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Has NCAA football reached the breaking point?
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40smokingcannon Offline
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Has NCAA football reached the breaking point?
Sounds like OU AD wants to break up with Texas. Seems like some other relationships around the country are strained and some want to get back with their ex-mates. Twitter fodder about Florida St going to Big 12, etc.

With all that has happened in the last few years has college football reached the breaking point?

Will the upper eschelon break off from the NCAA?
Will they stick with the NCAA but force an *official* upper division?
Will conferences grow, realign or contract?
Should conferences scatter to the wind and realign as more traditional/manageable/sensible alignments?

Look into your crystal ball and tell me what you see.
(This post was last modified: 06-25-2015 08:59 AM by 40smokingcannon.)
06-25-2015 08:58 AM
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jrj84105 Offline
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RE: Has NCAA football reached the breaking point?
Conference alignment is currently a very awkward state of affairs. No conference has it all.
BigXII: Has round robin play. Divisional alignments just suck for conference cohesion.
B1G: Market penetration and distribution optimized.
PAC12: Maximum autonomy- complete ownership of its product.
SEC: $$$

Pursuing each positive generally has a drawback for another goal. Realignment will either progress, regress, or change directions:
Progress: megaconference/league formation (screw cohesion, maximize money through market penetration while achieving greater autonomy)
Regress: members dropped to go back more to the pre-realignment, 10 team historic conference model (screw money, maximize cohesion).
Change direction: Elite teams bouncing out to independence and leaving conference affiliation as a means of bolstering more middling programs (every man for himself to pursue his own priorities).

The regress/screw money option is unlikely to happen unless the Cable/Satellite distribution model collapses.

Texas is the school most likely to initiate the change of direction/every man for himself option. If successful, other schools would follow.

The B1G is the only conference to have the cohesion imbued by shared history and inclusion of like-minded schools to give them the innate cohesion necessary to initiate the move to megaconferences/leagues.

I think it all comes down to Texas weighing independence versus joining a balanced conference with other powers. If Texas (and OU) were to join the B1G, we would be in megaconference mode overnight as there would be no geographic barrier to the B1G reaching the West Coast with additions of very like-minded PAC schools.
06-25-2015 12:31 PM
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lance99 Offline
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Re: RE: Has NCAA football reached the breaking point?
(06-25-2015 12:31 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  Conference alignment is currently a very awkward state of affairs. No conference has it all.
BigXII: Has round robin play. Divisional alignments just suck for conference cohesion.
B1G: Market penetration and distribution optimized.
PAC12: Maximum autonomy- complete ownership of its product.
SEC: $$$

Pursuing each positive generally has a drawback for another goal. Realignment will either progress, regress, or change directions:
Progress: megaconference/league formation (screw cohesion, maximize money through market penetration while achieving greater autonomy)
Regress: members dropped to go back more to the pre-realignment, 10 team historic conference model (screw money, maximize cohesion).
Change direction: Elite teams bouncing out to independence and leaving conference affiliation as a means of bolstering more middling programs (every man for himself to pursue his own priorities).

The regress/screw money option is unlikely to happen unless the Cable/Satellite distribution model collapses.

Texas is the school most likely to initiate the change of direction/every man for himself option. If successful, other schools would follow.

The B1G is the only conference to have the cohesion imbued by shared history and inclusion of like-minded schools to give them the innate cohesion necessary to initiate the move to megaconferences/leagues.

I think it all comes down to Texas weighing independence versus joining a balanced conference with other powers. If Texas (and OU) were to join the B1G, we would be in megaconference mode overnight as there would be no geographic barrier to the B1G reaching the West Coast with additions of very like-minded PAC schools.

The only PAC schools that would consider it would be USC(an maybe) and Stanford(not giving up all that political power in the conference)
06-25-2015 12:43 PM
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jrj84105 Offline
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RE: Has NCAA football reached the breaking point?
(06-25-2015 12:43 PM)lance99 Wrote:  The only PAC schools that would consider it would be USC(an maybe) and Stanford(not giving up all that political power in the conference)
You think PAC schools would look at their network distribution situation, the complete absence of any viable expansion candidates, and the obscene revenues of a transcontinental B1G conference, and opt out if invited en masse?
06-25-2015 01:17 PM
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