Except taking K State is worthless. So that does matter.

(07-03-2015 09:19 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Great thread. A few observations.

The B12's GOR expires two years before the ACC's (2025 vs. 2027). The end of these GORs opens the door to the next potential round of conference realignment. It is interesting that the B12, which is the most unstable of the P5 conferences, is the one that comes in play at the earliest date. Another important date, though, is the expiration of the University of Texas LHN deal with ESPN, which ends in 2031.

Looking at the P5 conferences, it is pretty clear that the B1G, the SEC and the P12 are absolutely secure - they will continue to exist with their existing core members indefinitely. Therefore, there continues to be some gravity for some members of the ACC and B12 to consider moving to one of these other conferences to ensure their long term position in college athletics.

On the other hand, it seems unlikely that the P5 would ever shrink below 4 conferences. Like two people in the woods trying to outrun a bear, the B12 and ACC really only have to outlast the other conference to survive.

Really, Texas is the prize in all of this. Whatever Texas chooses to do is going to be the first domino to fall.

My guess is that both the B1G and the P12 are going to have significant interest in Texas, as they did 5 years ago. I believe the SEC is likely comfortable with their existing position in the State of Texas with A&M on board. They may entertain an approach by Texas, but they are not going to chase them. The other members of the B12, except perhaps OU, are likely to do whatever it takes to keep Texas on board. If the CFP landscape evolves so that independents can have reasonable access to the NY6/CFP bowls, Texas may want to take their football independent, in which case the ACC may be a good landing spot.

Since it came closest to happening last time, my guess is that if Texas does leave the B12, it would be in a group of 4 schools (UT, TTU, OU, and OSU) to the P12. This might establish 16 as the new target conference size. The SEC and B1G are both interested in expanding into the States of North Carolina and Virginia. The B1G would still love to get Notre Dame and was rumored to have interest in Georgia Tech at one point. Of the schools left from the B12, KU would appear to be the only one of potential interest to the B1G.

I personally don't see the SEC or B1G being interested in anyone from the State of North Carolina except UNC. I also don't see UNC ever splitting from Duke. Would either the SEC or B1G be willing to take UNC and Duke as a pair? In the State of Virginia, I do see the SEC interested in either UVA or VT, but the B1G only interested in UVA.

UVA, UNC and Duke are closely aligned and are core members of the ACC. If they all want to stick together, would either the SEC or B1G take them as a group and move to 18? I also see VT as very committed to staying with UVA. I would only see them leaving if UVA were leaving also - so that if UVA were going to the B1G, VT would head for the SEC in a SECond, and the SEC would likely take them.

Curious about folks thoughts.

While I think it is extremely unlikely that this group would move together to either the B1G or the SEC, that alone would probably cause enough dominoes to fall to kill the ACC. Consider this possibility: These four all go as a bloc to the SEC (though unlikely, the SEC can stand the hit to their football depth better than anybody, and this bloc would pull down the average of any P5 conference they were to move to). They are now at 18, and for all practical purposes, done feeding.

The other big dog, the B1G, goes to 16 by adding AAU schools Pitt and Kansas. This leaves both the Big 12 and ACC at nine members. If the Big 12 took 7 ACC teams (Syracuse, Louisville, NC State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Miami) they could add them to West Virginia in a solid eastern division, leaving the 6 Texoma schools plus Kansas State and Iowa State in the west. Now they have 16, the B1G has 16, the SEC has 18 and the PAC has 12 - a total of 62 teams.

With only BC and Wake Forest to vote no, the other ACC schools can vote to dissolve prior to leaving, avoiding all exit fees and cancelling the league's GoR agreement.

It's possible to wind up with a similar result if the four go to the B1G instead of the SEC, but if the SEC goes for FSU and Clemson, GT and Miami become less attractive to the Big 12. That could gum up the works, leaving too few ACC schools willing to vote for dissolution. Somehow, the four southern ACC schools would have to go to the Big 12 as a bloc. If the SEC settled for NC State and Louisville, then the B12 could choose between Syracuse and Cincinnati for its 16th team (Pitt, in this scenario, would be #15).

(07-03-2015 12:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 09:19 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Great thread. A few observations.

The B12's GOR expires two years before the ACC's (2025 vs. 2027). The end of these GORs opens the door to the next potential round of conference realignment. It is interesting that the B12, which is the most unstable of the P5 conferences, is the one that comes in play at the earliest date. Another important date, though, is the expiration of the University of Texas LHN deal with ESPN, which ends in 2031.

Looking at the P5 conferences, it is pretty clear that the B1G, the SEC and the P12 are absolutely secure - they will continue to exist with their existing core members indefinitely. Therefore, there continues to be some gravity for some members of the ACC and B12 to consider moving to one of these other conferences to ensure their long term position in college athletics.

On the other hand, it seems unlikely that the P5 would ever shrink below 4 conferences. Like two people in the woods trying to outrun a bear, the B12 and ACC really only have to outlast the other conference to survive.

Really, Texas is the prize in all of this. Whatever Texas chooses to do is going to be the first domino to fall.

My guess is that both the B1G and the P12 are going to have significant interest in Texas, as they did 5 years ago. I believe the SEC is likely comfortable with their existing position in the State of Texas with A&M on board. They may entertain an approach by Texas, but they are not going to chase them. The other members of the B12, except perhaps OU, are likely to do whatever it takes to keep Texas on board. If the CFP landscape evolves so that independents can have reasonable access to the NY6/CFP bowls, Texas may want to take their football independent, in which case the ACC may be a good landing spot.

Since it came closest to happening last time, my guess is that if Texas does leave the B12, it would be in a group of 4 schools (UT, TTU, OU, and OSU) to the P12. This might establish 16 as the new target conference size. The SEC and B1G are both interested in expanding into the States of North Carolina and Virginia. The B1G would still love to get Notre Dame and was rumored to have interest in Georgia Tech at one point. Of the schools left from the B12, KU would appear to be the only one of potential interest to the B1G.

I personally don't see the SEC or B1G being interested in anyone from the State of North Carolina except UNC. I also don't see UNC ever splitting from Duke. Would either the SEC or B1G be willing to take UNC and Duke as a pair? In the State of Virginia, I do see the SEC interested in either UVA or VT, but the B1G only interested in UVA.

UVA, UNC and Duke are closely aligned and are core members of the ACC. If they all want to stick together, would either the SEC or B1G take them as a group and move to 18? I also see VT as very committed to staying with UVA. I would only see them leaving if UVA were leaving also - so that if UVA were going to the B1G, VT would head for the SEC in a SECond, and the SEC would likely take them.

Curious about folks thoughts.

While I think it is extremely unlikely that this group would move together to either the B1G or the SEC, that alone would probably cause enough dominoes to fall to kill the ACC. Consider this possibility: These four all go as a bloc to the SEC (though unlikely, the SEC can stand the hit to their football depth better than anybody, and this bloc would pull down the average of any P5 conference they were to move to). They are now at 18, and for all practical purposes, done feeding.

The other big dog, the B1G, goes to 16 by adding AAU schools Pitt and Kansas. This leaves both the Big 12 and ACC at nine members. If the Big 12 took 7 ACC teams (Syracuse, Louisville, NC State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Miami) they could add them to West Virginia in a solid eastern division, leaving the 6 Texoma schools plus Kansas State and Iowa State in the west. Now they have 16, the B1G has 16, the SEC has 18 and the PAC has 12 - a total of 62 teams.

With only BC and Wake Forest to vote no, the other ACC schools can vote to dissolve prior to leaving, avoiding all exit fees and cancelling the league's GoR agreement.

It's possible to wind up with a similar result if the four go to the B1G instead of the SEC, but if the SEC goes for FSU and Clemson, GT and Miami become less attractive to the Big 12. That could gum up the works, leaving too few ACC schools willing to vote for dissolution. Somehow, the four southern ACC schools would have to go to the Big 12 as a bloc. If the SEC settled for NC State and Louisville, then the B12 could choose between Syracuse and Cincinnati for its 16th team (Pitt, in this scenario, would be #15).

That's an interesting mix, but I'm not sure that Virginia Tech has to go with Duke, Virginia and North Carolina, but I certainly think Syracuse could (would not have to) go with them. Either of that three plus one could go to either the SEC or Big 10. I've long suspected that if the ACC ever did dissolve and those three were headed to the Big 10 that Notre Dame would finally throw in the towel and go as well. The SEC would still be interested in Virginia Tech, N.C. State, and quite possibly FSU and Clemson to consolidate the area. Even at 20 with Louisville and Georgia Tech, as it was suggested (Louisville excepted and Miami in their place) by Jackie Sherrill way back in 1991, it could make geographical sense, but would be hard pressed to make the other kind of cents.

Given the market bump that the SEC received from Virginia Tech and N.C. State there is a strong chance we would simply choose to stay at 16. Only a brand like Florida State would be tempting at that point. But, then who do we add to go with them if we don't go west to do so? Maybe Georgia Tech for academics, maybe Clemson for a strong regional brand, but that's about it. Quite honestly Slive had worked out a contingency that worked. The SEC would simply take Duke and UNC and stop at 16. If Virginia and Virginia Tech went to the Big 10 then fine. This was discussed at length 3 years ago on some of the SEC sites. It wasn't popular, but it wasn't unpopular either. That way the SEC and Big 10 stop at 16, but not because it is a magical number, just a more profitable one, unless of course somebody loads up on brands.

I would like to have access to a transcript of all of the negotiations that have been going on.
I believe when two things are decided realignment will be over:

1) whether of not Notre Dame will ever join the ACC as a full member

2) which direction Texas decides to go

Then will we know all of the who, what, when how, and why.

The SEC doesn't fit NC academic profile. My thinking on a scenario where the B1G & SEC poach the ACC after the GOR has NC, Duke, Virginia & GT going to the B1G & FSU, Clemson, VT & NC St going to the SEC. Where would ND go? I would expect to see them in the B1G in GT spot. This would leave Miami, GT, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt & BC for the Big 12. If ND doesn't go to the B1G than they would take GT spot in the Big 12. Does the Big 12 go to 18 to match the B1G & SEC? If so then with who? Wake Forest & Cincinnati? This puts their current candidates back on the table.

The problem with this is assuming that the B1G, SEC or the Pac won't offer Texas and/or Oklahoma more money. In assuming that we have the status quo for the next decade. Assuming that ESPN would give up a property that they own outright. It will be interesting to see what kind of deals that ESPN & Fox broker. Which conference will the networks save?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

(07-03-2015 01:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 12:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 09:19 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Great thread. A few observations.

The B12's GOR expires two years before the ACC's (2025 vs. 2027). The end of these GORs opens the door to the next potential round of conference realignment. It is interesting that the B12, which is the most unstable of the P5 conferences, is the one that comes in play at the earliest date. Another important date, though, is the expiration of the University of Texas LHN deal with ESPN, which ends in 2031.

Looking at the P5 conferences, it is pretty clear that the B1G, the SEC and the P12 are absolutely secure - they will continue to exist with their existing core members indefinitely. Therefore, there continues to be some gravity for some members of the ACC and B12 to consider moving to one of these other conferences to ensure their long term position in college athletics.

On the other hand, it seems unlikely that the P5 would ever shrink below 4 conferences. Like two people in the woods trying to outrun a bear, the B12 and ACC really only have to outlast the other conference to survive.

Really, Texas is the prize in all of this. Whatever Texas chooses to do is going to be the first domino to fall.

My guess is that both the B1G and the P12 are going to have significant interest in Texas, as they did 5 years ago. I believe the SEC is likely comfortable with their existing position in the State of Texas with A&M on board. They may entertain an approach by Texas, but they are not going to chase them. The other members of the B12, except perhaps OU, are likely to do whatever it takes to keep Texas on board. If the CFP landscape evolves so that independents can have reasonable access to the NY6/CFP bowls, Texas may want to take their football independent, in which case the ACC may be a good landing spot.

Since it came closest to happening last time, my guess is that if Texas does leave the B12, it would be in a group of 4 schools (UT, TTU, OU, and OSU) to the P12. This might establish 16 as the new target conference size. The SEC and B1G are both interested in expanding into the States of North Carolina and Virginia. The B1G would still love to get Notre Dame and was rumored to have interest in Georgia Tech at one point. Of the schools left from the B12, KU would appear to be the only one of potential interest to the B1G.

I personally don't see the SEC or B1G being interested in anyone from the State of North Carolina except UNC. I also don't see UNC ever splitting from Duke. Would either the SEC or B1G be willing to take UNC and Duke as a pair? In the State of Virginia, I do see the SEC interested in either UVA or VT, but the B1G only interested in UVA.

UVA, UNC and Duke are closely aligned and are core members of the ACC. If they all want to stick together, would either the SEC or B1G take them as a group and move to 18? I also see VT as very committed to staying with UVA. I would only see them leaving if UVA were leaving also - so that if UVA were going to the B1G, VT would head for the SEC in a SECond, and the SEC would likely take them.

Curious about folks thoughts.

While I think it is extremely unlikely that this group would move together to either the B1G or the SEC, that alone would probably cause enough dominoes to fall to kill the ACC. Consider this possibility: These four all go as a bloc to the SEC (though unlikely, the SEC can stand the hit to their football depth better than anybody, and this bloc would pull down the average of any P5 conference they were to move to). They are now at 18, and for all practical purposes, done feeding.

The other big dog, the B1G, goes to 16 by adding AAU schools Pitt and Kansas. This leaves both the Big 12 and ACC at nine members. If the Big 12 took 7 ACC teams (Syracuse, Louisville, NC State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Miami) they could add them to West Virginia in a solid eastern division, leaving the 6 Texoma schools plus Kansas State and Iowa State in the west. Now they have 16, the B1G has 16, the SEC has 18 and the PAC has 12 - a total of 62 teams.

With only BC and Wake Forest to vote no, the other ACC schools can vote to dissolve prior to leaving, avoiding all exit fees and cancelling the league's GoR agreement.

It's possible to wind up with a similar result if the four go to the B1G instead of the SEC, but if the SEC goes for FSU and Clemson, GT and Miami become less attractive to the Big 12. That could gum up the works, leaving too few ACC schools willing to vote for dissolution. Somehow, the four southern ACC schools would have to go to the Big 12 as a bloc. If the SEC settled for NC State and Louisville, then the B12 could choose between Syracuse and Cincinnati for its 16th team (Pitt, in this scenario, would be #15).

That's an interesting mix, but I'm not sure that Virginia Tech has to go with Duke, Virginia and North Carolina, but I certainly think Syracuse could (would not have to) go with them. Either of that three plus one could go to either the SEC or Big 10. I've long suspected that if the ACC ever did dissolve and those three were headed to the Big 10 that Notre Dame would finally throw in the towel and go as well. The SEC would still be interested in Virginia Tech, N.C. State, and quite possibly FSU and Clemson to consolidate the area. Even at 20 with Louisville and Georgia Tech, as it was suggested (Louisville excepted and Miami in their place) by Jackie Sherrill way back in 1991, it could make geographical sense, but would be hard pressed to make the other kind of cents.

Given the market bump that the SEC received from Virginia Tech and N.C. State there is a strong chance we would simply choose to stay at 16. Only a brand like Florida State would be tempting at that point. But, then who do we add to go with them if we don't go west to do so? Maybe Georgia Tech for academics, maybe Clemson for a strong regional brand, but that's about it. Quite honestly Slive had worked out a contingency that worked. The SEC would simply take Duke and UNC and stop at 16. If Virginia and Virginia Tech went to the Big 10 then fine. This was discussed at length 3 years ago on some of the SEC sites. It wasn't popular, but it wasn't unpopular either. That way the SEC and Big 10 stop at 16, but not because it is a magical number, just a more profitable one, unless of course somebody loads up on brands.

One reason I see this kind of scenario as the longest of longshots is that I can't think of a single reason why those four linchpin schools would act preemptively to join the SEC. I could imagine how they might move as a reaction to some other moves. But not as a first strike.

There are threads that posit the breakup of the Big 12 by giving enough of its members a safe landing that you could muster a dissolution vote. But in all those scenarios, there's a lot of dependence on the idea that some predator would be willing to take schools they really don't want in order to make it work. Specifically, that means the PAC 12 would expand eastward by accepting the B12 schools the B1G and SEC don't want. Why would they do that? And if they get to pick first, what's left makes little sense for the other P5's.

And while, in the scenario I posed, most if not all of the ACC schools that find a P5 home add significant value to the conferences, none of it happens unless the schools least likely to put dissolution into motion make the first move. I have yet to see any scenario that would convince me there will be any significant moves for several years. The big question is: do we have the stamina to keep posting more scenarios for that long, or will realignment boards like this go dormant first?

(07-03-2015 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  I would like to have access to a transcript of all of the negotiations that have been going on.
I believe when two things are decided realignment will be over:

1) whether of not Notre Dame will ever join the ACC as a full member

2) which direction Texas decides to go

Then will we know all of the who, what, when how, and why.

I think we know the answer to number 1 in the both the short and long term. For now they have no intention of joining the ACC. Long term, if the league manages to stay together and the landscape changes in such a way as they have to give up their now cherished semi-independence, then yes, they will join the ACC.

The answer to number 2 is the real one waiting to be answered and it will impact conference realignment sometime during the next 10 years. The second part of that question is, will what the Sooners do impact Texas' decision?

Cheers,
Neil

Having played around with team organization on the realignment board, I'm also okay with some NFL-esk mega conferences where the ACC south of the Potomac merges with the SEC, and the southern Big 12. The ACC northern teams, B1G, and Pac-12 would form the other mega conference.

(07-03-2015 03:33 PM)ken d Wrote:  One reason I see this kind of scenario as the longest of longshots is that I can't think of a single reason why those four linchpin schools would act preemptively to join the SEC. I could imagine how they might move as a reaction to some other moves. But not as a first strike.

There are threads that posit the breakup of the Big 12 by giving enough of its members a safe landing that you could muster a dissolution vote. But in all those scenarios, there's a lot of dependence on the idea that some predator would be willing to take schools they really don't want in order to make it work. Specifically, that means the PAC 12 would expand eastward by accepting the B12 schools the B1G and SEC don't want. Why would they do that? And if they get to pick first, what's left makes little sense for the other P5's.

And while, in the scenario I posed, most if not all of the ACC schools that find a P5 home add significant value to the conferences, none of it happens unless the schools least likely to put dissolution into motion make the first move. I have yet to see any scenario that would convince me there will be any significant moves for several years. The big question is: do we have the stamina to keep posting more scenarios for that long, or will realignment boards like this go dormant first?

My thoughts as well. If there is substantive movement prior to the next decade, I think it will be because ESPN and FOX stop working together and decide to have an all-out war over college athletics. OU laying the possible grounds for leaving the B12 might be the first ripple of this coming about, especially if Heinous1 is correct about a B1G expansion with OU and KU.

I began this thread thinking what might happen in just such a scenario (ESPN and FOX parting ways after they had successfully blocked Comcast/NBC from becoming a player).

But, if ESPN/FOX continue to work together, which is what I see likely happening, I don't see major movement, but a piece here or there could be moved. The B1G will get their new huge contract without having to add members, although they still might have some adds. The SECN will continue to grow even without adding any new members, although they also could add members. They will both be fine no matter what.

Cheers,
Neil

(07-03-2015 03:33 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 01:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 12:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 09:19 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Great thread. A few observations.

The B12's GOR expires two years before the ACC's (2025 vs. 2027). The end of these GORs opens the door to the next potential round of conference realignment. It is interesting that the B12, which is the most unstable of the P5 conferences, is the one that comes in play at the earliest date. Another important date, though, is the expiration of the University of Texas LHN deal with ESPN, which ends in 2031.

Looking at the P5 conferences, it is pretty clear that the B1G, the SEC and the P12 are absolutely secure - they will continue to exist with their existing core members indefinitely. Therefore, there continues to be some gravity for some members of the ACC and B12 to consider moving to one of these other conferences to ensure their long term position in college athletics.

On the other hand, it seems unlikely that the P5 would ever shrink below 4 conferences. Like two people in the woods trying to outrun a bear, the B12 and ACC really only have to outlast the other conference to survive.

Really, Texas is the prize in all of this. Whatever Texas chooses to do is going to be the first domino to fall.

My guess is that both the B1G and the P12 are going to have significant interest in Texas, as they did 5 years ago. I believe the SEC is likely comfortable with their existing position in the State of Texas with A&M on board. They may entertain an approach by Texas, but they are not going to chase them. The other members of the B12, except perhaps OU, are likely to do whatever it takes to keep Texas on board. If the CFP landscape evolves so that independents can have reasonable access to the NY6/CFP bowls, Texas may want to take their football independent, in which case the ACC may be a good landing spot.

Since it came closest to happening last time, my guess is that if Texas does leave the B12, it would be in a group of 4 schools (UT, TTU, OU, and OSU) to the P12. This might establish 16 as the new target conference size. The SEC and B1G are both interested in expanding into the States of North Carolina and Virginia. The B1G would still love to get Notre Dame and was rumored to have interest in Georgia Tech at one point. Of the schools left from the B12, KU would appear to be the only one of potential interest to the B1G.

I personally don't see the SEC or B1G being interested in anyone from the State of North Carolina except UNC. I also don't see UNC ever splitting from Duke. Would either the SEC or B1G be willing to take UNC and Duke as a pair? In the State of Virginia, I do see the SEC interested in either UVA or VT, but the B1G only interested in UVA.

UVA, UNC and Duke are closely aligned and are core members of the ACC. If they all want to stick together, would either the SEC or B1G take them as a group and move to 18? I also see VT as very committed to staying with UVA. I would only see them leaving if UVA were leaving also - so that if UVA were going to the B1G, VT would head for the SEC in a SECond, and the SEC would likely take them.

Curious about folks thoughts.

While I think it is extremely unlikely that this group would move together to either the B1G or the SEC, that alone would probably cause enough dominoes to fall to kill the ACC. Consider this possibility: These four all go as a bloc to the SEC (though unlikely, the SEC can stand the hit to their football depth better than anybody, and this bloc would pull down the average of any P5 conference they were to move to). They are now at 18, and for all practical purposes, done feeding.

The other big dog, the B1G, goes to 16 by adding AAU schools Pitt and Kansas. This leaves both the Big 12 and ACC at nine members. If the Big 12 took 7 ACC teams (Syracuse, Louisville, NC State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson and Miami) they could add them to West Virginia in a solid eastern division, leaving the 6 Texoma schools plus Kansas State and Iowa State in the west. Now they have 16, the B1G has 16, the SEC has 18 and the PAC has 12 - a total of 62 teams.

With only BC and Wake Forest to vote no, the other ACC schools can vote to dissolve prior to leaving, avoiding all exit fees and cancelling the league's GoR agreement.

It's possible to wind up with a similar result if the four go to the B1G instead of the SEC, but if the SEC goes for FSU and Clemson, GT and Miami become less attractive to the Big 12. That could gum up the works, leaving too few ACC schools willing to vote for dissolution. Somehow, the four southern ACC schools would have to go to the Big 12 as a bloc. If the SEC settled for NC State and Louisville, then the B12 could choose between Syracuse and Cincinnati for its 16th team (Pitt, in this scenario, would be #15).

That's an interesting mix, but I'm not sure that Virginia Tech has to go with Duke, Virginia and North Carolina, but I certainly think Syracuse could (would not have to) go with them. Either of that three plus one could go to either the SEC or Big 10. I've long suspected that if the ACC ever did dissolve and those three were headed to the Big 10 that Notre Dame would finally throw in the towel and go as well. The SEC would still be interested in Virginia Tech, N.C. State, and quite possibly FSU and Clemson to consolidate the area. Even at 20 with Louisville and Georgia Tech, as it was suggested (Louisville excepted and Miami in their place) by Jackie Sherrill way back in 1991, it could make geographical sense, but would be hard pressed to make the other kind of cents.

Given the market bump that the SEC received from Virginia Tech and N.C. State there is a strong chance we would simply choose to stay at 16. Only a brand like Florida State would be tempting at that point. But, then who do we add to go with them if we don't go west to do so? Maybe Georgia Tech for academics, maybe Clemson for a strong regional brand, but that's about it. Quite honestly Slive had worked out a contingency that worked. The SEC would simply take Duke and UNC and stop at 16. If Virginia and Virginia Tech went to the Big 10 then fine. This was discussed at length 3 years ago on some of the SEC sites. It wasn't popular, but it wasn't unpopular either. That way the SEC and Big 10 stop at 16, but not because it is a magical number, just a more profitable one, unless of course somebody loads up on brands.

One reason I see this kind of scenario as the longest of longshots is that I can't think of a single reason why those four linchpin schools would act preemptively to join the SEC. I could imagine how they might move as a reaction to some other moves. But not as a first strike.

There are threads that posit the breakup of the Big 12 by giving enough of its members a safe landing that you could muster a dissolution vote. But in all those scenarios, there's a lot of dependence on the idea that some predator would be willing to take schools they really don't want in order to make it work. Specifically, that means the PAC 12 would expand eastward by accepting the B12 schools the B1G and SEC don't want. Why would they do that? And if they get to pick first, what's left makes little sense for the other P5's.

And while, in the scenario I posed, most if not all of the ACC schools that find a P5 home add significant value to the conferences, none of it happens unless the schools least likely to put dissolution into motion make the first move. I have yet to see any scenario that would convince me there will be any significant moves for several years. The big question is: do we have the stamina to keep posting more scenarios for that long, or will realignment boards like this go dormant first?

The catalyst will be simple Ken D. No network coupled with a growing chasm in revenue between the Big 10 / SEC and the ACC that borders both. If any school, especially when state funding is being cut, and Federal grant money is getting tighter, faces real budget cuts while one conference away athletic programs are making 8 figures more the desire is planted. So in that case the most desirable schools leave first and negotiate to bring along those most important to them in their associations. So if UNC decides to make 8 figures more and they want Virginia and Duke to travel with them voila. Then it's everyone for themselves after that. But then there is no history of selfish conduct by these institutions to support such a hypothesis is there.........well maybe just.......a helluva lot!

UNC and NC State share the same Board of Governors. While the UNC-Ch element is strong enough to prevent NC State from moving outright, the NC State element is strong enough to prevent a UNC-Ch move that puts NC State anywhere other than in SEC or B10.

The problem that exists for VT, UNC, NC State, Duke, and UVa, is that their fan bases do not necessarily match their academic mission and university organization. NC State and VT are both set up like B10 schools like Purdue - hard graduate research comes first. UNC and UVa don't have some of those hard sciences and in that sense neither are like a B10 institution as they are not STEM nor are they cow-college. Duke is set up like an Ivy league school with only Northwestern being similar in the B10 and Vandy in the SEC.

UVa and UNC are not "southern" schools from the aspect of where they place emphasis on their sports - they are eastern. VT and NC State are more southern, yet both could easily appear to have been magically transported from West Layfaette or Happy Valley. None of the 5 can raise enough money to compete in the top third of the SEC or B10 in football. Because tapping a pure UNC or VT donor is more difficult than it looks. Many of the big dogs have seen their children and grandchildren interbreed to the point of creating mishmashes.

The wife and I have 5 donations last year (what a pain in the ass). I would not be caught dead giving money to UNC-Ch sports, but we both donate to the Graduate Library and to the Med School. I don't mind giving money to NC State athletics but hell would freeze over before I gave money to the IKEA/Scandinavian inspired Graduate Library that looks like a damn metal egg landed from space. Then there are the Vet schools at State and VT. Duke want's money for the Children's hospital.

While I agree with JR that money pressures may come and come hard, I don't know how you tease these relationships out without some serious collusion between the parties and the legislature in VA and NC can interfere.

My guess is that they decide to play on and make less money. That may seem crazy to others, especially those outside VA and NC, but that's where I would put my money.

An extra $20 million a year is no good if you can't compete on the football field with Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisky, Nebraska, Bama, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Bama, and TAMU. You could add $35 million a year to NC State, UNC, UVa, Duke, WF and still not get a football program that can go toe to toe with the 11 above. Fundamental parts of the six universities would have to change to accommodate who you have to recruit and keep eligible. The rank and file students will not support those changes and to make it work, everyone has to buy in to the hypocrisy.

All that said VT and NC State make the most logical trades to the B10 not the SEC - as they are cow college stems. Then the ACC and SEC would split up Texas, Kansas, OU, TCU, WVA, etc.

(07-03-2015 04:38 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  An extra $20 million a year is no good if you can't compete on the football field with Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisky, Nebraska, Bama, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Bama, and TAMU. You could add $35 million a year to NC State, UNC, UVa, Duke, WF and still not get a football program that can go toe to toe with the 11 above. Fundamental parts of the six universities would have to change to accommodate who you have to recruit and keep eligible. The rank and file students will not support those changes and to make it work, everyone has to buy in to the hypocrisy.

All that said VT and NC State make the most logical trades to the B10 not the SEC - as they are cow college stems. Then the ACC and SEC would split up Texas, Kansas, OU, TCU, WVA, etc.

I guess you missed my post on the other board where I talked about academic partnerships. Auburn partners with Purdue for aerospace engineering and now with Virginia Tech for osteopathic veterinary medicine. We do research here in Vet Med and in Engineering. We just don't have a medical school or law school. No lawyers is a plus and U.A.B. serves as one of the two medical colleges in the state of Alabama. South Alabama is the other.

(07-03-2015 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 04:38 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  An extra $20 million a year is no good if you can't compete on the football field with Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisky, Nebraska, Bama, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Bama, and TAMU. You could add $35 million a year to NC State, UNC, UVa, Duke, WF and still not get a football program that can go toe to toe with the 11 above. Fundamental parts of the six universities would have to change to accommodate who you have to recruit and keep eligible. The rank and file students will not support those changes and to make it work, everyone has to buy in to the hypocrisy.

All that said VT and NC State make the most logical trades to the B10 not the SEC - as they are cow college stems. Then the ACC and SEC would split up Texas, Kansas, OU, TCU, WVA, etc.

I guess you missed my post on the other board where I talked about academic partnerships. Auburn partners with Purdue for aerospace engineering and now with Virginia Tech for osteopathic veterinary medicine. We do research here in Vet Med and in Engineering. We just don't have a medical school or law school. No lawyers is a plus and U.A.B. serves as one of the two medical colleges in the state of Alabama. South Alabama is the other.

No, I read what you wrote about Auburn earlier. I would have thought that you would have paired with UT or Georgia for your vets. The reason that I don't lump Clemson and Auburn in with NC State or VT is that heretofore I have not found either university filled to the brim with B10 educated professors and large numbers of directionally challenged Yankees that have found their way from NJ, MD, PA, and what-not to Clemson or Auburn.

It's somewhat unscientific, but I just don't get any "Yankee" vibe from your coed. (Yes a very sexist observation). VT's and NC State's girls do not give off the same vibe as you get from Clemson, UGA, Auburn, etc.

NC State and VT have both taken recent steps over the last decade to become as Purduish as possible - just follow the top hires.

(07-03-2015 06:58 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 04:38 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  An extra $20 million a year is no good if you can't compete on the football field with Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisky, Nebraska, Bama, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Bama, and TAMU. You could add $35 million a year to NC State, UNC, UVa, Duke, WF and still not get a football program that can go toe to toe with the 11 above. Fundamental parts of the six universities would have to change to accommodate who you have to recruit and keep eligible. The rank and file students will not support those changes and to make it work, everyone has to buy in to the hypocrisy.

All that said VT and NC State make the most logical trades to the B10 not the SEC - as they are cow college stems. Then the ACC and SEC would split up Texas, Kansas, OU, TCU, WVA, etc.

I guess you missed my post on the other board where I talked about academic partnerships. Auburn partners with Purdue for aerospace engineering and now with Virginia Tech for osteopathic veterinary medicine. We do research here in Vet Med and in Engineering. We just don't have a medical school or law school. No lawyers is a plus and U.A.B. serves as one of the two medical colleges in the state of Alabama. South Alabama is the other.

No, I read what you wrote about Auburn earlier. I would have thought that you would have paired with UT or Georgia for your vets. The reason that I don't lump Clemson and Auburn in with NC State or VT is that heretofore I have not found either university filled to the brim with B10 educated professors and large numbers of directionally challenged Yankees that have found their way from NJ, MD, PA, and what-not to Clemson or Auburn.

It's somewhat unscientific, but I just don't get any "Yankee" vibe from your coed. (Yes a very sexist observation). VT's and NC State's girls do not give off the same vibe as you get from Clemson, UGA, Auburn, etc.

NC State and VT have both taken recent steps over the last decade to become as Purduish as possible - just follow the top hires.

Gee that's interesting. I guess Cornell PHD's aren't good enough to classify in Vet Med at Auburn. Especially female ones. But one must remember that until the last 20 years most Vet Med was large animal and dominated by men for a reason, strength. But I guess you wouldn't know about that either. Try again.

(07-03-2015 03:36 PM)omniorange Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  I would like to have access to a transcript of all of the negotiations that have been going on.
I believe when two things are decided realignment will be over:

1) whether of not Notre Dame will ever join the ACC as a full member

2) which direction Texas decides to go

Then will we know all of the who, what, when how, and why.

I think we know the answer to number 1 in the both the short and long term. For now they have no intention of joining the ACC. Long term, if the league manages to stay together and the landscape changes in such a way as they have to give up their now cherished semi-independence, then yes, they will join the ACC.

The answer to number 2 is the real one waiting to be answered and it will impact conference realignment sometime during the next 10 years. The second part of that question is, will what the Sooners do impact Texas' decision?

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, when the all of the schools in the ACC finally come to the realization that Notre Dame isn't going to commit for full football membership, they might still only add 1 ( just in case).
Swofford would be smart to adopt your idea of a sixth game annually from Notre Dame matched with Miami.

(07-03-2015 08:20 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 03:36 PM)omniorange Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  I would like to have access to a transcript of all of the negotiations that have been going on.
I believe when two things are decided realignment will be over:

1) whether of not Notre Dame will ever join the ACC as a full member

2) which direction Texas decides to go

Then will we know all of the who, what, when how, and why.

I think we know the answer to number 1 in the both the short and long term. For now they have no intention of joining the ACC. Long term, if the league manages to stay together and the landscape changes in such a way as they have to give up their now cherished semi-independence, then yes, they will join the ACC.

The answer to number 2 is the real one waiting to be answered and it will impact conference realignment sometime during the next 10 years. The second part of that question is, will what the Sooners do impact Texas' decision?

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, when the all of the schools in the ACC finally come to the realization that Notre Dame isn't going to commit for full football membership, they might still only add 1 ( just in case).
Swofford would be smart to adopt your idea of a sixth game annually from Notre Dame matched with Miami.

Hail XLance,

And it wouldn't hurt to adopt my idea of 15 teams (preferably with WVU, since they are the most realistic option) and a 2-6-6 scheduling model as well.

But I doubt it happens.

It's okay though if the sports gods get SU into the CFP in the next 5 years and another NCAA bb championship in the next 3.


Neil

(07-03-2015 08:42 PM)omniorange Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 08:20 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 03:36 PM)omniorange Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  I would like to have access to a transcript of all of the negotiations that have been going on.
I believe when two things are decided realignment will be over:

1) whether of not Notre Dame will ever join the ACC as a full member

2) which direction Texas decides to go

Then will we know all of the who, what, when how, and why.

I think we know the answer to number 1 in the both the short and long term. For now they have no intention of joining the ACC. Long term, if the league manages to stay together and the landscape changes in such a way as they have to give up their now cherished semi-independence, then yes, they will join the ACC.

The answer to number 2 is the real one waiting to be answered and it will impact conference realignment sometime during the next 10 years. The second part of that question is, will what the Sooners do impact Texas' decision?

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, when the all of the schools in the ACC finally come to the realization that Notre Dame isn't going to commit for full football membership, they might still only add 1 ( just in case).
Swofford would be smart to adopt your idea of a sixth game annually from Notre Dame matched with Miami.

Hail XLance,

And it wouldn't hurt to adopt my idea of 15 teams (preferably with WVU, since they are the most realistic option) and a 2-6-6 scheduling model as well.

But I doubt it happens.

It's okay though if the sports gods get SU into the CFP in the next 5 years and another NCAA bb championship in the next 3.


Neil

Actually Neil if the Big 12 adds Houston, Cincinnati, and Central Florida and begins a debate between Memphis, Colorado State and some others they could be in for a surprise in August anyway. As long as ESPN and FOX have a minimum of 10 schools and choose to honor the contract for the duration then technically it would be hard to prove damages if Oklahoma left for the SEC, Kansas left for the Big 10, and Texas left for the PAC. West Virginia could move onto the ACC and the Big 12 would simply choose one of the latter and move on. If any conference then desires to go to 16 they would be free to choose whomever they pleased from the remainder of all schools without having to take anyone's little brother unless they found value in them. The Gordian knot is now untied, or cut, depending upon your favorite ending. The Big 10 could then select anyone they wanted as #16 and everyone back fills. The SEC could take a second Texas school or pick up Kansas State. I figure if the PAC takes Texas they will wind up with Texas Tech and likely one other anyway. If the ACC wants to move to 16 you hold that slot for N.D. as long as you would like to hold it.

KU, OU, and UT don't have to feel guilty. And no conference is beholden to rescue the remaining Big 12 schools none of which would ever have been paid 25.6 million a year without Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas hanging around.

(07-03-2015 07:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 06:58 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 06:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 04:38 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  An extra $20 million a year is no good if you can't compete on the football field with Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisky, Nebraska, Bama, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Bama, and TAMU. You could add $35 million a year to NC State, UNC, UVa, Duke, WF and still not get a football program that can go toe to toe with the 11 above. Fundamental parts of the six universities would have to change to accommodate who you have to recruit and keep eligible. The rank and file students will not support those changes and to make it work, everyone has to buy in to the hypocrisy.

All that said VT and NC State make the most logical trades to the B10 not the SEC - as they are cow college stems. Then the ACC and SEC would split up Texas, Kansas, OU, TCU, WVA, etc.

I guess you missed my post on the other board where I talked about academic partnerships. Auburn partners with Purdue for aerospace engineering and now with Virginia Tech for osteopathic veterinary medicine. We do research here in Vet Med and in Engineering. We just don't have a medical school or law school. No lawyers is a plus and U.A.B. serves as one of the two medical colleges in the state of Alabama. South Alabama is the other.

No, I read what you wrote about Auburn earlier. I would have thought that you would have paired with UT or Georgia for your vets. The reason that I don't lump Clemson and Auburn in with NC State or VT is that heretofore I have not found either university filled to the brim with B10 educated professors and large numbers of directionally challenged Yankees that have found their way from NJ, MD, PA, and what-not to Clemson or Auburn.

It's somewhat unscientific, but I just don't get any "Yankee" vibe from your coed. (Yes a very sexist observation). VT's and NC State's girls do not give off the same vibe as you get from Clemson, UGA, Auburn, etc.

NC State and VT have both taken recent steps over the last decade to become as Purduish as possible - just follow the top hires.

Gee that's interesting. I guess Cornell PHD's aren't good enough to classify in Vet Med at Auburn. Especially female ones. But one must remember that until the last 20 years most Vet Med was large animal and dominated by men for a reason, strength. But I guess you wouldn't know about that either. Try again.

What do you mean by "classify"? I would not be surprised that someone with a PhD from Cornell went to Vet School at Auburn - you have a good vet school. But a handful of Yankee girls doesn't make Auburn a "Yankee Girl" campus.

You seem personally insulted - I don't get it. I thought I clearly implied that your and Clemson's coeds were more attractive than NC State's or VT's. Was that not a clear takeaway? State's and VT's are better looking than Duke's, but not as good looking as Auburn's or Clemson's.

(07-03-2015 08:50 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 08:42 PM)omniorange Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 08:20 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 03:36 PM)omniorange Wrote:  

(07-03-2015 02:29 PM)XLance Wrote:  I would like to have access to a transcript of all of the negotiations that have been going on.
I believe when two things are decided realignment will be over:

1) whether of not Notre Dame will ever join the ACC as a full member

2) which direction Texas decides to go

Then will we know all of the who, what, when how, and why.

I think we know the answer to number 1 in the both the short and long term. For now they have no intention of joining the ACC. Long term, if the league manages to stay together and the landscape changes in such a way as they have to give up their now cherished semi-independence, then yes, they will join the ACC.

The answer to number 2 is the real one waiting to be answered and it will impact conference realignment sometime during the next 10 years. The second part of that question is, will what the Sooners do impact Texas' decision?

Cheers,
Neil

Neil, when the all of the schools in the ACC finally come to the realization that Notre Dame isn't going to commit for full football membership, they might still only add 1 ( just in case).
Swofford would be smart to adopt your idea of a sixth game annually from Notre Dame matched with Miami.

Hail XLance,

And it wouldn't hurt to adopt my idea of 15 teams (preferably with WVU, since they are the most realistic option) and a 2-6-6 scheduling model as well.

But I doubt it happens.

It's okay though if the sports gods get SU into the CFP in the next 5 years and another NCAA bb championship in the next 3.


Neil

Actually Neil if the Big 12 adds Houston, Cincinnati, and Central Florida and begins a debate between Memphis, Colorado State and some others they could be in for a surprise in August anyway. As long as ESPN and FOX have a minimum of 10 schools and choose to honor the contract for the duration then technically it would be hard to prove damages if Oklahoma left for the SEC, Kansas left for the Big 10, and Texas left for the PAC. West Virginia could move onto the ACC and the Big 12 would simply choose one of the latter and move on. If any conference then desires to go to 16 they would be free to choose whomever they pleased from the remainder of all schools without having to take anyone's little brother unless they found value in them. The Gordian knot is now untied, or cut, depending upon your favorite ending. The Big 10 could then select anyone they wanted as #16 and everyone back fills. The SEC could take a second Texas school or pick up Kansas State. I figure if the PAC takes Texas they will wind up with Texas Tech and likely one other anyway. If the ACC wants to move to 16 you hold that slot for N.D. as long as you would like to hold it.

KU, OU, and UT don't have to feel guilty. And no conference is beholden to rescue the remaining Big 12 schools none of which would ever have been paid 25.6 million a year without Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas hanging around.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas State make a nice pod