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LegacyDuke08 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(08-05-2016 02:31 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  4 cusa opponents.

No way that is a coincedence

Is that a joke or nah?
08-05-2016 03:19 PM
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ODUBB35 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(08-05-2016 02:31 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  4 cusa opponents.

No way that is a coincedence

I only see three, ODU, Rice, and Charlotte.

This is your test to see if you are worthy...
08-05-2016 03:29 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #23
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
original post updated - including picture from twitter @JMUMBasketball

post 2 with other CAA schedules updated too.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2016 04:00 PM by JMU_Degenerate.)
08-05-2016 03:50 PM
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NJDuke97 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
I've always wondered is that Blaine Taylor in that picture?
08-05-2016 03:50 PM
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NJDuke97 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(07-14-2016 03:15 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  11/11 at Old Dominion (Game 1 of 3 game series)
11/13 RICE
11/18 at Montana St
11/21 TEXAS SOUTHERN
11/23 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
11/26 at George Mason (Game 2 of 2 game series)
11/30 at Charlotte (Game 1 of 2 game series)
12/3 at Longwood
12/10 at Western Michigan
12/17 at Appalachian State
12/20 RICHMOND
12/23 UMBC
12/28 EASTERN MENNONITE (D3 - speculation of ongoing series vs EMU or Bridgewater each year)

Final 2015/16 Sagarin Predictor Rankings:
JMU 77.2
ODU 77.1
Rice 64.1
Montana State 66.1
Texas Southern 69.4
Louisiana-Lafayette 75.3
George Mason 69.5
Charlotte 68.8
Longwood 61.9
Western Michigan 70.17
Appalachian State 64.9
Richmond 77.9
UMBC 58.8
Eastern Mennonite - NR

[Image: CpHdqkFWcAA930q.jpg:small]

How do the Sagarin predictor rankings work- scale of 1-100- higher the score the better?
08-05-2016 03:52 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #26
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(08-05-2016 03:52 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  How do the Sagarin predictor rankings work- scale of 1-100- higher the score the better?

Explanation from Sagarin:
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.

In layman speak: Higher numbers are better. You can use the predictor number to compare two teams on a neutral court* and get a rough 'vegas' line. The numbers I provided are obviously based on 2015/16 and are not valid for 2016/17 because of coaching changes, player changes, etc. They do however give you a rough feel for where the teams were at the end of last year. Obviously, there are a million other trends, data points, and statistics to look at before betting your hard earned money on a team, but this is a great starting point.

*to account for home court advantage last year you would have added 3.31 points to the home team's rating and then compared the two teams.

Example: If, at the end of last season, JMU had played Richmond on a neutral court in a postseason tournament, then this metric would support JMU being a 1 pt underdog.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2016 04:23 PM by JMU_Degenerate.)
08-05-2016 04:06 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #27
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(08-05-2016 03:52 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  How do the Sagarin predictor rankings work- scale of 1-100- higher the score the better?

Also, in the final ratings last year the highest rated team in PREDICTOR was Villanova at 93.65 and the lowest was Central Connecticut State at 52.49.

If CCSU had played at Villanova (accounting for 3.31 Home Court) then this metric would suggest that Nova might have been a 44.5 favorite.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2016 04:21 PM by JMU_Degenerate.)
08-05-2016 04:13 PM
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AssyrianDuke Offline
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Post: #28
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
Thanks for the info, Degen! I was wondering that myself. 04-cheers
08-05-2016 04:33 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #29
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(08-05-2016 04:33 PM)AssyrianDuke Wrote:  Thanks for the info, Degen! I was wondering that myself. 04-cheers

04-cheers
08-05-2016 04:42 PM
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CISDuke2014 Offline
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Post: #30
Re: RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(08-05-2016 04:06 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  
(08-05-2016 03:52 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  How do the Sagarin predictor rankings work- scale of 1-100- higher the score the better?

Explanation from Sagarin:
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.

In layman speak: Higher numbers are better. You can use the predictor number to compare two teams on a neutral court* and get a rough 'vegas' line. The numbers I provided are obviously based on 2015/16 and are not valid for 2016/17 because of coaching changes, player changes, etc. They do however give you a rough feel for where the teams were at the end of last year. Obviously, there are a million other trends, data points, and statistics to look at before betting your hard earned money on a team, but this is a great starting point.

*to account for home court advantage last year you would have added 3.31 points to the home team's rating and then compared the two teams.

Example: If, at the end of last season, JMU had played Richmond on a neutral court in a postseason tournament, then this metric would support JMU being a 1 pt underdog.

So basing it off last year's final ratings JMU SHOULD be favorites in every OOC game except the season opener in Norfolk.
08-05-2016 04:56 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #31
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(08-05-2016 04:56 PM)CISDuke2014 Wrote:  So basing it off last year's final ratings JMU SHOULD be favorites in every OOC game except the season opener in Norfolk.

That is correct. If the contests were played at the end of last season and accounting for home field advantage JMU would be favored in every game except for their contest at Old Dominion.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2016 05:07 PM by JMU_Degenerate.)
08-05-2016 05:05 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #32
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
Another thing of note from this schedule is that there aren't any super dangerous road trips where the Dukes have a lot of travel in a short stretch of days. There also aren't any stretches of a lot of games, home or away, in very few days. When JMU does play back-to-back Road games they are at nearby schools. And when they do play multiple games in a short stretch they appear to all be home games. This looks like a very fortuitous schedule for a heavily senior-laden team to prepare for the conference stretch.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2016 05:13 PM by JMU_Degenerate.)
08-05-2016 05:10 PM
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AssyrianDuke Offline
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Post: #33
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(08-05-2016 05:10 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote:  Another thing of note from this schedule is that there aren't any super dangerous road trips where the Dukes have a lot of travel in a short stretch of days. There also aren't any stretches of a lot of games, home or away, in very few days. When JMU does play back-to-back Road games they are at nearby schools. And when they do play multiple games in a short stretch they appear to all be home games. This looks like a very fortuitous schedule for a heavily senior-laden team to prepare for the conference stretch.

We will see what the CAA schedule looks like, but I don't think the conference schedule is too travel intensive. The schedule only makes me more excited for this year's team!!! I know I should temper my optimism, but something makes me think this is going to be a turning point year in JMU Athletics... and for the better!
08-05-2016 08:26 PM
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JMUNation Offline
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Post: #34
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
You are smart to feel this way. Injuries will be the only thing that derails a great sports year at JMU.
08-06-2016 07:16 AM
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NJDuke97 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
The only game on the schedule to me that doesn't make a ton of sense is travelling to Montana State. I guess since they aren't doing a far away exempt tournament its an opportunity for an extended trip with the team and building some camaraderie but that's far to travel for a game against a non P5 school. I'd feel better about it if in exchange Montana State Football was playing at Bridgeforth next year.
08-06-2016 07:41 AM
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BleedingPurple Offline
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Post: #36
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
(08-06-2016 07:41 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  The only game on the schedule to me that doesn't make a ton of sense is travelling to Montana State. I guess since they aren't doing a far away exempt tournament its an opportunity for an extended trip with the team and building some camaraderie but that's far to travel for a game against a non P5 school. I'd feel better about it if in exchange Montana State Football was playing at Bridgeforth next year.

Instinct wants to tell me that this game could be part of a deal to play them in FB. Sometimes AD's do get involved and get creative with combining sports in their agreements. The SMU posters last year said their AD does it. It seems like it was mentioned that UMass has been doing this since becoming independent in FB. "Naw", who am I kidding.
08-06-2016 09:07 AM
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Hart Foundation Offline
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Post: #37
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
There are some nice games with relevant in-state programs ODU, Richmond, George Mason. But it is disappointing to see the Dukes aren't challenging at least one top notch program. A team loaded with seniors is exactly the type of team that knocks off top 25 programs early in the year.

What I heard in coach Rowe's press conference is that we will take on anyone, anywhere.
What I see is that we will have some good in-state games and then a bunch of filler games.
13 OOC games and not one is on the national radar.
More specifically, 7 OOC games on the road and not one is on the national radar.
This schedule is missing a challenge or challenges for the team that would prepare them for high-level post season play.


Of course, this all impacts team and conference rpi ratings.
08-06-2016 09:32 AM
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AssyrianDuke Offline
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Post: #38
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
Is it too early to start planning our take over of the Patriot Center? No, right?
08-06-2016 05:06 PM
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nyduke Offline
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Post: #39
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
I like the schedule, esp. in state games......Looking forward to a solid season. I think our success depends on guard play. If Mc Clean and new guys can handle to ball vs pressure and not force turnovers I really like this team.
08-08-2016 09:22 AM
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Duke Dawg Offline
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Post: #40
RE: MBB Schedule 2016/17
This is a really good schedule.

No p5 teams, but not many dogs either.
08-09-2016 05:35 AM
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