And we're all left fighting over the scraps that the benevolent P5 has left

(10-17-2015 07:07 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 07:02 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The problem to see is that what if Toledo, Houston, Temple, Navy and Memphis all gets 2 loses at the end of the season?

Add Utah State and Boise State back in the picture.

MWC Mountain division is very good except for Wyoming.

There are also Marshall, Western Kentucky, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State all sitting out there 1 loss yet too.

WKU has that shot against LSU yet which could change the conversation.

LSU is going to destroy WKU

(10-17-2015 03:37 PM)MidnightBlueGold Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing with the AAC that is amazing is they've had a great season no doubt- but they've also had 3 games where they lost by a TD or less. Also they've had shots against some teams where they wound up losing by 10-14 points. The AAC could have been even stronger this year.

Wait, wait, wait...AAC fans are always playing the "it doesn't matter how close of a loss it was, it's still a loss" card.

(10-17-2015 03:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:12 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:09 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It's a team thing not a conference thing- so that's why Toledo has a shot if all of Memphis, Temple, and Houston lose. But really now Toledo is the ONLY fly in the ointment for the AAC.

I mean, I know what you are saying and I understand it, but Toledo is now going to disappear from the spotlight for 6 weeks. With the way the AAC performed out of conference, the perception down the stretch will just increase. Right or not, perception is everything in college football.

Umm....Toledo is sitting in the Top 25 of the polls this week.

They won't disappear.

And the AAC could easily have 3 top 25 teams this week- and very possibly all 3 be ahead of Toledo.

No. Temple & Houston will not jump Toledo. None of their wins (Toledo, Houston, or Temple) were against impressive opponents.

There is a mathamatic possibility all 3 could, so we can't count them out

Time to start talking CFP? What is the formula to get in if you are the AAC?

(10-17-2015 10:21 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Time to start talking CFP? What is the formula to get in if you are the AAC?

Formula is Memphis and Temple win out till they face each other, then the winner of that wins out.

Yes, Memphis has landed the P5 win they needed to hit the inside track ... but they still don't have that track to themselves.

(10-17-2015 11:39 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Yes, Memphis has landed the P5 win they needed to hit the inside track ... but they still don't have that track to themselves.

But the AAC does have the inside track. If Houston, Memphis, or Temple win out, they are in pretty much no matter what now.

(10-17-2015 11:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 11:39 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Yes, Memphis has landed the P5 win they needed to hit the inside track ... but they still don't have that track to themselves.

But the AAC does have the inside track. If Houston, Memphis, or Temple win out, they are in pretty much no matter what now.

And well they should, because any of them doing that is still quite challenging ... which is also why its quite possible none of them will. It would not be at all surprising if the AAC CCG pits two one-loss teams against each other.

What if both Toledo and an AAC school like Houston go unbeaten? The access bowl would have trouble choosen. Houston is a well known school. Toledo in the MAC. Houston would get in because they were a former P5 like school from the SWC.

(10-18-2015 12:06 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 11:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 11:39 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Yes, Memphis has landed the P5 win they needed to hit the inside track ... but they still don't have that track to themselves.

But the AAC does have the inside track. If Houston, Memphis, or Temple win out, they are in pretty much no matter what now.

And well they should, because any of them doing that is still quite challenging ... which is also why its quite possible none of them will. It would not be at all surprising if the AAC CCG pits two one-loss teams against each other.

True. And the ONLY thing that could keep that team out of the G5 slot is an undefeated Toledo team. Sorry but none of the foolishness saying that 2 loss team could beat that. Because that's all it is- foolishness.

(10-17-2015 10:15 PM)Piratelife4me Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:37 PM)MidnightBlueGold Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing with the AAC that is amazing is they've had a great season no doubt- but they've also had 3 games where they lost by a TD or less. Also they've had shots against some teams where they wound up losing by 10-14 points. The AAC could have been even stronger this year.

Wait, wait, wait...AAC fans are always playing the "it doesn't matter how close of a loss it was, it's still a loss" card.

(10-17-2015 03:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:12 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 03:09 PM)stxrunner Wrote:  I mean, I know what you are saying and I understand it, but Toledo is now going to disappear from the spotlight for 6 weeks. With the way the AAC performed out of conference, the perception down the stretch will just increase. Right or not, perception is everything in college football.

Umm....Toledo is sitting in the Top 25 of the polls this week.

They won't disappear.

And the AAC could easily have 3 top 25 teams this week- and very possibly all 3 be ahead of Toledo.

No. Temple & Houston will not jump Toledo. None of their wins (Toledo, Houston, or Temple) were against impressive opponents.

There is a mathamatic possibility all 3 could, so we can't count them out

Stop the madness. All three AAC schools will not jump Toledo. Memphis has the best shot at doing it. UH and Temple has no shot at all. But no doubt UH will remain ranked and Memphis and Temple will join them in the AP poll. Sorry, the Coaches Poll hold no weight with me and apparently not with ESPN, Fox, CBS or any other major sport outlet.

You guys still talking about weeks 1-7?

Old stuff...

lol at someone saying that it's no lock that Memphis will pass Toledo this week.

(10-18-2015 04:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  lol at someone saying that it's no lock that Memphis will pass Toledo this week.

It's a lock. The Access spot is now clearly Memphis's to lose.

(10-18-2015 04:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  lol at someone saying that it's no lock that Memphis will pass Toledo this week.

TBF, he did say "the best shot". 100% lock would indeed be the "best shot".

(10-17-2015 02:50 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Its looking promising for Memphis but the G5 access bowl will always go down to the wire following the conference championship game.

Possibly going into the AAC championship game it will feature 2 undefeated teams which would lock the autobid up for the AAC but we are far from knowing that at this juncture.

It is not likely that the AAC will have any undefeated teams going into the Championship game.

Temple has to play ECU, Notre Dame and Memphis.

Memphis and Houston have to play each other as well as Navy. People forget that Navy's only loss is to Notre Dame.

(10-18-2015 08:15 AM)PirateMarv Wrote:  

(10-17-2015 02:50 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  Its looking promising for Memphis but the G5 access bowl will always go down to the wire following the conference championship game.

Possibly going into the AAC championship game it will feature 2 undefeated teams which would lock the autobid up for the AAC but we are far from knowing that at this juncture.

It is not likely that the AAC will have any undefeated teams going into the Championship game.

Temple has to play ECU, Notre Dame and Memphis.

Memphis and Houston have to play each other as well as Navy. People forget that Navy's only loss is to Notre Dame.

AAC's worst nightmare is for ECU to run the table the rest of the way. I wouldn't be shocked if we were a 1-point favorite or so against Temple this Thursday night at home & we will likely be favored in every game after that if we beat Temple.

ECU's remaining schedule:

Temple
@UCONN
USF
@UCF
Cincy

If ECU does run the table to get in the championship game then all bets are off. In '08 & '09 ECU was the underdog in the championship game and won it back-to-back.

A 10-3 ECU team would be a quality team with road losses to 3 quality teams (including close last second loses on the road to Florida & BYU) and wins over VT, a ranked Temple & a pretty good UC along with a really good win over the Western champ. However, even if ECU defeats a top-10 Memphis in the championship game I think ECU would need Toledo to lose the MAC championship game & would likely need WKU to drop one more as well. Also, a 2-loss Boise could get in although the strength of the AAC may be enough for ECU to get in over a 2-loss BSU after their embarrassing loss the other day.

Wow, thanks for all the discussion guys. That's what a message board is for!

I'll try to keep the OP updated as the season goes on, if people care to check it out.

I agree that with Memphis win yesterday, they are in the lead, with Toledo slightly behind. However, if Utah State wins out, with a loss or two of the AAC champ, they have a high chance of getting the spot. They still have BYU at the end of the year before the MWC championship game who took out 3 AAC teams.

Georgia Southern plays @ Appalachian State and @ Georgia...we win out and I like our chances at 11-1.