If I remember correctly, the IBD poll has been the one that has been the closest to being correct the last 3 or 4 elections.

So I would rely on that one a little more heavily.

However, all that it may prove is that Trump may win the popular vote, but still loose the election.

(11-07-2016 11:40 AM)muffinman Wrote:  If I remember correctly, the IBD poll has been the one that has been the closest to being correct the last 3 or 4 elections.

So I would rely on that one a little more heavily.

However, all that it may prove is that Trump may win the popular vote, but still loose the election.

I think the opposite is more likely. He is getting beat much worse in Democratic states than Hillary is in Republican states.

Actually I think ABC/WaPo was the most accurate in 2012, and IBD/TIPP second. Anyway, Monmouth just released a national poll showing Hillary +6 so I'll add it to my list here. I'll try to update them to my final list here as they come in.

Monmouth: Hillary +6
Bloomberg/Selzer: Hillary +3
New Orleans Times-Picayune: Hillary +5
Fox News: Hillary +4
IBD/TIPP: Trump +2
CBS/NYT: Hillary +4
Rasmussen: Hillary +2
LAT/USC: Trump +5
UPI/CVOTER: Hillary +3
NBC/SurveyMonkey: Hillary +6
Politico/Morning Consult: Hillary +3
NBC/WSJ: Hillary +4
ABC/WaPo: Hillary +4
Boston Herald/RKM: Hillary +3
Reuters/Ipsos: Hillary +4
McClatchy/Marist: Hillary +1
Breitbart/Gravis: Hillary +2
YouGov: Hillary +3
RAND: Hillary +9
Google Consumer Surveys: Hillary +3

(11-07-2016 11:39 AM)Max Power Wrote:  But it's the best system we have, that's available to the public anyway.

The best system would be to poll an equal number of Democrats and Republicans, given that even polling experts have admitted that they have no way to predict which party will outperform the other in any given election.

That's a horrible idea because we're not 50/50 and that number changes daily.

More than 3 million early voters in NC so far

"North Carolina's elections board says more than 45 percent of the state’s nearly 7 million registered voters have already cast their ballots ahead of election day, with Democrats and Republicans turning out in roughly equal proportions.

The State Board of Elections said Sunday that almost 3.1 million of North Carolina’s nearly 6.9 million registered voters have made their choices at early-voting location or by mail-in absentee ballots. That’s a double-digit increase over the early voting period during the last presidential election in 2012.

But percentages for Democratic and black voters remained lower compared to four years ago. Blacks comprised 22 percent of the early vote compared to 27 percent during the last presidential election, when Republican Mitt Romney won the state."

The black vote never going to match 08 and 12 when the first black president was on the ballot, but the women vote and Hispanic vote (thanks Trump!) should make up for that.

the Hispanic vote? yeah right, and this is coming from a Hispanic.

(11-07-2016 11:45 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 11:40 AM)muffinman Wrote:  If I remember correctly, the IBD poll has been the one that has been the closest to being correct the last 3 or 4 elections.

So I would rely on that one a little more heavily.

However, all that it may prove is that Trump may win the popular vote, but still loose the election.

I think the opposite is more likely. He is getting beat much worse in Democratic states than Hillary is in Republican states.

Not necessarily. NY, NJ, New England, and the Rust Belt (win or lose) are much more favorable to Trump than they were to Romney. I'd also like to see a new Oregon poll come out as he was within 7 a couple of weeks ago.

Hillary does seem to be creaming him in California worse than 4 years ago and she is also doing better in the South, including Texas, but I don't know that, in the aggregate, your statement is correct.

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/s...ide-107067

Clinton’s 30-point lead in Florida Hispanic poll is ‘terrifying’ to GOP nationwide
By MARC CAPUTO 11/03/16 06:41 PM EDT
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MIAMI — Hillary Clinton is besting Donald Trump by an historic 30-point margin among Florida Hispanics, according to a new bipartisan poll that indicates Latinos could play an outsized role in delivering the White House to a Democrat for the third election in a row.

Clinton’s 60 percent to 30 percent advantage over Trump with Florida Hispanics overall is fueled by outsized support from voters of Puerto Rican descent, who favor her 71 perccent to 19 percent, according to the survey of 800 likely Hispanic voters jointly conducted for Univision by Republican-leaning Tarrance Group and Democratic-leaning Bendixen & Amandi International.

Trump, meanwhile, has relatively weak backing from Cuban-Americans. They historically vote Republican but only support him over Clinton by 49 percent to 42 percent, the poll shows. And Hispanic voters of other national origins heavily prefer Clinton over Trump by 71 percent to 20 percent. The overall margin of error for the poll is 3.5 points.

“These Florida numbers are not only ominous for Donald Trump — they’re downright terrifying for Republicans nationwide,” said Fernand Amandi, Bendixen & Amandi’s pollster, who called Clinton’s 30-point margin “historic.”

(11-07-2016 12:22 PM)Max Power Wrote:  http://www.politico.com/states/florida/s...ide-107067

Clinton’s 30-point lead in Florida Hispanic poll is ‘terrifying’ to GOP nationwide
By MARC CAPUTO 11/03/16 06:41 PM EDT
Share on Facebook Share on Twitter
MIAMI — Hillary Clinton is besting Donald Trump by an historic 30-point margin among Florida Hispanics, according to a new bipartisan poll that indicates Latinos could play an outsized role in delivering the White House to a Democrat for the third election in a row.

Clinton’s 60 percent to 30 percent advantage over Trump with Florida Hispanics overall is fueled by outsized support from voters of Puerto Rican descent, who favor her 71 perccent to 19 percent, according to the survey of 800 likely Hispanic voters jointly conducted for Univision by Republican-leaning Tarrance Group and Democratic-leaning Bendixen & Amandi International.

Trump, meanwhile, has relatively weak backing from Cuban-Americans. They historically vote Republican but only support him over Clinton by 49 percent to 42 percent, the poll shows. And Hispanic voters of other national origins heavily prefer Clinton over Trump by 71 percent to 20 percent. The overall margin of error for the poll is 3.5 points.

“These Florida numbers are not only ominous for Donald Trump — they’re downright terrifying for Republicans nationwide,” said Fernand Amandi, Bendixen & Amandi’s pollster, who called Clinton’s 30-point margin “historic.”

LOL, paid for by Univision and the "republican leaning" pollster Tarrance Group is on the #nevertrump blacklist.

Quote:Some of the consultants and firms that worked against Trump are industry leaders in their respective fields, including strategist Katie Packer, pollster the Tarrance Group, online fundraiser Campaign Solutions and data vendors TargetPoint and Targeted Victory. Together, the consultants and firms this year have been paid at least $432,000 by the leading anti-Trump super PAC, Our Principles PAC — which pales in comparison to the $16 million their firms have collected over the years from the RNC — according to a POLITICO analysis of Federal Election Commission filings.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/tr...ist-223147

Yeah, I take this one with a grain of salt.

(11-07-2016 11:54 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Actually I think ABC/WaPo was the most accurate in 2012, and IBD/TIPP second. Anyway, Monmouth just released a national poll showing Hillary +6 so I'll add it to my list here. I'll try to update them to my final list here as they come in.

Monmouth: Hillary +6
Bloomberg/Selzer: Hillary +3
New Orleans Times-Picayune: Hillary +5
Fox News: Hillary +4
IBD/TIPP: Trump +2
CBS/NYT: Hillary +4
Rasmussen: Hillary +2
LAT/USC: Trump +5
UPI/CVOTER: Hillary +3
NBC/SurveyMonkey: Hillary +6
Politico/Morning Consult: Hillary +3
NBC/WSJ: Hillary +4
ABC/WaPo: Hillary +4
Boston Herald/RKM: Hillary +3
Reuters/Ipsos: Hillary +4
McClatchy/Marist: Hillary +1
Breitbart/Gravis: Hillary +2
YouGov: Hillary +3
RAND: Hillary +9
Google Consumer Surveys: Hillary +3

The most accurate poll of 2012 was the LaTimes poll and their method of sampling the same 3000 or so people every day.

IBD was Nate's most successful poll, and it has been sliding to Trump.

You're talking about RAND, which is still polling this cycle (see above). Some pollsters from RAND went to start the LAT poll, but they changed the methodology from 2012 in several ways which have been listed here ad nauseum.

Anyway, another pollster-- Angus Reid

Angus Reid Global: Hillary +4
Monmouth: Hillary +6
Bloomberg/Selzer: Hillary +3
New Orleans Times-Picayune: Hillary +5
Fox News: Hillary +4
IBD/TIPP: Trump +2
CBS/NYT: Hillary +4
Rasmussen: Hillary +2
LAT/USC: Trump +5
UPI/CVOTER: Hillary +3
NBC/SurveyMonkey: Hillary +6
Politico/Morning Consult: Hillary +3
NBC/WSJ: Hillary +4
ABC/WaPo: Hillary +4
Boston Herald/RKM: Hillary +3
Reuters/Ipsos: Hillary +4
McClatchy/Marist: Hillary +1
Breitbart/Gravis: Hillary +2
YouGov: Hillary +3
RAND: Hillary +9
Google Consumer Surveys: Hillary +3

Pennsylvania: Trump +2

If he wins PA, that opens up many more paths.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf...Z3TVk/view

You better hope so because FL and NC are leaning blue now.

(11-07-2016 02:45 PM)Max Power Wrote:  You better hope so because FL and NC are leaning blue now.

Have the votes been tallied?

(11-07-2016 02:45 PM)Max Power Wrote:  You better hope so because FL and NC are leaning blue now.

No, they aren't either.

If Trump wins PA, he almost certainly wins MI as well. Both states have almost zero early voting, and both are packed with a demographic that Trump is killing it in.

(11-07-2016 02:45 PM)Max Power Wrote:  You better hope so because FL and NC are leaning blue now.

Link, cause even google says you are lying.

(11-07-2016 03:50 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 02:45 PM)Max Power Wrote:  You better hope so because FL and NC are leaning blue now.

Link, cause even google says you are lying.

He's gone in 24 hours, so he aint concerned about no truth or no link.