. I.E. Rutgers and MD. I'll also add that Louisiana is larger in population then Utah and is a hot recruiting area.
As for it never happening. Never say NEVER!!!
Valid points, but I will insert a variable that Tulane can never overcome. The variable is most athletics that worth signing in Louisiana will choose LSU first, over SEC schools second and Big 12 teams third. And then there is Miami, FSU and Clemson. These group of schools all are more desirable than Tulane.
I know football players go to the biggest name school, and usually don't care about academics, but going to to Tulane to play football and get a quality education beats going to any of those schools you listed.
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10-16-2014 06:04 PM |
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Wilkie01
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
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10-16-2014 06:05 PM |
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USFRamenu
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-16-2014 06:05 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote: (10-16-2014 06:01 PM)pablowow Wrote: (10-16-2014 05:54 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote: (10-16-2014 04:50 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: (10-16-2014 04:26 PM)ncbeta Wrote: Trade Tulane for BYU and it's something worth considering.
FWIW I think bit's first post is spot on. I mean....there would have to be some serious fan base upgrades for this to make $$. BYU- plausible. Then the others would have to become the flagship football program of their state...not going to happen.
Actually, BYU is not a simple move. Do they have fans yes but, they're spread out all across the country. How do you take advantage of the fan base for your network to maximize it's cash flow. You can't. As for the others, they do not have to be the #1 or #2 of their state, they only need to pull a significant enough number of fans to warrant their network being added to the local cable package. I.E. Rutgers and MD. I'll also add that Louisiana is larger in population then Utah and is a hot recruiting area.
As for it never happening. Never say NEVER!!!
Valid points, but I will insert a variable that Tulane can never overcome. The variable is most athletics that worth signing in Louisiana will choose LSU first, over SEC schools second and Big 12 teams third. And then there is Miami, FSU and Clemson. These group of schools all are more desirable than Tulane.
Wilkie,
You of all people should know what a long road it is when you are in an outside the power conferences. Tulane was their own worst enemy in their development. It is well documented. But if tulane were in a peer group of power and continue the commitment. They are the biggest threat to anyone trying to come into our talent rich state. It is happening. Kids would love to stay close to their families and play for a power school with high academics. It will be very difficult to pull those kids after LSU gets their choice.
Then there's not much left when LSU is done!
Tulane is not just a School, it's a destination, Bowl location and they've got their new on campus stadium. I know they won't pull in top recruits by themselves but, they serve as a location where the rest of the Big 12 powers can display their teams in a local forum that allows for these recruits to see the teams.
There's a lot more to it then just saying it's the SEC first and the ACC second. To be honest it's nothing of the sort. Kids pick schools for many reasons. Some are out of their control and others aren't. If Tulane were added to the Big 12, they'd get higher rated recruits and more of them. Just as the Big 12 would by associating with Tulane and playing in their stadium letting the local kids and their families see the teams play.
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10-16-2014 06:25 PM |
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Groo
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-16-2014 02:51 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: Once again to put this thread back on track. This is about the Big 12 expanding. Not some BS Basketball thread. While I know Basketball season is fast approaching, this thread isn't about that.
Big 12 expand and add USF, UCF, UC, ECU, Memphis and Tulane. Do it now and be the first to move to 4 divisions, Pod system.
Not a single university in the Big 12 is going to give up a round robin, let alone take a pay cut, to add any of those teams.
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10-16-2014 09:26 PM |
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quo vadis
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-16-2014 09:26 PM)Groo Wrote: (10-16-2014 02:51 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: Once again to put this thread back on track. This is about the Big 12 expanding. Not some BS Basketball thread. While I know Basketball season is fast approaching, this thread isn't about that.
Big 12 expand and add USF, UCF, UC, ECU, Memphis and Tulane. Do it now and be the first to move to 4 divisions, Pod system.
Not a single university in the Big 12 is going to give up a round robin, let alone take a pay cut, to add any of those teams.
That's true, but we can dream, can't we?
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10-17-2014 08:51 AM |
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Gray Avenger
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-16-2014 06:04 PM)True Bearcat Wrote: (10-16-2014 05:54 PM)Wilkie01 Wrote: (10-16-2014 04:50 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: (10-16-2014 04:26 PM)ncbeta Wrote: Trade Tulane for BYU and it's something worth considering.
FWIW I think bit's first post is spot on. I mean....there would have to be some serious fan base upgrades for this to make $$. BYU- plausible. Then the others would have to become the flagship football program of their state...not going to happen.
Actually, BYU is not a simple move. Do they have fans yes but, they're spread out all across the country. How do you take advantage of the fan base for your network to maximize it's cash flow. You can't. As for the others, they do not have to be the #1 or #2 of their state, they only need to pull a significant enough number of fans to warrant their network being added to the local cable package. I.E. Rutgers and MD. I'll also add that Louisiana is larger in population then Utah and is a hot recruiting area.
As for it never happening. Never say NEVER!!!
Valid points, but I will insert a variable that Tulane can never overcome. The variable is most athletics that worth signing in Louisiana will choose LSU first, over SEC schools second and Big 12 teams third. And then there is Miami, FSU and Clemson. These group of schools all are more desirable than Tulane.
I know football players go to the biggest name school, and usually don't care about academics, but going to to Tulane to play football and get a quality education beats going to any of those schools you listed.
Tulane not only has class, tradition and academic excellence but is located in a great travel destination (not to mention fertile recruiting territory). I am very proud for my alma mater to be associated with TU and I predict that they will once again excel in football.
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10-17-2014 09:26 AM |
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-16-2014 09:26 PM)Groo Wrote: (10-16-2014 02:51 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: Once again to put this thread back on track. This is about the Big 12 expanding. Not some BS Basketball thread. While I know Basketball season is fast approaching, this thread isn't about that.
Big 12 expand and add USF, UCF, UC, ECU, Memphis and Tulane. Do it now and be the first to move to 4 divisions, Pod system.
Not a single university in the Big 12 is going to give up a round robin, let alone take a pay cut, to add any of those teams.
Not only that, but not only does it look like a 10 team model is viable, it looks like it can thrive. Most importantly, the Big 12 has the resources (deep pockets, fertile recruiting, strong revenue) that predict success. With programs like TCU and Baylor thriving right now, the league looks like it will be competitive and deep and provide a consistent presence in the top 25, which helps with image.
So it has tons of resources (both monetary and talent), good on the field product, and strong yearly rivalries and a deep history. Why mess with that and create a situation where teams are missing Texas and Oklahoma... and with less revenue to boot?
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10-17-2014 09:50 AM |
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Knightsweat
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-17-2014 09:50 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: (10-16-2014 09:26 PM)Groo Wrote: (10-16-2014 02:51 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: Once again to put this thread back on track. This is about the Big 12 expanding. Not some BS Basketball thread. While I know Basketball season is fast approaching, this thread isn't about that.
Big 12 expand and add USF, UCF, UC, ECU, Memphis and Tulane. Do it now and be the first to move to 4 divisions, Pod system.
Not a single university in the Big 12 is going to give up a round robin, let alone take a pay cut, to add any of those teams.
Not only that, but not only does it look like a 10 team model is viable, it looks like it can thrive. Most importantly, the Big 12 has the resources (deep pockets, fertile recruiting, strong revenue) that predict success. With programs like TCU and Baylor thriving right now, the league looks like it will be competitive and deep and provide a consistent presence in the top 25, which helps with image.
So it has tons of resources (both monetary and talent), good on the field product, and strong yearly rivalries and a deep history. Why mess with that and create a situation where teams are missing Texas and Oklahoma... and with less revenue to boot?
I have to agree that the Big12 round robin schedule seems to be working so far. Of course it helps to have 5 teams ranked in the Top25.
I'm still hopeful the Big12 will expand at some point, but unless a Big12 school gets passed over for an Access Bowl or the CFP, it's not likely to happen.
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10-17-2014 10:26 AM |
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jaredf29
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-17-2014 10:26 AM)Knightsweat Wrote: (10-17-2014 09:50 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: (10-16-2014 09:26 PM)Groo Wrote: (10-16-2014 02:51 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: Once again to put this thread back on track. This is about the Big 12 expanding. Not some BS Basketball thread. While I know Basketball season is fast approaching, this thread isn't about that.
Big 12 expand and add USF, UCF, UC, ECU, Memphis and Tulane. Do it now and be the first to move to 4 divisions, Pod system.
Not a single university in the Big 12 is going to give up a round robin, let alone take a pay cut, to add any of those teams.
Not only that, but not only does it look like a 10 team model is viable, it looks like it can thrive. Most importantly, the Big 12 has the resources (deep pockets, fertile recruiting, strong revenue) that predict success. With programs like TCU and Baylor thriving right now, the league looks like it will be competitive and deep and provide a consistent presence in the top 25, which helps with image.
So it has tons of resources (both monetary and talent), good on the field product, and strong yearly rivalries and a deep history. Why mess with that and create a situation where teams are missing Texas and Oklahoma... and with less revenue to boot?
I have to agree that the Big12 round robin schedule seems to be working so far. Of course it helps to have 5 teams ranked in the Top25.
I'm still hopeful the Big12 will expand at some point, but unless a Big12 school gets passed over for an Access Bowl or the CFP, it's not likely to happen.
They're going to get passed over for the playoff but not NYD bowl. The 10 team round robin works perfectly, if one school goes undefeated. That's just not going to happen though. On the other hand I actually believe it's better for the B12 if schools other than Texas and OU are better. I think those that are stating that the B12 is best at 10 teams sound eerily similar to those in the BE and for the same reasons.
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10-17-2014 10:39 AM |
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-17-2014 10:39 AM)jaredf29 Wrote: (10-17-2014 10:26 AM)Knightsweat Wrote: (10-17-2014 09:50 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: (10-16-2014 09:26 PM)Groo Wrote: (10-16-2014 02:51 PM)USFRamenu Wrote: Once again to put this thread back on track. This is about the Big 12 expanding. Not some BS Basketball thread. While I know Basketball season is fast approaching, this thread isn't about that.
Big 12 expand and add USF, UCF, UC, ECU, Memphis and Tulane. Do it now and be the first to move to 4 divisions, Pod system.
Not a single university in the Big 12 is going to give up a round robin, let alone take a pay cut, to add any of those teams.
Not only that, but not only does it look like a 10 team model is viable, it looks like it can thrive. Most importantly, the Big 12 has the resources (deep pockets, fertile recruiting, strong revenue) that predict success. With programs like TCU and Baylor thriving right now, the league looks like it will be competitive and deep and provide a consistent presence in the top 25, which helps with image.
So it has tons of resources (both monetary and talent), good on the field product, and strong yearly rivalries and a deep history. Why mess with that and create a situation where teams are missing Texas and Oklahoma... and with less revenue to boot?
I have to agree that the Big12 round robin schedule seems to be working so far. Of course it helps to have 5 teams ranked in the Top25.
I'm still hopeful the Big12 will expand at some point, but unless a Big12 school gets passed over for an Access Bowl or the CFP, it's not likely to happen.
They're going to get passed over for the playoff but not NYD bowl. The 10 team round robin works perfectly, if one school goes undefeated. That's just not going to happen though. On the other hand I actually believe it's better for the B12 if schools other than Texas and OU are better. I think those that are stating that the B12 is best at 10 teams sound eerily similar to those in the BE and for the same reasons.
With 5 teams in the top 15 at the halfway point, a 1 loss Big 12 champ is basically a lock for the CFP at this point, unless this is one of those odd seasons with a bunch of undefeated teams (and doesn't look it will be). Doesn't really matter who it is- a 1 loss Baylor, OU, TCU, OSU, or KSU is going to have several strong wins and a sole strong loss. I don't think a 2 loss champ can make it unless there is a ton of attrition in the top 5 (although if WVU wins out they would have a strong resume since their losses were early and to top 10 teams, and they would have 4 top 15 or so wins down the stretch).
The comparisons with the BE are weak- the BE was a huge hybrid conference without a clear vision and didn't have the football recruiting resources the Big 12 has.
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10-17-2014 10:51 AM |
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adcorbett
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-17-2014 10:51 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: (10-17-2014 10:39 AM)jaredf29 Wrote: They're going to get passed over for the playoff but not NYD bowl. The 10 team round robin works perfectly, if one school goes undefeated.
With 5 teams in the top 15 at the halfway point, a 1 loss Big 12 champ is basically a lock for the CFP at this point, unless this is one of those odd seasons with a bunch of undefeated teams (and doesn't look it will be). Doesn't really matter who it is- a 1 loss Baylor, OU, TCU, OSU, or KSU is going to have several strong wins and a sole strong loss. .
Last year the Big 12 had a loss champion, and using the BCS standings as a guide, they were not going. and were even behind a two loss PAC 12 team. They also had 4 top 20 teams at this time last year. The problem is they all play each other, and one team loses.
The plus side of the round robin is everyone plays the same schedule. The downside is everyone plays the same schedule. the advantage other teams have is since not everyone plays each other, they have more teams to spread the losses. If you are a one (conference) loss Big 12 team, then every year your opponent's conference record will be 82-98. If it is a 2 loss team they will be 83-97. There is no wiggle room. With less OOC games to make up. The other conferences, all have possibilities of their opponents having higher conference winning percentages, which often equates to higher overall winning percentages. Especially when you add in the CCG opponent, who will help tip the scale. One year is not enough to determine a trend, but that is the handicap.
Now it doesn't mean they need to expand because of this. But there is a legit handicap in terms of the playoff because of the round robin.
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10-17-2014 11:06 AM |
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Tigeer
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-17-2014 10:51 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: (10-17-2014 10:39 AM)jaredf29 Wrote: (10-17-2014 10:26 AM)Knightsweat Wrote: (10-17-2014 09:50 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: (10-16-2014 09:26 PM)Groo Wrote: Not a single university in the Big 12 is going to give up a round robin, let alone take a pay cut, to add any of those teams.
Not only that, but not only does it look like a 10 team model is viable, it looks like it can thrive. Most importantly, the Big 12 has the resources (deep pockets, fertile recruiting, strong revenue) that predict success. With programs like TCU and Baylor thriving right now, the league looks like it will be competitive and deep and provide a consistent presence in the top 25, which helps with image.
So it has tons of resources (both monetary and talent), good on the field product, and strong yearly rivalries and a deep history. Why mess with that and create a situation where teams are missing Texas and Oklahoma... and with less revenue to boot?
I have to agree that the Big12 round robin schedule seems to be working so far. Of course it helps to have 5 teams ranked in the Top25.
I'm still hopeful the Big12 will expand at some point, but unless a Big12 school gets passed over for an Access Bowl or the CFP, it's not likely to happen.
They're going to get passed over for the playoff but not NYD bowl. The 10 team round robin works perfectly, if one school goes undefeated. That's just not going to happen though. On the other hand I actually believe it's better for the B12 if schools other than Texas and OU are better. I think those that are stating that the B12 is best at 10 teams sound eerily similar to those in the BE and for the same reasons.
With 5 teams in the top 15 at the halfway point, a 1 loss Big 12 champ is basically a lock for the CFP at this point, unless this is one of those odd seasons with a bunch of undefeated teams (and doesn't look it will be). Doesn't really matter who it is- a 1 loss Baylor, OU, TCU, OSU, or KSU is going to have several strong wins and a sole strong loss. I don't think a 2 loss champ can make it unless there is a ton of attrition in the top 5 (although if WVU wins out they would have a strong resume since their losses were early and to top 10 teams, and they would have 4 top 15 or so wins down the stretch).
The comparisons with the BE are weak- the BE was a huge hybrid conference without a clear vision and didn't have the football recruiting resources the Big 12 has.
I am of the opinion that we are going to find out by time the year is over the Big 12 is the second best league for on the field product.
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10-17-2014 11:07 AM |
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jaredf29
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
I will concede it is possible for a 1 loss champ to get in, I don't think it's likely. Don't see the comparisons bc it can't possibly happen to the B12. The BE lost Virginia tech, Miami, and BC and this when they were good. Then they back filled but couldn't last another round of realignment bc they wouldn't get on the same page and didn't want dilute they're payout. The B12 lost Nebraska, Mizzou, Colorado, and A&M in this round of realignment. If the BCS system was still alive there's no question the B12 would have a rep, but it's dead and it is a completely different game. Don't get me wrong I don't the B12 will just randomly implode and they're a good league with great schools but the path they're on is one of hubris.
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10-17-2014 11:10 AM |
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jaredf29
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-17-2014 11:06 AM)adcorbett Wrote: (10-17-2014 10:51 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: (10-17-2014 10:39 AM)jaredf29 Wrote: They're going to get passed over for the playoff but not NYD bowl. The 10 team round robin works perfectly, if one school goes undefeated.
With 5 teams in the top 15 at the halfway point, a 1 loss Big 12 champ is basically a lock for the CFP at this point, unless this is one of those odd seasons with a bunch of undefeated teams (and doesn't look it will be). Doesn't really matter who it is- a 1 loss Baylor, OU, TCU, OSU, or KSU is going to have several strong wins and a sole strong loss. .
Last year the Big 12 had a loss champion, and using the BCS standings as a guide, they were not going. and were even behind a two loss PAC 12 team. They also had 4 top 20 teams at this time last year. The problem is they all play each other, and one team loses.
The plus side of the round robin is everyone plays the same schedule. The downside is everyone plays the same schedule. the advantage other teams have is since not everyone plays each other, they have more teams to spread the losses. If you are a one (conference) loss Big 12 team, then every year your opponent's conference record will be 82-98. If it is a 2 loss team they will be 83-97. There is no wiggle room. With less OOC games to make up. The other conferences, all have possibilities of their opponents having higher conference winning percentages, which often equates to higher overall winning percentages. Especially when you add in the CCG opponent, who will help tip the scale. One year is not enough to determine a trend, but that is the handicap.
Now it doesn't mean they need to expand because of this. But there is a legit handicap in terms of the playoff because of the round robin.
This. That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying the schools aren't good on the field or that the B12 isn't all that good as a whole. I'm merely saying it is an uphill battle for the B12 to make the playoff bc of the system they have in place. It also doesn't help that only WVU and Kansas State are the only teams to play notable ooc.
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10-17-2014 11:17 AM |
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink
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RE: Big 12 needs to become the Big 16...
(10-17-2014 11:06 AM)adcorbett Wrote: (10-17-2014 10:51 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: (10-17-2014 10:39 AM)jaredf29 Wrote: They're going to get passed over for the playoff but not NYD bowl. The 10 team round robin works perfectly, if one school goes undefeated.
With 5 teams in the top 15 at the halfway point, a 1 loss Big 12 champ is basically a lock for the CFP at this point, unless this is one of those odd seasons with a bunch of undefeated teams (and doesn't look it will be). Doesn't really matter who it is- a 1 loss Baylor, OU, TCU, OSU, or KSU is going to have several strong wins and a sole strong loss. .
Last year the Big 12 had a loss champion, and using the BCS standings as a guide, they were not going. and were even behind a two loss PAC 12 team. They also had 4 top 20 teams at this time last year. The problem is they all play each other, and one team loses.
The plus side of the round robin is everyone plays the same schedule. The downside is everyone plays the same schedule. the advantage other teams have is since not everyone plays each other, they have more teams to spread the losses. If you are a one (conference) loss Big 12 team, then every year your opponent's conference record will be 82-98. If it is a 2 loss team they will be 83-97. There is no wiggle room. With less OOC games to make up. The other conferences, all have possibilities of their opponents having higher conference winning percentages, which often equates to higher overall winning percentages. Especially when you add in the CCG opponent, who will help tip the scale. One year is not enough to determine a trend, but that is the handicap.
Now it doesn't mean they need to expand because of this. But there is a legit handicap in terms of the playoff because of the round robin.
First, every year is different.
This year for the Big 12, it has positioned itself well. There are more teams better positioned than last year at this time. It's the only league with half its league in the top 25, and all of those teams are in the top 15. All of the losses by the top 6 teams (including WVU) are close losses to current top 12 teams. Think about that again- the top 6 teams in the Big 12 (60% of the league) have 6 total losses and every one of those losses are to teams currently in the top 12. That's a lot of power building up in the conference, and pretty much guarantees a good resume for the conference champ, regardless of how it shakes out..
The committee will not simply look at conference winning percentage in a vacuum. It will look the whole picture- SOS, when losses occur, injuries, conference championships, comparative scores. The latter is important, as whoever rises up in the conference to win is going to have nice comparative scores. For example, if Baylor is a one loss team and blows out WVU and Baylor and Alabama are vying for a spot, that WVU close loss is going to play a role in the committee.
The way things have shaked out this year, the Big 12 is already strong enough that whoever navigates the rest of the slate and becomes champion are basically in if they have one loss.
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10-17-2014 11:43 AM |
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