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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Twitter Rumor
There is a limit on how big a conference can get. That's not even concerning issues like fit, finances, etc.. Then you have to take into consideration that college presidents want to maintain collegiality among each other. Unless there is a compelling case to drastically change the numbers they won't do it. "Compelling" would include non-financial criteria, so even if a school brings in money it doesn't necessarily be a fit for an adding conference.

In any case, the Power 5 is very comfortable with 65 or 66 members. Don't expect that number to change radically.
05-06-2015 05:46 PM
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CintiFan Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Twitter Rumor
(05-06-2015 08:23 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  You are wrong, I saw it coming, I even told the folks here that Maryland was a cinch for The Big Ten. You are wrong about Texas and what they want. You think Texas is going to start a new conference and you are saying everyone else is missing the mark? It's not that easy, ever heard of basketball credits?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Basketball credits and exit fees didn't stop teams from leaving conferences last time and they won't next time when the GOR-ending window of opportunity presents itself. Monetary details are just short term obstacles to long term plans. They get worked out, whether somewhat amicably as the old Big East did or via settlement of nasty litigation as the ACC chose.

And clearly most folks who matter, meaning University Presidents and Boards of Trustees, were surprised and not prepared for realignment last time. They will have a plan for next time. Message board bloggers don't count.
05-07-2015 12:16 AM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Twitter Rumor
(05-07-2015 12:16 AM)CintiFan Wrote:  
(05-06-2015 08:23 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  You are wrong, I saw it coming, I even told the folks here that Maryland was a cinch for The Big Ten. You are wrong about Texas and what they want. You think Texas is going to start a new conference and you are saying everyone else is missing the mark? It's not that easy, ever heard of basketball credits?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Basketball credits and exit fees didn't stop teams from leaving conferences last time and they won't next time when the GOR-ending window of opportunity presents itself. Monetary details are just short term obstacles to long term plans. They get worked out, whether somewhat amicably as the old Big East did or via settlement of nasty litigation as the ACC chose.

And clearly most folks who matter, meaning University Presidents and Boards of Trustees, were surprised and not prepared for realignment last time. They will have a plan for next time. Message board bloggers don't count.

They left from conferences that had credits and joined conferences....that have credits. You are talking about leaving conferences that have credits and forming a new conference that has no credits. You are talking about a major blow to the chin right off the bat. Sure they could end up with more in the end but the Networks want to maximize the total value of college sports, not weaken the overall value by cherry picking like that.

You are saying some true statements but none of them actually support the creation of a brand new conference. By trying to make those connections you are creating a logical fallacy.

Your attempt to take a dig at me is amusing but childish. If you wish to be a child dangling on a string, be my guest. I don't know what Presidents and Trustees you are talking about when you make such a generalized statement that has little value due to that generalization but it takes Presidential votes to allow in a new school so guess what...they weren't all that surprised. 07-coffee3

My suggestion to you is not to react emotionally when someone challenges you on a message board. I have proven my value with actually being right about many things, you havn't. So you go ahead and take your own advice about your own "message board blogging".

There wont be any new conferences created.
05-07-2015 08:12 AM
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SeaBlue Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Twitter Rumor
(05-04-2015 02:49 PM)omniorange Wrote:  In other words, to get in the AAU now, an institution likely needs to kick down the door, not be knocking on it.

Cheers,
Neil

It's still polite to knock first. If they don't answer after 5-10 years, kick it down :)
05-07-2015 08:53 AM
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CintiFan Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Twitter Rumor
(05-07-2015 08:12 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(05-07-2015 12:16 AM)CintiFan Wrote:  
(05-06-2015 08:23 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  You are wrong, I saw it coming, I even told the folks here that Maryland was a cinch for The Big Ten. You are wrong about Texas and what they want. You think Texas is going to start a new conference and you are saying everyone else is missing the mark? It's not that easy, ever heard of basketball credits?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Basketball credits and exit fees didn't stop teams from leaving conferences last time and they won't next time when the GOR-ending window of opportunity presents itself. Monetary details are just short term obstacles to long term plans. They get worked out, whether somewhat amicably as the old Big East did or via settlement of nasty litigation as the ACC chose.

And clearly most folks who matter, meaning University Presidents and Boards of Trustees, were surprised and not prepared for realignment last time. They will have a plan for next time. Message board bloggers don't count.

They left from conferences that had credits and joined conferences....that have credits. You are talking about leaving conferences that have credits and forming a new conference that has no credits. You are talking about a major blow to the chin right off the bat. Sure they could end up with more in the end but the Networks want to maximize the total value of college sports, not weaken the overall value by cherry picking like that.

You are saying some true statements but none of them actually support the creation of a brand new conference. By trying to make those connections you are creating a logical fallacy.

Your attempt to take a dig at me is amusing but childish. If you wish to be a child dangling on a string, be my guest. I don't know what Presidents and Trustees you are talking about when you make such a generalized statement that has little value due to that generalization but it takes Presidential votes to allow in a new school so guess what...they weren't all that surprised. 07-coffee3

My suggestion to you is not to react emotionally when someone challenges you on a message board. I have proven my value with actually being right about many things, you havn't. So you go ahead and take your own advice about your own "message board blogging".

There wont be any new conferences created.

Chill H1 - just pulling your chain with the last part of my message because it's so unbelievably and predictably easy to do. Maybe buckaineer can show up here and really get the party going.

I know you're a big proponent of Kansas and Oklahoma to the BIG and I'd like to see that as well, but I think that's not the most likely possibility.

The BIG 12 shows no sign so far of finding a solution to its regional reach, lack of 'national' draws other than Texas and OK and inability to expand beyond 10 without severely diluting per team payouts. The 'plan' seems to be either do nothing and hope that helps or dream about FSU, LSU or other teams defecting from more stable conferences to save them. That's not much of a plan.

I used to think that a Big 12 merger with the ACC would be the solution - dissolve both conferences, divide up the teams and get down to 18-20 by allowing a few to leave and then paying off a couple to drop down in conference levels. That requires too much cooperation and too many Presidents in agreement to accomplish. If realignment occurs, it will happen, as last time, because teams are pushed to make decisions or accept the status quo. Last time it was the BIG and Delany as the catalysts and that may happen again. I just don't see the blueblood teams in the BIG 12 or ACC waiting for that to happen again, so instead they'll do what they can to control their own destiny and that's join together to form a new conference. When they lead, others will follow.

Now if JR's conspiracy theory that the networks control the world is true, maybe a new conference is more difficult because both Fox and ESPN must be appeased (unless behind the scenes they illegally collude to divide up the college football world). With the media contracts the new conference could command, basketball credits would be peanuts compared to the football payoff.
05-07-2015 09:02 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Twitter Rumor
First off, I am not a proponent of Oklahoma and Kansas to The Big Ten. It's simply what is going to happen. They certainly are not my choices.

Secondly, I don't know how earning a spiteful response from me is "pulling my chain". I suppose that is similar to someone pulling a chain and getting punched in the face because all I did was explain why your idea was so bad. If you havn't any good ideas and thus must act like all your ideas were really just a joke....well, I cannot argue with that.

In regards to buckaineer? That guy couldn't pull a chain if you put it in his hand for him.

In regards to you bringing out the term "conspiracy theory" in regards to something JR said? That is a term fed to simple folks to give them an easy way out of subjects that are too difficult for them to handle mentally. The Networks hold the purse strings. The conferences don't need to be told what to do. They will do what they find out will cause those strings to loosen the most. That is not a conspiracy theory, that is how things work in this country. It's called money, ever heard of it?
05-07-2015 09:24 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Twitter Rumor
At the end of the day, I favor the idea of consolidation into a Power 4 over more of the same politics between the P5 and G5. Cap the membership in the power group to 16 full members each. Solidify cohesion between the schools. Cooperate on scheduling throughout the various sports, similar to the ACC/B1G Challenge in basketball. Allow an at-large spot in the playoffs for the best team from the non-power group.

Hopefully that would end realignment for decades to come.
05-14-2015 10:41 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Twitter Rumor
I don't think a rule needs to be put in place to cap the conferences at 16 if they move to 16 in the way in which I suggest they will. There will be no more major enticements for movement or pulling up lesser brands. We will have more divisions, tighter rivalries, expanded conference tournaments in football, a slightly expanded national tournament and a set in stone Hierarchy.

All of this will induce increased payments but beyond this, there really isn't anything else that is foreseeable. Expansion to 16 by four of the five majors that includes the fifth major breaking apart is the end game in a natural sense.
05-16-2015 11:55 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Twitter Rumor
Interesting comment from Scott Pierce out of Salt Lake:

http://www.sltrib.com/sports/2526018-155...fullpage=1

I was among those who was overly optimistic about P12N. I thought it would have an easier time getting distribution. I thought it was a great idea for the league to own 100 percent of its network, whereas SECN is co-owned and operated by ESPN and BTN is co-owned and operated by Fox Sports. But ESPN and Fox have used their considerable power to get those channels in a lot more homes than P12N.

In addition, Big Ten ($8-10 million and rising) and SEC ($5 million and rising) member schools just cash big checks; Pac-12 member schools are paying to produce all that high-quality programming on seven separate feeds and getting far less in return.

It's no wonder that Pac-12 member schools are not happy. And talking about change.

Don't be surprised if the league sells a large interest — maybe 49.9 percent — to one cable giant or another.


We could be seeing the wheels finally turn for a lasting settlement within the power conferences.
05-19-2015 10:42 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Twitter Rumor
It wont be ESPN buying into it, it will be Fox.
05-20-2015 01:09 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Twitter Rumor
It would make sense if it's Fox Sports since they're based in Los Angeles.
05-20-2015 08:30 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Twitter Rumor
(05-20-2015 08:30 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  It would make sense if it's Fox Sports since they're based in Los Angeles.

If Fox took the PAC it could open up some interesting options. A 3 x 20 becomes possible if this happens.

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and probably T.C.U. make it 20 for the PAC.

Then it's just a matter of the SEC and Big 10 taking 6 each from the ACC.
(This post was last modified: 05-20-2015 10:05 PM by JRsec.)
05-20-2015 08:59 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Twitter Rumor
From Jon Wilmer, the revenues and expenses of the Pac-12 from FY14:

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespor...ributions/
05-21-2015 09:31 PM
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Post: #54
Twitter Rumor
(05-20-2015 08:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-20-2015 08:30 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  It would make sense if it's Fox Sports since they're based in Los Angeles.

If Fox took the PAC it could open up some interesting options. A 3 x 20 becomes possible if this happens.

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and probably T.C.U. make it 20 for the PAC.

Then it's just a matter of the SEC and Big 10 taking 6 each from the ACC.

Texas will not go west.
05-21-2015 09:36 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Twitter Rumor
PAC commissioner Larry Scott says PAC won't sell share of their network.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...en-and-sec
05-22-2015 05:04 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Twitter Rumor
(05-22-2015 05:04 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  PAC commissioner Larry Scott says PAC won't sell share of their network.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...en-and-sec

It's an interesting piece, although some of the numbers are a bit skewed, the main issue is that if the PAC is able to keep full ownership there is a decent chance that one day they will make more than the SEC and Big 10.

But what this means in the near future is that there won't be any PAC expansion out of the Big 12 or for that matter from nearby Western neighbors. The former because FOX and ESPN will make sure that those properties stay sewed up if not in the Big 12 then assuredly in the Big 10, SEC, or ACC. And the latter won't happen because there are no schools out West that would add value or who would be worth another split of the PACN revenues.
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2015 07:36 PM by JRsec.)
05-22-2015 07:34 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Twitter Rumor
The PAC could still expand out of the Big 12; they just wouldn't be among the six programs that ESPN or Fox would deem the most valuable programs. They may still have enough value, assuming that they provide what the PAC wants in terms of eyeballs in a new time zone and additional valuable content to put on the network, to merit expansion.

It's wait-and-see at this point.
05-23-2015 02:47 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Twitter Rumor
http://1280thezone.com/index.php/story/r...rts_writer

Jon Wilner again saying what we already know, that the likes of Boise State, BYU and San Diego State don't have any chance to join the PAC. He also thinks they should have added Oklahoma and Oklahoma State when they were available and worked out a 14-school schedule.

This to me says the PAC can't effect the outcome of the next major moves so they'll have to deal if they want a chance to keep up with the SEC/B1G.
06-04-2015 06:21 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Twitter Rumor
(06-04-2015 06:21 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  http://1280thezone.com/index.php/story/r...rts_writer

Jon Wilner again saying what we already know, that the likes of Boise State, BYU and San Diego State don't have any chance to join the PAC. He also thinks they should have added Oklahoma and Oklahoma State when they were available and worked out a 14-school schedule.

This to me says the PAC can't effect the outcome of the next major moves so they'll have to deal if they want a chance to keep up with the SEC/B1G.

The old hypothesis about Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech could be viable for four new states and a bridge to the East with central time zone locations, but only if the networks pay more than those 4 are really worth to leverage a piece of the PAC. That's still a dicey move with a product that can't sell but 11 million homes in a footprint as huge as theirs.
06-04-2015 06:55 AM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Twitter Rumor
(06-04-2015 06:55 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(06-04-2015 06:21 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  http://1280thezone.com/index.php/story/r...rts_writer

Jon Wilner again saying what we already know, that the likes of Boise State, BYU and San Diego State don't have any chance to join the PAC. He also thinks they should have added Oklahoma and Oklahoma State when they were available and worked out a 14-school schedule.

This to me says the PAC can't effect the outcome of the next major moves so they'll have to deal if they want a chance to keep up with the SEC/B1G.

The old hypothesis about Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech could be viable for four new states and a bridge to the East with central time zone locations, but only if the networks pay more than those 4 are really worth to leverage a piece of the PAC. That's still a dicey move with a product that can't sell but 11 million homes in a footprint as huge as theirs.

See, this is where you are wrong. Texas Tech, TCU, ISU and KSU are worth more in the PAC than they are in any of the other Major Conferences.

I have explained this thoroughly with the precise math that proves such a hypothesis.

Those would be four Central Time Zone locations that would allow the PAC to finally showcase PAC matchups during the noon Eastern Time slot. That is 90 new time slots a season that the PAC would be available for. That alone merits a substantial pay raise. No other conference has something similar going for them. Unfortunately for them, travel from the East to the West is a real ***** so they aren't going to be able to take full advantage and will have to compromise for the schools I have listed.

Oklahoma State to the West makes sense but I don't think your SEC chooses TCU over Oklahoma State. This isn't Oklahoma State of a couple decades ago. This is an Oklahoma State that has almost cracked the top ten in terms of money brought in by the Athletic Department. That is SEC quality.

In terms of the failure of the PAC Network. They most definitely are going to have to package a partnership in the PAC Network with either FOX or ESPN as part of this maneuver. They can talk tough all they want about it, it's just talk. They need either Fox or ESPN to package the Network with their bundles.
(This post was last modified: 06-04-2015 08:18 AM by He1nousOne.)
06-04-2015 08:17 AM
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